Racing Chat - Friday 13th August

[Zilzalian]

Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 =£6.00

320 Newbury               Canonised                  11/1      lost btn 1,1/3l

738 Newmarket           Power of Darkness     10/1     won

355 Newbury               Swayze                        7/1      3rd

617 Pornichet              Akua'Bella                    1/1      won

Prices bet365 at time of posting

returns of £14.00 puts us in profit, Bank now £104.80

Edited August 13, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[alexcaruso808]

I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.

There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1.  It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.  

It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f).  Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.

My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly?  Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?  

I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.

[Zilzalian]

35 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.

There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1.  It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.  

It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f).  Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.

My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly?  Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?  

I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.

Standard practice but you are never privvy as to the reasons of any particular horse, Put it this way you have noticed something so back it anyway because you will feel like a right prat if you dont and it wins at 66/1

[alexcaruso808]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Standard practice but you are never privvy as to the reasons of any particular horse, Put it this way you have noticed something so back it anyway because you will feel like a right prat if you dont and it wins at 66/1

Yes mate, I did a small 25p EW and 50p to win.  You never know, right?  

[alexcaruso808]

Newbury

1.07 - Clitheroe - 9/1 - EW - 2nd - Very close race - just beaten by a small distance.

           Persist - 5/1 - Win - 4th

1.40 - Alvediston - 10/3 - Win 6th

2.10 -  Dubai Poet - 7/1 - EW - 4th

            Educator - 5/1 - Win 12th ?

3.55 -  Super Cub - 7/2 - Win 4th

 

Nottingham

2.25 - Fantasy Master - 7/2 - Win - 2nd

3.00 - Bashkirova - 7/2 - Win 1st ?

3.35 - Goobinator - 11/2 - Win Non-runner.

           Coeur de Lion - 10/1 - EW  Non-runner

 

Thirsk

6.23 - Fergie Time - 66/1 - Win and EW. 14th ?. Very nice 125/1 winner though!! 

7.23 - Tromoso - 5/1 - Win - 8th 

Edited August 13, 2021 by alexcaruso808
Results update

[ipswich45]

First of all let me say im honoured at the comments regarding yesterdays tipping but we will all have good days and bad days so lets see how these get on

Wolves
1300 - 4 Nagasaki Dream     9/2 Bet365  2nd
1510 - 7 Trusty Rusty          4/1 William Hill   WON

Newbury
1410 - 5 Educator              11/2 William Hill  Unplaced
1520 - 6 Canonized            12/1 Paddy Power  Unplaced
1555 - 5 Super Cub             4/1 William Hill  Unplaced

Newmarket
1700 - 1 New Pursuit         11/4 William Hill  Unplaced
1908 - 3 Contingency Fee    7/2 William Hill  WON 9/2

Nottingham
1350 - 6 Boudica Bay           7/2 William Hill  Unplaced
1535 - 9 Roar                       9/2 Bet365  Unplaced

Curragh
1625 - 8 Loveday                  4/1 William Hill  2nd
1800 - 12 Visualisation          6/1 Bet365 Unplaced

US will follow later 

Edited August 13, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[Nigwilliam]

12 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.

There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1.  It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.  

It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f).  Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.

My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly?  Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?  

I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.

Well beaten twice at 7f, so try 6f.

[The Equaliser]

Looked at the big 3/4 media tips where they all match for the afternoon meetings.  I can only find three so far and have to prepare lunch soon so the evening meetings will have to wait

2.35 Wolv Alphonse Le Grande. Currently generously priced at 7/2. I wonder why? Well, Laura Pearson and Ed Dunlop have shocking stats for 2yo races on the All weather; something like 7% and 5% respectively.  This horse may win but it won't be carrying my money

1.15 Nott Serenity.  the horse is ridden by Ceiron Fallon 12% strike rate and in great form at present 6/32 19% and trained by William Haggas who has a 20% strike rate with hos 2yo's.  All looks good for this one but its best price is 4/5.  If it drifts to evens I would quite happily put it into a Trixie

3.00 Nott Diamil Ridden by Rob Hornby (10%) and trained by Ralph Becket (17%).  Its chance is obvious I guess at a best price of 1/2.  However, the race has a few other possibilities so I think only mugs would back it at that price

Very late again today with analysis; hopefully back later with the evening meetings big 3/4 selections. 

More importantly for me I hope to find some decent jockey booking VFM horses to back

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first two have lost which leaves just the 2/5 favourite Diamil for favourite backers to get their cash back.  Not for me though and good luck to anyone who feels like trying to cash in.

Of the evening meetings I could only find one runner tipped by the big 3/4 in unison

8.23 Thirsk Myboymax which has a 6lbs penalty to carry.  According to the ATR expert since it is due to go up 9lbs it is 3lbs well in today. Impressive info eh? so much so I have had 50p to win at 9/4 to gross £1.62 should it run away with the spoils.  Meanwhile I have had £1 to win on Tefnut at 25/1( a more realist chance than Fergie Time for Keith Dalgleish imo)

Still not looked at main jockey/apprentice bets yet.  Slow as a tortoise today ?

3.20 Nb Attagirl £1 win at 14/1 & 50p win on Delmona at 2/1

Damn, I missed the OM horse and mine got beaten a head

3.35 Not Stargazer £1 win at 14/1

3.55 Nb Swayze (TM) £4 win at 6.6 = £21.95.  Had £1 win on Super cub at 6/1 as a saver

4.30 Nb Walhaan (JD) £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 profit if it wins 

Definitely off for a break now

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by The Equaliser
UPDATE

[CocoPopsDad]

I do like the look of Silk Tie in the 13:00 at Wolverhampton. Drops down in grade. Jockey takes a bit off. Thought it'd be a little shorter than the 6/1 available.

[The Equaliser]

49 minutes ago, Nigwilliam said:

Well beaten twice at 7f, so try 6f.

Fergie Time can suck someone else's toes, not mine ?

[MCLARKE]

16 minutes ago, CocoPopsDad said:

I do like the look of Silk Tie in the 13:00 at Wolverhampton. Drops down in grade. Jockey takes a bit off. Thought it'd be a little shorter than the 6/1 available.

Welome to PL @CocoPopsDad

[Offramp]

I'm having another go at an each way Canadian. Only £2.60. These 5 races will all be over in 45 minutes, 13:00 to 13:45.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Offramp

[roger2256]

August  -9

1pt level stakes win only 

18.23 Thi Westmorian 25/1

20.00 Cur Sors 14/1 

Prices as of now b365 

13.50 Not Glen Rosa 25/1 b365

Edited August 13, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[Nigwilliam]

1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:

Well beaten twice at 7f, so try 6f.

Sire had 7 runs at 1m with 5 wins.

Dam had 6 runs at 1m -1m5f with 1 win at 1m3 1/2f.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Thirsk 5.35

TUSCAN 6/5

 

[ipswich45]

1 hour ago, CocoPopsDad said:

I do like the look of Silk Tie in the 13:00 at Wolverhampton. Drops down in grade. Jockey takes a bit off. Thought it'd be a little shorter than the 6/1 available.

good shout that   just got the better of my selection 

[CocoPopsDad]

1 minute ago, ipswich45 said:

good shout that   just got the better of my selection 

? Didn't look in the best of shape when it was travelling, decided to get going round the final turn and into the straight though.

[The Equaliser]

51 minutes ago, Nigwilliam said:

Sire had 7 runs at 1m with 5 wins.

Dam had 6 runs at 1m -1m5f with 1 win at 1m3 1/2f.

Yeah, I reckon it could win going away, the trouble is I can't find a decent enough donkey race in which to enter it

 

[Offramp]

1 hour ago, Offramp said:

I'm having another go at an each way Canadian. Only £2.60. These 5 races will all be over in 45 minutes, 13:00 to 13:45.

 

Blimey. Nothing worth mentioning. 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Offramp

[alexcaruso808]

Who had Island Bandit in the 1.40 at Newbury. 125/1!!!   ??

Edited August 13, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:

Sire had 7 runs at 1m with 5 wins.

Dam had 6 runs at 1m -1m5f with 1 win at 1m3 1/2f.

Hi N, just wondering where you got the above stats from?  I can't see it on ATR os SL and the RP wants a subscription fee to view its pedigree

 

[azzybear]

babindi 4.10

[azzybear]

harmony rose 4.25

[oburro]

Hydros

Newmarket tonight

[Offramp]

I took my 13p to the corner shop and bought two blackjacks and 2 fruit salads.

[cannotbebeat]

7.23 Thirsk Tromso 5/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Thirsk 5.35

TUSCAN 6/5

Won BSP 1.94.

31 / 90, lsp 26.06.

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looked at the big 3/4 media tips where they all match for the afternoon meetings.  I can only find three so far and have to prepare lunch soon so the evening meetings will have to wait

2.35 Wolv Alphonse Le Grande. Currently generously priced at 7/2. I wonder why? Well, Laura Pearson and Ed Dunlop have shocking stats for 2yo races on the All weather; something like 7% and 5% respectively.  This horse may win but it won't be carrying my money

1.15 Nott Serenity.  the horse is ridden by Ceiron Fallon 12% strike rate and in great form at present 6/32 19% and trained by William Haggas who has a 20% strike rate with hos 2yo's.  All looks good for this one but its best price is 4/5.  If it drifts to evens I would quite happily put it into a Trixie

3.00 Nott Diamil Ridden by Rob Hornby (10%) and trained by Ralph Becket (17%).  Its chance is obvious I guess at a best price of 1/2.  However, the race has a few other possibilities so I think only mugs would back it at that price

Very late again today with analysis; hopefully back later with the evening meetings big 3/4 selections. 

More importantly for me I hope to find some decent jockey booking VFM horses to back

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first two have lost which leaves just the 2/5 favourite Diamil for favourite backers to get their cash back.  Not for me though and good luck to anyone who feels like trying to cash in.

Of the evening meetings I could only find one runner tipped by the big 3/4 in unison

8.23 Thirsk Myboymax which has a 6lbs penalty to carry.  According to the ATR expert since it is due to go up 9lbs it is 3lbs well in today. Impressive info eh? so much so I have had 50p to win at 9/4 to gross £1.62 should it run away with the spoils.  Meanwhile I have had £1 to win on Tefnut at 25/1( a more realist chance than Fergie Time for Keith Dalgleish imo)

Still not looked at main jockey/apprentice bets yet.  Slow as a tortoise today ?

3.20 Nb Attagirl £1 win at 14/1 & 50p win on Delmona at 2/1

Damn, I missed the OM horse and mine got beaten a head

3.35 Not Stargazer £1 win at 14/1

3.55 Nb Swayze (TM) £4 win at 6.6 = £21.95.  Had £1 win on Super cub at 6/1 as a saver

4.30 Nb Walhaan (JD) £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 profit if it wins 

Definitely off for a break now

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners but came close with Attagirl beaten by a head.  I had a cover bet on the favourite but of course Oisin Murphy (the champ) beat me.  Forgot to have a cover bet on OM's horse in the 3.55 too where Swayzee got beat.  Loss on the day was £11.00 which drags my balance back to £699.49 (Bank £1056.22)

Most startling news of the day was that all 4 of the big 3/4 media tips in unison lost including a 2/5 favourite.  I wonder how much cash went to money heaven  from ardent followers of the main sporting press websites?

Loads of class racing tomorrow as it's a Saturday, let's hope that @The Brigadiercan find some winners for PL members