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Mikhail Kukushkin (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 2.74 with Pinnacle

M.Ebden/S.Robert - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Adding these two for Thursday, quite like the odds. Kukushkin is definitely a threat to Nadal on grass with his good form and big hitting game + he's troubled plenty of big names in the past. Sela wasn't a test, Kukushkin should be. Meanwhile, I don't fancy Ebden/Robert to be over all that quickly. Ebden is likely to be a bit tired mentally after crushing Goffin and I think that it's going to be quite tough to be fully focused against a name like Robert. The Frenchman has a decent enough game, so I'd have the overs at 1.72 at most.

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  • Damir Dzumhur @ 1.53 with William Hill (vs. Gulbis)
    3-0 Damir Dzumhur @ 3.36 with Marathon 

    Dzumhur beats Marterer in straights and off the back of a victory at Antalya. Gulbis struggled through against Clarke (who admittedly played well) however I believe there is a huge gulf in quality between the two players. Gulbis is still erratic at points and posted 43 unforced errors in his opener (vs. 53 winners) whereas Dzumhur had over double winners to unforced errors. I expect Damir to be creeping up to top 20/edge of top 10 in the near future. 

     

    A win with Dzumhur today, but Copil couldn't pull it off. I still hold that the match was close to a 50:50. Haase just stronger at the crucial times. Copil had multiple break points which he didn't take and got broken at really inopportune times (like closing in on 2nd set). 

Edited by JusticePunting
Update on matches today

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4 hours ago, losingpunter said:

Istomin is a punk. had 2 set points in first set and was 40-15 up. tried to play some extravagant shots and show his class. I am glad such players don't go ahead. He cost me as well

No need to publicly berate any player who lets us down. If I did that, they'd be pages and pages of content for people to read through ;)

Kyrgios is ridiculously tough on grass. He's an ace and TB machine. He's no pushover in rallies either. You get the feeling that he bides his time until the TB when he strikes. I also backed Istomin but Istomin was pretty powerless to be honest in those key moments. Kyrgios is operating at top 5 on grass in my opinion, or at worst top 10. He doesn't look like he cares at all, but I think that's deceptive and a bit of a trap!

Edited by JusticePunting

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1 hour ago, JusticePunting said:

No need to publicly berate any player who lets us down. If I did that, they'd be pages and pages of content for people to read through ;)

Kyrgios is ridiculously tough on grass. He's an ace and TB machine. He's no pushover in rallies either. You get the feeling that he bides his time until the TB when he strikes. I also backed Istomin but Istomin was pretty powerless to be honest in those key moments. Kyrgios is operating at top 5 on grass in my opinion, or at worst top 10. He doesn't look like he cares at all, but I think that's deceptive and a bit of a trap!

Very well said. I would have to add importantly, that as far as punters, most punters were concerned Istomin did his job perfectly with helping to take the total games well over. I dont think there can be any valid complaints against him.

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1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

kyrgrios is a better player on grass?? what else does he have in his armory other than aces and how much more can he play at this high level just by hitting aces. how many aces does nadal hit?? and how abt novak??

He has played against mediocre players in past 1 month. His real test will come when he plays nadal or federer

 

I believe most people on here are tennis afficionados and at least know the game of tennis well enough to seperate black from white at the very least. Make no mistake, Kyrgios is definately one of the top 5 players in the world on grass despite his gimmicks. He has good follow-up ground strokes to his serve in addition to the intimidating serve. Your question "What else does he have in his armory other than aces" in reference to his grass play, is similar to me telling you that a man is rich and you asking what more does he have in his pocket other than money.

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Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Gilles Muller @2.80 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

I doubt there is any big favorite in that kind of matchup. Kohli looked better vs Donskoy than recently in Halle and Stuttgart BUT Donskoy was awful most of the time. No kind of match i would take too seriously into account for the following rounds. Muller had some problems with Mmoh but we all know Muller is having some issues in the early rounds and Mmoh was playing his heart out. Nevertheless his serve was working well. I do not trust Kohli here, especially in a Best of Five match. Have to take Muller at those odds without a doubt.

Sam Querrey vs Sergiy Stakhovsky over 37 games @1.90 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Expect a tougher match for Querrey here than vs out of form Thompson. Stakhovsky can be a beast on grass, beat Federer a couple of years ago in Wimbledon and he looked great so far on grass in 2018. I think if this goes to four sets it will be a W and the odds for over 3.5 sets are ~1.75.

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A. Qureshi/J. Rojer vs D. Ferrer/M. Lopez @3.34 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Ferrer only played one doubles match in 2018 but he won vs Kubot/Melo partnering Bautista Agut so we can see he is experienced enough to play on a high level. I wasn't impressed by Qureshi/Rojer recently.

A. Bolt/L. Hewitt vs R. Klaasen/M. Venus @2.95 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

They met a couple of weeks ago in s'Hertogenbosch and Klaasen/Venus won 75 75 but it was a weak level match and i am wasn't impressed by both teams. I think it's far more equal than bookies suggest. We should not forget that Wimbledon doubles will be played best of five sets so winning three sets is a lot.

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Konta vs Cibulkova @3.06 with MarathonBet + Ostapenko vs Flipkens @2.10 with MarathonBet

 

Bet Type - DOUBLE @6.426

 

I think Cibulkova isnt such a big underdog like bookies think. I take that value.

About Ostapenko - nothing to say. Everybody knows its in her head - one day she will be the best in city, next day she will lose in pity.

 

Anyway - risk is high, but i like my chances.

Good Luck fellas, and hope Wimbledon is good for us!

 

EDIT - So i took Cibulkova and Ostapenko

Edited by MrCrossover

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And my boy Gulbis!

 

Dzumhur vs Gulbis. Gulbis to win @3.26 with MarathonBet#

 

Gulbis is playing his best tennis now in long time. He also said in recent interviews - this time he wants to win so bad. One of the last chances to prove, he still got the game. And Dzumhur offensive game leaves chances to my boy.

Im bias, but i like my chances.:)

 

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CzechPunter, congrats for your double on Siniakova and Buzarnescu bets.  I saw that Siniakova was physically stretched in her very close win and she was also not mentally prepared to go any further in this slam.  Do you think Giorgi C. can take her down in 2 sets?

Thanks in advance and hope you reply soon.

:cigar

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Hi there, I certainly can't complain. Buzarnescu/Siniakova/Robert all delivering, Bencic winning to keep the pre-season bet very much alive. Kukushkin lost, but alright, can't win them all. Just hoping the streak is going to continue.

Camila Giorgi (-2.5) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.80 with Bet365

I might be a fan of Siniakova, but @Robinnho is right, she's being stretched left and right, too many long matches and too little rest. I prefer the games handicap personally, because I can see Siniakova winning the first and then losing physically, but the key is to oppose Siniakova in one way or another imo. Giorgi is better than Jabeur.

Mihaela Buzarnescu (+3.5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.89 with Unibet

Any explanations needed? I don't think so.

Radu Albot (+2.5 sets) to beat John Isner at 1.78 with Pinnacle

Albot appears to have a certain knack against big serving guys, he's taken sets off the likes of Isner/Querrey/etc. before and the additional day of rest can only help him. Isner was shaky enough against Bemelmans for me to like this bet.

M.Raonic/D.Novak - Over 3.5 sets at 2.38 with Paddy Power

Novak appears to be on fire at the moment, two of the sets he played against Pouille were just unreal and the run might well continue on momentum alone. I don't think that he's going to beat Raonic, but the Canadian couldn't make much of an impact against Millman, so the overs look juicy to me at 2.38. Should be evens imo.

 

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One for a couple of days time. 

Ebden to beat Simon @ 1.86 (Boosted) with William Hill

Ebden leads the H2H 2-0 and won both as moderate outsider. He's been in a great form this grass season and Simon's not particularly been. On grass Ebden is operating at a high level and his attacking tennis should give him the edge over Simon this time. 

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Sam Querrey vs Gael Monfils (+4.5) @1.81 with marathonbet

First of all, i think this match should be more even, and i will place bet on Monfils win. This is value pick, where i feel pretty confident - Monfils definetely can win some sets or win the whole match. In addition, both are good servers, so big chances there will be tiebreaks, which will give us handicap.

Good luck!

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Giorgi not looking up to the task today unfortunately, can't even stretch it far enough for fitness to have any effect.

Shes looking good to me, tennis isn't bad either. Siniakova looks a bit wrecked.

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3 hours ago, MrCrossover said:

Sam Querrey vs Gael Monfils (+4.5) @1.81 with marathonbet

First of all, i think this match should be more even, and i will place bet on Monfils win. This is value pick, where i feel pretty confident - Monfils definetely can win some sets or win the whole match. In addition, both are good servers, so big chances there will be tiebreaks, which will give us handicap.

Good luck!

Excellent work again!

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Benoit Paire (+2.5 sets) to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 1.93 with Pinnacle

The Argentinian hasn't done enough to warrant this kind of favoritism imo. Yes, Paire can clown around a lot, but he's been quite focused recently and how he played against Federer a couple of weeks ago makes me think that he could do some damage here. Perhaps it won't be enough for a win, because Juan Martin is probably going to stay too solid, but 1.93 for a set? Doesn't make much sense to me.

Vitalia Diatchenko to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 4.40 with Pinnacle

Call me mad, but I have to play this at 4.40. In fact, everything above 3.70 offers value in my opinion. Not because Diatchenko beat Sharapova, but because she did so with plenty of mental resilience and because she then followed it up with another good win, showing no signs of "big win fatigue". There's absolutely no doubt that Ostapenko is the favorite here, but, knowing her antics and the form Diatchenko is in right now, I'm going to side with the underdog at these odds.

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(In-play) Denis Novak to win the 3rd set against Milos Raonic at 3.40 with Bet365

Willing to give this a go on value terms. I'd say this is a 2.75ish shot given how the match has gone until now. There's obviously the risk of Novak getting nervous during the night, but the odds more than compensate for that factor.

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Well, it seems that the next round is exceptionally tough. I'm really hoping for Vekic and Bencic to win + Ostapenko to lose for the pre-season punts, but I don't exactly fancy their chances. I'm going to run through all the matches tomorrow again, but, for now, I do want to take this one.

Kiki Bertens (+4) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Pliskova shouldn't really be here anymore, but Buzarnescu choked on the big stage and lost the thread against her despite being the better player for nearly two entire sets. Such things happen and they can give the winners of such matches nice boosts, but Pliskova's movement on grass is virtually non-existent, so I find it hard to believe that she's going to just pummel Bertens here. The world's number twenty showed plenty of fight against Williams and has reliable shots that can win a lot of points against Pliskova. The Czech did crush her in Stuttgart earlier this year and that is a slight worry, but it should be remembered that Pliskova played the Fed Cup in the same venue just before the match and had quite a few situational factors on her side back then. Now she's struggling - and Bertens should be able to take advantage of that.

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