Racing Chat - Friday 11th Dec.

[The Brigadier]

Here’s a look at the bumper card for Cheltenham on Friday.

The ground is currently good to soft but with rain around it could easily ease to soft come race day – certainly not a meeting for fast ground horses! 

11.30 2m 1f Novice Hurdle 

Trappy affair with all bar possibly the rank outsider Butte Montana having claims. David Pipe is having a decent season and I like the look of his Make Me A Believer who’s had a wind operation since we last saw him, that was at Lingfield when he was sandwiched between Bear Ghylls and Take Your Time who have both won since.

Any News and Lucky One both impressed when winning last time and are big threats. 

MAKE ME A BELIEVER 1 point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

12.05 3m1 1/2f Novices Chase 

Although still a maiden following 6 efforts over fences Mick Channon’s Hold That Note could be the answer here. He’s up against three previous winners in Happygolucky, L’Air Du Vent and The Mighty Don who all have to carry penalties. Hold The Note has kept good company and if back to his 3^rd in last season’s Festival Novices’ Handicap Chase to useful sorts Imperial Aura and Galvin in a first time visor will run a big race. 

HOLD THE NOTE 1 point win @ 7/2 william hill

 

12.40 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle 

A tough handicap with plenty having chances. Bottom weight Lively Citizen won here earlier in the season (2^nd bolted up since) at 33/1 and is now 4lb higher. He has claims for local trainer DJ Jeffreys. Breffinboy has won 4 of his last 5 outings for Johnny Farrelly but has been re-assessed now and has to race off of a 6lb higher mark than his last win. Tegerek has shown decent form here this season winning at the October meeting and then a credible 3^rd on softer ground at the Paddy Power meeting. Back in 6^th at the October win was Fergal O’Brien’s Benny’s Bridge and can re-oppose now on a stone better terms for 21 1/2l. This is a horse whose 2 from 4 here and went off as short as 9/2 for last season’s Greatwood Hurdle. He’ll do for me. 

BENNYS BRIDGE 1 point each way @ 6/1 william hill 

 

1.15 2m 4f Mares Handicap Chase 

Yet again open handicap with plenty in with a shout. The key piece of form in my eyes is the Arian victory at Warwick 23 days ago. Arian beat Nikap who re-opposes on 5lb better terms for 2 lengths and they’re shouldn’t be much between them as there isn’t in the betting with the former a 5/1 poke and the latter generally 13/2. I’m interested in the third that day Martila who travelled like the best horse ending up beaten 2 1/4l by Arian and a further head by Nikap. She has a 6lb and 1lb pull with that pair and is around the 12/1 mark which looks too big to me. Pauline Robson trains up in Northumberland and wouldn’t be sending her down for the fresh air. She looks decent each way value to me. 

MARTILA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

1.50 2m 4f Peterborough Chase 

The BHA have done well to re-schedule this following Huntingdon’s abandonment last Sunday and they’ve been rewarded with a good 8 runner field. The top 3 Bun Doran, Top Notch (may need this run?) and Mister Fisher (wouldn’t want any more rain) all have to carry penalties and with Dolos possibly better at the minimum trip and Clondaw Castle not certain to be suited by the track (form figures of 040 here although the 4^th was in the JLT) I’m happy to go with Venetia Williams’ Fanion D’Estruval who ran a blinder when 2^nd to Magic Saint under top weight in a handicap at the Paddy Power meeting. 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 1 point each way @ 11/2 betvictor

 

2.25 3m2f Handicap Chase 

Black Corton looked well beat when crashing out at Ascot last time and is overlooked here despite his good course record of 115. West Approach has plenty of ability but is certainly not one you can trust in a finish. Storm Controls victory here 27 days ago has not worked out and this looks destined to go to the Irish challenger Court Maid trained by Thomas Mullins. She routed her field when winning the 20 runner Porterstown Handicap at Fairyhouse by 20l. She’s improving rapidly and can win again. The biggest danger maybe Venetia’s Commodore who ran well on his re-appearance at Haydock but has been raised 6lb for that. 

COURT MAID 2 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

3.00 3m6f Cross Country Handicap Chase 

No Easyland so the weights have been raised 21lb which to me is highly significant. Favourite is likely to be Jessie Harrington’s Neverushacon who sluished up at Punchestown in one of their banks races and is the one to beat for sure with the only thing I don’t like about him is his trainer has gone to print saying hes a good ground horse so any rain wouldn' be ideal.. Kingswell Theatre had Beau Du Brizas 5 lengths back at the last meeting and on 5lb worse terms there really shouldn’t be anything between them  (Vivas and Little Bruce held in behind that day).  The weight rise has bough De Forgotten One into a basement weight of 10-1 and will be ridden Felix De Giles who based in France has plenty of experience over these type of fences He rode him for trainer Richard Hobson (you can watch the race on Hobson’s twitter feed) when winning at Compiegne last month over a shorter trip but he appeals as a lightly raced (he’s only six) horse who could take to these fences. 

DE FORGOTTEN ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 betvictor 

 

3.35 3m Handicap Hurdle 

Another competitive handicap to finish the card off but I do fancy one lurking right down the bottom here.Unowhatimeanharry rolled back the years when winning at Aintree on his re-appearance by 1 1/4l from Mohaayed (2lb better off now).On The Blind Side won a similar handicap at the last meeting but has been shunted up 5lb now. Dell’Arca blew out very quickly at Newbury and maybe his winning run has come to an end for now.  But it’s Fergal O’Brien’s Goodbye Dancer that has caught my eye here. I fancied him last time out at the October Showcase meeting but he was easy to back (8/1 out to 20/1) and was 10 lengths detached at the first hurdle and stayed there for most of the way. A nice pipe opener for tomorrow I think, a race he won last season off of a 1lb lower mark landing a bit of a touch as well. To be fair to his October run the ground wouldn’t have been soft enough for him and with rain forecast and Paddy Brennan riding at his minimum weight is the days nap for me. 

GOODBYE DANCER (below) 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 

 

[Villa Chris]

 

The start of a couple of days of racing at Cheltenham. I’ve only looked at the one race so far “ The Peterborough Chase”. I have Top Notch clear by a few points, which is no surprise as he’s a real classy horse. I would prefer him to be going right handed though, which I think he’s slightly better at. He’s won going left handed a few times , so it’s not a big concern, and I don’t think he’ll need a career best to win this anyway. It’s also first run back after a lengthy break.  He runs off 158 which is a bit below what he’s used to running off over fences. He’s won off 162 and 161 in recent times  so I think he’s on a fair mark. 
 

I’ve looked through the card and i think the biggest threat to him will be Ben Doran who looks overpriced at 20/1. 

 

[Villa Chris]

Venetia Williams has only had 3 winners at Cheltenham racecourse in the last 5 years. Not sure how many horses  she’s had there in that amount of time. 

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Venetia Williams has only had 3 winners at Cheltenham racecourse in the last 5 years. Not sure how many horses  she’s had there in that amount of time. 

That' an interesting stat Chris ?

[Villa Chris]

Cheltenham 1.50, Top Notch 9/2

Cheltenham 2.25 , Court Maid 7/4

Cheltenham 3.35, Unowhatimeanharry 13/2

[richard-westwood]

335 chelt

On the blind side  335 

Cotswold way   331 

Very interesting and classy looking race ....on the blind side looks a horse on the upgrade and handles Cheltenham so has a lot going for him hence fav ......cotswold way hasn't really fired for a while but handles Cheltenham and showed signs of a return to form last time and if so could be well treated now 

On the blind side 10pt win 5.9 betfair 

Cotswold way 10pt win 17.0 betfair 

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Venetia Williams has only had 3 winners at Cheltenham racecourse in the last 5 years. Not sure how many horses  she’s had there in that amount of time.

You knew I would have to investigate !

My database has 5 winners from 148 runners with a very poor AE of 0.59.

Nothing in the statistics to recommend her I'm afraid, even her 14 runners on heavy going have all lost.

[Tedthewolf]

Good luck guys lets hope we have plenty of winners  at this Chetenham 2 day meeting!

Ok 2 for  me today.

12.40 Cheltenham- A 40/1 that i think can outrun those big odds CLEMENICA 1/5 5places (Not BOG) Third run since joining Tim Vaughan stable and indeed 3rd run at the track a very decent 5th @ 66/1  in march  followed by a fall in October when still in with a chance  so the track suits  and i really can see this one  go well more than happy to have an e/w  punt at 40's.

3.35 Chelteham- GOODBYE DANCER 8/1  corals 1/5 4 places BOG- Strong e/w chance  won race last year only a ib higher not been form   at all since last years win  but i expecting a return to form here from last years winning trainer and jockey comi  will be spot on for another big run in this will have been trained for it  big chance will be disapointed if not placed at least!

[MCLARKE]

I'll stick with Nicky Henderson, he did have a 15/2 winner today despite another 2 losing favourites.

In the 1.50 at Cheltenham he has 2 runners, both best priced at 9/2. I'll go with MISTER FISHER, being the younger horse.

He also has 2 in the 2.17 at Doncaster. I'll skip his odds on favourite and go for the less fancied CLARENDON STREET at 9/1.

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Good luck guys lets hope we have plenty of winners  at this Chetenham 2 day meeting!

Ok 2 for  me today.

12.40 Cheltenham- A 40/1 that i think can outrun those big odds CLEMENICA 1/5 5places (Not BOG) Third run since joining Tim Vaughan stable and indeed 3rd run at the track a very decent 5th @ 66/1  in march  followed by a fall in October when still in with a chance  so the track suits  and i really can see this one  go well more than happy to have an e/w  punt at 40's.

3.35 Chelteham- GOODBYE DANCER 8/1  corals 1/5 4 places BOG- Strong e/w chance  won race last year only a ib higher not been form   at all since last years win  but i expecting a return to form here from last years winning trainer and jockey comi  will be spot on for another big run in this will have been trained for it  big chance will be disapointed if not placed at least!

Hope youre right about GD Ted, overnight rain will suit and as a 'small' horse bottom weight like last year should suit ?

[peanut peanut]

Cheltenham 12.40 - Sarasota Star @ 8/1 

In form and improving with suitable ground. Good chance

[harrisman]

19 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Here’s a look at the bumper card for Cheltenham on Friday.

The ground is currently good to soft but with rain around it could easily ease to soft come race day – certainly not a meeting for fast ground horses! 

11.30 2m 1f Novice Hurdle 

Trappy affair with all bar possibly the rank outsider Butte Montana having claims. David Pipe is having a decent season and I like the look of his Make Me A Believer who’s had a wind operation since we last saw him, that was at Lingfield when he was sandwiched between Bear Ghylls and Take Your Time who have both won since.

Any News and Lucky One both impressed when winning last time and are big threats. 

MAKE ME A BELIEVER 1 point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

12.05 3m1 1/2f Novices Chase 

Although still a maiden following 6 efforts over fences Mick Channon’s Hold That Note could be the answer here. He’s up against three previous winners in Happygolucky, L’Air Du Vent and The Mighty Don who all have to carry penalties. Hold The Note has kept good company and if back to his 3^rd in last season’s Festival Novices’ Handicap Chase to useful sorts Imperial Aura and Galvin in a first time visor will run a big race. 

HOLD THE NOTE 1 point win @ 7/2 william hill

 

12.40 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle 

A tough handicap with plenty having chances. Bottom weight Lively Citizen won here earlier in the season (2^nd bolted up since) at 33/1 and is now 4lb higher. He has claims for local trainer DJ Jeffreys. Breffinboy has won 4 of his last 5 outings for Johnny Farrelly but has been re-assessed now and has to race off of a 6lb higher mark than his last win. Tegerek has shown decent form here this season winning at the October meeting and then a credible 3^rd on softer ground at the Paddy Power meeting. Back in 6^th at the October win was Fergal O’Brien’s Benny’s Bridge and can re-oppose now on a stone better terms for 21 1/2l. This is a horse whose 2 from 4 here and went off as short as 9/2 for last season’s Greatwood Hurdle. He’ll do for me. 

BENNYS BRIDGE 1 point each way @ 6/1 william hill 

 

1.15 2m 4f Mares Handicap Chase 

Yet again open handicap with plenty in with a shout. The key piece of form in my eyes is the Arian victory at Warwick 23 days ago. Arian beat Nikap who re-opposes on 5lb better terms for 2 lengths and they’re shouldn’t be much between them as there isn’t in the betting with the former a 5/1 poke and the latter generally 13/2. I’m interested in the third that day Martila who travelled like the best horse ending up beaten 2 1/4l by Arian and a further head by Nikap. She has a 6lb and 1lb pull with that pair and is around the 12/1 mark which looks too big to me. Pauline Robson trains up in Northumberland and wouldn’t be sending her down for the fresh air. She looks decent each way value to me. 

MARTILA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

1.50 2m 4f Peterborough Chase 

The BHA have done well to re-schedule this following Huntingdon’s abandonment last Sunday and they’ve been rewarded with a good 8 runner field. The top 3 Bun Doran, Top Notch (may need this run?) and Mister Fisher (wouldn’t want any more rain) all have to carry penalties and with Dolos possibly better at the minimum trip and Clondaw Castle not certain to be suited by the track (form figures of 040 here although the 4^th was in the JLT) I’m happy to go with Venetia Williams’ Fanion D’Estruval who ran a blinder when 2^nd to Magic Saint under top weight in a handicap at the Paddy Power meeting. 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 1 point each way @ 11/2 betvictor

 

2.25 3m2f Handicap Chase 

Black Corton looked well beat when crashing out at Ascot last time and is overlooked here despite his good course record of 115. West Approach has plenty of ability but is certainly not one you can trust in a finish. Storm Controls victory here 27 days ago has not worked out and this looks destined to go to the Irish challenger Court Maid trained by Thomas Mullins. She routed her field when winning the 20 runner Porterstown Handicap at Fairyhouse by 20l. She’s improving rapidly and can win again. The biggest danger maybe Venetia’s Commodore who ran well on his re-appearance at Haydock but has been raised 6lb for that. 

COURT MAID 2 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

3.00 3m6f Cross Country Handicap Chase 

No Easyland so the weights have been raised 21lb which to me is highly significant. Favourite is likely to be Jessie Harrington’s Neverushacon who sluished up at Punchestown in one of their banks races and is the one to beat for sure with the only thing I don’t like about him is his trainer has gone to print saying hes a good ground horse so any rain wouldn' be ideal.. Kingswell Theatre had Beau Du Brizas 5 lengths back at the last meeting and on 5lb worse terms there really shouldn’t be anything between them  (Vivas and Little Bruce held in behind that day).  The weight rise has bough De Forgotten One into a basement weight of 10-1 and will be ridden Felix De Giles who based in France has plenty of experience over these type of fences He rode him for trainer Richard Hobson (you can watch the race on Hobson’s twitter feed) when winning at Compiegne last month over a shorter trip but he appeals as a lightly raced (he’s only six) horse who could take to these fences. 

DE FORGOTTEN ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 betvictor 

 

3.35 3m Handicap Hurdle 

Another competitive handicap to finish the card off but I do fancy one lurking right down the bottom here.Unowhatimeanharry rolled back the years when winning at Aintree on his re-appearance by 1 1/4l from Mohaayed (2lb better off now).On The Blind Side won a similar handicap at the last meeting but has been shunted up 5lb now. Dell’Arca blew out very quickly at Newbury and maybe his winning run has come to an end for now.  But it’s Fergal O’Brien’s Goodbye Dancer that has caught my eye here. I fancied him last time out at the October Showcase meeting but he was easy to back (8/1 out to 20/1) and was 10 lengths detached at the first hurdle and stayed there for most of the way. A nice pipe opener for tomorrow I think, a race he won last season off of a 1lb lower mark landing a bit of a touch as well. To be fair to his October run the ground wouldn’t have been soft enough for him and with rain forecast and Paddy Brennan riding at his minimum weight is the days nap for me. 

GOODBYE DANCER (below) 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 

 

Agree about the Hobson/Felix De Giles horse in the Cross Country. Completely unexposed over trip and a lovely low weight. Felix is an excellent rider in this type of event and vastly more exp now than the other riders in this discipline. 

[The Equaliser]

20 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Here’s a look at the bumper card for Cheltenham on Friday.

The ground is currently good to soft but with rain around it could easily ease to soft come race day – certainly not a meeting for fast ground horses! 

11.30 2m 1f Novice Hurdle 

Trappy affair with all bar possibly the rank outsider Butte Montana having claims. David Pipe is having a decent season and I like the look of his Make Me A Believer who’s had a wind operation since we last saw him, that was at Lingfield when he was sandwiched between Bear Ghylls and Take Your Time who have both won since.

Any News and Lucky One both impressed when winning last time and are big threats. 

MAKE ME A BELIEVER 1 point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

12.05 3m1 1/2f Novices Chase 

Although still a maiden following 6 efforts over fences Mick Channon’s Hold That Note could be the answer here. He’s up against three previous winners in Happygolucky, L’Air Du Vent and The Mighty Don who all have to carry penalties. Hold The Note has kept good company and if back to his 3^rd in last season’s Festival Novices’ Handicap Chase to useful sorts Imperial Aura and Galvin in a first time visor will run a big race. 

HOLD THE NOTE 1 point win @ 7/2 william hill

 

12.40 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle 

A tough handicap with plenty having chances. Bottom weight Lively Citizen won here earlier in the season (2^nd bolted up since) at 33/1 and is now 4lb higher. He has claims for local trainer DJ Jeffreys. Breffinboy has won 4 of his last 5 outings for Johnny Farrelly but has been re-assessed now and has to race off of a 6lb higher mark than his last win. Tegerek has shown decent form here this season winning at the October meeting and then a credible 3^rd on softer ground at the Paddy Power meeting. Back in 6^th at the October win was Fergal O’Brien’s Benny’s Bridge and can re-oppose now on a stone better terms for 21 1/2l. This is a horse whose 2 from 4 here and went off as short as 9/2 for last season’s Greatwood Hurdle. He’ll do for me. 

BENNYS BRIDGE 1 point each way @ 6/1 william hill 

 

1.15 2m 4f Mares Handicap Chase 

Yet again open handicap with plenty in with a shout. The key piece of form in my eyes is the Arian victory at Warwick 23 days ago. Arian beat Nikap who re-opposes on 5lb better terms for 2 lengths and they’re shouldn’t be much between them as there isn’t in the betting with the former a 5/1 poke and the latter generally 13/2. I’m interested in the third that day Martila who travelled like the best horse ending up beaten 2 1/4l by Arian and a further head by Nikap. She has a 6lb and 1lb pull with that pair and is around the 12/1 mark which looks too big to me. Pauline Robson trains up in Northumberland and wouldn’t be sending her down for the fresh air. She looks decent each way value to me. 

MARTILA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

1.50 2m 4f Peterborough Chase 

The BHA have done well to re-schedule this following Huntingdon’s abandonment last Sunday and they’ve been rewarded with a good 8 runner field. The top 3 Bun Doran, Top Notch (may need this run?) and Mister Fisher (wouldn’t want any more rain) all have to carry penalties and with Dolos possibly better at the minimum trip and Clondaw Castle not certain to be suited by the track (form figures of 040 here although the 4^th was in the JLT) I’m happy to go with Venetia Williams’ Fanion D’Estruval who ran a blinder when 2^nd to Magic Saint under top weight in a handicap at the Paddy Power meeting. 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 1 point each way @ 11/2 betvictor

 

2.25 3m2f Handicap Chase 

Black Corton looked well beat when crashing out at Ascot last time and is overlooked here despite his good course record of 115. West Approach has plenty of ability but is certainly not one you can trust in a finish. Storm Controls victory here 27 days ago has not worked out and this looks destined to go to the Irish challenger Court Maid trained by Thomas Mullins. She routed her field when winning the 20 runner Porterstown Handicap at Fairyhouse by 20l. She’s improving rapidly and can win again. The biggest danger maybe Venetia’s Commodore who ran well on his re-appearance at Haydock but has been raised 6lb for that. 

COURT MAID 2 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

3.00 3m6f Cross Country Handicap Chase 

No Easyland so the weights have been raised 21lb which to me is highly significant. Favourite is likely to be Jessie Harrington’s Neverushacon who sluished up at Punchestown in one of their banks races and is the one to beat for sure with the only thing I don’t like about him is his trainer has gone to print saying hes a good ground horse so any rain wouldn' be ideal.. Kingswell Theatre had Beau Du Brizas 5 lengths back at the last meeting and on 5lb worse terms there really shouldn’t be anything between them  (Vivas and Little Bruce held in behind that day).  The weight rise has bough De Forgotten One into a basement weight of 10-1 and will be ridden Felix De Giles who based in France has plenty of experience over these type of fences He rode him for trainer Richard Hobson (you can watch the race on Hobson’s twitter feed) when winning at Compiegne last month over a shorter trip but he appeals as a lightly raced (he’s only six) horse who could take to these fences. 

DE FORGOTTEN ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 betvictor 

 

3.35 3m Handicap Hurdle 

Another competitive handicap to finish the card off but I do fancy one lurking right down the bottom here.Unowhatimeanharry rolled back the years when winning at Aintree on his re-appearance by 1 1/4l from Mohaayed (2lb better off now).On The Blind Side won a similar handicap at the last meeting but has been shunted up 5lb now. Dell’Arca blew out very quickly at Newbury and maybe his winning run has come to an end for now.  But it’s Fergal O’Brien’s Goodbye Dancer that has caught my eye here. I fancied him last time out at the October Showcase meeting but he was easy to back (8/1 out to 20/1) and was 10 lengths detached at the first hurdle and stayed there for most of the way. A nice pipe opener for tomorrow I think, a race he won last season off of a 1lb lower mark landing a bit of a touch as well. To be fair to his October run the ground wouldn’t have been soft enough for him and with rain forecast and Paddy Brennan riding at his minimum weight is the days nap for me. 

GOODBYE DANCER (below) 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 bet365 

 

Thanks for your analysis.  One question that I do have is about Fanion Destruval in the 1.50 at Cheltenham.  You recommend an each way bet here but in the PL accumulator tips you put the selection up as part of a win treble.  This doesn't seem to make sense to me.  I believe that you got a treble up with the shorter priced selections either yesterday or the day before which I thought was great for PL followers.  Forgive me if I'm wrong but it doesn't seem right to me for you to put up a 9/2/ 5/1 shot for the PL accumulator when you are recommending an each way bet under Racing Chat?

[alancraik]

todays selections

BANGOR-ON-DEE 13:30 Accordingtogino 15/8 win

CHELTENHAM 13:50 Top Notch 9/2 win

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Storm Control 13/2 e/w 3 Places

CHELTENHAM 15:35 On The Blind Side 4/1 win

plus e/w yankee

another that scored highly
BANGOR-ON-DEE 14:05 Poker Play 6/1 (discounted only 4 runners)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w The Mighty Don @ 10/1

I quite like the outsider of the lot here...the favourite isn't proven over this far, the second favourite wasn't that much further ahead than The Mighty Don last time and the third favourite didn't jump well enough at Newbury for me last time. The Mighty Don is five times the price and there's little wrong with his win two starts back and ran okay behind L'Air Du Vent at Exeter last time giving that one 5lbs in the process. This stiffer test will suit and looks to hold solid claims at the weights so seems overpriced to me.

12.40 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Rowland Ward @ 20/1

Looks a big price here given he's done little wrong over hurdles and looks well handicapped on its victory over Thyme White last season. Shaped well on seasonal return when drifting in the market and needing the run but conditions suit, should strip fitter now and a mark of 129 is far from restrictive.

1.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Sweet Adare @ 8/1

Hasn't run too badly in a couple of chases this season but has had stiff tasks and also shaped as if the minimum trip was too sharp. Now runs off a lower mark than when last winning over hurdles and the step up in trip looks likely to suit as it has won over 2m3f over hurdles. Cheekpieces go on as well and Victor Dartnell's runners are in good form.

1.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Fanion D'Estruval @ 9/2

Really promising type who travels well, jumps soundly on the whole and appears to see out his races well enough to suggest the extra yardage here will suit. Did well to keep on again after pecking badly at the last here when last seen and could possibly have won without that mistake. Kalashnikov could be vulnerable late on here and Mister Fisher has a bit to prove after last time out so I think this is a rock solid option today. 

2.25 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w West Approach @ 15/2

It wasn't a pleasant watch last time when this horse loses ground at every fence but he wasn't quite so bad in the jumping stakes two starts back and if running that well again I think he'll win this. Has a big engine as despite not jumping at all last time, still loomed up with a chance and ultimately the 3m3f on soft ground just tired him out in the end. This is an easier race, the better ground might help his jumping and with even a slightly smoother round, I think he'll go close.

3.00 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Beau De Brizais @ 13/2

Jumped like a stag around here last time when beaten by Kingswell Theatre but the swing in the weights today and the fact that his conqueror has a good record fresh and that was its first run of the season means that I fancy Beau De Brizais to turn the tables today. Neverushacon hasn't quite matched his Irish form here and whilst this looks quite open, Philip Hobbs' runner looks a rock solid each way option. 

3.35 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Boyhood @ 28/1

Tom George's runner looks a bit overpriced here having shaped okay if a bit laboured when last seen. That came after a lengthy absence however and has been given time tor recover since and he'd have a good chance on old form. He certainly stays and runs this track well and in a race where quite a few have to prove their stamina and/or their wellbeing, this one can keep galloping and hopefully make the frame.

[Villa Chris]

The money is coming in for Kalashnikov, but I can’t help but feel he’s a few Ibs too high still. I think the horse has had a bit of a tough time off the handicapper over the last year or so, and it would be nice to see him get his nose back in front but hopefully not today ? You watch him hammer it today .

[azzybear]

hooper 11.55

[Wildgarden]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You knew I would have to investigate !

My database has 5 winners from 148 runners with a very poor AE of 0.59.

Nothing in the statistics to recommend her I'm afraid, even her 14 runners on heavy going have all lost.

Lay them all then lol ?

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks for your analysis.  One question that I do have is about Fanion Destruval in the 1.50 at Cheltenham.  You recommend an each way bet here but in the PL accumulator tips you put the selection up as part of a win treble.  This doesn't seem to make sense to me.  I believe that you got a treble up with the shorter priced selections either yesterday or the day before which I thought was great for PL followers.  Forgive me if I'm wrong but it doesn't seem right to me for you to put up a 9/2/ 5/1 shot for the PL accumulator when you are recommending an each way bet under Racing Chat?

Very good question! The accumulator selections are taken over on the Friday/ Saturday & Sunday by Tumbleweed King. I'm in charge of all the other selections that you see in the tips section. I can see what you mean by the confusion there and hope that clarifiess it a bit for you.

[roger2256]

Dec +30 

Few extras for me 

1pt level stakes win only 

12.40 Chelt Sarasota Star 13/2 Lost

12.55 Ban Norwegian Woods 14/1 Lost

15.18 Punch Ambitious Fellow 33/1 Lost

17.30 Dun Muraahin 8/1 Lost 

Prices as of now b365 

-4

Dec +26 

Edited December 11, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[The Equaliser]

53 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Very good question! The accumulator selections are taken over on the Friday/ Saturday & Sunday by Tumbleweed King. I'm in charge of all the other selections that you see in the tips section. I can see what you mean by the confusion there and hope that clarifiess it a bit for you.

Haha, I may restrict my attention to the accumulator tips from Monday to Thursday from now on ?.  Do we have any stats available for the Tumbleweed King?

 

[The Equaliser]

1.15 Chelt Agent Valdez £3.20 at 9/2 with Bet365 (looks like a worthwhile punt)

I'm not playing in the 1.50 I do hope that Fanion Destruval wins for several PL supporters

2.25 Chelt Court Maid £7.10 win at 6/4 with Bet 365
2.25 Chelt Black Corton £1.50 win at 5/1 (expensive insurance bet)

Haha, wonderful to be reminded that alongside the classiest racing we have to encounter the toughest of competition.  No more of that for me, I'll plunder the lowliest of meetings to ply my trade if neccessary.

A quick bet for me now is the 5.15 at Southwell Drakefell £2 win at 12.00 Top rated RPR/Timeform.  Possible return of £21.56

Follow up

6.15 Sou Straightouttacompton £4 win at 4/1 with Bet365

=======================================================================================================

A complete blank today Court Maid being the biggest disappointment.  Loss on the day = £17.80 I need to streamline my selections a bit better.

No multiples today so balances remain the same.  The singles balance c/fwd is £493.05 (Bank £500)

Another day of quality racing tomorrow.  I am going to be very careful about my approach to this.  I probably won't just look at the lower class meetings referred to above since the other problem one has with these is that the horses can be unreliable.  I will look quickly at the races where the opposition to my possible selection(s) looks weak and will take it from there.  It may be best to choose from say three possibles for win bet purposes.  Have a good night's rest everyone

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Tedthewolf]

14 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Good luck guys lets hope we have plenty of winners  at this Chetenham 2 day meeting!

Ok 2 for  me today.

12.40 Cheltenham- A 40/1 that i think can outrun those big odds CLEMENICA 1/5 5places (Not BOG) Third run since joining Tim Vaughan stable and indeed 3rd run at the track a very decent 5th @ 66/1  in march  followed by a fall in October when still in with a chance  so the track suits  and i really can see this one  go well more than happy to have an e/w  punt at 40's.

 

4th @ 80/1 certainly did outun its odds!

Horses for courses comes to the fore again.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[The Equaliser]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with Nicky Henderson, he did have a 15/2 winner today despite another 2 losing favourites.

In the 1.50 at Cheltenham he has 2 runners, both best priced at 9/2. I'll go with MISTER FISHER, being the younger horse.

He also has 2 in the 2.17 at Doncaster. I'll skip his odds on favourite and go for the less fancied CLARENDON STREET at 9/1.

Very well done ?

[ipswich45]

Wow cracking ride in the Glenfarclas Cross Country (1500 Cheltenham)

Some Neck at 18/1 nearly got rid of amateur Ben Harvey early on in the race and pipped long time leader Defi Des Carres with Harry Bannister onboard by a neck,  De Forgotten One picked up late for 3rd after a poor early jumping round having backed into favourite just before the off

Edited December 11, 2020 by ipswich45
winners price added

[azzybear]

dark magic 5.30 looks like a good ew bet 

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

335 chelt

On the blind side  335 

Cotswold way   331 

Very interesting and classy looking race ....on the blind side looks a horse on the upgrade and handles Cheltenham so has a lot going for him hence fav ......cotswold way hasn't really fired for a while but handles Cheltenham and showed signs of a return to form last time and if so could be well treated now 

On the blind side 10pt win 5.9 betfair 

Cotswold way 10pt win 17.0 betfair 

2nd....??

[alancraik]

5 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections

BANGOR-ON-DEE 13:30 Accordingtogino 15/8 win up

CHELTENHAM 13:50 Top Notch 9/2 win up

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Storm Control 13/2 e/w 3 Places 1st

CHELTENHAM 15:35 On The Blind Side 4/1 win 2nd

plus e/w yankee

another that scored highly
BANGOR-ON-DEE 14:05 Poker Play 6/1 (discounted only 4 runners)

I need more than one to win to make a profit

[MCLARKE]

55 minutes ago, alancraik said:

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Storm Control 13/2 e/w 3 Places 1st

Almost threw it away on the run in, a nervous few seconds.

[Wildgarden]

615 southwell London Ew Betfair sp