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Racing Chat - Friday 3rd September


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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Yes? its call bottle and backing your judgement, you can just as easily be as wrong or right with a fav as you can with an outsider.

It depends on the edge and also the size of your bank. If you have a bigger edge at the higher odds then it makes sense betting higher stakes.

However you would need a bigger bank if you were betting at the higher odds.

At 10/1 you could expect a losing run of 66 over 1,000 bets, at 1/1 the losing run would only be 10.

If you had a bank of £1,000 you could risk bets of £99 at 1/1, it would be £15 at 10/1 and £4 at 33/1.

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17 minutes ago, peanut peanut said:

Each to their own ?

As far as losing your bank,  it would surely depend on the size of your bank would it not.

Well, imo one would need a huge betting bank to continually putting £100 to win on outsiders no matter how good one's rating system is.  Anyway, this was not the mainpoint that I was making.  I was actually agreeing with Zilzalian that one should choose the higher priced selections from one's selections.  But when it comes to staking I was trying to be wary of proportional staking in relation to the odds on offer.  If one has a reliable selection method and it throws up selections at e.g 2/1 to say 10/1 then as I have done in the past put £10 on the 2/1 shot and £2 on the 10/1 shot then this may not be right.  The reason for this is that when looks at 1000's of results it may well be approximately true that 10/1 shots come up 9% of the time and 2/1 shots come up 33% of the time.  However, if one has a 10/1 shot flagged up in a good selection process then because it is not being lumped in all the other 10/1 shots then the frequency of winners could well exceed 9% and thus extra staking other than proportional staking could be made so as to enhance profit.  I hope that I have made this clear. 

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8 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Was quite good seeing people's bets but now it's how to become a millionaire, when let's be honest not one of the members on here are beating the bookie

How do you know, do you have access to my bookmakers accounts ?

I've beaten the bookies every year for the last 10 years or so.

Also this thread is called "Racing Chat" - it is not only for posting bets. I find the discussions much more interesting than purely a list of horses that people have bet on, often without any reasoning.

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12 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Find it hard to find people's selections in these daily threads. Think these assumptions might be best in some thread for these discussions. 

 

Was quite good seeing people's bets but now it's how to become a millionaire, when let's be honest not one of the members on here are beating the bookie

Maybe not my place, but there's a phrase that goes along the way of 'get a room', maybe an idea to 'get a thread'. 

That isn't true. It isn't easy, but it is possible to win decent money even if we are not millionaires... yet.

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

 

  I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit. 

 

Only you can know if you are happy with your staking. 

The staking in the quote is similar to what Clive Holt of 'Fineform' put in his books years ago (I have all 3). It worked for him, but personally I stake slightly differently.

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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

 

3.20 Nc Brazen Bolt 2/1                                                     Alt (7) 8/1 & (10) 9/1 (1/2 point win on each)

 

4.55 Nc Dusky Lord 5/6                                                     Alt (7) 7/4 & (2) 14/1

 

1.10 Hd Miramichi 11/4                                                      Alt (2) 3/1 & (3) 9/2

 

1.45 Hd Virtiginous 1/3 DTR                                              No bet

 

1.55 Asc Saga 5/6 DTR                                                     (3) 16/5 & (4) 18/1

 

3.05 Asc Love Is Golden 13/8                                            (1) 11/4 & (4) 5/2

 

3.45 Dwn R Brostleigh 15/8    DTR                                   (3) 15/8 & (7) 11/4

 

4.50 Dwn R Snaffles1/2 DTR                                            No Bet 2/5  & 4/11 with some bookies   

 

6.22 Dwn R Silent Performance 7/2 DTR   ***                   Alt (10) 9/2 & (9) 5/1

 

6.52 Dwn R Dollar Value (5/4)                                         Alt (6) 9/4 & (1) 9/2

RESULTS UPDATE

6 winners for the big 3 but against 13 selections they only made 1.49 points profit = 1.89 points c/fwd

My own alternatives only found 3 winners as against 11 selections = a loss of 6.07 points = -10.55 c/Fwd

My one bet paid off for £2 with a £7.45 profit.  My new balance is £710.44 (Bank £1056.22)

Haven't even glimpsed tomorrows runners yet

 

 

 

 

 

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

 

6.37 Kilb Nere Rock 6/5 DTR                                          Alt (6) 85/40 & (2) 11/4

 

5.45 Km Pavlodar 9/4                                                     Alt (6) 9/4 & (4) 10/3

 

7.15 Km Jumbly 4/5                                                        Alt (2) 2/1 & (3) 12/1

 

*** In the 6.22 at Down Royal I have had £2 to win on Silent Performance at 4.8 = £7.45.  It may be a bit early to write this but I feel that if one can get 3/1plus odds against on these big 3 selections then this could be a profitable bet.  Resourceful Man yesterday & Mother Country the day before drifted to 6/1 from my price of 10/3 on the day are examples.  I will do this for the rest of September using £2 win stakes.  I am becoming more convinced that @Zilzalianis right in as much as, that if one is obtaining a list of selections using the same criteria then back the one(s) at the higher price.  I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit.  However, I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1 shot but  what I am trying to get at is that by reducing the stakes proportionately to the same profit, assuming that the market will in the end balance out 33% chances over 9% chances is not necessarily the best way to bet.  The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.

                        

 

 

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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

How do you know, do you have access to my bookmakers accounts ?

I've beaten the bookies every year for the last 10 years or so.

Also this thread is called "Racing Chat" - it is not only for posting bets. I find the discussions much more interesting than purely a list of horses that people have bet on, often without any reasoning.

Appreciate that, however in the end seems people start having goes at others methods, yeah some maybe trying to help but doesn't sound that way in some instances. 

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12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

How do you know, do you have access to my bookmakers accounts ?

I've beaten the bookies every year for the last 10 years or so.

Also this thread is called "Racing Chat" - it is not only for posting bets. I find the discussions much more interesting than purely a list of horses that people have bet on, often without any reasoning.

can i open a thread for fun tips no explanation to take them away from the chat as long as people keep a p/l daily im happy to mve mine from the chat cheers lee

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14 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm getting a bit fed up with people on here sarcastically insulting me.  You can put £100 on a 10/1, 20/1, 33/1, 50/1 or 100/1 shot in the misguided perception that you will win in the end.  I'm sorry mate you will lose all your betting bank.  Get a grip

sarcasm? no, opinion yes, if not a little advise that you can actually consider or reject, no one is insulting you, just pointing out where u may be going wrong, you put a lot of input into this site and if no one gave you feedback either positive or negative i think you may get a bit frustrated. I backed my opinion up with an actual example last month and if i had done what you suggested (fluid stakes) i would have shown a loss instead of a profit. i bet to my bank and there is nothing different if it was either in pennies or pounds, if u only had a bank of say £20 then the stake would be in pennies. everything i do i check, if i get a loser i try to understand why it lost not where i went wrong. i do this with every horse i back win or lose, one other thing, your bank/theory is losing as proofed on here, mine showed a profit as proofed on here. I am not and never suggested that i don't variate my staking, what i suggested was that for the way i bet the same stake win bets work best and i am not averse (and often do) to upping my stake irrespective of the price of the horse. Try not to take things too personally, @fd1972uk with respect the selections are in the nap of the day thread and the £20 challenge thread. the clue to this thread is in the name "Racing Chat"

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2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

can i open a thread for fun tips no explanation to take them away from the chat as long as people keep a p/l daily im happy to mve mine from the chat cheers lee

I think the chat and the tips are to a certain extent related, members often comment on the tips. Normally the racing chat is predominantly tips anyway, it's only occasionally like yesterday that it gets busy with another topic.

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