BillyHills Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 We will have a separate thread for each day of the Cheltenham Festival If you have a fancy for any of the races for this day then this is the place to post them Don't forget we have Ante Post Previews for each race plus daily detailed racecards The PL Rating Tips will be published 48hrs prior to race-day Ante-Post Race Previews Daily Racecards PL Racing Tips Day 4 action Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 Going to look at the trends for 2 handicaps each day 2.10: 2m0f179y Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+) Previous Winners Ratings Record Trends 10/10 Aged 8yo or less 9/10 started double figure price 9/10 carried 11st 5 or less 8/10 rated 134-139 8/10 had not ran for at least 7 weeks (last four winners had at least 80 days off) 6/10 Irish trained 16/22 first 4 last time (1st or 2nd) 16/22 ran at least 4 times this season 21/22 Had won over 2m or further previously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 4.50 : 2m0f62y Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+) Previous Winners Ratings Record Trends 9/10 Aged 9 or lower 9/10 IRE or FR Bred 8/10 rated between 7/10 English trained Last 6 winners had at least 54 days off 14/22 Placed first 4 last time 17/22 ran at least 3 times this season 21/22 Won over 2m or further 19/22 Had ran over 2m4f previously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 2.10: County Hurdle Trends Trends 10/10 Aged 8yo or less we lose 9, 23 9/10 carried 11st 5 or less we lose 1,2,3,4 8/10 rated 134-139 we lose 26,27,28 plus 5-12 8/10 had not ran for at least 7 weeks (last four winners had at least 80 days off) we lose 13, 14, 15, 16, 22 6/10 Irish trained 16/22 first 4 last time (1st or 2nd) we lose 17, 21, 24 16/22 ran at least 4 times this season we lose 18, 20, 21/22 Had won over 2m or further previously Selections 1pt EW Le Ligerien 33/1 bet365 1pt EW Sir Valentine 25/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Triumph Goshen 255 Aspire tower 249 Sir psycho 248 Goshen looks to have all the cards here and should make a bold bid Goshen 10pts win 7/2 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 450 Grand Annual Chase 9/10 Aged 9 or lower we lose 6, 14, 15, 19 9/10 IRE or FR Bred we lose 17 8/10 rated between 138/147 lose 1-9 7/10 English trained lose 10, 17 Last 6 winners had at least 54 days off lose 12,13, 16, 20, 21, 22 Selections (first 5) 1pt EW Ballywood 25/1 PP 1pt EW Adrrastos 25/1 Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 County hurdle Buildmeupbuttercup 235 Oakley 233 Sir Valentine 233 Last day of the festival so lets go for a biggy Build me 10pts ew 14/1 willew10 Oakley 10pts ew 40/1 lads Sir Valentine 10pts ew 25/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Grand annual Typed all form in and highlited must have experience ofvchelt which seems to be a big factor in previous years .....left 1 horse clear Ballywood .. Who bh has picked above too so that's good enough for me Ballywood 10pts ew 25/1 corals yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 Ratings yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroni Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 hi @BillyHills i'm wondering about the trends on the 2:10, are the selections the ones that meet most of the trends? as i thought they failed the "had not ran for at least 7 weeks" or am i just being dumb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old codger Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) Hi all Here is my next selection. 330 Cheltenham Al boum photo 1 point at 3 bog Expect a golden repeat Current state W5L1 Bank 106.67 Super horse. Second and third probably future winners of the Gold Cup. So W6L1 Bank now 109.97 These selections have a high strike rate and as you can see generate good profits. There are not many of them that meet my criteria. Around 4 or 5 a month. Edited March 13, 2020 by Old codger Update kroni and Point the way 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Yesterday worked out well, albeit some horses I had reservations about won (Samcro & Min) and a couple I thought would be certainties (Frodon EW & Paisely Park) were well beaten. Either way, it was a good day and even if I dont win a penny today I will still be walking away with a few quid in my pocket! Triumph Hurdle Solo 145 Aspire Tower 145 Allmankind 143 Goshen 143 A Wave of The Sea 140 Sir Psycho 140 There are two I am not keen on for this and they are Goshen and Aspire Tower, the former looking like a dodgy jumper and the other having fallen last time out. They are plenty short enough with those concerns. There is a lot of pace so this could set up for more of a closer like Solo or A Wave of The Sea. The Skelton horse has done nothing but impress me so far and so I will go with him as the pace horse and Solo as the off the pace horse. It's not a race to go big with though. County Hurdle Aramon (W) - Likely to run a big race. Has Cheltenham form, top trainer and jockey and his form makes this mark look workable. You dont see many Grade 1 winners in a race like this, especially when their latest run produced a Grade 1 winner and Grade 1 placed horse at this meeting. Embittered (EW) - A horse who hasnt quite made it at the top level who ran with promise despite being slightly hampered in a good race last time out. Price looks a bit big to me. Stolen Silver (EW) - I would be keener on this horse if his stable had done a bit better here this week but he placed behind Chantry House, beat the Supreme 6th and then probably got caught out a little for pace on good ground int he Betfair Hurdle where it can be difficult to make ground up from the rear. He has been dropped 2lb for that and he must go closer today. Ciel De Neige (W) - I can't believe how much the price has collapsed on this one. Another Betfair Hurdle runner who probably got to the front a little too soon.Only up 4lb, placed in the Fred Winter last season and has the right connections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Albert Bartlett Thyme Hill 152 Latest Exhibition 150 Monkfish 150 Ramses De Teille 150 The Cashel Man 150 Janidil 150 Cobbles Way 147 This is a tough and competitive race and again wouldn't be one that I would be completely confident about. Ramses De Teille has to be hugely respected. He stays, he has plenty of experience, he is tough but he is a Pipe horse and I would like to see more evidence that they are flying. He must be a very solid EW contender. The two I will chance for the win are two very similar horses in Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill looks the obvious horse. Champion Bumper placed, and this year he has beaten a range of impressive enough horses being strongest at the finish. My biggest concern with this horse is how badly the Hobbs stable is performing here. He has had winners outside of the festival but his biggest hopes here have flopped. I think the current price takes an element of that into account though. Latest Exhibition looks the strongest of the Irish. He ran 2nd to Abacadabras over 16f, which is some performance when considering the trip they are running over this week, he beat a Grade 2 winner, going away over a stiff 20f and he ran similarly over 22f in a race where the 5th was running a big race in the Supreme. The rest have lofty ratings but have either been beaten by one of these two or havent been tested in a tough enough environment for my liking. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Gold Cup Al Boum Photo 178 Clan Des Obeaux 178 Kemboy 178 Lostintranslation 175 Delta Work 173 Santini 173 What a Gold Cup this is going to be. Al Boum Photo is bidding to repeat his win from last year and he would appear to have solid claims to do so. In the back of my mind he is still a horse that will make mistakes, as he showed at Punchestown, and whilst he did it well last season he was 12/1 then and now is a quarter of that price and I think I can let him run at that price. The next three on the list also have question marks over them, CDO needs to show he can be his best on an undulating track, Kemboy needs to jump better and prefers better ground and the Tizzard's aren't firing. That then leaves the 2nd and 3rd from last years RSA who are the up-and-comers in this contest. Santini has always screamed at me as a Gold Cup horse. He had a poor prep for the RSA last season and I think he will improve again for this race. Delta Work has done nothing wrong this season either, dining at every Irish top table and due to how he wins (which isnt by much), his ratings probably don't show his true level of ability. Having won the Pertemps as a 5yo I think he will relish this longer trip and I can see him and the Henderson horse fighting it out at the finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 The last two are the final get out of jail free cards. Grand Annual Capeland (EW) - I am a little concerned that he hasn't done anything around here but his run in the JLT wasnt a terrible run and in fact, bar one quite bad error it would have be much better and that would have a been a bigger test than today. He has run two mighty handicap races this season at Ascot going up 10lb but his performances deserved it. He has then gone into graded races and whilst he was a bit poor on heavy at Ascot, he was impressive at Kempton in a messy race. Back in handicap company I can see this race being run to suit and then it will be a question as to whether the weight becomes too much for him up the hill. Ecclair De Beafeau (W) - This looks an obvious profile from this stable. Not quite good enough in graded races and then goes into a handicap and wins fairly handily. This was apparently the plan before that Leopardstown win, no doubt partly due to his huge run in the County Hurdle last season where he probably hit the front a bit too early and was starting to tire when unseating at the last. Croco Bay (Place) - Last years winner has great form in this race with his 4 attempts as follows: W,5,F,3. He is 13 now but his last run at Doncaster was as good his win in this last year and so he must have another great chance of going close. My main bet on him would be for a place only as surely he will find something too good at his age but there are some fancy prices on Betfair for him and I wouldnt put anyone off. Martin Pipe The final race of the day and I have quite a strong fancy in the form of Column of Fire (W). He stepped up from maiden company to run a big race at Leopardstown, the 2nd running in the Stayers, the 3rd placing yesterday behind Sire Du Berlais and the 5th looking set to go close before falling. That race was over further but a quickly run race over this trip will surely suit and I can see him powering up the hill. I do have two others for smaller stakes. The first is Espoir De Romay (EW) and Umbrigado (EW). The former is a horse firmly on the upgrade and the horse he beat has gone on to win a competitive enough handicap readily in the last couple of weeks. The stable have had a win and a place this week from limited runners. The latter is a Pipe horse that has been going up and down in trip and this finally looks right for him. He was impressive at Haydock when looking to run out of steam and then getting caught out for pace when not running that badly behind Not So Sleepy on heavy at Ascot. The last time he ran at this trip he ran less than 10l behind Reserve Tank in a Grade 1. There is a question over what he will find and aids have been applied but he is worth a tickle at current odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) ZANA 2 10 CHELT 1/4 PT EW 42/1 BETFAIR P/L ACCOUNT = + 130,5 PTS Edited March 13, 2020 by black rabbit update totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Richard Johnson stitched up like a kipper there. Not going to be my day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Tell me about it, I had that one as well as £50 on Goshen in the 1st ! yossa6133 and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Lostintranslation drifted to 11/1 at one point. Great value . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryanpete Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Would of been very interesting to see how this turned out if hazel hill wasnt a N/R Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 The last 2 races at Cheltenham 2 in each for me US AND THEM 12/1 & GINO TRAIL 22/1---UMBRIDRADO 10/1 & ANYTHING WILL DO 125/1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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