Racing Chat - Saturday 19th Dec

[The Brigadier]

Very soft ground is the call for the two terrestrial TV meetings on Saturday and here’s a skip through those races.

 

Ascot 1.50 2m 3f Handicap Chase 

Tom Symonds is having a terrific season and his string remain in excellent form. He saddles Saint De Vassy here who was impressive when winning at Exeter a month ago by 11 lengths. The handicapper has stuck him up 10lb for that win but the way he won makes me think he can defy that new mark. Drumcliff has a good record at this track and looks interesting with trainer Harry Fry’s sister in law Annie O’Connor in the plate. Early De Lemo is one of two Gary Moore runners and can make his presence felt after being touched off by a stable mate last time. 

SAINT DE VASSY 1 point each way  @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4

 

Haydock 2.05 2m 3f Handicap Hurdle 

War Lord has been raised 7lb for his course and distance win 4 weeks ago and can confirm the form here with Our Power who finished some 3 ¼ lengths back in third and is now 6lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between them but I thought Colin Tizzard’s 5 year old won decisively enough. The Last Day is interesting as he can race here off of a 8lb lower mark over hurdles than his smart chase form but he does have an absence to overcome. 

WAR LORD 1 point win @ 10/3 william hill

 

Ascot 2.25 3m 1/2f Long Distance Walk Hurdle 

There shouldn’t be much between Thyme Hill and Paisley Park strictly on their Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle run at Newbury three weeks ago but Philip Hobb’s Thyne Hill is two year’s younger and this is only his 9^th ever contest -he may still be improving and I’ll take him to confirm the form on slightly worse terms. Main Fact did us a favour when winning at Haydock a month ago and this represents a step up in grade. He’s a remarkable horse who’s won his last 9 races (jumps and flat) and shouldn’t be totally dismissed. The mare Roksana gets a valuable 7lb mares allowance and her 3m form gives her a chance as well. A cracker of a race and though I have every respect for Main Fact I’m with Thyne Hill. 

THYNE HILL 2 points win 2/1 bet365

 

Haydock 2.40 3m 1 1/2f Handicap Chase 

The front two in the betting were both impressive last time but both have hefty rise's to overcome and I’ll be looking further down the handicap for a bet in this race.

Sojourn is up 11lb for his easy Carlisle win whilst Hill Sixteen is up 15lb for his last ditch victory over hurdles at Newbury from Lil Rockerfeller. Roll Again and Crixus’s Escape also have rises of 6lb to overcome and it’s the bottom weight Enqarde that takes my eye. Over from France he’s only had two runs for Dr Richard Newland, a 2^nd in a Ascot handicap hurdle and an easy win at Newcastle over 2m 6f. For a 6 year old he’s quite experienced having been campaigned in France and this is his 19th race .He’s had 10 runs over fences in France. Conditional jockey Cillin Leonard’s, who’s ridden him on both starts over here, claim of 7lb brings his weight down to 10-2 which must be a bonus in such sapping conditions as he’ll be getting chunks of weight from the principals. 

ENQARDE 1 point each way @ 15/2 william hill 1/5 1-2-3

 

Ascot 3.00 3m Handicap Chase 

A competitive race where the key form race is the Ladbokes Trophy at Newbury from three weeks ago. The Conditional was 3^rd, Beware The Bear 5^th, Ardlethen 6^th , Mister Malarkey unseated when looking beaten and Regal Encore pulled up.

The Conditional must go well here and has surprisingly been dropped a pound. However it’s Antony Honeyball’s Regal Encore that I’ll be backing each way. He comes alive at the Berkshire track and his form figures here are P10P132131 which includes this race in 2016 and 2019. 

REGAL ENCORE 1 point each way @ 7/1 william hill 1/5 1-2-3

 

Ascot 3.35 1m 7 1/2f Betfair Exchange Trophy (handicap hurdle) 

I previewed this in the week and am still sweet on Harry Fry’s Lightly Squeeze who has conditions to suit, has had a wind op (and wears a tongue tie) since we last saw him (has a big pull with favourite Buzz) and his trainer is in good form with an Exeter double on Thursday. Obviously there are many dangers including the aforementioned Buzz who looked very good over course and distance a month ago but has been hit by a 11lb rise. Benson also impressed when winning over the same course and distance a fortnight ago but he too has been raised 10lb. It would be no shock if either of them two were to win again. Harambe is the other runner I’ll be backing small ew at the enhanced place terms. He looks quite attractively handicapped despite crashing out at the last in two big handicaps on his last two runs when bang there with a chance.

 

LIGHTLY SQUEEZE (pictured below) (advised on Monday) 1 point each way @ 20/1 1-4 1-2-3-4

HARAMBE ½ point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6

 

 

[Villa Chris]

1.50 Ascot, Drumcliff 9/1

Bit up and down but his two visits to this track was a win over CD and also a very good third beaten 3 lengths by the smart Espoir De Guye, last time out. Shouldn’t mind the softer conditions either. On a very workable mark with 5Ibs claimer on board . 
 

2.40 Haydock , Sojourn 7/2

Up 11Ibs for his 15 length win last time out, but seems very progressive and is 2/2 on heavy . A lot to like about him and I think he’ll go close in a strong race. 
 

3.00 Ascot , Regal Encore 8/1

Old boy who has a bit more to do if he wants to repeat last years win in this race, but has everything in his favour with ground/distance/course. Runs off 150 but is still capable of pulling it off. 
 

3.35 Ascot , Malaya 10/1/ Master Debonair 25/1 ew

Very competitive race but Malaya  enjoys it here with figures of 14622. Runs well on soft but not sure she’ll want it too heavy, which brings me to Master Debonair who I think is over priced. Multi CD winner and also a winner on heavy over CD this time last year. Disappointing last time out, but may have needed the run in which was a very strong race on good ground running off 149. Runs off 147 here with a claimer taking off another useful 7Ibs . 

 

[richard-westwood]

150 ascot 

Tough little race and a lot could hinge on the ground .......enrichisant ...catches the eye ....will love the ground and has patchy form that would give him a big chance with conditions to suit 

Mengli Khan has moved to Henderson and form on paper looks very strong although hes an unknown quantity in hcaps .....could be anything so worth a punt 

Mengli khan 10pts ew 11/1 bet365

Enrichisant 10pts ew 12/1 bet365 

[calva decoy]

150 Ascot - Saint De Vassy 5/1 sky bet £ back if 2nd 3rd or 4th.  ?

The 10Lb rise for 11L win at Exeter will need to see him stepping up his game in this higher class race & upped the extra 2f in trip but is still fresh from 1 run this season & a 27 day break won't mind conditions & trainer having a superb season.

150 Ascot - Gardefort 28/1 betfair ( 4 places ). 2nd 33/1

Has had a 588 day break but lots of Venetia Williams charges this season have had 2-300 day breaks & ran well 1st time out , has won 3 of 6 career wins on soft & heavy with a further 9 placed efforts from 38 career starts & getting absolute lumps of weight of most of the field.

335 Belfast Banter 12/1 betfair ( 6 places )  5th ?

The obligatory Irish raider who've done very well on Saturdays , a bit of a quirk & quick tip after having eye on The Jam Man in 2.25 now a non runner .

Tip has 2 wins & 7 placed efforts from 14 starts , only out of first 3 once in last 6 runs , has a flyweight & won't mind conditions.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results

[Wildgarden]

430 Wolverhampton amir fati 15/2

500 Wolverhampton the mackem torpedo 9/4

730 Wolverhampton heerwegoagain 11-1

Win singles / treble will hill. Treble odds 330-1

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

11.45 Lingfield - 2pts win Roundabout Magic @ 13/2

Back down to his last winning mark when winning over c&d by a length earlier this year. Has drifted quite badly in the market since and not quite reproduced that but hopefully he holds up today in the betting as he has an excellent chance under optimum conditions off a mark of 60. Ought to be finishing fast.

12.15 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Heath Rise @ 8/1

Has a duck egg next to his name from one start but was beaten less than 7 lengths that day in a strong looking Kempton maiden. The horse who finished one place ahead of him has managed to win a maiden next time out and Heath Rise represents a yard whose horses tend to come on plenty for their debut. Can put his experience to good use I hope and go forward as there's plenty of stamina in the pedigree so quite a lot to like.

12.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Fawsley Spirit @ 10/1

Not as classy as most of these, nor unexposed, but ran a huge race last time when miles clear with the winner and has only gone up 5lbs for that. Seems to have turned a corner recently having been a good 2nd to a 140-rated chaser in a point to point a couple of starts back and this slog should suit this one. Is off a featherweight which looks sure to help in these conditions so should go well.

1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w Not Another Muddle @ 14/1

Didn't fire at the festival in March but has plenty of old form that would give him a big chance here. Back to the same mark when a solid 2nd at Fontwell behind a thriving horse at the time and these conditions look just about right for him. Has another absence to overcome here but has gone well fresh before and despite having wellbeing to prove, looks worth a chance at the price.

2.05 Haydock - 1pt e/w Chirico Vallis @ 10/1

His hattrick attempt was narrowly denied last time out when chinned by a horse who subsequently ran well in a competitive handicap at Aintree off a higher mark the following race. Conditions suit Neil Mulholland's charge and looks likely to put in another bold effort from a prominent sit. Has been bumped further up the weights for that 2nd but Kevin Brogan jumps aboard to take 7lbs off his back and that could make the difference this afternoon.

2.40 Haydock - 1pt e/w Salty Boy @ 18/1

Has to jump better today but there has been some promise in his two most recent starts when finding things happening too quickly for him. His jumping put him in the back foot and stopped him building up momentum but finished with running left in him and the return to a bit further and softer ground might just help him today. Cheekpieces are on to focus him a bit and the left handed track can help as he can jump out that way. Needs to do better but is at a backable price so will chance him off a light weight.

3.35 Ascot - 2pts win Time Flies By @ 6/1

Is the favourite and goes handicapping in just about as hotter race as he could find but looks dangerously treated in my opinion considering I think he's not been running under optimum conditions the last twice. Was a solid 3rd in a hot race on hurdling debut despite making mistakes and his mark on that evidence looks good. Shaped as if the drop back to a strongly run 2 miles would suit on his two latest runs so handicapping off 129 under what I'd consider to be ideal conditions now, can take all the beating if jumping okay.

[alancraik]

ASCOT 13:50 Drumcliff 11/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 14:25 Paisley Park 2/1 win

ASCOT 15:00 Beware The Bear 12/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 15:35 Buzz 6/1 e/w 5 Places
plus e/w yankee

ASCOT 13:50 Mengli Khan 11/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 15:35 Night Edition 20/1 e/w 5 Places
plus e/w double

[roger2256]

Dec +3 

11.45 Lin Magic Roundabout 5/1 Lost

13.50 Asc Smarty Wild 7/1 Lost

13.50 Asc Drumcliffe 9/1 Lost

14.25 Asc Roksana 4/1 Lost

14.40 Hay  Salty Boy  18/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

* addition 

20.00 Wol Step Sister 9/1 Lost

-6

Dec -3 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[peanut peanut]

Ascot 3.00- Espoir De Guye @ 7/2

Likes it here and in fine form , new trip but sure to go well.

[skylark2009]

Running Total (+9.56)

Caribean Boy looks to be a good chaser in the making. He should act on the going and probably likes to run prominent or set the pace, which he will likely do again today.Itchy Feet has made some mistakes in his last couple of runs, but could very well be following Caribean Boy home today.

1.15 Ascot - Caribean Boy 5pts @ 4/5 B365
1.15 Ascot - Caribean Boy/Itchy Feet 1pt straight forecast (approx 2.49/1)

Mengli Khan is of interest here as an E/w bet, formerly with trainer G Elliot but now trained by N Henderson. Won last time out by making all and the trainer change may be of help today. Looks a competitive race with several dangers, hence an E/w bet.

1.50 Ascot Mengli Khan 2.5pts E/w @ 9/1 B365

Espor De Guye is a tentative pick here. Already proven on the course (2 from 2) and will definately act on the likely going. Several others here also look strong contenders, making this a difficult race to gauge.

3.00 Ascot - Espoir De Guye 2pts @ 7/2 B365

My final picks are for Malaya/Night Edition in the 3.35, this is an E/w dutch (¼ odds) for the first six places (total 5pts). A very competitive race here, with Buzz, Master Debonair and Lightly Squeeze looking the best here. Malaya or Night Edition could well be in the mix at the end given the form from their last few races.

3.35 Ascot - Malaya 1.63pts E/w (six places) @ 8/1 B365
3.35 Ascot - Night Edition 0.87pts E/w (six places) @ 16/1 B365

Total bet - 18pts

[MCLARKE]

One qualifier for my young handicappers system in the 2.15 at Newcastle.

JOIE DE VIVRE 15/2

[The Equaliser]

I'll go for a £5.30 win bet on Paisley Park at 3.50 in the 2.25 at Ascot.  Poss return of a profit of £12.99.  I was thinking of backing Thyme Hill but Mick Fitzgerald on the Morning Line was so impressed with Paisley Park in receipt of 3 lbs and so I have taken this horse at a better price. 

Well Paisley Park did the business, just; so I'm back in the black again.  Got robbed for 1p but no good complaining.  £12.98 profit so my balance c/fwd is now £507.84

Only two UK meetings tomorrow.  Three non handicaps at Fakenham, Only one at Southwell where the favourite is odds on.  Hope I can find a bet

Edited December 20, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[black rabbit]

Mister Malarky  1pt  win   3 00 ascot   19.5 betfair 

Night Edition   3 35 ascot   1pt  win  34/1  betfair

Higest  Sun   2 40  Haydock  1pt  win  11/1  betfair

Mujid  6 00  Wolvs   1pt  win  win  28.32  betfair 

Poyle Vinne  Wolvs  1pt  win  22/1  betfair

Typhoon  Ten  1pt  win  19.20  betfair

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I'll go for a £5.30 win bet on Paisley Park at 3.50 in the 2.25 at Ascot.  Poss return of a profit of £12.99.  I was thinking of backing Thyme Hill but Mick Fitzgerald on the Morning Line was so impressed with Paisley Park in receipt of 3 lbs and so I have taken this horse at a better price. 

Hope he wins. Personally I think he could have done without the heavy going, but hopefully he can plough through it and win . Cracking race .

[Tedthewolf]

3.00  Ascot-A big outsider i like in this  e/w SUB LEUITENANT  some  bookie paying 4 places at around 40/1 is as big as 66/1 for 3 places have  first fun for new trainer this horse was decent in Ireland  way to big a price imho also 10/1 shot FLYING ANGEL from the NTD yard should go well and is also an e/w price 4 places looks  the way to play  in this race with only  10 runnersgoing to post

I'm sticking with HAMBRE & BELFAST BANTER e/w  in the 3.35 Ascot.

[Villa Chris]

Go on paisley park. Looked in trouble but Christ did he stay on well. Rightfully retains his number 1 status. 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Hope he wins. Personally I think he could have done without the heavy going, but hopefully he can plough through it and win . Cracking race .

Many thanks.  It did win but even Aidan Coleman admitted that he did not ride it properly. But it's the result that counts at the end of the day ?

[Villa Chris]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  It did win but even Aidan Coleman admitted that he did not ride it properly. But it's the result that counts at the end of the day ?

Weren’t his best run, but he won and beat a class field. Love the horse and happy for his owners and trainers who seem a lovely bunch. 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

3.00  Ascot-A big outsider i like in this  e/w SUB LEUITENANT  some  bookie paying 4 places at around 40/1 is as big as 66/1 for 3 places have  first fun for new trainer this horse was decent in Ireland  way to big a price imho also 10/1 shot FLYING ANGEL from the NTD yard should go well and is also an e/w price 4 places looks  the way to play  in this race with only  10 runnersgoing to post

 

Sub Leuitenant  4th @ 66/1

Edited December 19, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Mister Malarky  1pt  win   3 00 ascot   19.5 betfair 

Night Edition   3 35 ascot   1pt  win  34/1  betfair

Higest  Sun   2 40  Haydock  1pt  win  11/1  betfair

Mujid  6 00  Wolvs   1pt  win  win  28.32  betfair 

Poyle Vinne  Wolvs  1pt  win  22/1  betfair

Typhoon  Ten  1pt  win  19.20  betfair

 

Good call with Mister Malarkey ?

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Weren’t his best run, but he won and beat a class field. Love the horse and happy for his owners and trainers who seem a lovely bunch. 

I love your enthusiasm Chris.  Maybe I stand a better chance now I'm ditching handicap racing.  I know you stick to Class 2 and upwards racing.  Do you think that even avoiding handicaps in this sphere is more profitable?

[Wildgarden]

8 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

430 Wolverhampton amir fati 15/2 terrible start couldn't match pace 11th

500 Wolverhampton the mackem torpedo 9/4 won

730 Wolverhampton heerwegoagain 11-1 13-2 sp (10p reduction) value there but 2nd wondered a little near end.

Win singles / treble will hill. Treble odds 330-1

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Wildgarden

[skylark2009]

5 hours ago, skylark2009 said:

Running Total (+9.56)

Caribean Boy looks to be a good chaser in the making. He should act on the going and probably likes to run prominent or set the pace, which he will likely do again today.Itchy Feet has made some mistakes in his last couple of runs, but could very well be following Caribean Boy home today.

1.15 Ascot - Caribean Boy 5pts @ 4/5 B365  -5pts
1.15 Ascot - Caribean Boy/Itchy Feet 1pt straight forecast (approx 2.49/1)  -1pt

Mengli Khan is of interest here as an E/w bet, formerly with trainer G Elliot but now trained by N Henderson. Won last time out by making all and the trainer change may be of help today. Looks a competitive race with several dangers, hence an E/w bet.

1.50 Ascot Mengli Khan 2.5pts E/w @ 9/1 B365  -5pts

Espor De Guye is a tentative pick here. Already proven on the course (2 from 2) and will definately act on the likely going. Several others here also look strong contenders, making this a difficult race to gauge.

3.00 Ascot - Espoir De Guye 2pts @ 7/2 B365  -2pts

My final picks are for Malaya/Night Edition in the 3.35, this is an E/w dutch (¼ odds) for the first six places (total 5pts). A very competitive race here, with Buzz, Master Debonair and Lightly Squeeze looking the best here. Malaya or Night Edition could well be in the mix at the end given the form from their last few races.

3.35 Ascot - Malaya 1.63pts E/w (six places) @ 8/1 B365  -3.26pts
3.35 Ascot - Night Edition 0.87pts E/w (six places) @ 16/1 B365 -1.74pts

Total bet - 18pts

In (0pts)

Out (-18pts)

Running Total (-8.44pts)

[Villa Chris]

30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I love your enthusiasm Chris.  Maybe I stand a better chance now I'm ditching handicap racing.  I know you stick to Class 2 and upwards racing.  Do you think that even avoiding handicaps in this sphere is more profitable?

I think there’s less to work out by concentrating on graded races, particularly grade 1&2. There’s also less value, but then again some may say Paisley Park was value at 5/2 today.  I’ve thought about just concentrating on the top races as I think I’d have a better strike rate, but I like trying to work out the handicaps.  

[LEE-GRAYS]

just like to say NOT SO SLEEPY what a horse made my xmas never a dull moment  

[Villa Chris]

10 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

just like to say NOT SO SLEEPY what a horse made my xmas never a dull moment  

I ruled him out straight away. No 8 year old had ever won it, and no one had won it back to back. I also thought he was a bit high in the handicap. That’s how much I know ? . Well done, though. Nice price. 

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I ruled him out straight away. No 8 year old had ever won it, and no one had won it back to back. I also thought he was a bit high in the handicap. That’s how much I know ? . Well done, though. Nice price. 

The trend isn't always your friend !

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The trend isn't always your friend !

It certainly isn’t, although some races have much stronger trends than others. 

[Tedthewolf]

17 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I ruled him out straight away. No 8 year old had ever won it, and no one had won it back to back. I also thought he was a bit high in the handicap. That’s how much I know ? . Well done, though. Nice price. 

Yeah  i thought he had far too much weight  too i like horses that have won and/or ran well in  previous years  but didn't give him much of chance at all this time around would never of  backed him. How wrong i was ran an absolute cracker and deserved winner.