Wimbledon 2018

[CzechPunter]

Happy with Pouille and Vekic, unhappy with Martic, let's see about Millman and Lorenzi. Not sure about adding more tips for tomorrow, I wouldn't really mind having a somewhat quiet Wimbledon this year for some reason.

Edit: The umpire has just robbed Millman of the first set, oh man. I have to say, though, fair play to Djere if he wins today after spending seven days in a row on clay last week.

[CzechPunter]

Lorenzi + Millman deliver .

[four-leaf]

Bemelmans has already delivered even though the match isn't finished but he can't lose by 4 games now since he avoided a bagel in 5th set which was required..

[opole]

19 hours ago, opole said:

Daniil Medvedev vs Borna Coric @3.66 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Sam Querrey vs Jordan Thompson over 35.5 games @2.000 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Evgeny Donskoy +2.5 sets 1.787 stake: 5/10

Ivo Karlovic vs Mikhail Youzhny 2.060 stake: 4/10

 

 

 

Medvedev 76 62 62 WON

27 games LOSS

Donskoy 26 46 57 LOSS 

Karlovic 46 75 76 63 WON

So we have 2x win 2x loss here but Donskoy should really have won the third set, he was 4-1 up there and looked really good but then collapsed like the mental midget he is. Disgusting. Still a solid plus thanks to Medvedev.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, opole said:

Medvedev 76 62 62 WON

27 games LOSS

Donskoy 26 46 57 LOSS 

Karlovic 46 75 76 63 WON

So we have 2x win 2x loss here but Donskoy should really have won the third set, he was 4-1 up there and looked really good but then collapsed like the mental midget he is. Disgusting. Still a solid plus thanks to Medvedev.

Do you have any plans for tomorrow?

[opole]

Just now, four-leaf said:

Do you have any plans for tomorrow?

Yeah, i was about to post my picks for tomorrow, will take some minutes because i have taken a lot so far. Probably too much for a first round GS but my feeling is solid for all of my picks.

[MABS]

Just looking, have to agree that many look quite winnable, but the point is in staying away from the ones that do not end up as we see them... for now, I just think that Istomin should take a set of rising superstar, and Jack Sock might come out on top of a big server match up vs. Berrettini, although Italian had good season...

I will think it over before playing, as the strongest reason for that play would be gut feeling that he is due a good result...  That is not really persuasive reasoning so I will leave it till tomorrow...

 

 

[opole]

Ernests Gulbis vs Jay Clarke +2.5 sets @1.813 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

I don't rate Clarke that high tbh, he looks like a decent prospect but he lacks a real weapon in his game to trouble better opponents. Still this is a pick against Gulbis who is simply one of the biggest error machines in mens tennis. I can't trust him 1% here. He should win this, no question but i doubt he is able to win a Best of Five match without dropping his level in one or two sets from time to time.

Matthew Ebden vs David Goffin @2.870 Pinnacle stake: 5/10

I really rate Ebden high on grass, he is a talented player but struggled a lot with injuries in the past but he is definitely in superb shape in 2018, i think he is playing the best tennis for his career right now. He looked great in Halle where i watched him live from 15metres distance, he was really pumped and confident, going for his shots and painting the lines. Goffin on the other side was never a real contender on grass although he improved a bit it's not his favorite surface for sure because he lacks a real game plan on grass as he is playing like it's clay or hardcourt.

Julien Benneteau vs Marton Fucsovics first set @1.84 188bet stake: 3/10

Benneteau and grass always a pleasure to watch. Fucsovics on the other side had a real tough shock moment in Halle vs Kohlschreiber where he slipped and dropped down. He had a medical timeout and his leg was taped but he had to retire. I doubt he will be in perfect condition tomorrow, Benneteau will play his heart out for sure, could be his last approach in Wimbledon. I take the first set here, money line at a 1 set bookmaker also a good option.

Diego Schwartzman vs Mirza Basic @2.61 Pinnacle stake: 3/10

Schwartzman NEVER won a match on grass and i can't see the reason why he is such a massive favorite vs a solid grass court player like Basic. Basic improved a lot last year and also this year, he is a Top 80 player now and played some really decent stuff recently. Schwartzman lost to Lacko in Eastbourne, Lacko is a poor mans Basic imo but a bit more consistent. If Basic reduces the errors he should win this. 

James Duckworth vs Alexander Zverev @15.91 Pinnacle stake: 1/10

Call me crazy but i think Duckworth will be a hell of an opponent for a first round. Duckworth is such a talented player but he struggled with injuries the last two or three years so he wasn't able to play consistent on a high level. It's a shame because i rate him as a solid Top 50 player. He looked great vs Cilic in Paris although he had no big match practice so i see no reason why he should not have a decent shot vs a very shaky Zverev who looked poor in Halle and also has some issues at bigger tournaments, his grand slam record is a mess for a Top 3 player.

Nick Kyrgios vs Denis Istomin @6.34 Pinnacle stake: 5/10

No idea what the clue is but the odds looking absolutely unreal. Istomin is a really dangerous player on grass everyone knows that, he lacks consistency but if he has a decent day he can beat them all. Kyrgios only played two tournaments recently, he looked absolutely solid there but still he played a lot of close matches there with a lot of tiebreaks and i expect the same thing here and maybe Istomin will have the upper hand here. On the other side we all have no idea if Kyrgios body is ready for four or five sets. I was tempted by Istomin here from the first second.

Dudi Sela vs Rafael Nadal +2.5 sets @3.56 Pinnacle stake: 4/10 / @20.50 Pinnacle stake: 1/10

Sela is a capable grass court player. I have only two problems here: 1. he is in poor shape and 2. he lacks a good serve. BUT i think he will be a tougher task than most think. Nadal looked poor in Hurlingham, i really think he is not at 100% right now, he put a lot into the claycourt season and grass was always problematic in the last years. I think Nadal will lose early here like he did last year. 

[CzechPunter]

Interesting, I think Nadal is going to lose fairly early as well, but Sela is probably not the man unfortunately. Wouldn't be shocked by him winning a set though. Just a note on Benneteau - it really should be his last Wimbledon, as he's scheduled to retire this season (but he can obviously change his mind).

[four-leaf]

Sofia Kenin to beat Maria Sakkari at 2.20 with Paddypower

Sofia at 19 years old stands at her career high ranking 76 and she seems to be reasonably good at playing on grass. Had a good run on the grass of Mallorca beating Caro Garcia in 2 before going out in the semi to eventual champion Tatjana Maria in 3. She obviously plays very well on grass so she should be taken serious here as that run was a mini breakthrough for her. She's been playing good all season long on the surfaces she is best on, beating Daria Kasatkina in Miami, taking a set off Caro Wozniacki in Auckland quarters. She's been taught some lessons on clay but done good on faster surfaces so I think she's very mutch in for the win here. Maria lost her last two matches both on grass and one loss to Svetlana Kuznetsova who's trying to find her game after injury and that didn't impress so Maria certainly hasn't impressed on grass. With this reasoning Sofia to win is an easy choice so I'll pick her to win.

[four-leaf]

Going for this fourfold at Paddypower tomorrow:

Matt Ebden 2.75

Mirza Basic 2.38

Sofia Kenin 2.10 price went down from 2.20

Mikhail Kukushkin 1.62

Edit: better price on bet365 with Sofia Kenin at 2.20 and Mirza Basic at 2.50

Edited July 2, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Katie Boulter (-1.5 sets) to beat Veronica Cepede Royg at 2.38 with Paddypower

Easy pick here. Katie on a surface she's been great on this summer v this paraguayan player who is best on clay and with no real form coming into this having lost her last 2 grass matches in straight sets. It doesn't hurt either that Katie met Veronica in 2014 on grass in Nottingham and won 6-3 6-2.

 

[JusticePunting]

Some good bets here. Really like Benneteau to win first set, Ebden, Kenin and Boulter (-1.5 sets) and had/have taken all of them. 

I also like:

Marius Copil @ 2.76 with Marathon (vs. Haase)

I think Copil is playing at a similar level to Haase - see his 3 setter against Dzumhur who won Antalya. Haase has the serve but he's not a natural on grass. His W/L record is 22-35 (38%) while Copil's is 29-19 (60%). I think this is a 50:50 match so willing to back Copil here! Also don't forget that Copil beat Haase on indoor hard (only H2H) earlier this year so he's more than capable of beating Haase.  It is very windy at SW19 (at least it was yesterday) so not sure how that will impact on this or any of the matches. It should disrupt servers a bit which will nullify the serve of both a bit, and I think Haase's ace count has saved him throughout grass season at multiple points. 

 

I did also get Chardy @ 1.76, odds have shortened to 1.68. Think he should be pretty big favourite there. He's on a really good run and has only lost to Gasquet and Djokovic this grass season. Shapovalov has been in pretty terrible form and I really doubt his ability to get things done here. 

 

Damir Dzumhur (-1.5 sets) @ 2.47 (vs. Marterer)

Mannarino was fine against the in-form Garin so I don't think Dzumhur will struggle here because of the travel. I think Dzumhur is playing at a very high level and beats Marterer in four or less sets. 

 

[JusticePunting]

Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.65 with Marathon (vs. Muller)

Muller in terrible form. He finally won a match against Mmoh! Remember Mmoh lost in straight sets against John-Patrick Smith in qualifying so while Mmoh is talented I don't hold that up as a shining example of a win. 

Kohlschreiber hasn't looked at his best but is generally the better player and leads the H2H 3-0. I see a decent amount of value in backing Kohli here. Muller is not the force he once was on grass and Kohli is fairly natural on grass. He was very off colour against Ebden in Halle but think he'll have had chance to prepare for Wimbledon and take this match. 

 

Also - the Dzumhur one above was with Marathon. 

[WinningTipster]

3 picks for the Wimbledon:

KOHLSCHREIBER-MULLER OVER 40 GAMES  @ 1.78 pinnacle
Two players with good game for grass, similar level. Probably 4-5 long sets

KVITOVA-6 GAMES OVER SASNOVICH  @ 1.62 pinnacle
Expect an easy win for one of the favorites to win the tournament.

NADAL-SELA 3:0 SETS  @ 1.35 betfair (1.31 pinnacle)
Expect an easy win for one of the favorites to win the tournament.
 

[four-leaf]

Alison Riske (-5.5) to beat Mariana Duque Mariño at 2.00 with bet365

I think this might be it for the colombian. Alison is just too good on grass. Bad reasoning for this I know but it's Alisons best surface and she just recently won the ITF title in Surbiton. She could easily cover this handicap in this match.

[CzechPunter]

Katerina Siniakova to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.66 with Bet365

Mihaela Buzarnescu (-4.5) to beat Katie Swan at 1.88 with Pinnacle

Taking these two for tomorrow, Siniakova has an excellent record against Jabeur and is still the better player of the two, while Buzarnescu should just dominate against Swan unless the home crowd gets under her skin. I saw her match against Kvitova in Prague and she was largely able to resist the pressure even against a much better opponent than Swan, so I fancy her to do it.

[CzechPunter]

Thiem bailing out after seeing the draw? What a character!

[four-leaf]

Matt Ebden, Sofia Kenin, Jay Clarke, Julien Benneteau and Ali Riske all delivered. Of course something was gonna spoil the party as Mirza Basic completely failed and Katie Boulter couldn't serve out the match at 5-4 in second set. 

End of todays tennis...

[opole]

21 hours ago, opole said:

Ernests Gulbis vs Jay Clarke +2.5 sets @1.813 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Matthew Ebden vs David Goffin @2.870 Pinnacle stake: 5/10

Julien Benneteau vs Marton Fucsovics first set @1.84 188bet stake: 3/10

Diego Schwartzman vs Mirza Basic @2.61 Pinnacle stake: 3/10

James Duckworth vs Alexander Zverev @15.91 Pinnacle stake: 1/10

Nick Kyrgios vs Denis Istomin @6.34 Pinnacle stake: 5/10

Dudi Sela vs Rafael Nadal +2.5 sets @3.56 Pinnacle stake: 4/10 / @20.50 Pinnacle stake: 1/10

Clarke 64 36 67 63 46 WON

Ebden 64 63 64 WON

Benneteau 75 WON

Basic 36 26 16 LOST

Duckworth 57 26 06 LOST

Istomin 67 67 76 36 LOST

Sela 36 36 26 LOST

 

Sela, Basic and Duckworth without a chance. Istomin lost the tight match i expected, even had some set points in one of those. Very, very bad luck there but Kyrgios was too good in the fourth set. Ebden was really good, same for Clarke and Benneteau had some minor problems to serve it out but overall looked pretty decent.

Edited July 3, 2018 by opole

[CzechPunter]

Mikhail Kukushkin (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 2.74 with Pinnacle

M.Ebden/S.Robert - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Adding these two for Thursday, quite like the odds. Kukushkin is definitely a threat to Nadal on grass with his good form and big hitting game + he's troubled plenty of big names in the past. Sela wasn't a test, Kukushkin should be. Meanwhile, I don't fancy Ebden/Robert to be over all that quickly. Ebden is likely to be a bit tired mentally after crushing Goffin and I think that it's going to be quite tough to be fully focused against a name like Robert. The Frenchman has a decent enough game, so I'd have the overs at 1.72 at most.

[JusticePunting]

• Damir Dzumhur @ 1.53 with William Hill (vs. Gulbis)
  3-0 Damir Dzumhur @ 3.36 with Marathon 

  Dzumhur beats Marterer in straights and off the back of a victory at Antalya. Gulbis struggled through against Clarke (who admittedly played well) however I believe there is a huge gulf in quality between the two players. Gulbis is still erratic at points and posted 43 unforced errors in his opener (vs. 53 winners) whereas Dzumhur had over double winners to unforced errors. I expect Damir to be creeping up to top 20/edge of top 10 in the near future. 

   

  A win with Dzumhur today, but Copil couldn't pull it off. I still hold that the match was close to a 50:50. Haase just stronger at the crucial times. Copil had multiple break points which he didn't take and got broken at really inopportune times (like closing in on 2nd set). 

Edited July 3, 2018 by JusticePunting
Update on matches today

[JusticePunting]

4 hours ago, losingpunter said:

Istomin is a punk. had 2 set points in first set and was 40-15 up. tried to play some extravagant shots and show his class. I am glad such players don't go ahead. He cost me as well

No need to publicly berate any player who lets us down. If I did that, they'd be pages and pages of content for people to read through

Kyrgios is ridiculously tough on grass. He's an ace and TB machine. He's no pushover in rallies either. You get the feeling that he bides his time until the TB when he strikes. I also backed Istomin but Istomin was pretty powerless to be honest in those key moments. Kyrgios is operating at top 5 on grass in my opinion, or at worst top 10. He doesn't look like he cares at all, but I think that's deceptive and a bit of a trap!

Edited July 4, 2018 by JusticePunting

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, JusticePunting said:

No need to publicly berate any player who lets us down. If I did that, they'd be pages and pages of content for people to read through

Kyrgios is ridiculously tough on grass. He's an ace and TB machine. He's no pushover in rallies either. You get the feeling that he bides his time until the TB when he strikes. I also backed Istomin but Istomin was pretty powerless to be honest in those key moments. Kyrgios is operating at top 5 on grass in my opinion, or at worst top 10. He doesn't look like he cares at all, but I think that's deceptive and a bit of a trap!

Very well said. I would have to add importantly, that as far as punters, most punters were concerned Istomin did his job perfectly with helping to take the total games well over. I dont think there can be any valid complaints against him.

[opole]

He played vs Federer in Stuttgart and was 3-1 up in the final tiebreaker but lost it in the end.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

kyrgrios is a better player on grass?? what else does he have in his armory other than aces and how much more can he play at this high level just by hitting aces. how many aces does nadal hit?? and how abt novak??

He has played against mediocre players in past 1 month. His real test will come when he plays nadal or federer

 

I believe most people on here are tennis afficionados and at least know the game of tennis well enough to seperate black from white at the very least. Make no mistake, Kyrgios is definately one of the top 5 players in the world on grass despite his gimmicks. He has good follow-up ground strokes to his serve in addition to the intimidating serve. Your question "What else does he have in his armory other than aces" in reference to his grass play, is similar to me telling you that a man is rich and you asking what more does he have in his pocket other than money.

[opole]

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Gilles Muller @2.80 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

I doubt there is any big favorite in that kind of matchup. Kohli looked better vs Donskoy than recently in Halle and Stuttgart BUT Donskoy was awful most of the time. No kind of match i would take too seriously into account for the following rounds. Muller had some problems with Mmoh but we all know Muller is having some issues in the early rounds and Mmoh was playing his heart out. Nevertheless his serve was working well. I do not trust Kohli here, especially in a Best of Five match. Have to take Muller at those odds without a doubt.

Sam Querrey vs Sergiy Stakhovsky over 37 games @1.90 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Expect a tougher match for Querrey here than vs out of form Thompson. Stakhovsky can be a beast on grass, beat Federer a couple of years ago in Wimbledon and he looked great so far on grass in 2018. I think if this goes to four sets it will be a W and the odds for over 3.5 sets are ~1.75.

[opole]

A. Qureshi/J. Rojer vs D. Ferrer/M. Lopez @3.34 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Ferrer only played one doubles match in 2018 but he won vs Kubot/Melo partnering Bautista Agut so we can see he is experienced enough to play on a high level. I wasn't impressed by Qureshi/Rojer recently.

A. Bolt/L. Hewitt vs R. Klaasen/M. Venus @2.95 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

They met a couple of weeks ago in s'Hertogenbosch and Klaasen/Venus won 75 75 but it was a weak level match and i am wasn't impressed by both teams. I think it's far more equal than bookies suggest. We should not forget that Wimbledon doubles will be played best of five sets so winning three sets is a lot.

[CzechPunter]

You've been warned several times before @losingpunter. Stop with these outbursts already.

[owenclass]

Angelique Kerber to win second quarter 11/4 paddy power

 

Kyle Edmund vs Bradley Klahn

Over 34.5 games 10/11 paddy power

I like the look of Edmund in this match as he is playing. But his opponent is capable of winning a set as Edmund is still not that comfortable on grass