Racing Chat - Thursday 21st January

[ipswich45]

Meeting of the day you could argue is Meydan which ill touch up at the bottom

Lingfield
1230 - 11 Percy Prosecco   10/1 Paddy Power
1300 - 4 Space Kid    9/2 Bet365
1330 - 4 Subliminal  9/4 Bet365
1400 - 1 Gulliver   7/2 Bet365
1600 - 1 Storm Melody  4/1 William Hill

Ludlow - Subject to inspection
1340 - 7 Mountain Leopard  4/1 Bet365
1410 - 7 Faustinovick   11/4 William Hill
1510 - 8 Fact Flow  7/1 Paddy Power

Newcastle
1630 - 7 Nine Elms  15/2 Bet365
1730 - 2 Captain Cooper  5/2 Bet365
1800 - 2 Nordic Fire  5/1 Bet365  (Nap)
1830 - 3 Elusive Treat  4/1 William Hill
1930 - 1 El Hombre   4/1 William Hill

Wincanton
1420 - 2 Brinkley    7/2 William Hill
1550 - 4 Nearly Perfect  4/1 Bet365

Pau 
1055 - 3 Feeling Fast  7/2 Bet365
1155 - 8 Hillico  7/1 Bet365
1305 - 6 Polisud   5/1 Bet365

Meydan
1430 - 1 Important Mission  9/2 Paddy Power
1505 - 1 Communique  7/1 Bet365
1615 - 10 Kinross  10/1 Bet365
1650 - 10 Thegreatcollection  13/2 Paddy Power
1800 - 2 Equilateral   3/1 Bet365

Meydan today sees some really decent horses today below are some of the possible highlights
1505 - Communique, Ispolini, Desert Fire
1615 - Bless Him (won last week Newcastle), Lord Glitters, Kinross, Military March
1800 - Equilateral, Caspian Prince, Acclaim The Nation, Dream Today

[DanV89]

12.30 Lingfield

He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Giga White @ 18/1

1.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w Frankly Mr Shankly @ 12/1

1.20 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Tommie Beau @ 33/1

1.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Fume @ 8/1

2.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w The Dubai Way @ 17/2

2.20 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Summer Name @ 8/1

2.30 Lingfield - 2pts win Zooma @ 7/1

3.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w The Toojumpa @ 14/1

[Striker]

Good luck today

4.00 Lingfield-Passing Nod @ 100-30  Bet 365

Mentioned the other day how much I rated his jockey. and the 7-1 yesterday was too tempting to ignore

[alancraik]

Nothing from me today, thought all meeting would be abandoned due to weather.

I will post up my database selections

[alancraik]

Database selections below.

These come with a weaith warning no idea how they will perform. All to small stakes win only.

My Systems (2) 1.00 Lingfield 5 Swinton Noon Ladd, Theodore Appleby, M 16/1 ??
My Systems (2) 2.10 Ludlow 1 Enzo DAiry (FR) Deutsch, Charlie Williams, Miss Venetia 5/2 ??
My Systems (2) 2.40 Ludlow 5 Eleanor Bob Deutsch, Charlie Williams, Miss Venetia 16/1 ??
My Systems (2) 2.40 Ludlow 1 Robin Gold (IRE) Andrews, Bridget Skelton, Daniel 7/2 ??
My Systems (2) 2.20 Wincanton 5 Neachells Bridge (IRE) Dunne, R T Mulholland, N P 5/1 ??
My Systems (2) 3.20 Wincanton 5 Kloud Gate (FR) Moore, Jamie Moore, G L 9/1 ??
My Systems (2) 3.50 Wincanton 10 Gleno (IRE) Moore, Joshua Moore, G L 8/1 ??
My Systems (3) 2021 B 3.50 Wincanton 10 Gleno (IRE) Moore, Joshua Moore, G L 8/1 ??
My Systems (7) HRB 4 5.00 Newcastle 1 Jack Of Trades (IRE) Mitchell, Jack Crisford, Simon Evens ??
My Systems (7) HRB 4 6.30 Newcastle 2 Caribbean Sunset (IRE) Mitchell, Jack Crisford, Simon 5/2 ??
My Systems (9) HRB 6 7.30 Newcastle 1 El Hombre Rawlinson, Ali Loughnane, Daniel Mark 11/2 ??

[roger2256]

Jan +22.5

1pt level stakes win only 

14.00 Lin Tadleel 14/1 Lost

14.20 Win Jabulani 9/1 Lost

15.50 Win Limited Reserves 14/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

-3

Jan + 19.5 

Edited January 21, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[LEE-GRAYS]

A few outsiders 

12.30 lingfield percy Prosecco 12/1

13.00 lingfield swinton noon 8/1 3placeswins bit sick went out to 33/1 but took ewe so hayho winners a winner

13.30 lingfield fume 17/2

15.00 lingfield spirituoso 35/1 3placesplaced

16.00 lingfield hard solution 16/1

13.10 Ludlow lime drop 30/1 5plac

14.10 Ludlow golden whisky 7/1winner

14.40 Ludlow Eleanor Bob 15/1

15.10 Ludlow rock on Aussie 18/1

15.40 Ludlow ange des malberaux 20/1

13.20 wincanton the widdow maker 9/1placed

13.50 wincanton anywayyoulookatit 12/1

14.20 wincanton jabulani 15/2

14.50 wincanton baignard 12/1

15.50 wincanton one of us 20/1 4places

16.40 Newcastle mo Henry 16/1

17.30 Newcastle royal heart 10/1

18.00 Newcastle strawberryandcream 22/1 4places

19.00 Newcastle lucky lodge 7/1

19.30 Newcastle klopp 10/1

13.30 pau roselane 30/1 4places

14.05 pau get’um grayce 20/1 4places

all bets 50p e/w bet365 

Edited January 21, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[The Equaliser]

Let's have another go today

1.10 Lud Balleticon £5.45 win at 3.65 = Poss profit of £10.09 & £4.15 win at 5.10 on Calico = poss profit of £11.33 = £9.60 loss if either fails to win.

couldn't find many opportunities when i looked last night.  The alternative was a larger stake on cramped odds selections, so I am hoping that dutching the above will produce at least a £10 profit

 

 

[DanV89]

2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

12.30 Lingfield

He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

Ran well for a long way but faded tamely late on. 

[kroni]

having a go a Meydan today all each-way bets

Desert Doctor @ 14/1 Meydan 14:30 - betfair placed

Away He Goes @ 14/1 Meydan 15:05 - Hills placed

Halimi @ 25/1 Meydan 15:05 = betfair placed

Good Effort @ 13/2 Meydan 15:40 -bet365

Art Du Val @ 25/1 Meydan 16:15 - bet365

Mythical Magic @ 20/1 Meydan 16:15 - bet365

Emblem Storm @ 18/1 Meydan 16:50 - betvictor

Land Of Legends @ 10/1 Meydan 17:25 - bet365 won

Final Song @ 10/1 Meydan 17:25 - bet365

Dream Today @ 12/1 Meydan 18:00 bet365

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by kroni
results

[ipswich45]

perfectly timed run by Lord Glitters in the 1615 at Meydan at 8/1

[Striker]

6 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck today

4.00 Lingfield-Passing Nod @ 100-30  Bet 365

Mentioned the other day how much I rated his jockey. and the 7-1 yesterday was too tempting to ignore

Big drifter and unplaced

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The alternative was a larger stake on cramped odds selections, so I am hoping that dutching the above will produce at least a £10 profit

Well done with Calico although I still can't back more than 1 horse in a race.

[The Brigadier]

7 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck today

4.00 Lingfield-Passing Nod @ 100-30  Bet 365

Mentioned the other day how much I rated his jockey. and the 7-1 yesterday was too tempting to ignore

Think he's a jockey to follow - based with John Gosden no less.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Well done with Calico although I still can't back more than 1 horse in a race.

I think that times are tough even with the graded racing.  Look what happened to Malhoob at 4/11 in the 5.30 race at Newcastle, beaten into 3rd over 8 lengths adrift of the winner!  I sometimes have just an insurance bet just to cover stakes on my second choice and try to take all the profit on the first choice.  I reckon up to three horses in a handicap could be covered for either equal profit or just taking profit on the expected winner and a cover bet on the other two.  I don't have a problem with your view about only backing one horse but I'm just trying to score a few points for the home team i.e. me.  What a pity I didn't put Calico as the Nap today instead of the heavily backed Balleticon 9/4 into 5/4.  One day I will make sense of all this stuff. ?  

[LEE-GRAYS]

8 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

A few outsiders 

12.30 lingfield percy Prosecco 12/1

13.00 lingfield swinton noon 8/1 3placeswins bit sick went out to 33/1 but took ewe so hayho winners a winner

13.30 lingfield fume 17/2

15.00 lingfield spirituoso 35/1 3placesplaced

16.00 lingfield hard solution 16/1

13.10 Ludlow lime drop 30/1 5plac

14.10 Ludlow golden whisky 7/1winner

14.40 Ludlow Eleanor Bob 15/1

15.10 Ludlow rock on Aussie 18/1

15.40 Ludlow ange des malberaux 20/1

13.20 wincanton the widdow maker 9/1placed

13.50 wincanton anywayyoulookatit 12/1

14.20 wincanton jabulani 15/2

14.50 wincanton baignard 12/1

15.50 wincanton one of us 20/1 4places

16.40 Newcastle mo Henry 16/1

17.30 Newcastle royal heart 10/1

18.00 Newcastle strawberryandcream 22/1 4places

19.00 Newcastle lucky lodge 7/1

19.30 Newcastle klopp 10/1

13.30 pau roselane 30/1 4places

14.05 pau get’um grayce 20/1 4places

all bets 50p e/w bet365 

good start sick about swinton noon but thts the price you pay if you do each way extra

out £22

in £17.58

[MCLARKE]

That's why I wouldn't back in this market, BOG makes all the difference to my returns, today's nap was an example, backed at 7/2 but returned at 7/1.

[The Equaliser]

That was a lovely win/return.  I only bet with Befair Exchange/Sportsbook and Bet 365.  My stakes are not high enough so as to warrant opening up loads of bookmakers accounts.

The strategy I outlined is just one of the tools available to us punters in an effort to make some money.  Funny enough this was outlined in a paper by Phil Bull back in about 1942 The Mathematics of betting.  Whilst one may not feel it worthwhile for my sort of total stakes of about £10 on a race, consider a member on the Forum who may be playing £100 on either a big handicap on a Saturday or graded race.  It seems sensible to me to make provision for one or two dangers that surely exist

 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Let's have another go today

1.10 Lud Balleticon £5.45 win at 3.65 = Poss profit of £10.09 & £4.15 win at 5.10 on Calico = poss profit of £11.33 = £9.60 loss if either fails to win.

couldn't find many opportunities when i looked last night.  The alternative was a larger stake on cramped odds selections, so I am hoping that dutching the above will produce at least a £10 profit

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Fortunately, Calico, my second choice won at 5/1.  Balleticon was backed into 5/4 favourite from a 9/4 price.  Looked like I got value for my money didn't it? But where's the value when a horse gets slammed by 10.5 lengths into 4th place?  Anyway at least i have retrieved a bit of profit now and my balance is no £532.86 (£500 Bank)

4 hours ago, Striker said:

Big drifter and unplaced

What about Owhataniight in the 4.45 at Chelmsford tomorrow, it is favourite atm and the possibilty that Show Me A Sunset could overturn the odds on hotpot in the 5.45 at 7/2?  

[Striker]

yes two good chances, like the Fanshawe horse best as he has close ties with the stable [dad works there]

[Striker]

Nice ride by Benoit to Win on Show Me A Sunset, and good interview afterwards when he confirmed his dad who is now a top work rider got him the ride...