Wimbledon 2018

[MrCrossover]

Konta vs Cibulkova @3.06 with MarathonBet + Ostapenko vs Flipkens @2.10 with MarathonBet. 

 

Bet Type - DOUBLE @6.426

 

I think Cibulkova isnt such a big underdog like bookies think. I take that value.

About Ostapenko - nothing to say. Everybody knows its in her head - one day she will be the best in city, next day she will lose in pity.

 

Anyway - risk is high, but i like my chances.

Good Luck fellas, and hope Wimbledon is good for us!

 

EDIT - So i took Cibulkova and Ostapenko

Edited July 5, 2018 by MrCrossover

[MrCrossover]

And my boy Gulbis!

 

Dzumhur vs Gulbis. Gulbis to win @3.26 with MarathonBet#

 

Gulbis is playing his best tennis now in long time. He also said in recent interviews - this time he wants to win so bad. One of the last chances to prove, he still got the game. And Dzumhur offensive game leaves chances to my boy.

Im bias, but i like my chances.:)

 

[Robinnho]

CzechPunter, congrats for your double on Siniakova and Buzarnescu bets.  I saw that Siniakova was physically stretched in her very close win and she was also not mentally prepared to go any further in this slam.  Do you think Giorgi C. can take her down in 2 sets?

Thanks in advance and hope you reply soon.

[CzechPunter]

Hi there, I certainly can't complain. Buzarnescu/Siniakova/Robert all delivering, Bencic winning to keep the pre-season bet very much alive. Kukushkin lost, but alright, can't win them all. Just hoping the streak is going to continue.

Camila Giorgi (-2.5) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.80 with Bet365

I might be a fan of Siniakova, but @Robinnho is right, she's being stretched left and right, too many long matches and too little rest. I prefer the games handicap personally, because I can see Siniakova winning the first and then losing physically, but the key is to oppose Siniakova in one way or another imo. Giorgi is better than Jabeur.

Mihaela Buzarnescu (+3.5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.89 with Unibet

Any explanations needed? I don't think so.

Radu Albot (+2.5 sets) to beat John Isner at 1.78 with Pinnacle

Albot appears to have a certain knack against big serving guys, he's taken sets off the likes of Isner/Querrey/etc. before and the additional day of rest can only help him. Isner was shaky enough against Bemelmans for me to like this bet.

M.Raonic/D.Novak - Over 3.5 sets at 2.38 with Paddy Power

Novak appears to be on fire at the moment, two of the sets he played against Pouille were just unreal and the run might well continue on momentum alone. I don't think that he's going to beat Raonic, but the Canadian couldn't make much of an impact against Millman, so the overs look juicy to me at 2.38. Should be evens imo.

 

[JusticePunting]

One for a couple of days time. 

Ebden to beat Simon @ 1.86 (Boosted) with William Hill

Ebden leads the H2H 2-0 and won both as moderate outsider. He's been in a great form this grass season and Simon's not particularly been. On grass Ebden is operating at a high level and his attacking tennis should give him the edge over Simon this time. 

[ElPrincipito007]

Mannarino @2,07 (Marathon)

His form is good and he has an H2H of 2-0 against Medvedev. I see him as a small favourite in this one.

[MrCrossover]

Sam Querrey vs Gael Monfils (+4.5) @1.81 with marathonbet

First of all, i think this match should be more even, and i will place bet on Monfils win. This is value pick, where i feel pretty confident - Monfils definetely can win some sets or win the whole match. In addition, both are good servers, so big chances there will be tiebreaks, which will give us handicap.

Good luck!

[CzechPunter]

Giorgi not looking up to the task today unfortunately, can't even stretch it far enough for fitness to have any effect.

[Larkin22]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Giorgi not looking up to the task today unfortunately, can't even stretch it far enough for fitness to have any effect.

Shes looking good to me, tennis isn't bad either. Siniakova looks a bit wrecked.

[CzechPunter]

41 minutes ago, CSanders22 said:

Shes looking good to me, tennis isn't bad either. Siniakova looks a bit wrecked.

That situation came a bit too late though, lost the handicap by one game .

[rocky1210]

3 hours ago, MrCrossover said:

Sam Querrey vs Gael Monfils (+4.5) @1.81 with marathonbet

First of all, i think this match should be more even, and i will place bet on Monfils win. This is value pick, where i feel pretty confident - Monfils definetely can win some sets or win the whole match. In addition, both are good servers, so big chances there will be tiebreaks, which will give us handicap.

Good luck!

Excellent work again!

[CzechPunter]

Benoit Paire (+2.5 sets) to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 1.93 with Pinnacle

The Argentinian hasn't done enough to warrant this kind of favoritism imo. Yes, Paire can clown around a lot, but he's been quite focused recently and how he played against Federer a couple of weeks ago makes me think that he could do some damage here. Perhaps it won't be enough for a win, because Juan Martin is probably going to stay too solid, but 1.93 for a set? Doesn't make much sense to me.

Vitalia Diatchenko to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 4.40 with Pinnacle

Call me mad, but I have to play this at 4.40. In fact, everything above 3.70 offers value in my opinion. Not because Diatchenko beat Sharapova, but because she did so with plenty of mental resilience and because she then followed it up with another good win, showing no signs of "big win fatigue". There's absolutely no doubt that Ostapenko is the favorite here, but, knowing her antics and the form Diatchenko is in right now, I'm going to side with the underdog at these odds.

[CzechPunter]

(In-play) Denis Novak to win the 3rd set against Milos Raonic at 3.40 with Bet365

Willing to give this a go on value terms. I'd say this is a 2.75ish shot given how the match has gone until now. There's obviously the risk of Novak getting nervous during the night, but the odds more than compensate for that factor.

[CzechPunter]

A bad end to the week before the day off, but still - a profit made is a profit made. Let's see what the second week brings, good luck everyone .

[CzechPunter]

Well, it seems that the next round is exceptionally tough. I'm really hoping for Vekic and Bencic to win + Ostapenko to lose for the pre-season punts, but I don't exactly fancy their chances. I'm going to run through all the matches tomorrow again, but, for now, I do want to take this one.

Kiki Bertens (+4) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Pliskova shouldn't really be here anymore, but Buzarnescu choked on the big stage and lost the thread against her despite being the better player for nearly two entire sets. Such things happen and they can give the winners of such matches nice boosts, but Pliskova's movement on grass is virtually non-existent, so I find it hard to believe that she's going to just pummel Bertens here. The world's number twenty showed plenty of fight against Williams and has reliable shots that can win a lot of points against Pliskova. The Czech did crush her in Stuttgart earlier this year and that is a slight worry, but it should be remembered that Pliskova played the Fed Cup in the same venue just before the match and had quite a few situational factors on her side back then. Now she's struggling - and Bertens should be able to take advantage of that.

[owenclass]

On 07/07/2018 at 9:21 PM, CzechPunter said:

Well, it seems that the next round is exceptionally tough. I'm really hoping for Vekic and Bencic to win + Ostapenko to lose for the pre-season punts, but I don't exactly fancy their chances. I'm going to run through all the matches tomorrow again, but, for now, I do want to take this one.

Kiki Bertens (+4) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Pliskova shouldn't really be here anymore, but Buzarnescu choked on the big stage and lost the thread against her despite being the better player for nearly two entire sets. Such things happen and they can give the winners of such matches nice boosts, but Pliskova's movement on grass is virtually non-existent, so I find it hard to believe that she's going to just pummel Bertens here. The world's number twenty showed plenty of fight against Williams and has reliable shots that can win a lot of points against Pliskova. The Czech did crush her in Stuttgart earlier this year and that is a slight worry, but it should be remembered that Pliskova played the Fed Cup in the same venue just before the match and had quite a few situational factors on her side back then. Now she's struggling - and Bertens should be able to take advantage of that.

I think that is a good bet as Bertens can actually play on grass where as her opponent always seems to struggle against good players on this surface

 

What do you think about 

Su Wei Hsieh beating Dominika Cibulkova 11/8 paddy power as she beat Halep in the last round. Alright her opponent can play on this surface but Su Wei is playing well

 

I also like Donna Vekic to beat Julia Georges 11/10 paddy power

She has always played well on grass and i just feel that this year she is showing her potential after beating Stephens in the first round, which must have given her so much confidence 

 

Su WeI Hsieh vs Dominika Cibulkova 

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

 

Julia Goerges vs Donna Vekic

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

 

Karolina Pliskova vs Kiki Bertens 

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

 

Bertens and Vekic, both to win 4/1 paddy power

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by owenclass

[liquidglass]

3 minutes ago, owenclass said:

I think that is a good bet as Bertens can actually play on grass where as her opponent always seems to struggle against good players on this surface

What do you think about 

Su Wei Hsieh beating Dominka Cibulkova 11/8 paddy power as she beat Halep in the last round. Alright her opponent can play on this surface but Su Wei is playing well

Su Wei certainly is playing well and likes this surface a lot. That is about where it ends for Hsieh who will need to raise her level many notches to cope with the very feisty Cibulkova. Dominica who really is like a stubborn terrier will not go away till she rips Hsieh dress to shreads. Playing the way she has been playing with that level of aggression her opponent should cave in at the end. It would not be easy though, but job will be done in the end!!

[South_African_Punter]

Anyone have views on the Gael Monfils vs Kevin Anderson game? Monfils is the underdog but has a superb H2H against Anderson, but Anderson is looking good as well.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

Anyone have views on the Gael Monfils vs Kevin Anderson game? Monfils is the underdog but has a superb H2H against Anderson, but Anderson is looking good as well.

Well well well, I guess that is why this is called manic monday. It certainly is confusing too. I have a system put in place to guide me over market moves especially in overnight situations like these and it is 80% accurate most times. With Monfils and Ostapenko both taking overnight two step walks in the market, it is almost guaranteed for one of them to lose. Anderson is due a win on a surface like this especially with a tailor-made game to go with it and Sasnovic looks the kind of decoy to surprisingly take money away from punters. hahaha!. my verdict? Anderson wins!!! Ostapenko loses!! Crazy innit??

Edited July 9, 2018 by liquidglass

[four-leaf]

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat John Isner at 2.60 with Unibet

Time for Big John to go away I suspect. He's up against the very well playing 19 year old greek talent Stefanos who will not go away easily here. My feeling says Stefanos wins this just like Dudi Sela did against Big John last season. And as as last season Big John goes to Newport to defend his title if he doesn't go to far in SW19. Ruben Bemelmans already pushed Big John to the brink and Stefanos can take it one step further that is defeating the american.

[four-leaf]

Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Belinda Bencic at 2.04 with Unibet

Belinda will stand no chance in this match. Angelique plays awsome right now, she can outplay anyone she is up against. Her level of play last match when she hit Naomi Osaka off the court was brilliant. Avoided to be broken completely and broke Naomi just as easy as she was walking the doggie. Angelique didn't face any breakpoints and the japanese was taken apart mentally and for Belinda to avoid that from happening she will have to raise her gameplay significantly. Belinda was broken 4 times when beating Carla Suárez Navarro partly because Carla had a party on Belindas second serves and Angelique will party on Belindas second serves even more. Only one outcome is possible for a match and the most likely outcome in this match is straight sets win for Angelique.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Anyone have views on the Gael Monfils vs Kevin Anderson game? Monfils is the underdog but has a superb H2H against Anderson, but Anderson is looking good as well.

I would avoid that match if I was you. Put your eyes on something that is not like flipping a coin. I would say England beating Croatia would be better or Angelique Kerber to beat Belinda Bencic in straight sets.

[CzechPunter]

No help for the pre-season punts, but Bertens delivered, that's good enough.

[Larkin22]

Camila Giorgi is my pick, really enjoy watching her play

[CzechPunter]

Kiki Bertens to beat Julia Goerges at 2.00 with Unibet

Not much depth to this particular pick, but I'd have Bertens as the slight favourite here, not Goerges. Superior H2H and, more importantly, superior mental resilience. Of course Goerges can win this if she's spot on, but she's beaten only one strong player in this event, so not sure that she has it in her.

[liquidglass]

6 hours ago, losingpunter said:

such a bad loss. a quality player being beaten at round of 16. I did not see this coming to be honest. bencic could have forced the 3rd set but choked, same goes with Alison van uyvtanck. Ostapenko another comedy player who came from behind to beat sasnovich and makarova lost as well. Pliskova as well. so who is the favorite now?

 

With blind eyes this is kerber's Wimbledon now unless she chokes up. 

Are you just taking a swing in the dark and hoping the higher seeded player wins? Common, as the field finally gets narrowed down and brings everyone under the microscope, it is clear that there are now more realistic and hopeful prospects than kerber. I can safely call Serena's bluff and rule her out even as she deceptively improves. The main protagonists for the title are now beginning to emerge in the form of Cibulkova, Kasatkina and Kiki the Beast Bertens. I have faith in Giorgi really pushing Serena tomorrow with her big game and quick swing action. I just fear that Serena might slowly grunt her away as the pay peg looms. Whatever happens with the Serena match, the draw has made sure that she will require a double password authentication to reach the next round. I feel fairly confident that Bertens should finally restrain Serena. As for Kerber, she is still flattering to deceive. Either Kasatkina or Cibulkova should bring her down. The former now beginning to accelerate into superlative form. Whatever happens, we will be welcoming a brand new member to the Grand Slam club come Saturday!!

Edited July 9, 2018 by liquidglass

[owenclass]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Kiki Bertens to beat Julia Goerges at 2.00 with Unibet

Not much depth to this particular pick, but I'd have Bertens as the slight favourite here, not Goerges. Superior H2H and, more importantly, superior mental resilience. Of course Goerges can win this if she's spot on, but she's beaten only one strong player in this event, so not sure that she has it in her.

I like the look of Kiki Bertens and has had impressive wins. And I agree on her opponent that we dont the think she is good enough to reach a Grand Slam semi final

Also i the look of Dominika Cibulkova to beat Jelena Ostapenko as she is playing so well. And is also a superior player on grass compared to her opponent whose best surface is clay 

And does anyone here think Daria Kasatkina can beat Angelique Kerber as she has got a good head to head record against her and is capable of playing her best on grass 

 

Dominika Cibulkova vs Jelena Ostapenko

Cibulkova to win 11/10 paddy power 

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power 

 

Daria Kasatkina vs Angelique Kerber

Kasatkina to win 7/4 paddy power

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power

 

Kiki Bertens vs Julia Goerges 

Bertens to win 10/11 paddy power 

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power 

 

 

Dominika Cibulkova, Daria Kasatkina and Kiki Bertens all to win 10/1 paddy power

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by owenclass

[Johnny1]

When was the last time we seen Cibulkova play this well? Too long. She has got that spark back it seems. She seems to be in the zone. After she beat Konta i knew it was the anger of being pushed out of the seeding. But she has kept it going. She has played way above anything iv'e seen of her recently. Is she back to what we all know she capable of ? Still a lot of unanswered questions. But one things for sure. She is fired up, and playing like her old self.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

Kerber, Ostapenko and Goerges all to win @5 with Betway.

Goerges has defeated a worth while player in Vekic. I watched kiki once last week against Mihaela and she struggles if dragged to third sets. So key for Goerges is to drag the match to 3rd set and then we are set. Ostapenko the way she rebounded yesterday makes her a favorite as well and Kerber playing a 19 yr old kasatkina will be a tough one for her. She should get through

 

Kiki will win and Dasha Kasatkina is 21 years old.

[JusticePunting]

I think Kasatkina has a really golden opportunity to beat Kerber. She pushed her to a third set tie-break at Eastbourne and has only improved in form, confidence and experience on grass since then. Her victory against Van Uytvanck was particularly impressive as she was in a rich vein of form, dispatching several tricky players ahead of the match with Kasatkina including Muguruza, Hercog and Kontaveit. I just think 2.88 with Boylesport, SpreadEx etc. is too long for this match. Kerber also has a good shot of winning but I wouldn't give Kerber much more than 55% chance. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by JusticePunting