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muppet77

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muppet77 last won the day on August 8 2015

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About muppet77

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 11/02/1977

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  1. Hi all. Does anyone have a copy of the RFO paper from August 2018 to Jan 2019? (Any copy will do, the older the better) You can’t get the older ones online anymore, I have tried Thanks.
  2. So get on the spreads if you can rather than fixed odds as it’s the ethos of the system. More value in my opinion.
  3. Hi. I haven't posted here in a while and it's changed so much since. Wow! I'm really struggling to find historic (old) spread prices for the EPL from spread companies like Sporting Index. If you have any please let me know. It's not the fixed odds HDA I'm after but the supremacy price - by how much a team will beat another or goal difference e.g. Man City v Liverpool may be +0.6 to +0.8 meaning MC are predicted to win by about 0.7 of a goal on average I'd like to back test my new model and wondered if anyone makes EPL predictions each week? If you do id be keen to know what your average absolute error is. So for each prediction work out the absolute error: predict +0.5, final result H won by 2, so error is abs(0.5-2). and average for all games for this season and maybe previous. Anyone know anyone who does match by match differences? Even if you do forecasted scores for each team you can obviously work out the difference. Thanks.
  4. Hi. Try. http://www.football-bet-data.com

    when you download to excel the match goal times are there. 

    1. muppet77

      muppet77

      Sorry just saw your post! 

    2. Dumyat

      Dumyat

      Hi Muppet,

      Thanks. http://www.football-bet-data.com  I have downloaded an example and that should provide the data needed.

      The time data will require a little manipulation to give every goal its own time column but it's going to be a big saver compared to typing in from scratch.

      Yours, Dumyat

       

  5. Hi,

    You might recall we briefly corresponded some time ago when you had your very successful series of corner spread sells.

    I recall a little while ago you were trying to set up a more extensive football database than the ones available at football-data.

    I am interested in particular in goal times - primarily just for English matches would be sufficient to see if can develop any bet ideas. 

    I used to type these in manually from Rothman's yearbooks but life is too short to persist with that idea. I was wondering if you could point me to any website which has goal times as part of their data and is available to download without typing.

    yours in sport,

    Dumyat

     

  6. Wow. Thanks for your time on this Harry. The 100 bet mark looms... We can say he will have a huge yield even if it's just 100 bets and taken 100 Saturdays!
  7. 421 profit staked 22,000 (£20 each of the 1,100 bets?) is a 1.9% yield.
  8. 'Poisson' rather than 'poison'. Very different meanings but I acknowledge your excellent English. I'm a fan of this distribution of tweaked to fit your expectation of the real distribution.
  9. Definitely 0.5 PTs. Not sure on bookie. Is his staking giving a better yield?