BillyHills Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 April 14th, Aintree 5.15pm 4m2½f (4m2f74y) Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (7yo+) Previous Winners Key Trends: 20/20 Had at lest 3 starts this season 19/20 Ran within 2 months 19/20 Won at 3m or more 17/20 Irish or French Bred 7/10 Rated 148 or above 16/20 Carried 11st or less 15/20 Aged under 11 13/20 Placed last time out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 26, 2018 Author Share Posted March 26, 2018 Grand National is only 3 weeks away so I thought I'd get this thread up nice and early and hopefully get plenty of differing views about the greatest race on earth! Many think its a completely different race these days due to the fences being made a little easier. This has led to the 'better' horses taking part and pushing the ratings higher and higher. Last year you needed to have a horse rated 143 to get a run, 10 years ago it was 137, 15 years ago it was 132. Whether the changes have made the race a better contest or not is open to debate, just because the horses are rated higher it doesn't mean you get a better spectacle. I quite liked seeing a 130 rated horse having a go at a big pay day, maybe we should have a 'Silver National'........ Anyway the race doesn't get any easier to predict, look at the SP's for last 10 years! Will be back with some early thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 My bet this year will be a sentimental one. Three years ago Maggio failed to make the cut as he did 2 years ago and then won a consolation race on supposedly unsuitable soft ground at 50/1 on national day. He has been aimed purely at this race for the last 3 years for owners who triumphed with auroras encore. Last year he was injured in the run up to the race. He is now 13 so age against him but he doesn't run too often so i'm hoping that counts in his favour. Currently 100/1. gbettle, richard-westwood and DanV89 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 (edited) A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed: I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year. Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99. If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1 If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2 The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11 Last year's ratings:The Last Samuri: 90 pts More Of That: 72 ptsShantou Flyer: 52 ptsPerfect Candidate: 74 ptsSaphir Du Rheu: 74 ptsRoi De Francs: 65 ptsWounded Warrior: 81 ptsWonderful Charm: 72 ptsTenor Nivernais: 83 ptsBLAKLION: 99 pts Drop Out Joe: 83 ptsLe Mercurey: 61 ptsThe Young Master: 81 ptsCAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts Regal Encore: 74 ptsVIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts Definitly Red: 92 pts Ucello Conti: 74 ptsDouble Shuffle: 79 ptsHoublon Des Obeaux: 67 ptsPleasant Company: 81 ptsOne For Arthur: 92 pts Ballynagour: 58 ptsO'Faolains Boy: 74 ptsHighland Lodge: 92 pts Bishops Road: 85 ptsLord Windermere: 90 pts Saint Are: 83 ptsVincente: 83 ptsJUST A PAR: 99 pts Measureofmydreams: 90 pts Raz De Maree: 79 ptsStellar Notion: 56 ptsRogue Angel: 76 ptsCocktails At Dawn: 56 ptsThunder And Roses: 92 pts Gas Line Boy: 92 pts Goodtoknow: 79 ptsLa Vaticane: 72 ptsDoctor Harper: 72 pts And the years that were used for the data were back scored:2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts2015 1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts2. Saint Are: 76 pts3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts2014 1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts2. Balthazar King: 90 pts3. Double Seven: 90 pts2013 1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts3. Teaforthree: 99 pts If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment. Edited March 31, 2018 by FleetFanatic corky, BillyHills and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 14 hours ago, FleetFanatic said: A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed: I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year. Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99. The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11 Last year's ratings:The Last Samuri: 90 pts More Of That: 72 ptsShantou Flyer: 52 ptsPerfect Candidate: 74 ptsSaphir Du Rheu: 74 ptsRoi De Francs: 65 ptsWounded Warrior: 81 ptsWonderful Charm: 72 ptsTenor Nivernais: 83 ptsBLAKLION: 99 pts Drop Out Joe: 83 ptsLe Mercurey: 61 ptsThe Young Master: 81 ptsCAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts Regal Encore: 74 ptsVIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts Definitly Red: 92 pts Ucello Conti: 74 ptsDouble Shuffle: 79 ptsHoublon Des Obeaux: 67 ptsPleasant Company: 81 ptsOne For Arthur: 92 pts Ballynagour: 58 ptsO'Faolains Boy: 74 ptsHighland Lodge: 92 pts Bishops Road: 85 ptsLord Windermere: 90 pts Saint Are: 83 ptsVincente: 83 ptsJUST A PAR: 99 pts Measureofmydreams: 90 pts Raz De Maree: 79 ptsStellar Notion: 56 ptsRogue Angel: 76 ptsCocktails At Dawn: 56 ptsThunder And Roses: 92 pts Gas Line Boy: 92 pts Goodtoknow: 79 ptsLa Vaticane: 72 ptsDoctor Harper: 72 pts And the years that were used for the data were back scored:2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts2015 1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts2. Saint Are: 76 pts3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts2014 1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts2. Balthazar King: 90 pts3. Double Seven: 90 pts2013 1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts3. Teaforthree: 99 pts If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment. Amazing stats........very interesting.....like you said a lot of work but could be a genuine shot at tricast on the day as a reward ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I missed out a couple of minor scoring points... so have edited the original post slightly.Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99. If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1 If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2 That is how One for Arthur, for example scored 92. Met all the trends except one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glentoby Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Trends are as bad as stats,easy to highlight the winner meeting the trends and stats whilst forgetting how many of the other 40 runners met them but lost???? Not too many years ago I took on the stats/trend guys.............their statements of fact included. French breds do not win the National Horses beaten in the Dante do not win the Derby AP has not won the national Progeny of Montjeu cannot win at the Chelt Fest These are but a few where it was proven that a statistic is only as factual as the last occurence and as profitable as looking at trends to pick one individual horse when more than one fit the profile unless of course putting one up BEFORE the actual contest every time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 1, 2018 Author Share Posted April 1, 2018 Obviously more than one horse will meet the trends, we are not totally stupid, its just a way of narrowing down the field for some. gbettle, DanV89 and FleetFanatic 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 21 hours ago, Glentoby said: Trends are as bad as stats,easy to highlight the winner meeting the trends and stats whilst forgetting how many of the other 40 runners met them but lost???? Not too many years ago I took on the stats/trend guys.............their statements of fact included. French breds do not win the National Horses beaten in the Dante do not win the Derby AP has not won the national Progeny of Montjeu cannot win at the Chelt Fest These are but a few where it was proven that a statistic is only as factual as the last occurence and as profitable as looking at trends to pick one individual horse when more than one fit the profile unless of course putting one up BEFORE the actual contest every time? Maybe it was a fluke, but look at the results of the winners & close finishers. Bar 1 winner & 2 places (Saint Are twice), they all score 90+. Last year was the first time this was used. It got 6 of the first 7 in the race. Did you? I've just screenshot my bet history from then, stakes blanked out obviously. Bet365 also did an offer that morning, meaning I got 10 bets on for the price of 5. I hope they do that again this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 On 01/04/2018 at 11:11 PM, FleetFanatic said: Maybe it was a fluke, but look at the results of the winners & close finishers. Bar 1 winner & 2 places (Saint Are twice), they all score 90+. Last year was the first time this was used. It got 6 of the first 7 in the race. Did you? I've just screenshot my bet history from then, stakes blanked out obviously. Bet365 also did an offer that morning, meaning I got 10 bets on for the price of 5. I hope they do that again this year. Really interesting and well done on last years bets. 6 of the first 7 can’t be a fluke, too much of a coincidence. As Graham says, if nothing else it’s a really effective way of narrowing down a field of 40 - you’re bound to get the odd anomaly in a race of that nature. I imagine it’s fairly time consuming going through each runner and scoring them according to the above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Captain Redbeard 50/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 (edited) Anyway I am going to start work on this this weekend. On 30/03/2018 at 3:40 PM, FleetFanatic said: Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99. If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1 If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11 Will only be going though those aged 8-11 as if you fail that criteria you can only score 88. Done the first 10 already! Edited April 7, 2018 by FleetFanatic Max without age is 88 not 89 gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 (edited) First 40 plus next 7 in the weights. In comparing RPR to OR, the OR used for the race weights is used, not what the weight is already due to change to. MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67 BLAKLION 83 ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90 THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81 VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49 TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74 ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65 GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72 PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74 SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90 TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58 CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE VICENTE (FR) 92 TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99 REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83 VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83 CHASE THE SPUD 83 WARRIORS TALE 74 SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74 GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83 PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74 UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76 SAINT ARE (FR) AGE BEEVES (IRE) 81 RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81 VIRGILIO (FR) 74 BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE MAGGIO (FR) AGE PENDRA (IRE) 81 BUYWISE (IRE) 65 CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67 LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72 BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGEMILANSBAR (IRE) 99 FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 56 DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)83 THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 76 As it stands, either I've done something wrong or this isn't as strong as last year? Edited April 10, 2018 by FleetFanatic Removed Non-Runners WiggoBets and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Good luck mate, will deffo be following this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Omg ...Mullins ....Nicholls and Elliot 3 of the 6 ....3 of the biggest gangsters in the game ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Just finished rating grand national top 45 runners .... Milansbar. 605 Regal encore. 589 Rathvinden. 577 These 3 are well clear of the rest so on my ratings I'd be surprised if one of the 3 doesn't go close ........milansbar isn' in yet currently 45 so needs 5 to drop out before sat which is likely .......rathvinden was on my shortlist ....and as milansbar and rathvinden are both on fleets shortlist above they've now become ultra interesting.......Regal encore is the surprise package ...no one' mentioned but he' popped up in ratings ........current prices top 3 33/1 ...33/1...20/1 BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Rathvinden is doubtful, as is Bellshill who ran a few days ago. 5 don't need to drop out, we are already without numbers 10, 21 & 25. What did you rate Tiger Roll? I have backed this horse so many times, glad it scored 90+ in mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, FleetFanatic said: Rathvinden is doubtful, as is Bellshill who ran a few days ago. 5 don't need to drop out, we are already without numbers 10, 21 & 25. What did you rate Tiger Roll? I have backed this horse so many times, glad it scored 90+ in mine. Tiger roll I rated 537 ......and he' 8 yr old so combination made me rule him out .....he' well fancied and Elliot horse so I woujdnt put off anyone backing him but for purposes of narrowing the field I omitted everyone not within shouting distance so looks like just milansbar and regal encore for me then so far .......regal encore was the surprise for me but the more I read the more I like him .......but tiger roll definately is top 6 so has to be in any shortlist and trainer can do no wrong currently https://www.racingpost.com/news/richie-mclernon-eyes-grand-national-compensation-after-regal-encore-rehearsal/326116 Edited April 9, 2018 by richard-westwood gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 Latest Decs Top Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 FREE - Grand National Media guide pdf Lots of stats and useful information https://www.randoxhealthgrandnational.co.uk/content/uploads/2018/02/RHGNMG2018onlinesmallerfinal.pdf DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 One I am on Ante Post at 33/1 is Gas Line Boy. Finished 5th last year at 50/1, had just the three runs since then in veteran chase company and has ran brilliantly in all 3 including the grand Sefton over the national fences at Aintree, loves a bit of cut in the ground and has a good pilot on board who has a good Aintree record. Only thing going against him is his age. 33/1 is still available in some places and that is tremendous value in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glentoby Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Here is a trend and stat,my GN pick a few weeks ago was Seeyouatmidnight,backed at 40s and 33s ew before he was qualified and continued until his "Qualifier" at Newbury,even now 16s is acceptable if you are not already on. However he has been bought by the owners of Chevely Park Stud,a habit they have of buying horses a few days or weeks before the race.They did win with Party Politics but failed since so according to stats and trends he has NO CHANCE because lightening NEVER strikes twice in the same place? Bullshit of course in terms of fact and not stats or trends but maybe my original reply did decry trends and stats too offhand for some.However my point was and still is that trends and stats can be manipulated before and after an event which is no good if a profit from betting is hoped for,bearing in mind a bet has to be before an event. e.g Willie Mullins and Gigginstown had never won the Irish National until this year,using trends and stats few would have found the winner. Trends and stats are fine for some and as Billy Hills says not all are stupid and might use them to thin out a large field like the GN,fair enough but the bookies already have this info and built in to their tissue mostly so where is the value? The value is in opposing the stats and trends not to mention self satisfaction imo when you have cracked the puzzle e.g Neptune Collonges.My very good friend,once the youngest licenced bookie in the UK recalls his dad doing his nuts as a layer up until Nicholas Silver saved the day.The only reason 33/1 was available when Neptune won was because of the stats and trends i.e No Grey since NS etc,never factoring in the small percentage of greys taking part since NS.Without factoring in percentages etc it makes stats and trends a sheep following exercise doomed to failure for serious punting and long term profit As soon as someone mentions being accomodated by Bet 365 the red flag goes to the top of the mast,unless you have been limited to "maximum bet" option 10p win,you know you have failed to make a profit. All that apart good luck in however you bet,not here to judge only to help,sometimes it is better to be cruel to be kind although not sure about current trends?????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Glentoby said: Here is a trend and stat,my GN pick a few weeks ago was Seeyouatmidnight,backed at 40s and 33s ew before he was qualified and continued until his "Qualifier" at Newbury,even now 16s is acceptable if you are not already on. Sorry Glentoby, where did you tip this at 40/1, cant seem to find it anywhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glentoby Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 You wont find it anywhere Billy,I did not say I had tipped him...........merely backed him which btw the post was not about.My tip is him but at 16/1 ew if anyone has any interest. HTH BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 8 hours ago, Glentoby said: You wont find it anywhere Billy,I did not say I had tipped him...........merely backed him which btw the post was not about.My tip is him but at 16/1 ew if anyone has any interest. HTH Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest. Anyway, it was a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning . gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 1 hour ago, BillyHills said: Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest. Anyway, it was a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning . any idea on the ground billy? i know it drains well but got to be soft at least? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 Latest going waynecoyne 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 Ok here we go with my version of the 'Trends' selection Key Trends: 20/20 Had at least 3 starts this season We lose Tenor Nivernais, Seeyouatmidnight, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Saint Are, Pendra, Children's List. Lord Windermere. (8)19/20 Ran within 2 months We lose Minella Rocco, Alpha Des Obeaux, Perfect Candidate, Carlingford Lough, Warriors Tale, Gas Line Boy, Raz De Maree, Virgilio, Buywise, (9)17/20 Irish or French Bred We lose Blaklion, Chase The Spud, (2)7/10 Rated 148 or above We lose I Just Know, Baie Des Iles, Captain Redbeard, Final Nudge, All Reserves (8)16/20 Carried 11st or less We lose Anibale Fly, The Last Samuri, Valseur Lido, Total Recall, Gold Present, Shantou Flyer (6)15/20 Aged under 11 We lose Beeves, Maggio, Houblon Des Obeaux, Bless The Wings, Milansbar, Double Ross, Road To Riches (7) Horses Left: Vicente, Tiger Roll, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, The Dutchman 13/20 Placed last time out We Lose Vicente, The Dutchman (both Pulled Up), Vieux Lion Rouge (4th of 6) 19/20 Won at 3m or more Tiger Roll, Regal Encore both have won over 3m Selections Tiger Roll 12/1 Paddy Power (EW first 6) Regal Encore 33/1 Paddy Power (EW first 6) richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Ive backed regal encore at 33/1 6 places 10pts ew ....waiting on milansbar to confirm for certain before backing him BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Ive backed regal encore at 33/1 6 places 10pts ew ....waiting on milansbar to confirm for certain before backing him is there a doubt about him running Richard? you could always do nrnb richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.