Racing Chat - Friday 3rd September

[roger2256]

16.20 Newcastle 

City Vaults 16/1 

Price as of now b365 

18.22 DR Hammersmith 9/1 b365 

Edited September 3, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

3.20 Nc Brazen Bolt 2/1                                                     Alt (7) 8/1 & (10) 9/1 (1/2 point win on each)

4.55 Nc Dusky Lord 5/6                                                     Alt (7) 7/4 & (2) 14/1

1.10 Hd Miramichi 11/4                                                      Alt (2) 3/1 & (3) 9/2

1.45 Hd Virtiginous 1/3 DTR                                              No bet

1.55 Asc Saga 5/6 DTR                                                     (3) 16/5 & (4) 18/1

3.05 Asc Love Is Golden 13/8                                            (1) 11/4 & (4) 5/2

3.45 Dwn R Brostleigh 15/8    DTR                                   (3) 15/8 & (7) 11/4

4.50 Dwn R Snaffles1/2 DTR                                            No Bet 2/5  & 4/11 with some bookies   

6.22 Dwn R Silent Performance 7/2 DTR   ***                   Alt (10) 9/2 & (9) 5/1

6.52 Dwn R Dollar Value (5/4)                                         Alt (6) 9/4 & (1) 9/2

6.37 Kilb Nere Rock 6/5 DTR                                          Alt (6) 85/40 & (2) 11/4

5.45 Km Pavlodar 9/4                                                     Alt (6) 9/4 & (4) 10/3

7.15 Km Jumbly 4/5                                                        Alt (2) 2/1 & (3) 12/1

*** In the 6.22 at Down Royal I have had £2 to win on Silent Performance at 4.8 = £7.45.  It may be a bit early to write this but I feel that if one can get 3/1plus odds against on these big 3 selections then this could be a profitable bet.  Resourceful Man yesterday & Mother Country the day before drifted to 6/1 from my price of 10/3 on the day are examples.  I will do this for the rest of September using £2 win stakes.  I am becoming more convinced that @Zilzalianis right in as much as, that if one is obtaining a list of selections using the same criteria then back the one(s) at the higher price.  I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit.  However, I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1 shot but  what I am trying to get at is that by reducing the stakes proportionately to the same profit, assuming that the market will in the end balance out 33% chances over 9% chances is not necessarily the best way to bet.  The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.

                        

[Wildgarden]

all betfair exchnage sp.

110 haydock camelot tales win

220 haydock regional win and place

340 ascot uncle bryn / ropey guest win only

Edited September 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[MCLARKE]

15 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.

This would only be worth doing if the ROI was better for the higher placed selections. I cannot see any logic for not using proportional stakes.

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

This would only be worth doing if the ROI was better for the higher placed selections. I cannot see any logic for not using proportional stakes.

Whilst it may be true that if one looks at all the 10/1 shots over a long period of time then they may show up as 9% winners and all 2/1 shots they may show up as 33% winners the picture could be very different for one using an advanced selection criteria that excludes most 10/1 shots

[LEE-GRAYS]

hi all 

Newcastle

1.35 twisted dreams 9/4 win 

2.45 strozi 11/4 win 

3.20 nat love 7/1 e/w placed 15/2 bog

Haydock

2.55 koropick 9/1 e/w 

Ascot 

4.10 spirited guest 10/1 e/w 

Pontefract

6.00 enigmatic 7/1 e/w  winner 

7.00 deny knowledge 11/2 e/w placed

7.30 indian sounds 12/1 e/w placed

Kempton 

7.45 the waterman 12/1 e/w 

8.15 fransisco bay 14/1 e/w non runner

Down royal

5.22 Wayne r walker 4/1 win lost

5.52 new society 8/1 e/w 18/1 bog 

6.22 mulgrave 18/1 e/w 

7.22 crackaway 16/1 e/w placed 

Kilbeggan

5.07 rock chica 25/1 e/w 

5.37 milalee 40/1 e/w 

6.07 balgoulah 10/1 e/w 

7.07 dakota beat 4/1 win 

all bets to a 50p stake till further notice but all in all in front for this thread will start to keep a p/l from today g/l lee

Edited September 3, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[LEE-GRAYS]

over the last few moths noticed a lot of good priced horses beig placed or wining after being pulled up or unseating rider i.e a bit of dodgy dealings going on lol will do the big price horses for a couple of week see what happen more than likly e/w/e bet365

4.05 kilbeggan

ballinruddy 40/1 6 places

carry on bubby 30/1 5 places

fix the bill 14/1

4.37

bruineall 35/1 5places 

the other two i have done as my nap and £20 challange horses 

5.07 killbegan roch chica 25/1 5.37 killbeggan mialee 40/1 both e/w

g/l lee

[Wildgarden]

19 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

hi all 

Newcastle

1.35 twisted dreams 9/4 win

2.45 strozi 11/4 win

3.20 nat love 7/1 e/w

Haydock

2.55 koropick 9/1 e/w

Ascot 

4.10 spirited guest 10/1 e/w

Pontefract

6.00 enigmatic 7/1 e/w

7.00 deny knowledge 11/2 e/w

7.30 indian sounds 12/1 e/w

Kempton 

7.45 the waterman 12/1 e/w

8.15 fransisco bay 14/1 e/w

Down royal

5.22 Wayne r walker 4/1 win

5.52 new society 8/1 e/w

6.22 mulgrave 18/1 e/w

7.22 crackaway 16/1 e/w

Kilbeggan

5.07 rock chica 25/1 e/w

5.37 milalee 40/1 e/w

6.07 balgoulah 10/1 e/w

7.07 dakota beat 4/1 win

all bets to a 50p stake till further notice but all in all in front for this thread will start to keep a p/l from today g/l lee

prices come in from even this morning id seriously look at earlier prices i have two of urs.

[Bang on]

September total = + 4.46 pts

Todays selections .. all prices Bet365 (B.O.G.)

1.20 Asc - Khanjar (6/5) ... WON 5-4

3.30 Hay - Improvise (15/8) ... WON 3-1

4.30 Hay - Dreamweaver (13/8) ... WON 9-4

7.15 kemp - Brazilian Beach (7/4) ... lost

7.30 Ponte - King of Stars (6/4) ... WON 7-4

8.45 Kemp - Geremia (6/4) ... WON 6-4

Decent day today, 5 winners from 6 producing +8.75 pts

September running total now = + 13.21 pts

Edited September 3, 2021 by Bang on

[Lanky Lad]

Down Royal 6.22 Silent Performance 100/30

Kempton 6.15 Camarata. 9/2

1 point each way double.

5.07 Kilbeggan. Feel Des Mottes 11/2

5.37 Kilbeggan. Finding Joy 15/2

6.07 Kilbeggan. Trouble And Strife 9/2.

3 x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way treble.

Total Staked 10 points

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

all betfair exchnage sp.

110 haydock camelot tales win unplaced

220 haydock regional win and place won 7.6 / place 4.19

340 ascot uncle bryn won 3.81 / ropey guest win only unplaced

bad start -1 seem to struggle with the 4-5 runner races recently have to look through my records see if dumping them will help. 2/3 in the end and 3/4 including nap for the day ill take it.

profit 11.6 minus commission for above

Edited September 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[azzybear]

edraak 2.20

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Pontefract 5.30

KIT GABRIEL 85/40

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I cannot see any logic for not using proportional stakes.

Although it doesn't feel great when a 1/3 shot loses !

[fd1972uk]

My remaining open bet. 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This would only be worth doing if the ROI was better for the higher placed selections. I cannot see any logic for not using proportional stakes.

I was just doing some month end analysis and wondered what the level stakes profit would have been for my best market (+642 points with a 12% ROI). I was surprised to find that I would have made a small loss to level stakes. Might be something to do with the tailing off of winners at the bigger prices. I could probably make a case for not backing at anything shorter than 6/4 or bigger than 4/1 but once you start breaking the bets up into narrow price bands you're into small sample sizes. 1 winner from 52 bets at odds of 8+ could be a warning sign that I'm tilting at windows in that range.

I'll have to take a closer look over the next few days (a bit of de-duping may be needed for where I had to split my stake across more than one firm).

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

could be a warning sign that I'm tilting at windows in that range.

Or even windmills! 

[Offramp]

I watched the ending of the 16:30 at Haydock. I had money on DREAMWEAVER and that horse was leading or 2nd for most of the 1m 6f. TOM MARQUAND in the seat.

DREAMWEAVER fading badly, back to about 5th with 2f to go. But than DREAMWEAVER storms right through the middle for the last furlong, very impressive.

I think the horse was favourite but I thought it was another fading FAV until it came through.

Worth to watch.

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

 

3.20 Nc Brazen Bolt 2/1                                                     Alt (7) 8/1 & (10) 9/1 (1/2 point win on each)

 

4.55 Nc Dusky Lord 5/6                                                     Alt (7) 7/4 & (2) 14/1

 

1.10 Hd Miramichi 11/4                                                      Alt (2) 3/1 & (3) 9/2

 

1.45 Hd Virtiginous 1/3 DTR                                              No bet

 

1.55 Asc Saga 5/6 DTR                                                     (3) 16/5 & (4) 18/1

 

3.05 Asc Love Is Golden 13/8                                            (1) 11/4 & (4) 5/2

 

3.45 Dwn R Brostleigh 15/8    DTR                                   (3) 15/8 & (7) 11/4

 

4.50 Dwn R Snaffles1/2 DTR                                            No Bet 2/5  & 4/11 with some bookies   

 

6.22 Dwn R Silent Performance 7/2 DTR   ***                   Alt (10) 9/2 & (9) 5/1

 

6.52 Dwn R Dollar Value (5/4)                                         Alt (6) 9/4 & (1) 9/2

 

6.37 Kilb Nere Rock 6/5 DTR                                          Alt (6) 85/40 & (2) 11/4

 

5.45 Km Pavlodar 9/4                                                     Alt (6) 9/4 & (4) 10/3

 

7.15 Km Jumbly 4/5                                                        Alt (2) 2/1 & (3) 12/1

 

*** In the 6.22 at Down Royal I have had £2 to win on Silent Performance at 4.8 = £7.45.  It may be a bit early to write this but I feel that if one can get 3/1plus odds against on these big 3 selections then this could be a profitable bet.  Resourceful Man yesterday & Mother Country the day before drifted to 6/1 from my price of 10/3 on the day are examples.  I will do this for the rest of September using £2 win stakes.  I am becoming more convinced that @Zilzalianis right in as much as, that if one is obtaining a list of selections using the same criteria then back the one(s) at the higher price.  I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit.  However, I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1 shot but  what I am trying to get at is that by reducing the stakes proportionately to the same profit, assuming that the market will in the end balance out 33% chances over 9% chances is not necessarily the best way to bet.  The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.

                        

 

"I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1"

Why not? if you applied your logic to the full list of my horses that I posted last month I wouldn't have made a profit just a loss. Again you seem to miss the blindingly obvious without any basis other than what? perception? With respect, for someone that puts so much effort into what you do, you seem to make consistent errors in failing to look at the whole picture. If you carry on doing things the way you do, you will never prove or more importantly disprove your hypotheses and will continue to lose money as proofed by your bank. Flip your ideas and work the other way ie. the bigger the price the bigger the stake have you tried that? Even with theoretical money, you need to proof your thinking to yourself.

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

over the last few moths noticed a lot of good priced horses beig placed or wining after being pulled up or unseating rider i.e a bit of dodgy dealings going on lol will do the big price horses for a couple of week see what happen more than likly e/w/e bet365

4.05 kilbeggan

ballinruddy 40/1 6 places

carry on bubby 30/1 5 places

fix the bill 14/1

4.37

bruineall 35/1 5places 

the other two i have done as my nap and £20 challange horses 

5.07 killbegan roch chica 25/1 5.37 killbeggan mialee 40/1 both e/w

g/l lee

all lost will keep this to myself for a while lol

[Ironjoe]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

"I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1"

Why not? if you applied your logic to the full list of my horses that I posted last month I wouldn't have made a profit just a loss. Again you seem to miss the blindingly obvious without any basis other than what? perception? With respect, for someone that puts so much effort into what you do, you seem to make consistent errors in failing to look at the whole picture. If you carry on doing things the way you do, you will never prove or more importantly disprove your hypotheses and will continue to lose money as proofed by your bank. Flip your ideas and work the other way ie. the bigger the price the bigger the stake have you tried that? Even with theoretical money, you need to proof your thinking to yourself.

This is my way of working and its worked quite well for me, the bigger the odds the bigger my stakes relative to chance i think it has to win.

[Zilzalian]

26 minutes ago, Ironjoe said:

This is my way of working and its worked quite well for me, the bigger the odds the bigger my stakes relative to chance i think it has to win.

Yes? its call bottle and backing your judgement, you can just as easily be as wrong or right with a fav as you can with an outsider.

[Ironjoe]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Yes? its call bottle and backing your judgement, you can just as easily be as wrong or right with a fav as you can with an outsider.

Yeah if i look through a race and find a stand out horse in my opinion,  if it ends up being a 2/1 shot i may have a tenner on it, if it ends up being a 10/1 ill probably have quite a bit more on it. Not saying thats the right way but just how i do it

[Ironjoe]

The best way to explain my thinking is probably if you think of a coin toss, 50% chance at heads or tails. If you offered me even money on it i may have a fiver bet on heads. If you offered me 10/1 id probably have 50 on heads. If you offered me 100/1 id probably remorgage the house. If you back your judgement then the bigger the price bigger the stake

[harry_rag]

16 minutes ago, Ironjoe said:

The best way to explain my thinking is probably if you think of a coin toss, 50% chance at heads or tails. If you offered me even money on it i may have a fiver bet on heads. If you offered me 10/1 id probably have 50 on heads. If you offered me 100/1 id probably remorgage the house. If you back your judgement then the bigger the price bigger the stake

There's a difference between bigger stakes and bigger value though. In terms of a coin toss then there's sense in ramping up the stake. Take an even money shot, a 10/1 shot and a 100/1 shot, each with a perceived 10% edge, and your logic doesn't make as much sense.

It's probably wise for everyone to review their own betting in terms of how well they'd do with level stakes, level profit, level returns and even escalating stakes. For me, level profit or return (e.g. all bets staked to return a profit or total of 100 points) seems to be the best way. My performance at bigger odds would mitigate against level stakes and escalating stakes would probably wipe out my bank. In truth, most of us probably do one thing and, if we're making a profit, assume it's the best way without really putting it to test. 

[LEE-GRAYS]

7 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

hi all 

Newcastle

1.35 twisted dreams 9/4 win 

2.45 strozi 11/4 win 

3.20 nat love 7/1 e/w placed 15/2 bog

Haydock

2.55 koropick 9/1 e/w 

Ascot 

4.10 spirited guest 10/1 e/w 

Pontefract

6.00 enigmatic 7/1 e/w  winner 

7.00 deny knowledge 11/2 e/w placed

7.30 indian sounds 12/1 e/w placed

Kempton 

7.45 the waterman 12/1 e/w 

8.15 fransisco bay 14/1 e/w non runner

Down royal

5.22 Wayne r walker 4/1 win lost

5.52 new society 8/1 e/w 18/1 bog 

6.22 mulgrave 18/1 e/w 

7.22 crackaway 16/1 e/w placed 

Kilbeggan

5.07 rock chica 25/1 e/w 

5.37 milalee 40/1 e/w 

6.07 balgoulah 10/1 e/w 

7.07 dakota beat 4/1 win 

all bets to a 50p stake till further notice but all in all in front for this thread will start to keep a p/l from today g/l lee

a few places only 1 winner small loss

Out £17 In £15.08 -£1.92 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

"I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1"

Why not? if you applied your logic to the full list of my horses that I posted last month I wouldn't have made a profit just a loss. Again you seem to miss the blindingly obvious without any basis other than what? perception? With respect, for someone that puts so much effort into what you do, you seem to make consistent errors in failing to look at the whole picture. If you carry on doing things the way you do, you will never prove or more importantly disprove your hypotheses and will continue to lose money as proofed by your bank. Flip your ideas and work the other way ie. the bigger the price the bigger the stake have you tried that? Even with theoretical money, you need to proof your thinking to yourself.

I'm getting a bit fed up with people on here sarcastically insulting me.  You can put £100 on a 10/1, 20/1, 33/1, 50/1 or 100/1 shot in the misguided perception that you will win in the end.  I'm sorry mate you will lose all your betting bank.  Get a grip

[Ironjoe]

5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

There's a difference between bigger stakes and bigger value though. In terms of a coin toss then there's sense in ramping up the stake. Take an even money shot, a 10/1 shot and a 100/1 shot, each with a perceived 10% edge, and your logic doesn't make as much sense.

It's probably wise for everyone to review their own betting in terms of how well they'd do with level stakes, level profit, level returns and even escalating stakes. For me, level profit or return (e.g. all bets staked to return a profit or total of 100 points) seems to be the best way. My performance at bigger odds would mitigate against level stakes and escalating stakes would probably wipe out my bank. In truth, most of us probably do one thing and, if we're making a profit, assume it's the best way without really putting it to test. 

It may in hindsight not been the best way to explain (had a long week). But if i rate a race and i find a horse i believe has a 50% chance as a rule if its a bigger price ill have more money on it. 

I have a betting bank but I dont use a points system in my personal betting. I just go with my gut feeling of how confident i am in a horse.

Im not saying my way is right for everyone and im sure there is a more profitable way of doing it its just how i like doing it

[peanut peanut]

26 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

You can put £100 on a 10/1, 20/1, 33/1, 50/1 or 100/1 shot in the misguided perception that you will win in the end.  I'm sorry mate you will lose all your betting bank.  Get a grip

Each to their own ?

As far as losing your bank,  it would surely depend on the size of your bank would it not.

[fd1972uk]

Find it hard to find people's selections in these daily threads. Think these assumptions might be best in some thread for these discussions. 

 

Was quite good seeing people's bets but now it's how to become a millionaire, when let's be honest not one of the members on here are beating the bookie. 

Maybe not my place, but there's a phrase that goes along the way of 'get a room', maybe an idea to 'get a thread'.