Serie A Predictions > Sep 29th - Oct 1st

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The weekend has a host of Serie A fixtures coming our way after the frantic midweek action. Check out the odds and ratings above then make your calls on what bets we should place for these upcoming matches! 

[StevieDay1983]

Sassuolo vs AC Milan

There are a couple of big games this weekend such as Roma versus Lazio and Juventus versus Napoli but the focus here is on the interesting encounter between high-flying Sassuolo and the underwhelming AC Milan in a 7:30pm kick-off this Sunday night at the Mapei Stadium.

Sassuolo are loving life this season. Roberto De Zerbi has come in after winning admirers for his possession-based attacking football at Benevento and he's breathed new ideas into this Sassuolo side. They are now in 3rd place after 6 league games with 3 wins in their last 4 league matches.

AC Milan have not quite enjoyed the start they wanted to. Gennaro Gattuso's side are proving hard to beat but are also struggling to pick up those vital wins. Since the opening day 3-2 defeat away to Napoli, Milan have gone unbeaten but have only drawn 4 of those 5 league games. That has seen them linger in 13th place but it's far from a disaster with a couple of wins certain to get them back amongst the contenders.

The main issue for I Rossoneri here is Sassuolo's strong home record. I Neroverdi have only lost once at home since 25th February of this year in the league. This season, it's been three very solid wins on home turf. A lot of critics are tipping AC Milan to win but I think Sassuolo could get something from this game.

Either way, it'll be a low-scoring affair. I want to back the draw because I think it's a result that neither side would be overly disappointed in getting. I also think that AC Milan could struggle to break down Sassuolo on their own patch. A narrow 1-0 win for either side or a low-scoring draw seems most likely. The football fan in me wants to back the home win but this is an AC Milan side that has proven they can go up against the best. I'm going to have to back the draw.

Draw @ 3.50 with Sportingbet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.14 with Unibet

@Pep004, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @the bastardian, @chris666, @thegeneral55, @Mindfulness, @stephen m, @teddybear3011, @jazzman02, @Bayern, @Xcout, @Valkovets, @MangoTheThird, @DonPaulo, @Franger83, @fhuefdsa, @dinero, @laprikon, and @scommetix, let us know your betting tips for these games. 

[malabgd]

Juventus FC v SSC Napoli

Juventus FC: Khedira (4/1 m, doubtful), Douglas Costa (4/0 m, suspended), De Sciglio (1/0 d), Spinazzola (0/0 d)

SSC Napoli: Meret (0/0 g), Ghoulam (0/0 d), Chiricheș (0/0 d), Younes (0/0 f)

 

Inter Milano v Cagliari Calcio

Inter Milano: Vrsaljko (2/0 d)

Cagliari Calcio: Rafael (0/0 g), Ceppitelli (1/0 d), Lykogiannis (2/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Roma scored in last 6 home games in Serie A.
Inter has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home games in Serie A.
Lazio has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 games in Serie A.
Cagliari has under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away games in Serie A.
Inter won their last 5 games in Serie A.

You can find interesting 100 Football Betting Streaks for 29.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-29-09-2018-11454

[betcatalog]

Both teams have very good aggressive lines, Roma have defensive gaps and easily accept the goal, and can score in the attack
AS ROMA vs SS LAZIO ROMA @@ Both team to score, odds 1.50

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Bologna has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 games in Serie A.
Udinese scored in last 3 games in Serie A.
Torino scored in last 4 games in Serie A.
Parma 1913 has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in Serie A.
Sassuolo won their last 4 home games in Serie A.

You can find interesting 117 Football Betting Streaks for 30.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-30-09-2018-11469

[betcatalog]

4 to 6 to score both teams home team, only to score both teams in Milan, can be repeated
US SASSUOLO CALCIO vs AC MILAN @@ Both team to score, odds 1.65

[Mindfulness]

Sassuolo V AC Milan

Sassuolo +0.25 AH @ 2.07 Matchbook

I just cannot understand why Milan are such big favourites in this situation. Sassuolo are playing some really good stuff this season under De Zerbi and they have the ability to cause Milan further problems in this match.

Milan's general play has been ok this season but too many individual errors have cost them defensively while their ability to convert chances is poor at the other end of the pitch. Basically they are bad in both boxes and that is not a good combination. What's more, a recent run of tepid results has piled pressure on the team and Gattuso really needs to win this encounter against Sassuolo. Problem is, if Milan push too hard in this one it will play into Sassuolo's hands as they are extremely effective with their counter-attacks. The Musacchio-Romagnoli centre-back partnership  has been very sketchy for Milan of late and Mattia Caldara is still out of action so it is unlikely the situation can be remedied soon. Milan also have issues upfront as Gonzalo Higuain is out injured while the likes of Borini and Cutrone are not fully fit.

Sassuolo may not finish 3rd and Milan may not finish 14th come the end of the season but I don't think this is a contest that will automatically restore parity. Milan's problems are numerous heading into this game and yet Sassuolo's price has drifted longer overnight?!?! This makes no sense to me, the market underestimates Sassuolo's qualities here, they have a clear advantage over Milan in the key metrics while ELO ratings also look promising for the home side. I have Sassuolo as marginal favourites for this game.

Should be a closely contested match and generally hard to predict. I was expecting a 0AH line for both teams but instead we're getting the home side on the +0.25AH line at odds against. Sassuolo +0.25 is the prudent move in my view.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Sampdoria has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home games in Serie A.
Spal 2013 lost their last 3 games in Serie A.
Sampdoria didn’t score in last 3 games in Serie A.
Sampdoria has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in Serie A.
Spal 2013 lost their last 3 away games in Serie A.

You can find interesting 46 Football Betting Streaks for 01.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-01-10-2018-11472

[Mindfulness]

On 28/09/2018 at 11:46 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Draw @ 3.50 with Sportingbet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.14 with Unibet

 

 

10 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Sassuolo +0.25 AH @ 2.07 Matchbook

 

[StevieDay1983]

Note to self: Sassuolo can do one for the rest of the season.

Nice one for having that awesome home record until we back you lads! Get in the Ligurian Sea!

[Mindfulness]

[cluelessG]

I will try a small bet on Under 2.5 goals in the Sampdoria - SPAL match today (odds 1.75 at bet365 and 1.8 at pinnacle).

SPAL are not prolific scorers but they they don't leak too many goals either. Only 1 of their 6 matches in Serie A this season has finished with over 2.5 goals - the 3:0 loss at Fiorentina (but Fiorentina have scored 14 goals in 7 matches, while Sampdoria have scored 9 in 6).

Sampdoria have allowed 3 goals in 6 matches in Serie A, keeping 3 clean sheets, that's not too shabby. Two of these matches finished with over 2.5 goals (3:0 home win against Napoli and 5:0 away at Frosinone).

Last season Sampdoria got a 2:0 home win against SPAL, both goals scored after 89 minutes of play.

So the odds look tempting, although there's the danger of the match ending in a 2:1 (if SPAL manage to score, Sampdoria should push for a win) or even 3:0.

[StevieDay1983]

47 minutes ago, cluelessG said:

I will try a small bet on Under 2.5 goals in the Sampdoria - SPAL match today (odds 1.75 at bet365 and 1.8 at pinnacle).

SPAL are not prolific scorers but they they don't leak too many goals either. Only 1 of their 6 matches in Serie A this season has finished with over 2.5 goals - the 3:0 loss at Fiorentina (but Fiorentina have scored 14 goals in 7 matches, while Sampdoria have scored 9 in 6).

Sampdoria have allowed 3 goals in 6 matches in Serie A, keeping 3 clean sheets, that's not too shabby. Two of these matches finished with over 2.5 goals (3:0 home win against Napoli and 5:0 away at Frosinone).

Last season Sampdoria got a 2:0 home win against SPAL, both goals scored after 89 minutes of play.

So the odds look tempting, although there's the danger of the match ending in a 2:1 (if SPAL manage to score, Sampdoria should push for a win) or even 3:0.

Looking forward to seeing how this does, @cluelessG!

[cluelessG]

Well, Sampdoria won 2:1 and the under 2.5 bet lost. I will blame it on the Sampdoria goalie as he failed to keep hold of the ball after a routine long-range shot by a SPAL player... the rebound went straight to another SPAL player who could hardly miss the net.

I watched the first 25-30 minutes of the game, it looked weird - it had a rhythm similar to an NFL match: let's run a little, stop for a foul, no rush to take it if you can talk to other players or the referee instead, let's run a little again, oh, here's another foul - let's have a discussion about it or talk to the VAR guys... Truth be told, SPAL did take one foul quickly which took Sampdoria by surprise and that's how the first goal was scored. No idea how it went in the second half, I switched to watching Bournemouth and Palace. Match stats say Sampdoria had 9 shots on target and SPAL had 4 (I assume 2 of these were in the attack that lead to their goal).

Edited October 1, 2018 by cluelessG
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