Kanga Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system So where was we ? :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Correct David' date=' problem is these sheets don't work as designed, trawling through them to find smaller subsets and using them in a way that Mike didn't design is not very valid and is very dangerous to your money.[/quote'] Not sure I agree withn you on this point. In refining the matches highlighted by the sheets and selecting the best few picks, I would say that this could prove to be the best way to use the sheets... but, hey, what do I know!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Not sure I agree withn you on this point. In refining the matches highlighted by the sheets and selecting the best few picks, I would say that this could prove to be the best way to use the sheets... but, hey, what do I know! You know as much as anyone else David, no one has a monoply on good ideas, and just because a majority think something it doesn't make it right. My current thinking is that these files don't work, because Mike didn't design them with the aim of people chopping the data into such small subsets, the groups of games being used is so small, that it's very difficult for clear trends to emerge. But I'm all for open debate on the subject, and are preapred to be proved wrong. No ego issues here. I think we need to have at least 500 predictions over a period of time to make a reasoned judgement. If you wanted to back test these files for a couple of seasons and leagues, and see how they've done, with these subsets of the predictions (3-0 & 3-1) I'd be very interested to see if they work, and if they give high margin predictions for games other than obvious short priced favs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Fools, It's a good idea to back test any system, any idea how we could do it with this one tho? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Off the top of my head, two options. We get the files for the last couple of years, there were threads on these subjects for the last two year btw. We then go through, and populate them week by week and check the results off agaisnt the average odds. football-data.co.uk has all the info required to do this. Option two, perhaps you want to e-mail Mr Wray and see if he has any data on this subject, unilkely to get a response though, I don't think Mike is really all that into gambling. But he may have week by week historical files. It's going to be very difficult and time consuming to do. My guy feel is that the results will not be good, and unlikely to be worth the effort, but I'd love to see the results if you get them. What we don't uderstand is how mike expresses a confidence factor for his predictions, is it as simple that a 3-0 win is 3 times more likely than a 1-0 prediction ?? I'd guess at some level he is assigning a liklelyhood percentage to each outcome. These could be compared to the implied chance of outcomes from the bookmakers odds, to see the delta. If he is you could try and track value. I worked with these files for a long time, before coming to the conculsion that his prediction engine is deeply flawed. This was based on data sample of data for the English leagues, the yield was negitive. If you search on here somewhere you'll find last years thread, again this had a negitive yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Really don't know how these predictions are generated (and dont want to know tbh), but the main problem with this is odds - if I'm not wrong this spreadsheet doesn't treat odds :unsure Football (or any other) betting is finding value in it's essence, and as long as you dont' treat odds in betting you're doing only small part of the job. That's only my view of course, and I'm handicapped by my own system :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Foolsgold, Just a couple of thoughts I had - If we as individuals were to pick every single match and predict an outcome each week - the chances are we would all show a negative yield - A lot of matches are finely balanced and we would steer clear of them a goal this way or that ......etc etc. My personal feeling is that many or if not all prediction engines would show a negative yield covering all matches for that reason alone - then add in the bookies bias and other factors - it's not easy. What we are doing here is trying to find if this system has a profitable bias or leaning - which means splitting it into smaller subsets - Mike may not have designed this for gambling or places bets himself but to me that doesnt mean it's not a good tool for the purpose - it could be argued that on that basis it's ideal for the purpose. Once that selection is made then we can look for value - find the average bookies odds and use the information to our advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... OK guys, Iv'e had a lot of hard thinking to do in view of the mud and bullets that has been flying around here lately! My first reaction was to walk away and bury my head in the sand, but alas I could find no sand!:lol Iv'e missed one or two threads, but I tend to agree with Kanga on his thoughts, and I can see no reason why this cannot be done.If winners can be found, then there is no earthly reason why the data cannot be split into subsets.Nothing here is written in stone and I don't think it would make one iota of difference to Michael Wray! Also, I think that the general feeling I am getting on this thread is that what makes up MW's prediction engine matters not either.I prefer Kanga's thoughts on this, but will be away to the Lakes from Thursday until Monday, so will be unable to participate until then.Cheers in the meantime!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Selections for this weekend 28th/29th January:- 2-0's Tranmere R (A) Oxford U (A) 3-0's Gillingham ** Watford ** EURO.2-0's Hamburg (A) Stuttgart Osasuna 2-0 Inter Milan (A) Will catch up with you all later.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Selections for this weekend 28th/29th January:- 2-0's Tranmere R (A) Odds with Bet365 2.87 Oxford U (A) 2.62 3-0's Gillingham ** 1.90 Watford ** 1.40 EURO.2-0's Hamburg (A) 2.00 Stuttgart 1.33 Osasuna 1.80 Inter Milan (A) 1.40 Under the published table published by McGinn previously on this thread and selecting those teams where the odds were 1.90 or below,throws out these for special mention:- Gillingham ** 1.90 Watford ** 1.40 Stuttgart 1.33 Osasuna 1.80 Inter Milan 1.40 So will be interesting to see how these fare.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ok, you all know I think this "system" in questionable at best, but with that in mind, I'm going to make a positive suggestion. Rather than slicing & dicing Mikes predictions into small chunks, how about we take every single prediction he makes in the UK & Europe (I assume someone has a full set of upto date files) and lay them all ? As you all know, I think the prediction engine is flawed, amd choping into subsets statiscally invalid. But let's turn that round, and try and use that to our advantage and try and make the negative yield a profit. Also a much larger number of selections will give us a meaningful data set much quickly. Anyone want to post a full set of predictions up here, and we'll see what we get ? Or even backtest this for a few months See i'm not such a bad guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Just popped in before going to Cumbria.Just to say that I prefer going along with Kanga to see just where that avenue leads us.Maybe we need to either have a split method and those who want to travel your route Foolsgold can do exactly that.Those of us who would rather persue Kanga's route can obviously run in tandem.Anyway, I gotta go now, my journey calls, good to see the peace 'reigneth'.Cheers fellas.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... just got back! I see there were no takers for the double avenue. I think it is time to air some more views here on just which way each of us which to persue.Guys are you happy with with the way we have been experimenting in the past, or do you wish to try another method. I will continue on the same lines as I have been doing.But by all means lets have some views on that which you are more comfortable with. I will post the weekends findings later tonight when I have caught up a little. Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... cannot do much flag waving from the weekend results, nothing much to shout about.Two correct from the 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... any thoughts please Gents, there does not appear to be many willing to express some views.I have a couple of further options to add for discussion.In tracking the 2-0's take HOME selections only to eliminate or reduce losses.Secondly, anyone thought about using the predictions for over/under 2.5 goals.Now there's a thought! There's only Foolsgold and myself who have really expressed views,and even we differ in the direction we seek.Come on fellas, let's have these views!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Personally I took Fools suggestion as a positive but also a tongue in cheek suggestion - laying all the selections imho is a lot of work for little reward and there are more efficient lay methods. Some stats I've been accessing over the last 3 weeks are MW - 2+ Goal win Margin 15 selections 11/4 = 73% MW - 1 Goal win Margin 46 Selections 24/22 = 52% I havent tracked the over/under stats My personal take and in the original spirit of the thread is your 2 goal idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system I agree with Kanga that Merlin's 2 goal idea has promise and I think that is probably the best way to utilise the MW sheets. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... well, it's as you say, it seems a long hard road the other way and doubtful if there is anything to be gained for all the work that needs putting in to accomplish such a task.I still think that overall the 3-0's although not representing many weekly bets, seems to be the safest and the best provider up to now, but I see no reason why the 2-0's cannot still be persued also in conjunction with perhaps the Times predictor as you have been experimenting with Kanga.Thanks also for you input David always interesting to know how others think.Keep the input coming!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... still waiting to finalise the Brits selections for this weekend, but meanwhile here are this weekend's 4th/5th February Euro selections as per criteria previously agreed:- 2-0's. Siena. Juventus. Sampdoria. Duisburg. E.Frankfurt. Shalke 04. Barcelona. Getafe. Seville FC. Villarreal. 3-0's ** Fiorentina. Inter Milan. Bayern Munich. Werder Bremen. Real Madrid. The latter bunch of five appear to have a great chance of the win but any thoughts on these would be most welcome.Cheers.Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Personally I took Fools suggestion as a positive but also a tongue in cheek suggestion - laying all the selections imho is a lot of work for little reward and there are more efficient lay methods. you took it correctly, if someone wants to do all the leg work re the updating the sheets, and posting predictions, then I'd be happy to discuss the results. I'm sure the lays will return a profit, if it's more than the over round I don't know. But failing this, I don't really have the time to devote to this, so I'll bid you guys farewell at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... I think that we all took your suggestion as a positive move Foolsgold and a constructive one at that.However I think that the general feeling is that it would take too long and with few willing helpers perhaps due to their own work pressures, looks very much like a dead duck situation. If you find yourself with space, then by all means pop in.Meanwhile we will soldier on looking for productive avenues to persue.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... Selections for this weekend Saturday 4th February:- 2-0's Birmingham C Crystal P Southampton T Brentford Scunthorpe U Carlisle U Northampton T Peterborough U Tottenham H 3-0's ** Newcastle U Coventry C Manchester U Hope you find something of interest here, and thanks for popping in to view.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... as I mooted the other day, I was wondering if there was any leverage in also looking at the Unders 2.5 market within these sheets.Take for example 0-0 and 0-1 MW predictions, these ought to give some leaway where Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin, Looks promising, I had a brief look at >2.5 where 4 goals were predicted and the results weren't so good. But the average goals for all the Uk leagues are 2.44 so Under 2.5 seems the best way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... well I think it's worth a shot Kanga.Nothing ventured, nothing gained they say.Costs nothing to paper trial this for a week or two to see how it performs.Wonder where all the other bodies are,would be great to have some additional views on here.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Merlin, i havnt entered into this thread as yet but have been keeping a close eye on it as last year i actually posted these spreadsheets on the PL. My totally honest thoughts will not be welcomed but its just my opinion. This thread is now 11 pages long and the season is more than half way through and i'm still confused by what you seem to be getting out of these spreadsheets. As far as i can see nothing has been identified as being a possible betting opportunity for the long term. You can play around with figures all you like and make them look good but sometimes you just have to let go and move on to something else. The fact that your on another 'paper trial' on week 24 of the season should tell you something my friend. Best of luck anyway as i'm sure you will carry on regardless but you invited comments and felt the need to express mine. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... thanks Billy for you input.I have noted your comments.I can only say that if it was not for pioneers, a lot of civilisation would remain undeveloped.I was not aware of any time constraints and besides, I see no harm in a small bunch of enthusiasts exploring further avenues in the MW sheets,at worst it may come to a dead end and be buried forever in the archives.Thanks again for your interest.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Okay mate, best of luck with it. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... thanks Billy, will be calling in to your threads to see if there is anything of interest.Be lucky!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 4, 2006 Share Posted February 4, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system 2-0's Birmingham C - LOST Crystal P - WON Southampton T - DRAW Brentford - WON Scunthorpe U - WON Carlisle U - WON Northampton T - WON Peterborough U - WON Tottenham H - WON 7 WINNERS FROM 9 - :) = 77.78% 3-0's ** Newcastle U - WON Coventry C - WON Manchester U - WON 3 WINNERS FROM 3 :) Well, what can I say. These were the matches highlighted for the unders 2.5 market. Leicester/Wolves - 1-0 - WON Chesterfield/Gillingham 1-1 - WON Barnet/Shrewsbury 1-0 - WON Wrexham/Wycombe W 2-0 - WON Tamworth/Southport- POSPONED. 4 WINNERS FROM 4 SELECTIONS - :) NOT A BAD AFTERNOON FOR MR.WRAY'S SHEETS.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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