Racing Chat - Saturday 16th Jan

[The Brigadier]

It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order. 

1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position. 

NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills

 

2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle

A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6^th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader. 

EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365

 

2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer. 

OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365

 

2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle

This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2^nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now. 

ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365 

 

3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase

A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender). 

NOTACHANCE 1 point each way  9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234

 

3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race

The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s. 

EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor

 

3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9^th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today. 

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234 

 

[calva decoy]

It doesn't look great & with an 8am inspection at Market Rasen .

I've a feeling if there's lying snow but milder weather coming in they'll be more than one to keep us hanging on !

[Tedthewolf]

I will cover four races today.

12.40 Warwick-PASLEY  7/1 e/w  bog bet365  Not done alot since coming over from patrick O'Brien stable but tottaly different ground conditions today  i think we wlll see  a much better run today   for the O'neil team.

1.40 Fairyhouse-SPACE GADET 20/1 e/w 4p bog betfair This horse did me a big favour lto over the bigger obsticles  winning the Ulster national, may have that as main target again this year  but i  just think  off this mark over hurdles  and at big price its worth an e/w punt imo.

3.00  Warwick-Captain Chaos  has been well backed earlier in the week from big prices  went in to as low as 4/1 in places  now starting to drift out  could starr 8/1 or more  if it did would be e/w  steal imo with as many as 5 places up for gabs with a few bookies stays on its feet shouldnt be far away, but i will stick with a couple of double figure priced horses  DJANGO DJANGO 10/1 corals  4place bog & last years 3rd and 40/1 outsider  should outrun those silly odds PETITE POWER   you can get 4 places  bog or 5places not bog,

3.35 Warwick- Very hard open race gone for a bit of e/w value  on 20/1 shot TOBEFAIR 4places bog.

 

Best of luck all and stay safe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

11.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Enmeshing @ 12/1

12.20 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Silver Tassie @ 25/1

1.15 Warwick - 1pt e/w Destrier @ 14/1

1.25 Lingfield - 2pts win Fox Power @ 4/1

2.25 Warwick - 1pt win Adrimel @ 7/1

3.00 Warwick - 1pt e/w Walk in the Mill @ 22/1

3.10 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Count Otto @ 15/2

[alancraik]

todays top rated selections


WARWICK 13:15 Sky Pirate 5/4 win

MARKET RASEN 14:05 Oscars Leader 7/4

MARKET RASEN 14:40 On The Blind Side 11/8

WARWICK 15:00 Captain Chaos 13/2 e/w 4 Places

WARWICK 15:35 Flemcara 8/1 4 Places

[Zilzalian]

Just An Observation From This Quarter
3:50 Meydan a very ordinary open age handicap where all the runners are as bad or as good as each other depending on your viewpoint

Here is the observation. 14 runners so lets for the sake of argument say each runner should be 14/1. so cross out any that are less than 14/1, (as bad value) takes out 8 runners

Leaves 6 runners to choose from. of those 6, only 4 have won over the distance no course winners. only 2 have had a recent run. Almushref and Graffiti Master. both have only ever won 1 race almushref being the only one that has won on turf although Graffiti Master when trained by J Gosden finished 3rd to Kew Gardens in a listed turf race. so there you have it. last night I backed Graffiti Artist was 25/1 (now 16's) The reason.. Well it had a warm up over a too short 7f now back up to 1m2f and is drawn better than almushref. add on a little RFC.

Well there's the theory so lets see what happens.

[LEE-GRAYS]

 

12.15 lingfield contigency fee 7/1winner

12.50 lingfield wannabe Betsy 8/1 3places

14.35 lingfield holy tiber 12/1

15.10 lingfield kondrativ wave 12/1

12.20 market rasen agamemmon 10/1 5places placed 5th

13.30 market rasen in the detail 8/1

14.40 market rasen looking well 22/1 4plces

15.15 market rasen miss lamb 28/1 3places

15.50 market rasen knocknamona 8/1

12.40 Warwick Memphis bleek 13/2

13.15 Warwick destrier 12/1 3places

14.25 Warwick lord of kerak 10/1

15.00 Warwick Didero vallis 25/1

15.35 Warwick the captains inn 22/1 4places

12.30 fairyhouse Mullins cross 45/1 5places

13.05 fairyhouse tisadream 20/1 4places

13.40 fairyhouse walk to freedom 30/1 4place

14.15 fairyhouse pint Avon 13/2

16.15 kempton farhh sighted 22/1

17.50 kempton new look 12/1 4places

19.50 kempton foreshore 28/1

20.20 kempton chasel 9/1 

12.05 chantily vienna wood 10/1

13-15 chantily drogo12/1

13.50 chantily dungannnon 10/1

14.32 chantilly neufalacote 28/1 5places

15.07 chantily revoltosa 12/1

 

all bets 50p e/w bet365 ????

Edited January 16, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS
Add french

[roger2256]

Jan +43

1pt level stakes win only 

12.40 War The Garrison 20/1 Lost

14.00 Lin Rhythm Scheme  16/1Lost

14.25 War Make Me a Believer 11/2 Lost

*14.35 Lin Your Choice 33/1 Lost

15.00 War Petite Power 50/1 Lost

15.10 Lin Sun Power 4/1Lost

Prices as of now b365 

A note of caution to anyone following, yesterday was a good day , it's been a good month so far but beware , 25/30+ losing runs is not uncommon. 

-6

Jan +37

Edited January 16, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[black rabbit]

Walk in The Mill   3 00 warwick  1pt win   28/1 betfair

[kroni]

going to try couple of lucky 15s today

win lucky 15 Bet365

Amoola Gold @ 9/4 Warwick 13:15

Oscars Leader @ 6/4 Market Rasen 14:05

On The Blind Side @ 11/8 Market Rasen 14:40

Merry Mistress @ 10/3 Market Rasen 15:15

 

e-w lucky 15 Betfred

Front View @ 7/1 Fairyhouse 14:15

Adrimel @ 13/2 Warwick 14:25

Storm Control @ 15/2 Warwick 15:00

Potters Corner @ 10/1 Warwick 15:35

 

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

Difficult day and I have to be brief.

2.40 M/R On The Blind Side.  11/8 when I last looked.  Only has had an 8 day break after a tough race last week.  Don't like to commit any money on Heavy going either

3.15 M/R Too tight between the top two in the betting to call.  Merry Mistress isn't out of it either.  I'll pass

1.50 War It is possible that Fiddler On the Roof could beat Next Destination but I'm not betting on either

2.25 War Make Me A Believer I havd had a small wager of £2.30 at 11/2 = poss return of £14.95.  Lots of competition but is top rated with Timeform and RPR

3.35 War Too many with chances in this race so I'll pass

4.05 War Gold Bullion 11/8 but has no proven form.  Not for me

4.15 Km Global Acclaim 5/4.  7lbs penalty. now racing over 7f instead of 6f (supposed to be better for the extra yardage; I'll let someone else put their faith in that one)

4.45 Km Bint Al Anood.  John Gosden horse with at least 2 main competitors so I'll pass at 5/4

5.15 Km Stiletto.  Another John Gosden horse with potential.  And again at least two others who could come and win.  13/8 not a great price so I'll pass on this one too, even though JG did win the same race last year

Only £2.30 risked today so far and I can't even find a Nap selection thus far

Good luck to all.  There should be some exciting racing to watch in any event

 

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Difficult day and I have to be brief.

2.40 M/R On The Blind Side.  11/8 when I last looked.  Only has had an 8 day break after a tough race last week.  Don't like to commit any money on Heavy going either

3.15 M/R Too tight between the top two in the betting to call.  Merry Mistress isn't out of it either.  I'll pass

1.50 War It is possible that Fiddler On the Roof could beat Next Destination but I'm not betting on either

2.25 War Make Me A Believer I havd had a small wager of £2.30 at 11/2 = poss return of £14.95.  Lots of competition but is top rated with Timeform and RPR

3.35 War Too many with chances in this race so I'll pass

4.05 War Gold Bullion 11/8 but has no proven form.  Not for me

4.15 Km Global Acclaim 5/4.  7lbs penalty. now racing over 7f instead of 6f (supposed to be better for the extra yardage; I'll let someone else put their faith in that one)

4.45 Km Bint Al Anood.  John Gosden horse with at least 2 main competitors so I'll pass at 5/4

5.15 Km Stiletto.  Another John Gosden horse with potential.  And again at least two others who could come and win.  13/8 not a great price so I'll pass on this one too, even though JG did win the same race last year

Only £2.30 risked today so far and I can't even find a Nap selection thus far

Good luck to all.  There should be some exciting racing to watch in any event

 

 

 

 

Changed my mind on the 3.15 at M/Rasen I am having £6.20 win at 7/4 on Grangee = possible return of £17.05.  Also having a small saver bet of £2 at 5.5 = a possible return of £8.82 on Merry Mistress.  The market is very strong for the top Timeform rated Eileendover.  I will not be gutted if this horse wins but I think that there are stamina doubts about it and Willie Mullins is nobody's fool

 

[The Equaliser]

On 1/15/2021 at 12:48 PM, The Brigadier said:

It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order. 

1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position. 

NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills

 

2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle

A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6^th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader. 

EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365

 

2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer. 

OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365

 

2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle

This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2^nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now. 

ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365 

 

3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase

A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender). 

NOTACHANCE 1 point each way  9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234

 

3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race

The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s. 

EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor

 

3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9^th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today. 

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234 

 

Fantastic tipping on your part today. Very well done.  I just hope you are not right in the 3.15 at M/R as I have backed Grangee for my naps selection today. Try not to mop up everywhere, I beg you

[The Equaliser]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Fantastic tipping on your part today. Very well done.  I just hope you are not right in the 3.15 at M/R as I have backed Grangee for my naps selection today. Try not to mop up everywhere, I beg you

 

£1.50 win on Flemcara at 8/1 3.35 Warwick (now running)

 

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Just An Observation From This Quarter
3:50 Meydan a very ordinary open age handicap where all the runners are as bad or as good as each other depending on your viewpoint

Here is the observation. 14 runners so lets for the sake of argument say each runner should be 14/1. so cross out any that are less than 14/1, (as bad value) takes out 8 runners

Leaves 6 runners to choose from. of those 6, only 4 have won over the distance no course winners. only 2 have had a recent run. Almushref and Graffiti Master. both have only ever won 1 race almushref being the only one that has won on turf although Graffiti Master when trained by J Gosden finished 3rd to Kew Gardens in a listed turf race. so there you have it. last night I backed Graffiti Artist was 25/1 (now 16's) The reason.. Well it had a warm up over a too short 7f now back up to 1m2f and is drawn better than almushref. add on a little RFC.

Well there's the theory so lets see what happens.

Bloody thing fell out of the stalls ruining any chance it had but that's racing for you.

[skylark2009]

Running total (-36.07pts)

 

Three bets for me today.

 

Kempton 4.15 - Global Acclaim 5pts @ 6/5 B365

Kempton 6.20 - Uncle Dick 3pts @ 5/2 B365

Double (Global Acclaim/Uncle Dick) 1.5pts E/w @ 6.71 B365

 

Global Acclaim looks to have a very good chance to follow up here in this fairly looking weak contest. The extra furlong may play into his hands after his initial win here last year.

Uncle Dick looks to be another capable of following up imo. Discomatic looks the threat here though. Looks to be a fairly even tempered line up looking at the odds available with four closely matched /rated horses, but Uncle Dick's win LTO may be help here.

 

Total outlay (-11pts)

[The Brigadier]

On 1/15/2021 at 12:48 PM, The Brigadier said:

It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order. 

1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position. 

NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills

 

2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle

A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6^th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader. 

EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365

 

2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer. 

OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365

 

2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle

This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2^nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now. 

ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365 

 

3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase

A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender). 

NOTACHANCE 1 point each way  9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234

 

3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race

The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s. 

EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor

 

3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9^th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today. 

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234 

 

6 out of 7 happy enough with that !!

 

[Villa Chris]

Well done mate. 

[calva decoy]

15 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

6 out of 7 happy enough with that !!

 

Well done ??????

What's tonight's lotto numbers again ?

[skylark2009]

2 hours ago, skylark2009 said:

Running total (-36.07pts)

 

Three bets for me today.

 

Kempton 4.15 - Global Acclaim 5pts @ 6/5 B365   -5pts

Kempton 6.20 - Uncle Dick 3pts @ 5/2 B365   -3pts

Double (Global Acclaim/Uncle Dick) 1.5pts E/w @ 6.71 B365   -3pts

 

Global Acclaim looks to have a very good chance to follow up here in this fairly looking weak contest. The extra furlong may play into his hands after his initial win here last year.

Uncle Dick looks to be another capable of following up imo. Discomatic looks the threat here though. Looks to be a fairly even tempered line up looking at the odds available with four closely matched /rated horses, but Uncle Dick's win LTO may be help here.

 

Total outlay (-11pts)

Well that went well.  ?

In (0pts)

Out (-11pts)

Running Total (-47.07pts)

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

8 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

 

12.15 lingfield contigency fee 7/1winner

12.50 lingfield wannabe Betsy 8/1 3places

14.35 lingfield holy tiber 12/1

15.10 lingfield kondrativ wave 12/1

12.20 market rasen agamemmon 10/1 5places placed 5th

13.30 market rasen in the detail 8/1

14.40 market rasen looking well 22/1 4plces

15.15 market rasen miss lamb 28/1 3places

15.50 market rasen knocknamona 8/1

12.40 Warwick Memphis bleek 13/2

13.15 Warwick destrier 12/1 3places

14.25 Warwick lord of kerak 10/1

15.00 Warwick Didero vallis 25/1

15.35 Warwick the captains inn 22/1 4places

12.30 fairyhouse Mullins cross 45/1 5places

13.05 fairyhouse tisadream 20/1 4places

13.40 fairyhouse walk to freedom 30/1 4place

14.15 fairyhouse pint Avon 13/2

16.15 kempton farhh sighted 22/1

17.50 kempton new look 12/1 4places

19.50 kempton foreshore 28/1

20.20 kempton chasel 9/1 

12.05 chantily vienna wood 10/1

13-15 chantily drogo12/1

13.50 chantily dungannnon 10/1

14.32 chantilly neufalacote 28/1 5places

15.07 chantily revoltosa 12/1

 

all bets 50p e/w bet365 ????

bad day after great start 

out £29

in £14.02

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

 

£1.50 win on Flemcara at 8/1 3.35 Warwick (now running)

 

Results Update.

Terrible day for me.  Should have stayed with just the one bet on on Make Me a Believer; I'm convinced that it would have won but for a very sloppy mistake at the last.  Didn't Eileendover run a superb race?  £12 down on the day.  My balance is now £558.38 (£500 Bank)

Awful day's racing tomorrow.  The only graded race for me in the UK is the 1.35 at Southwell where Ghost Rider is 4/6.  Not playing here. I will go for one in the 1.20 at Punchestown out of desperation.  Trying to get £4.21 matched at 4.4 = £14.31

Three cheers for @TheBrigadiertoday, I do hope that a few punters took some of his excellent advice.  ?