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Champions League Predictions > Aug 12th - 15th

StevieDay1983
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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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Check out the latest odds for the upcoming Champions League Quarter-Final matches. One-off games taking place across Portugal over the next week. There is not enough data to make any ELO ratings worth publishing so we need to make our calls based off our own research. Tell us what predictions you have for these games! :ok

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Magic0024

Magic0024

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Atalanta have won their last 4 matches in Champions League.
PSG have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their last 8 matches in Champions League.
Atalanta have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches in Champions League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Atalanta’s last 3 games in Champions League.

You can find interesting 39 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 12.08.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-08-2020-20274

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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Atalanta vs PSG

The Champions League Quarter-Finals kick-off tonight with an 8pm BST kick-off between in-form Serie A side Atalanta and Ligue 1 reigning champions PSG at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. On paper, many will have written off the Italian side but they come into this as a team punching at this level both domestically and in Europe so the French champions should tread with caution.

Atalanta have had a season to remember already reaching this stage of the Champions League and qualifying for next season's competition after a 3rd placed finish in the league. Head coach Gian Piero Gasperini leads his team into this game with just 1 defeat in their last 18 matches. The potency of La Dea's attack is their main strength with the team having scored an average of 2.5 goals per game in the league including scoring 47 goals in 19 away matches. It was also 4 goals scored in both legs of their last 16 tie with Valencia. One fantastic achievement for the club is that they're the first Champions League debutants since Leicester in 2016/17 to reach the Quarter-Finals and the first Italian debutants since Lazio in 1999/2000.

PSG will come into this game with no competitive action under their belts since Ligue 1 was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic back in February. It poses an intriguing problem for head coach Thomas Tuchel. The French side come into this game having lost 8 of their last 16 knockout matches in this competition having conceded 30 goals. Playing against Italian sides is also their struggle because they've failed to win or even keep a clean sheet against Serie A teams in their last six meetings. The pressure is really on PSG here. Not only is it the trophy their fans are craving having won everything else going but they've also not managed to reach the Semi-Finals of this competition since 1994/95.

I genuinely think the odds on Atalanta getting something from this game are too tempting to ignore. My head still feels that PSG are the sensible bet but if you know me on this forum then you'll appreciate I love the prospect of a romantic tale in football. My one concern is how Atalanta will react to the final day 2-0 defeat to Inter Milan. I just think that they'll be sharper than a PSG team returning to competitive action for the first time since February. Oh my God, it feels like 2017/18 again with Atalanta wooing me in Europe! I don't like this!

Atalanta Double Chance @ 2.00 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.30 with BetVictor

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Magic0024

Magic0024

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

RBL are undefeated in their last 6 matches in Champions League.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 86% of Atletico’s last 7 games in Champions League.
RBL have scored at least 2 goals in 83% of their last 6 matches in Champions League.

You can find interesting 18 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 13.08.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-13-08-2020-20277

 

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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I'm swayed by the arguments that Atalanta are underrated tonight and have split my stake across the following bets:

Atalanta to qualify at 2.68 on BF

Atalanta to score >1.5 goals at 6/4 with 888 (and widely available)

Buy Atalanta goal rush at 15 with SPIN (0 for no goals, 10 for one then 20, 33, 50, 70 and 100 up to 6+ goals)

I also think (as per post in systems and strategy) that this is a game where 4-6 cards shown is more likely than not so have backed that at 21/20 with Hills.

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waynecoyne

waynecoyne

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27 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

:\ Oh well, barring the fact that Atalanta at least scored one goal to minimise the loss on the buy of their goal rush, that went as bad as it could have gone. 

 

Psg were poor i thought @harry_rag and only saved by the introduction of mbappe. I think they will be heading out in the next round as the midfield is functional at best and they rely too heavily on neymar and mbappe.

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid

Well, that first game in the Champions League Quarter-Finals was a bit of a last minute kick in the teeth. Next up, we have German Bundesliga side RB Leipzig versus Spanish La Liga team Atletico Madrid in an 8pm BST kick-off on Thursday night at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon. The winners of this tie will play PSG after their last gasp 2-1 win over Atalanta last night.

RB Leipzig come into this game knowing that Champions League football is guaranteed for next season after their 3rd placed finish in their domestic league. However, with star striker Timo Werner set to leave the club for Chelsea next season there is a desire to see the club go all the way with this talented group of players at their disposal now. Head coach Julian Nagelsmann will want to see his team score more goals from open play with 50% of their last 8 goals in this competition being penalties. You can expect this to be a tight game with RB Leipzig keeping three clean sheets in their last five matches in the Champions League.

Atletico Madrid have come so close down the years to winning the big prize but after a disappointing domestic league campaign that saw them finish in 3rd place and only ending up ahead of 4th placed Sevilla on goal difference there is a feeling that this could be a chance for Diego Simeone's side to steal the trophy they've always yearned for under the most unlikely of circumstances. Los Rojiblancos found some form to save their European aspirations going unbeaten in their last 11 games of the campaign. Atleti also have a 100% progression record in the knockout stages of the Champions League against German clubs. It's also four clean sheets in their last 7 matches in this competition.

This is another tough one to call. RB Leipzig are entering their maiden Champions League Quarter-Final encounter against an Atletico Madrid side that are competing at this stage for the fifth time in the past 7 seasons. Only Barcelona and Bayern Munich have a better record in this competition over this period. I'm not sure I can see either team taking the win over 90 minutes so we could see extra-time and even penalties deciding this one.

Draw @ 3.18 with Novibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.57 with BetVictor

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Polish ref Marciniak is in charge tonight. To simplify things he "likes a pen" and is nothing exceptional in terms of cards. I was a bit surprised at the low spread quotes for tonight's game (you can buy bookings at 48 when I was expecting low to mid 50s) and, despite low totals in his 4 games this season, I still think there's some upside when you consider his overall stats in UEFA competitions.

I've backed a penalty taken at 12/5 with Hills and bought penalty goal minutes at 14 with SPIN. I've also backed >40 booking points at 10/11 with PP.

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Magic0024

Magic0024

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Bayern have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 5 matches in Champions League.
Bayern have won their last 8 matches in Champions League.
Barcelona are undefeated in their last 8 matches in Champions League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 89% of Bayern’s last 9 games in Champions League.
Bayern have scored at least 3 goals in 88% of their last 8 matches in Champions League.
Bayern are undefeated in their last 8 matches in Champions League.

You can find interesting 30 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 14.08.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-14-08-2020-20312

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waynecoyne

waynecoyne

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15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Polish ref Marciniak is in charge tonight. To simplify things he "likes a pen" and is nothing exceptional in terms of cards. I was a bit surprised at the low spread quotes for tonight's game (you can buy bookings at 48 when I was expecting low to mid 50s) and, despite low totals in his 4 games this season, I still think there's some upside when you consider his overall stats in UEFA competitions.

I've backed a penalty taken at 12/5 with Hills and bought penalty goal minutes at 14 with SPIN. I've also backed >40 booking points at 10/11 with PP.

some great calls there @harry_rag

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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Barcelona vs Bayern Munich

The Champions League Quarter-Final action continues for another night here when La Liga runners up Barcelona host Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in an 8pm BST kick-off on Friday night at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. European ties don't get much bigger than this and we'll see one of the favourites for this competition go out here. The winners will play the victors of the Manchester City versus Lyon clash.

Barcelona have had a season to forget simply because they lost out to Real Madrid in the battle for the league title. Quique Setien managed to avoid a potential banana skin in the last round with a 4-2 aggregate win over Napoli. This is a whole new proposition though. Defensive issues continue to plague this Barcelona side with the Catalan team only managing to keep two clean sheets in their 8 Champions League matches so far. If Barcelona win this and reach the Semi-Finals then it will be the first time they have reached that stage of the competition in two consecutive seasons since their 2012/13 run.

Bayern Munich are looking very strong right now. Hans-Dieter Flick's side humiliated Chelsea in the previous round by a 7-1 score-line. The Bavarian side now look to continue an 18-game winning run against the Spanish team. It's a Bayern team that is full of goal scoring potential with an average of 3.9 goals scored per game in the Champions League this season and boast a 100% record in this competition. The Germans haven't won this competition since their success in the 2012/13 season but they are arguably in their strongest position yet to break that duck.

This will be the first meeting between these two sides in this competition since the 2014/15 season. On that occasion, it was Barcelona who prevailed victorious but it is Bayern Munich that Barcelona have lost more Champions League matches against than any other team having lost 5 of their 8 encounters. I am expecting that bad record to get even worse with a solid Bayern Munich win here.

Bayern Munich to Win @ 2.05 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.10 with Betfair

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harry_rag

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Ok, let's see if tonight ends up a feast or famine night or somewhere in between.

In terms of match outcome, my first reaction was "how are Barca such a big price against anyone on a neutral ground"? Due consideration certainly leads to an understanding of why Bayern are favourites tonight but I still dispute the extent to which this has been factored into the prices. Keeping it simple, I'm betting Barca to win.

In terms of goalscorers, a couple of firms have priced up the "star man" double of Lew and Messi both to score at 4/1, albeit to limited stakes. The best price anytime double would pay a shade under 3/1 and I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I'm happy to take the enhanced price as a reasonable value bet. I also "fancy" Suarez tonight, though not at the best generally available price of 17/10. I'll be looking to get 5/2 or better on the exchanges (Fred going 5/2 under their daily specials for the game).

Finally, what's on the cards (geddit) for bookings related markets? Well, the spreads are pitched at 49-52 and if you gave me a free bet I'd favour a buy but there are a couple of fixed odds options I prefer. I have dutched 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 and >55 points at 17/10, both with Hills.This way I'm guaranteed a profit for at least 4 cards and, with a bit of luck, both bets land with something like 60-75 points coming in. Ref Skomina has shown 4-6 cards in 11 of his last 17 CL games.

Barcelona to win at 13/5 with 888

Lewandowski and Messi both to score at 4/1 with Hills/Lads

Suarez to score at 5/2 Fred (aiming for better on exchanges)

4-6 cards shown at 23/20 and >55 booking points at 17/10 both with Hills

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Magic0024

Magic0024

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Man City have won their last 3 matches in Champions League.
Man City have scored at least 2 goals in 82% of their last 17 matches in Champions League.
Man City are undefeated in their last 9 matches in Champions League.

You can find interesting 28 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 15.08.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-15-08-2020-20329

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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Manchester City vs Lyon

The final match of the Champions League Quarter-Finals is coming up on Saturday night when Premier League runners up Manchester City take on Ligue 1 side Lyon in an 8pm BST kick-off at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon. Whoever manages to navigate their way through this tie will be greeted with a lovely little clash with the dominant Bayern Munich after the German side's incredible 8-2 win over Barcelona last night.

Manchester City have looked top draw in recent weeks. Pep Guardiola is setting his team up for a title challenge to regain the Premier League crown from Liverpool next season but right now it's all about that elusive Champions League trophy. The Citizens are undefeated in this season's competition with 6 wins and 2 draws as well as averaging 2.5 goals per game in the competition this year. This is the fourth time in the last five seasons that City have reached the Quarter-Finals of this competition. However, they will need to be wary against a Lyon side that they have played twice already and failed to beat on both occasions.

Lyon are the heavy underdogs coming into this game. Head coach Rudi Garcia saw his team labour to a 7th placed finish in the league last season when it was cancelled early due to covid-19. The new campaign begins next weekend and the French side have a massive opportunity to make this last season one to remember despite the poor league position. This is a Lyon side that has goals in it. They have scored in all but one of their Champions League matches so far. Their away goals win against Juventus after a 2-2 draw in the previous round is an example of how well they can play. It is the club's first appearance at this stage of the competition since 2009/10 and that was the only occasion in four attempts that they have progressed past the Quarter-Finals.

There's no denying that Lyon deserve all the credit in the world for their elimination of Juventus in the previous round. Does it quite match the clinical nature of Manchester City's 4-2 aggregate win over Real Madrid? Maybe. It certainly showed that they shouldn't be taken lightly. I still feel the winner of this year's competition will come from this side of the draw and it'll be either Manchester City or Bayern Munich. I feel Lyon hit their peak against Juventus and they'll fall short here.

Manchester City to Win & BTTS @ 2.80 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Raheem Sterling @ 2.06 with Unibet

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harry_rag

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Barcelona to win at 13/5 with 888

Lewandowski and Messi both to score at 4/1 with Hills/Lads

Suarez to score at 5/2 Fred (aiming for better on exchanges)

4-6 cards shown at 23/20 and >55 booking points at 17/10 both with Hills

Neither feast nor famine last night. On the one hand I got the result slightly wrong and Messi failed to do his bit, on the other Suarez did oblige and both cards bets landed. Enough for a modest profit on the game.

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allyhibs

allyhibs

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On 8/13/2020 at 3:08 PM, harry_rag said:

Polish ref Marciniak is in charge tonight. To simplify things he "likes a pen" and is nothing exceptional in terms of cards. I was a bit surprised at the low spread quotes for tonight's game (you can buy bookings at 48 when I was expecting low to mid 50s) and, despite low totals in his 4 games this season, I still think there's some upside when you consider his overall stats in UEFA competitions.

I've backed a penalty taken at 12/5 with Hills and bought penalty goal minutes at 14 with SPIN. I've also backed >40 booking points at 10/11 with PP.

Nice @harry_rag, or should i call you the penalty guru :)

Backed the penalty and it was never in doubt :ok

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allyhibs

allyhibs

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23 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Barcelona vs Bayern Munich

The Champions League Quarter-Final action continues for another night here when La Liga runners up Barcelona host Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in an 8pm BST kick-off on Friday night at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. European ties don't get much bigger than this and we'll see one of the favourites for this competition go out here. The winners will play the victors of the Manchester City versus Lyon clash.

Barcelona have had a season to forget simply because they lost out to Real Madrid in the battle for the league title. Quique Setien managed to avoid a potential banana skin in the last round with a 4-2 aggregate win over Napoli. This is a whole new proposition though. Defensive issues continue to plague this Barcelona side with the Catalan team only managing to keep two clean sheets in their 8 Champions League matches so far. If Barcelona win this and reach the Semi-Finals then it will be the first time they have reached that stage of the competition in two consecutive seasons since their 2012/13 run.

Bayern Munich are looking very strong right now. Hans-Dieter Flick's side humiliated Chelsea in the previous round by a 7-1 score-line. The Bavarian side now look to continue an 18-game winning run against the Spanish team. It's a Bayern team that is full of goal scoring potential with an average of 3.9 goals scored per game in the Champions League this season and boast a 100% record in this competition. The Germans haven't won this competition since their success in the 2012/13 season but they are arguably in their strongest position yet to break that duck.

This will be the first meeting between these two sides in this competition since the 2014/15 season. On that occasion, it was Barcelona who prevailed victorious but it is Bayern Munich that Barcelona have lost more Champions League matches against than any other team having lost 5 of their 8 encounters. I am expecting that bad record to get even worse with a solid Bayern Munich win here.

Bayern Munich to Win @ 2.05 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.10 with Betfair

Backed both of these Steve, nobody could've predicted the final scoreline though, Bayern look unstoppable atm :ok

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Can't see past the obvious City win here, probably with no shortage of goals.

Strongly fancying a decent display from Sterling, backed him anytime at 2.1 and to score 2 or more at 13/2 PP.

Also took the Hills "double odds" special of Sterling and Jesus both to score and >1 card for Lyon at 9/1.

On a gut feel level I do fancy a pen in this game but, given the ref's stats and the prices on offer, I can't bring myself to back it. Makkelie is also a low cards ref which is reflected by a relatively low line. That said, factor in what's at stake and Lyon coming into this with less competitive games and I can see some cards. I've backed >40 points at 5/4 with Lads (boosted from 6/5) and 30+ Lyon points at 15/8 and 40+ at 9/2, both with Skybet.

Finally, followed a tip for Depay to score at 5.4. Has scored in his last 6 CL appearances and I'm not convinced City will keep a clean sheet.

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