Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October

[Darran]

It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.

Flemington R1 (12.40am)

With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.

Aysar 11/10 with William Hill

Flemington R3 (2am)

I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.

Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair

Flemington R4 (2.40am)

The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.

Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (4am)

I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.

Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.

September Run 3/1 with Bet365

Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair

Rosehill R6 (4.25am)

It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.

Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill

The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R7 (5.10am)

This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.

Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365

Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

Rosehill R9 (6.25am)

A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.

Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

 

[richard-westwood]

305ascot 

Malaya   312 

Caius Marcius 310 

Sirbastapol  306 

Tricky race ....malaya has some good form over hurdles in the past so hopefully can put it together on the day ......sirbastapol is well fancied but caius Marcius is a big price and has been running some good races over chases and if he can transfer anywhere near back over hurdles then he could be too good for these ....interesting race 

Malaya 10pt win 6/1 will h

Caiusmarcius 10pt win 16/1 betv 

 

[Villa Chris]

1.55 Ascot , Capeland 11/4

3.05  Ascot,  Malaya , 11/2

 

two singles and the double 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

340 ascot 

Adrien Dupont 355

What more 353 

Black corton 353 

These  3 are a bit clear of the next horse and tbh I cant separate them because each has good and bad points....prices allow so I'll back all 3 

What more 5pt win 6/1 bet365 

Black corton 5pt win 13/2 betvic 

Adrien Dupont 5pt win  12/1 betvic 

6x2pt win doubles with above race 

[Valiant Thor]

 

IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now

Edited October 31, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Tumbleweed King]

1-20 Ascot TRINCOMALEE

Trincomalee is a progressive seven-year-old who warmed up for this just a few weeks ago when making his seasonal reappearance at Warwick. He was held up at the back and could never truly find a rhythm to get himself involved. This step back up in trip will bring his stamina into play and that may well bring about some further improvement. Bryony Frost retains the ride having partnered him at Warwick last time and with the ground very much in their favour, a big run cannot be ruled out. Lucy Wadham has her yard in decent form and has sent out two winners from her last five runners and there should be more to come given that the combination are set to receive weight from market rivals including Dr Sanderson, Falco Blitz and Smarty Wild.

 

3-05 Ascot SEBASTOPOL

Sebastopol is remarkably consistent and from just six starts for Tom Lacey, he has won three of them. The biggest win of his career to date came when he was last seen winning the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh back in February. He likes to attack from off a strong pace and that should be guaranteed given the presence of both Byron Flyer and Caius Marcius. Sebastopol may have to overcome a lengthy absence, but he has done that before given that he won on his first outing at Wincanton last year. Richard Johnson will be keen to get cover for his mount and the combination will likely work their way into contention as the race progresses. This trip looks an absolute minimum for the improving six-year-old and there ought to be more to come on ground that looks ideal.

 

3-40 Ascot VALTOR

Valtor has won at the first time of asking for the last couple of seasons so Nicky Henderson is likely to have him primed and ready to go yet again this afternoon. Despite being an eleven-year-old he is clearly showing all the right signs at home to prove he can be competitive at this level and he is running a couple of pounds from below his last winning mark. Any further rain that falls would certainly be in his favour and the booking of Aidan Coleman certainly catches the eye. Valtor has run at Ascot three times in the past and has as yet to finish outside of the first two placings and he looks a more likely to run his true race that his stablemate Might Bite. The yard won this with Roberto Goldback in 2012 and like the selection, he was a veteran when he won this. Running in the familiar all green colours of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede this former French chaser can make his presence felt.

[Zilzalian]

18 hours ago, Darran said:

It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.

Flemington R1 (12.40am)

With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.

Aysar 11/10 with William Hill

Flemington R3 (2am)

I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.

Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair

Flemington R4 (2.40am)

The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.

Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (4am)

I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.

Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.

September Run 3/1 with Bet365

Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair

Rosehill R6 (4.25am)

It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.

Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill

The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R7 (5.10am)

This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.

Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365

Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

Rosehill R9 (6.25am)

A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.

Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

 

I have been backing Ashrun for the MC for a couple of months, do i assume it has got to win this race (Holthem) to get in? must admit to being a bit lacking in knowledge on Australian racing and how they qualify. also do you know what the going is like at the moment?

[calva decoy]

205 Newmarket - STAR IMAGE 22/1 ew bet365

Quirk bet , why has T.Mullins sent 1 over from Ireland for this Listed Fillies ?

The most exposed in the field but a winner on heavy over 7f.

320 Weth - SAM SPINNER 15/2 ew betfair.

Drifting like a barge ( was 3's opening show ) but is a previous CD winner , is unbeaten over the larger obstacles , will probably need a bit more rain which he's likely to get , place claims .

355 Weth - ALWAYS RESOLUTE 22/1 ew bet365 ( 5 places 1/4 odds )

Has had a spin on the flat 20 days ago so should have blown a few cobwebs off , has won over CD 1 of only 2 in the field , claimer takes a handy 7Lbs off.

 

That's why I avoid October ?

Edited October 31, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today at Newmarket:

12.55 Side Shot (FD) £2 win at 5/2
1.30 Galactic Glow (WB) £2 win at 9/2
2.05 Mystery Angel (FD) £2 win at 7/2

1 x £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return of £146.37

Total multiples = £4

Total singles stakes = £6

Total stakes  = £10

Good luck to all punters at Newmarket today.  It looks like heavy going ?

===============================================================================================

Three seconds so nothing gained at all.  I am going to lay all my selections in- running at 1.95 for a stake of £10.20 in the future.  This means that if one gets close but fails then I get back my stake money.  Should I be watching the racing I will cancel the other two bets if the first bet gets matched and loses.  Should the first bet win I would let the second bet run and cancel the third if that one gets matched and loses.  should the second one win I will repeat the same again.  Very frustrating to get beaten on all my selections.

Anyway multiples = £4 loss and the balance is now £622.69 (Bank £800)

The loss on singles is £6 so the balance is now £149.39 (Bank £400) I don't think I can get back to B/E now but will soldier on

Three jumps meetings tomorrow with an inspection at Lingfield.  Possibly do a Trixie and win bets if I get the time to do so.

   

 

Edited October 31, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Going out today so no time for write ups I'm afraid...all prices Bet365:
 

12.25 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Tintern Theatre @ 15/2

1.20 Ascot - 1pt e/w Copper Coin @ 10/1

1.35 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Hes No Trouble @ 15/2

3.05 Ascot - 1pt e/w Countister @ 13/2

3.20 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Definitly Red @ 11/1

3.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Valtor @ 7/1

 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

205 Newmarket - STAR IMAGE 22/1 ew bet365

Quirk bet , why has T.Mullins sent 1 over from Ireland for this Listed Fillies ?

The most exposed in the field but a winner on heavy over 7f.

 

I agree with you on that one Calva don't bet on these  type of races usually  but  looks to have a decent e/w chance and 22's looks decent  value not  sending over for nothing will love the mucky conditions. Also like the other 2 Irish trained horses running  over the jumps at Wetherby today 12,25 Hear No Evil 16/1 & 2.45 Decor Irlandais 8/1 both look to have good e/w chances.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

22 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

I agree with you on that one Calva don't bet on these  type of races usually  but  looks to have a decent e/w chance and 22's looks decent  value not  sending over for nothing will love the mucky conditions. Also like the other 2 Irish trained horses running  over the jumps at Wetherby today 12,25 Hear No Evil 16/1 & 2.45 Decor Irlandais 8/1 both look to have good e/w chances.

I also looked at both the N.Kelly horses especially DECOR IRLANDAIS who is 1 of 2 who've had a recent run but the trainer has sent out 57 without a winner put me off , ran well in Listed at Killarney 70 days ago on good to yeilding & is versatile on going , probably see how Hear No Evil goes in the 12.25 & the market & maybe an each way punt , good luck with you bets today .

[Tedthewolf]

1.30 NM  very heavy  track will suit Doutado 7/1 close 2nd lto (winner also in this race this)  should go close her again and is my e/w play in the race,

3.55 WH one near the bottom  of the wieghts with a 7lb claimer attracted my attenion Henrietto Bell 12/1 e/w ran fair race lto step back in trip should suit. 

3.40 Asct the two Henderson runners for me Valtor win 13/2 & Might Bite 20/1 

Best of luck all punters!

 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

I also looked at both the N.Kelly horses especially DECOR IRLANDAIS who is 1 of 2 who've had a recent run but the trainer has sent out 57 without a winner put me off , ran well in Listed at Killarney 70 days ago on good to yeilding & is versatile on going , probably see how Hear No Evil goes in the 12.25 & the market & maybe an each way punt , good luck with you bets today .

Hear no evil  skoots up at 16/1

[calva decoy]

1 minute ago, Tedthewolf said:

Hear no evil  skoots up at 16/1

??????????????? ?16 claps , very well done , good start to your weekend ?

[Wildgarden]

500 Wolverhampton - rockesbury 11/4 paddy power / others

Race between my pick and frow since Stella Barclays horses are terrible on all wetaher.

Siding with rockesbury had okay 4th recently and looked at the running at 7f now down in distance to stop frow who is up 8lb.

[black rabbit]

Aye Right  3 20 weth  1pt win  @ 16/1 betfair 

Caius Carius  3 05 Ascot  1pt  win  @  14/1   betfair  

Valtor   3 40  Ascot  1 pt win  @ 10/1 betfair 

 

P/L  =  +69 pts

[Villa Chris]

Barely had to work for that did Cyrname, briefly shaken up on the run in, but had plenty in hand. Proved a few wrong. 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

 

IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now

Good call.....2nd 2nd 4th for me ....noooooo?

[Valiant Thor]

20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

 

IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now

 
Byron Flyer just missed out on the 4 places paid as did Mister Malarkey on the 5 places paid
Valtor seemed to make a bad landing 3 or 4 out dropping away quickly after that
With Teqany a NR  I got an ew single on Regal Encore which virtually returns my stake on the races so no harm done .
 

[richard-westwood]

530 wolv 

Luscifer  277

The British lion 275 

These 2 are well clear and really should be fighting this out 

Luscifer 14pts won 2.92 betfair 

The British lion 6pts win 12.0 betfair 

2pt reverse forecast 

Edited October 31, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

500 Wolverhampton - rockesbury 11/4 paddy power / others

Race between my pick and frow since Stella Barclays horses are terrible on all wetaher.

Siding with rockesbury had okay 4th recently and looked at the running at 7f now down in distance to stop frow who is up 8lb.

Led from the out and didn't have enough to keep it going, possibly not the best option to make the running placed 4-1. Frow won as the other main rival.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Wildgarden

[Darran]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I have been backing Ashrun for the MC for a couple of months, do i assume it has got to win this race (Holthem) to get in? must admit to being a bit lacking in knowledge on Australian racing and how they qualify. also do you know what the going is like at the moment?

Yes Ashrun does get in for winning that race as it was a win and your in race. He only ran today because it was the only way of getting into Tuesday's race. Going was a Good4 today and the weather is looking hot for Monday and Tuesday so it will be good to firm and maybe even quicker on Tuesday.

Good news is that he escaped a penalty, bad news is he is drawn 24/24 and will need a very special ride to win from there.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

Yes Ashrun does get in for winning that race as it was a win and your in race. He only ran today because it was the only way of getting into Tuesday's race. Going was a Good4 today and the weather is looking hot for Monday and Tuesday so it will be good to firm and maybe even quicker on Tuesday.

Good news is that he escaped a penalty, bad news is he is drawn 24/24 and will need a very special ride to win from there.

Not sure that ground will suit but bets were  already on anyway so at least i get a run for my money, like u say will have to be a very good performance to win but i think it was expected to win last week but came up short thats why i wondered about the win and ur in bit. I first saw it last year when he took it to france it was a big price and won a decent race quite well so alls not lost and will have a saver on Finche.

[Darran]

18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Not sure that ground will suit but bets were  already on anyway so at least i get a run for my money, like u say will have to be a very good performance to win but i think it was expected to win last week but came up short thats why i wondered about the win and ur in bit. I first saw it last year when he took it to france it was a big price and won a decent race quite well so alls not lost and will have a saver on Finche.

If he had won the Geelong Cup then he would likely have got a penalty that would have seen him get in the race without running today. He was probably under handicapped to start with which in this case was a bad thing. One horse in recent times won on the 3 day back up but that’s also going to be a factor. Prince Of Arran did place last year though after winning the same race.

[calva decoy]

48 minutes ago, Darran said:

If he had won the Geelong Cup then he would likely have got a penalty that would have seen him get in the race without running today. He was probably under handicapped to start with which in this case was a bad thing. One horse in recent times won on the 3 day back up but that’s also going to be a factor. Prince Of Arran did place last year though after winning the same race.

I was at a stable visit at Charlie Fellowes when he paraded Prince Of Aaran & his dream was to run him in the Melbourne Cup which he's done & if I remember correctly been placed in the last 2 renewals .

He's currently 9/1 with bet365 each way ( 4 places ) NRNB , drawn in stall 1 is good but maybe not for a hold up horse .

Are spectators allowed to attend so soon after lockdown has been ermm , unlocked ?

Edited October 31, 2020 by calva decoy

[Darran]

15 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

I was at a stable visit at Charlie Fellowes when he paraded Prince Of Aaran & his dream was to run him in the Melbourne Cup which he's done & if I remember correctly been placed in the last 2 renewals .

He's currently 9/1 with bet365 each way ( 4 places ) NRNB , drawn in stall 1 is good but maybe not for a hold up horse .

Are spectators allowed to attend so soon after lockdown has been ermm , unlocked ?

Yep 2nd last year and 3rd the year before. He grows a leg in Australia and his run in the Caulfield Cup was massive. 1 probably isn't ideal as he will need the gaps, but he has a strong chance again.

Melbourne has just come out of a 100 day lockdown, but no spectators or even owners are allowed on track.

[Zilzalian]

On 10/31/2020 at 9:44 PM, Zilzalian said:

Not sure that ground will suit but bets were  already on anyway so at least i get a run for my money, like u say will have to be a very good performance to win but i think it was expected to win last week but came up short thats why i wondered about the win and ur in bit. I first saw it last year when he took it to france it was a big price and won a decent race quite well so alls not lost and will have a saver on Finche.

Can understand how you may have got this draw wrong (24th to qualify) Darran just checked and it (Ashrun) doesn't line up as 24 of 24. am i missing something? Gotta hold my hands up here your dead right bet365 have got the numbers all wrong on their racecard. RP have it right.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Zilzalian
wrong info