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1pt Mihaela Buzarnescu to win the 3rd Quarter at 29.00 with Bet365

Interest stakes for obvious reasons.

E.Gulbis/J.Clarke - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Gulbis is the better player, there can be no doubts about that, but Clarke plays his heart out in home conditions and he's played decent tennis recently, so I think that it's very likely that we are going to see a tight battle here, either thanks to Clarke fighting hard or thanks to Gulbis fooling around.

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.66 with Pinnacle

I've already opposed Pospisil once on grass in this season and I'm happy to do so again against Kukushkin, who is just the better player of the two overall. Much better, in fact, and with a much better form book as well.

Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino to beat Ana Bogdan at 1.81 with Marathonbet

The surface should suit Bogdan slightly more, but she hasn't played for so long that I'm not really sure that LAV should be only a minor favourite here. Could be a case of Bogdan just picking up a check honestly. I like the odds regardless.

Paolo Lorenzi to beat Laslo Djere at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Speaking of picking up checks, Djere is currently still playing in a clay court Challenger in Milan, which is about the last thing you'd want to be doing a couple of days ahead of Wimbledon if success is what you want. Lorenzi is an aging force, but I'd have him around the 1.50 mark given all the situational factors. Also, he has at least a somewhat competent serve (unlike Djere).

Petra Martic to beat Ekaterina Makarova at 1.97 with Pinnacle

Makarova is stuck in a really strange spot at the moment, with no victories in sight. She's obviously capable of beating Martic, but I can't have her as the favourite given the losing streak and given that Martic has played a couple of reasonable matches on grass already. 60/40 imo.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.80 with Paddy Power

I have to admit that Diyas has dropped from my radar recently, but Gavrilova hasn't and I didn't mind her recent performances - that she didn't win too many matches can be attributed to the fact that she had to face Kvitova and Radwanska pretty much straight away. Diyas will be a solid step down.

John Millman (-1.5 sets) to beat Stefano Travaglia at 1.86 with Unibet

I don't really enjoy opposing qualifiers, but Travaglia looks to be the weakest link from that group of players and the draw hasn't been particularly kind to him either, so I'd say that he's going to find it really hard to get a result. On grass, Millman should win - and perhaps comfortably so.

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

1pt Mihaela Buzarnescu to win the 3rd Quarter at 29.00 with Bet365

Interest stakes for obvious reasons.

E.Gulbis/J.Clarke - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Gulbis is the better player, there can be no doubts about that, but Clarke plays his heart out in home conditions and he's played decent tennis recently, so I think that it's very likely that we are going to see a tight battle here, either thanks to Clarke fighting hard or thanks to Gulbis fooling around.

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.66 with Pinnacle

I've already opposed Pospisil once on grass in this season and I'm happy to do so again against Kukushkin, who is just the better player of the two overall. Much better, in fact, and with a much better form book as well.

Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino to beat Ana Bogdan at 1.81 with Marathonbet

The surface should suit Bogdan slightly more, but she hasn't played for so long that I'm not really sure that LAV should be only a minor favourite here. Could be a case of Bogdan just picking up a check honestly. I like the odds regardless.

Paolo Lorenzi to beat Laslo Djere at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Speaking of picking up checks, Djere is currently still playing in a clay court Challenger in Milan, which is about the last thing you'd want to be doing a couple of days ahead of Wimbledon if success is what you want. Lorenzi is an aging force, but I'd have him around the 1.50 mark given all the situational factors. Also, he has at least a somewhat competent serve (unlike Djere).

Petra Martic to beat Ekaterina Makarova at 1.97 with Pinnacle

Makarova is stuck in a really strange spot at the moment, with no victories in sight. She's obviously capable of beating Martic, but I can't have her as the favourite given the losing streak and given that Martic has played a couple of reasonable matches on grass already. 60/40 imo.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.80 with Paddy Power

I have to admit that Diyas has dropped from my radar recently, but Gavrilova hasn't and I didn't mind her recent performances - that she didn't win too many matches can be attributed to the fact that she had to face Kvitova and Radwanska pretty much straight away. Diyas will be a solid step down.

John Millman (-1.5 sets) to beat Stefano Travaglia at 1.86 with Unibet

I don't really enjoy opposing qualifiers, but Travaglia looks to be the weakest link from that group of players and the draw hasn't been particularly kind to him either, so I'd say that he's going to find it really hard to get a result. On grass, Millman should win - and perhaps comfortably so.

Lol!! I really do not mind you saying anything in a bid to find qualifying reasons for a pick. However I just could not let you get away with describing Travaglia as the weakest link from the group of qualifying players. He goes into that game with a more than average chance of winning for a guy whose game is well suited to the surface. His record on grass in the last 2years is very good and the odds also reflect that.

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2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Then I presume that you'll be backing him?

Not at all. I think there are better matchups to focus on especially on the first two days of a slam. I agree with you that millman is the better player, but certainly not by a street . He also faces a very determined street fighter here who breezed through qualifying. Definately a long match in prospect. Good luck if you back him large!!

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16 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

Not at all. I think there are better matchups to focus on especially on the first two days of a slam. I agree with you that millman is the better player, but certainly not by a street . He also faces a very determined street fighter here who breezed through qualifying. Definately a long match in prospect. Good luck if you back him large!!

I'm not backing him large, even stakes as always. And just for the record, I guess that he's not actually the weakest link. Bonzi is. Klahn is a close call, but we'll see, perhaps Travaglia is going to force me to regret my words.

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Good opinions exchange on Travaglia vs Millman - sure Milman is playing in a good form and has a higher chance of winning this match, but it is also true that S. Travaglia is not the weakest player coming out of qualies...

Although Liquidglass has a valid point, I do like Millman -1,5 sets, as it allows a set to worthy opponent - just regular stakes.

My opinion only, not a sure thing (none is) no disrespect meant, as a 7:6, 6:4, 3:6 and 6:4 could do it for both...

 

Happy Canada day, and GL to all :)

 

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Stefanos Tsitsipas (-2.5 sets) to beat Gregoire Barrere at 2.52 with Pinnaclesports

Ok no answer to my post yet so I post this instead of waiting for answers to come about Greg. He's bad the frenchman really bad, pure awful crap about his way of playing tennis at the very least, no now I'm being mean to Greg. He's acctually pretty decent but he's got 5 matches on grass in his senior career and 8 matches as a junior 2010. He lost in 2016 Wimbledon qualies to Albano Olivetti in 3 and now he's back and has qualified for the first time with victories over Thiago Monteiro in 3 who was in the maindraw last season beating the aussie Andrew Whittington. Attila Balazs in straights bo2 and Stefano Napolitano also in straights bo5. I'm not surprised Greg is in the maindraw since he didn't have the strongest of draws coming into the qualies. Now he's facing a highly motivated Stefanos who will likely break his serve at will sooner or later in the match. I'd be surprised if Greg manage to hold serve to more then 1 tie-break. Greg is not that good with a career high ranking at 187 in july 2016 and now 193.

Stefanos is 3-3 on grass in his career and 3-2 this season. The greek has developed his game this season to being the next best 19 year old guy on tour after Denis Shapovalov. Stefanos is right now at 35 his career high ranking having reached the quarter final of S-Hertogenbosch where he lost in 2 tie-breaks to Richard Gasquet and no shame in that. It feels safe to say that Greg will not hold serve easy enough through the match on more than one occasion and Stefanos is so secure in his serving that it should be safe to pick him to win this in 3.

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21 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Stefanos Tsitsipas (-2.5 sets) to beat Gregoire Barrere at 2.52 with Pinnaclesports

Ok no answer to my post yet so I post this instead of waiting for answers to come about Greg. He's bad the frenchman really bad, pure awful crap about his way of playing tennis at the very least, no now I'm being mean to Greg. He's acctually pretty decent but he's got 5 matches on grass in his senior career and 8 matches as a junior 2010. He lost in 2016 Wimbledon qualies to Albano Olivetti in 3 and now he's back and has qualified for the first time with victories over Thiago Monteiro in 3 who was in the maindraw last season beating the aussie Andrew Whittington. Attila Balazs in straights bo2 and Stefano Napolitano also in straights bo5. I'm not surprised Greg is in the maindraw since he didn't have the strongest of draws coming into the qualies. Now he's facing a highly motivated Stefanos who will likely break his serve at will sooner or later in the match. I'd be surprised if Greg manage to hold serve to more then 1 tie-break. Greg is not that good with a career high ranking at 187 in july 2016 and now 193.

Stefanos is 3-3 on grass in his career and 3-2 this season. The greek has developed his game this season to being the next best 19 year old guy on tour after Denis Shapovalov. Stefanos is right now at 35 his career high ranking having reached the quarter final of S-Hertogenbosch where he lost in 2 tie-breaks to Richard Gasquet and no shame in that. It feels safe to say that Greg will not hold serve easy enough through the match on more than one occasion and Stefanos is so secure in his serving that it should be safe to pick him to win this in 3.

I tend to always reset my thinking apparatus at the beginning of a slam making room for all possible eventualities and trying to think ahead as far as possible. The first rule to trying to predict a match for me is this; if it looks too easy, then it probably is not. Remember it is not always about a player's stats and ability but also about trying to predict his state of mind and trying to gain a possible insight into the matchup by means that cannot be measured, well...apart from instincts. I can safely safely say from experience that the most reliable way to weigh the outcome of a match is in the odds. Odds never lie if you really spend time following its movement. It is really one mystery that defies explanation. It is the reason why I could just look at certain odds and know that there is a lot more hidden that needs to be uncovered. Since the first time I looked at Gregoire's odds I have for some reason smelt danger, and it is not from thinking that he is a better player than Tsitsipas. I just think Tsitsipas looks suspect going into this slam especially having already had his mini run. Here is the point worthy of note. Gregoire has the feeling of being to fresh to go down 3-0. He has already played more than a handful of games inc qualifiers to prepare him for this. He also beat some useful players like Napolitano and Bolt along the way. The latter, a player that I have high regards for on grass even as much as giving him a slight chance against Edmunds. Also it is not a very wise move to be taking -2.5 sets at the begining of a slam especially when players are fresh and trying to establish a rythym. Just too chancy in my opinion. I will even be extra cautious for win only purposes. All the same, good luck to you!

Edited by liquidglass

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13 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

I tend to always reset my thinking apparatus at the beginning of a slam making room for all possible eventualities and trying to think ahead as far as possible. The first rule to trying to predict a match for me is this; if it looks too easy, then it probably is not. Remember it is not always about a player's stats and ability but also about trying to predict his state of mind and trying to gain a possible insight into the matchup by means that cannot be measured, well...apart from instincts. I can safely safely say from experience that the most reliable way to weigh the outcome of a match is in the odds. Odds never lie if you really spend time following its movement. It is really one mystery that defies explanation. It is the reason why I could just look at certain odds and know that there is a lot more hidden that needs to be uncovered. 

So what are you saying?

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25 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

I tend to always reset my thinking apparatus at the beginning of a slam making room for all possible eventualities and trying to think ahead as far as possible. The first rule to trying to predict a match for me is this; if it looks too easy, then it probably is not. Remember it is not always about a player's stats and ability but also about trying to predict his state of mind and trying to gain a possible insight into the matchup by means that cannot be measured, well...apart from instincts. I can safely safely say from experience that the most reliable way to weigh the outcome of a match is in the odds. Odds never lie if you really spend time following its movement. It is really one mystery that defies explanation. It is the reason why I could just look at certain odds and know that there is a lot more hidden that needs to be uncovered. Since the first time I looked at Gregoire's odds I have for some reason smelt danger, and it is not from thinking that he is a better player than Tsitsipas. I just think Tsitsipas looks suspect going into this slam especially having already had his mini run. Here is the point worthy of note. Gregoire has the feeling of being to fresh to go down 3-0. He has already played more than a handful of games inc qualifiers to prepare him for this. He also beat some useful players like Napolitano and Bolt along the way. The latter, a player that I have high regards for on grass even as much as giving him a slight chance against Edmunds. Also it is not a very wise move to be taking -2.5 sets at the begining of a slam especially when players are fresh and trying to establish a rythym. Just too chancy in my opinion. I will even be extra cautious for win only purposes. All the same, good luck to you!

I'm not buying that, he beat Alex Bolt in Ilkley qualifying so what, he lost the match 2 days later to Kamil Majchrzak 3-6 1-6. Stefanos will eat Greg.

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Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Evgeny Donskoy +2.5 sets 1.787 stake: 5/10

I don't know if Kohlschreiber is ready for a Best of Five. He looked very shaky recently. The second and third set vs Ebden in Halle (his favorite tournament) was one of the worst grass court matches i have ever seen from him. I doubt he will play three sets in a row on his highest level right now. Donskoy might not be the most trustable opponent here so i have to take the set handicap instead the money line but i think he should take at least one set here.

 

Ivo Karlovic vs Mikhail Youzhny 2.060 stake: 4/10

No idea if it's a good idea to back Karlovic with 50/50 odds on grass as his return game isn't anything special but i do not trust Youzhny 1% here, his level drops from time to time and this will be crucial vs a big serving opponent like Karlovic. I think he should have the edge here in the end. 

 

 

 

 

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Federer R. - Lajovic D.

The week before last at Halle, just before playing Coric, 3 or 4 members here were questioning Federer's fitness but no one was bold enough to tip Coric unfortunately (won @ 6.00)

And out of those same members not one of them thought Federer could win Wimbledon, I hope they're right!

Minimum stakes for me: Lajovic to beat Federer @ 23.00 with Bet365 (as short as 11.00 with some bookies)

Minimum stakes again: Lajovic e.w. to win SW19 @ 1001.00 (50% payout to reach the final)

Yes that is one thousand to one with Bet365 & BetVictor

Good luck all :ok

Edited by yogg

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Roger Federer/Dusan Lajovic over 29.5 games at 1.94 with Pinnaclesports

No brainer here, I can see Dusan able to hold serve enough to push the games over the total of 29. Last season he met Fed in SW19 and then it was 30 games. I think Dusan will be good enough for at least that to happen again. Not mutch different match image expected with high probability of at least one tie-break or 7-5 set.

Nicolas Jarry (-1.5 sets) to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.72 with Paddypower

Filip doesn't have the greatest record in SW19 as he's only played in maindraw once in 2015 when he lost in 4 against another Nicolas with surname Mahut. His only win has been in qualifying 2014 when he beat Mate Delic in 2. Now he also hasn't played since march in Miami and Nicolas already has warmed up for this. Accidentally Nicolas happens to be ranked exactly the same as the other Nicolas was ranked when Filip was beaten by him in 2015. Nicolas warmed up by playing one match in Eastbourne and was the only player to take a set off Mischa Zverev as he won the first set in that match. Nicolas playing pretty good on grass after all even though he likes clay the most. He qualified for SW19 last season beating Dennis Novikov in last quali round in 4. Filip also likes clay the most and not faster surfaces but the reason why he went far in Paris masters last season was because Paris is a slower hardcourt. I think Filip only comes to collect the check and we'll see him on clay soon.

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2 hours ago, yogg said:

Federer R. - Lajovic D.

The week before last at Halle, just before playing Coric, 3 or 4 members here were questioning Federer's fitness but no one was bold enough to tip Coric unfortunately (won @ 6.00)

And out of those same members not one of them thought Federer could win Wimbledon, I hope they're right!

Minimum stakes for me: Lajovic to beat Federer @ 23.00 with Bet365 (as short as 11.00 with some bookies)

Minimum stakes again: Lajovic e.w. to win SW19 @ 1001.00 (50% payout to reach the final)

Yes that is one thousand to one with Bet365 & BetVictor

Good luck all :ok

Some crazies are laying Lajovic @ 34 on Smarkets. Loaded up to trade in play as think this will be close. 

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Roger Federer/Dusan Lajovic over 29.5 games at 1.94 with Pinnaclesports

No brainer here, I can see Dusan able to hold serve enough to push the games over the total of 29. Last season he met Fed in SW19 and then it was 30 games. I think Dusan will be good enough for at least that to happen again. Not mutch different match image expected with high probability of at least one tie-break or 7-5 set.

Nicolas Jarry (-1.5 sets) to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.72 with Paddypower

Filip doesn't have the greatest record in SW19 as he's only played in maindraw once in 2015 when he lost in 4 against another Nicolas with surname Mahut. His only win has been in qualifying 2014 when he beat Mate Delic in 2. Now he also hasn't played since march in Miami and Nicolas already has warmed up for this. Accidentally Nicolas happens to be ranked exactly the same as the other Nicolas was ranked when Filip was beaten by him in 2015. Nicolas warmed up by playing one match in Eastbourne and was the only player to take a set off Mischa Zverev as he won the first set in that match. Nicolas playing pretty good on grass after all even though he likes clay the most. He qualified for SW19 last season beating Dennis Novikov in last quali round in 4. Filip also likes clay the most and not faster surfaces but the reason why he went far in Paris masters last season was because Paris is a slower hardcourt. I think Filip only comes to collect the check and we'll see him on clay soon.

I like the Fed/Lajovic bet, I think Lajovic will make this difficult for Fed.

Re: Jarry - it does make me nervous backing against players who have not played much. You may be right but Krajinovic could have been spending a month preparing for Wimbledon. I always seem to get defeated by this speculative bets when I've not seen someone play recently. 

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5 minutes ago, JusticePunting said:

Some crazies are laying Lajovic @ 34 on Smarkets. Loaded up to trade in play as think this will be close. 

I like the Fed/Lajovic bet, I think Lajovic will make this difficult for Fed.

Re: Jarry - it does make me nervous backing against players who have not played much. You may be right but Krajinovic could have been spending a month preparing for Wimbledon. I always seem to get defeated by this speculative bets when I've not seen someone play recently. 

Match practice is what a player needs, not off the court preparations a month before a grand slam. Of course Filip has been preparing for this grand slam but why didn't he play any grass matches in Netherlands, England, Germany or Turkey? If he's got no fitness problems I wonder why he skipped the hole preparation for this grand slam. All the doubts surrounding Filip coupled with his bad stats on grass, particularly in SW19 makes me pick Nicolas to win comfortably.

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Match practice is what a player needs, not off the court preparations a month before a grand slam. Of course Filip has been preparing for this grand slam but why didn't he play any grass matches in Netherlands, England, Germany or Turkey? If he's got no fitness problems I wonder why he skipped the hole preparation for this grand slam. All the doubts surrounding Filip coupled with his bad stats on grass, particularly in SW19 makes me pick Nicolas to win comfortably.

I take your point and followed as Unibet offering 1.83 on the line. I do think its value - I thought you had good rationale. Just expressing some of my experiences when backing players who have returned from injury - they tend to perform a strong first match but struggle to pull a series of matches together. Let's hope Filip is (primarily) here for the payout. 

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Daniil Medvedev vs Borna Coric @3.66 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Coric looked in great shape in Halle but it is still a Grand Slam and a first round, you never know and Coric isn't the guy i trust most in such a situation especially vs a very tough opponent who can fire bombs on fast surfaces. Medvedev was one of the biggest surprises on grass last year where he reached the qf. in Rosmalen and Queens + the sf. in Eastbourne, also reached the second round of Wimbledon beating Wawrinka in the first round. Medvedev is a hot & cold player who needs a good feeling and rythm on court, if he has it he can trouble almost anyone out there on faster surfaces. Coric is still a guy who is well known for folding in big tournaments & matches, his win vs Federer was no fluke obviously because he has the talent and the tools but losing his head and nerves too often. Medvedev is able to frustrate Coric and can win this.

Sam Querrey vs Jordan Thompson over 35.5 games @2.000 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Thompson has all the abilities to hold it close i think. Querrey on the other side isn't well known for his ability to destroy his opponents. Last year he went life and death with Fabbiano for two sets, also lost a set to Basilashvili in the second round. Last year Thompson was able to win a set vs Querrey in Queens, they had 31 games in three sets and i really think we will see at least four sets today. 

 

 

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NICHOLAS JARRY VS KRAJINOVIC

This on the face of it looks very wide open but not without some pointers. Firstly in my humble opinion 4/9  3/10 & 8/13 all come from the same stock of wigi board craft. Secondly, I would not require any assistance with mathematical probability to help me reach a decision in this sort of seemingly open affair. One man from Chile and the other from Serbia on a grass court speaks volumes. I agree that match practice is invaluable in terms of getting a player ready for a tournament. But I guess that is why we are human and distinct and unique species. Some players just do not conform to those fundamental rules. Take Radwanska for example, she returned from a long break only to continue spanking those who had already benefitted from match practice. Jarry played one match on grass and I do not think it puts him in any point of advantage to be considered the winner of this match. At 7/4 and being the higher seed, I believe Krajinovic looks primed for victory here. I will be quite shocked if this man called Jarry wins this. Good luck all!!!

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11 hours ago, JusticePunting said:

I take your point and followed as Unibet offering 1.83 on the line. I do think its value - I thought you had good rationale. Just expressing some of my experiences when backing players who have returned from injury - they tend to perform a strong first match but struggle to pull a series of matches together. Let's hope Filip is (primarily) here for the payout. 

He's not only there for the payout, he wants match fitness and best of 5 sets on grass may come too soon.

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Krajinovic missed the whole clay season due to a leg injury and he wasn't able to practice on grass till a couple of days ago. He started playing slight points about two weeks ago on hardcourt because he didn't want to play on grass directly after the injury because of the movement. I can't see him being ready for a Best of 5 match tbh.

I can't understand how sb. is writing that he would be "quite shocked" if Krajinovic loses this. 

Jarry is the clear favorite and should take it, he has the right game for grass with his height and power, his serve is a massive weapon. Krajinovic form is more than questionable including his fitness.

Edited by opole

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