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BOB PATRICK

VAN DER WHIEL

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Have any of you read any of the books attributed to VAN DER WHIEL? he was a contributor to the now defunct SPORTING CHRONICLE HANDICAP (SCHB) BOOK, a newspaper from long ago. i say books, but they are more like booklets. SYSTEMATIC  betting was mostly about horses with high speed figs dropped in class, which probably inspired me to the results I got some 20 or 30 years ago. I don't know how many others there were but 2 I bid for on e-bay recently are mainly a compilation of his letters and answers from the  SCHB . I was the only bidder for these and got them for a fiver each. I'd read them before but had long forgotten. Another one of his went for about £40, wonder what was in that. In the ones I got he talks about betting only in high class races and dividing prize money by runs (eg. a horse has won £100,000 in its last 6 races so its "form figure" is 16666 rounded down to 166, then adding up its form figures , so, say they were 124632 =18), the lower the better (111111 would =6) Also the least days since it had run the better. So he was looking for a horse that came out top on all 3 factors he claims to have had 29 winners out of 32 in the late 70's with this method . Personally I don't believe it. Anyone know if it is true?

Edited by BOB PATRICK

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I have bought books by the Flying Dutchman and have press cutting from the old handicap book.  The formula for finding the class horse is slightly different from what you say I don't know if you have done this purposely because in the Flying Dutchmans original articals some of the components to his theory were missing and you had to try and work them out.

It works better on the flat because the ground in theory stays the same for a long time, the original time ratings are long gone along with the handicap book and the class rating was created using the old Sporting life form I have used it on the Racing post form but the 4th piece of the rating formula is to find a good separate rating system and use that.

I had some success with the system however patience is a virtue waiting for decent racing and also there is wait for the racing to settle down because all the horses must have recent runs other wise before you start you have a unknown factor in debutants which are difficult to weight up.

 

 

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On 3/9/2018 at 3:37 AM, BOB PATRICK said:

Have any of you read any of the books attributed to VAN DER WHIEL? he was a contributor to the now defunct SPORTING CHRONICLE HANDICAP (SCHB) BOOK, a newspaper from long ago. i say books, but they are more like booklets. SYSTEMATIC  betting was mostly about horses with high speed figs dropped in class, which probably inspired me to the results I got some 20 or 30 years ago. I don't know how many others there were but 2 I bid for on e-bay recently are mainly a compilation of his letters and answers from the  SCHB . I was the only bidder for these and got them for a fiver each. I'd read them before but had long forgotten. Another one of his went for about £40, wonder what was in that. In the ones I got he talks about betting only in high class races and dividing prize money by runs (eg. a horse has won £100,000 in its last 6 races so its "form figure" is 16666 rounded down to 166, then adding up its form figures , so, say they were 124632 =18), the lower the better (111111 would =6) Also the least days since it had run the better. So he was looking for a horse that came out top on all 3 factors he claims to have had 29 winners out of 32 in the late 70's with this method . Personally I don't believe it. Anyone know if it is true?

29 winners out of 32? Yeah, that's possible I guess but with short price favourites. You won't get that betting on 16/1's though :lol

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I have not posted on the forum for some time but noticed this thread in passing .I helped Tony Peach compile his VDW booklets so I might be able to provide some info or insight for anyone interested.

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'newbie punter' hardly describes me as i have been following UK racing since 1951 :). Ignore that, just to show that I am not talking out of the top of my hat here is an extract from a VDW letter to Sports Forum, SCHB from 8 March 1979. It is quite controversial really as it is VDW replying to himself in a prevoius letter from one of his aliases, G Hall. The extract I am providing details the first 'system' he advised rather than a method. It is the last paragraph from the letter:

'Has Spotted he Mthod's Key'

'If our friend insists upon more bets he may care to note the two shortest priced forecast favourites at the two main meetings and check their merit using the same criteria as in the other method. Again he will achieve a high win ratio, but alas, the prices will be short although profitable'.

(this is me Jackform. There are two selections today that meet the requirements.

Nottingham 2.00 Space Blues

Brighton 3.25 Geetanjali).

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I seldom follow VDW as the filter for the main criterion is a high percentage of good, meaning winning form, in the past three races where a runner finished the course. On top of that it needs to be a good class race and the two requirements don't occur all that often - 'festivals' and sometimes weekends. Punchestown 4.20, 5.30, 6.40 look OK today but Irish layers are pretty mean when it comes to odds on fancied runners. Can't be of any more help than that opposite your inquiry.

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This is an example of a 'key'race IMO.

Punchestown 6.05 (going forecast yielding, light rain)

Column headings: cloth no/forecast/£ class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast

1. xxxxx = 5* Al Boum Photo (13/8 mkt 09.30)

2. xxxxx = 5* Bellshill (11/2)

4. xxxxx = 5* Kemboy (6/4)

Comment:

As I have not put them through the 'subject to further consideration' this is the ATR form verdict for the race:

Ruby Walsh hasn't had much luck in some of the big Grade 1 staying chases this season having selected Bellshill in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (pulled up) and Savills Chase at Leopardstown (fourth), with both contests won by the other Willie Mullins inmates in here, but he looks to have got it right with impressive Betway Bowl winner KEMBOY. The seven-year-old's supporters will have wondered what might have been but for a first-fence blunder at Cheltenham given the authority of that Aintree performance, and he can make it six wins from his last seven. Gold Cup hero Al Boum Photo is a big danger but needs some give in the ground to be seen at his best, while Monalee will find this trip testing his stamina once more.

 

Edited by Jackform
update odds

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This may be of interest to some. The VDW 'elementary mechanical procedure' for non-hcap flat races employs different filters from that of the jumps. The info is from a VDW 'article' (Tony Peach told me he was paid £50 a time) from the Raceform Update 10 Oct 81 - 'A Word About Evaluating Form' . There are six filters but as far as I can see only the first four matter and hew was using the Ken Hussey SF whereas I have to use Topspeed.

Newmarket (going forecast GF showers) RP Spotlight selects Madhmoon (7 pundits agree 21 oppose)
3.35 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 16, 18 indicating a win restricted to these.

Column headings: cloth no/consistency/£ class/Topspeed best SF/SF weight adjusted/SF (last 2 filters not x*)

1. XX0X= 3* Advertise 3 tips, 203 days off track? M Meade/L Dettori (7/1 mkt 09.50)
2. 0XOO= 1*
6. OXOO= 1*
7. OXOO= 1*
9. XXOO= 2* Madhmoon 8 tips, 28 off track, D2. K Prendergast/C Hayes (13/2)
10. XXXX= 4* Magna Grecia 4 tips, off track 189?, D. AP O'Brien/D O'Brien (9/2)
13. OOXO= 1*
16. XXOO= 2* Skardu 2 tips, 17 days off track, C&DC. W Haggas/P Cosgrove (15/2)
18. XXXX= 4* Ten Sovereigns, 217 off track? C. AP O'Brien/R Moore (10/3)

Comment: On paper it looks like an Irish benefit race :). A point on 1, 10 & 18 for interest could see us home.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
This is one of the most open 2000 Guineas in a long time but the marginal preference is for TEN SOVEREIGNS, who completed his unbeaten juvenile season with a victory in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f here in late September. He certainly has the class to win a race of this nature but the step up in trip has to be a slight concern. If the son of No Nay Never were to fail to see out the extra couple of furlongs then his stablemate Magna Grecia could be the main beneficiary. The Vertem Futurity Trophy winner is a certain stayer and his only defeat came when a neck second to Persian King in the Autumn Stakes over C&D in October. Skardu narrowly defeated Momkin in the Craven here last month but both will have to step up to take this stronger event. Madhmoon was a beaten favourite on his return but it is too soon to be writing him off, while Great Scot and Urban Icon could go best of those at bigger odds.

This is my modified Fineform rating as a further comparison. Just the top four ratings, Skardu next on 92.

1. Advertise 93
9. Madhmoon 105
10. Magna Grecia 108
18. Ten Sovereigns 108.5



 

Edited by Sir Puntalot
deleted some info

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This thread seems to have died the death   :) but as I have some time to spare just a basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' in this just about a 'key' race.

Ascot 4.00 (going forecast GS with some S showers) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Presidential (3 pundits agree 22 oppose).

7. Cape Byron 5*, 2 tips (8/1 mkt 14.15)
11. Kynren 5*, 4 tips (15/2)
22. Presidential 5*, 4 tips (8/1)

Comment: At the odds 1 point each the three for interest.

ATR form verdict in comparison as my three were not 'subject to further consideration'
Ripp Orf (2*)landed this race 12 months ago and he went on to win again over C&D off a mark just 2lb lower than this in September. The five-year-old ran well in the Lincoln on his return but failed to fire in the Spring Cup last time out, although it is far too soon to be writing him off. Kynren is a consistent performer who will be hard to keep out of the frame but he may find one or two too good once again. With that in mind, the preference is for CAPE BYRON, who was only just beaten by Ripp Orf over C&D in September and he is 3lb better off with that rival for a half-length defeat today. The son of Shamardal didn't like the soft ground in the Challenge Cup over this track and trip last time out and he merits the utmost respect as long as the rain stays away. Others to consider are Blue Mist (3*), Glorious Journey (2*) and Presidential.

 

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I'm fascinated by this .....right up my street creating ratings ....not sure how your doing it but I would do it like this 

Take top 2 prize money races each day ...or even 3 if plenty racing 

4 or 5 ratings

Work out class  ....  (total prize money wins/100 ) ÷number of wins 

Recent   add up last 3 form figures  so 211 =4 ......0 would be 10 etc 

Rating 1 ......use postmark 

Rating 2....use top speed or time form 

Possibly give bonus points for first 5 betting non hcaps and first 6 for hcaps 

Might be interesting to rate some races and see where it takes us see if we can refine something 

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Example .....Sunday 325 leop

                             Class         Recent          rate1      rate 2      top 5

1 blenheim        69               13                  105          92      

2 brooms         208                 5                   126          104          y

3 buckhurst     72                3                     89             44

4 guaranteed   217             9                     116           103         y

5 python           62               9                    109             92        y

6 Raman          95              5                       97            81          y

7 sovereign       95               9                   112            96        y 

 

Recent lower figure the better

Pretty straight forward here ......broome unapposable ....miles in front and guaranteed unapposable for 2nd .......interesting to see what happens 

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215 leop Sunday 

Hazapour      307    13     117     109     y

Psychedelic    174     19    118   80   y

Verbal     898     18    116     82   y

Zihba      313      16     109     83     y

Dunkirk   83     6     93    58     

Zuenoon    109  12      100      76   y 

Difficult race .....overall hazapour edges the ratings but verbal dexterity has a high class rating so no mug and zihba has beat verbal this season but former may have needed run .....prediction 

Hazapour 

Verbal dex

Zihba 

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Richard, your reply took me by surprise as I didn't think anyone read the posts :loon.

However, with regard to ratings for VDW assessment I don't actually compile ratings but just follow the basic elementary procedure to star * the 'possibles' and narrow the field, following the 'elementary mechanical procedure'. The following is an extract from a free booklet published by Raceform Update in 1985 after it had taken over the Sporting in 1983:

VDW Update

"This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step-by-step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:-

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.

2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select the most valuable race from other cards.

4. Rate the entire field for ability.

5. Apply selected rating method (meaning assessment) method to entire field."

I had a mate (passed away in 2015) used to sell a VDW rating figures system entitled 'Windicator'. I have an old hard copy example I could probably find and post if it is of any interest?

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12 minutes ago, Jackform said:

Richard, your reply took me by surprise as I didn't think anyone read the posts :loon.

However, with regard to ratings for VDW assessment I don't actually compile ratings but just follow the basic elementary procedure to star * the 'possibles' and narrow the field, following the 'elementary mechanical procedure'. The following is an extract from a free booklet published by Raceform Update in 1985 after it had taken over the Sporting in 1983:

VDW Update

"This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step-by-step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:-

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.

2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select the most valuable race from other cards.

4. Rate the entire field for ability.

5. Apply selected rating method (meaning assessment) method to entire field."

I had a mate (passed away in 2015) used to sell a VDW rating figures system entitled 'Windicator'. I have an old hard copy example I could probably find and post if it is of any interest?

I find anything like this fascinating and im sure a few others do too ......theres definately something to it as it follows sensible form lines .......top 5 betting is where 80% winners come from .....thats proven ......the class rating is good but ive always thought maybe winnings last 3 wins  or 12 monthes might give a better indication of current class as sometimes it can be skewed by old runs from 2 years ago .....

I know they used to run a huge thread on gummy racing years ago and had a lot of success with the vdw ratings .....im certain it can find you winners though 

Certainly wouldnt hurt to rate a few races and maybe come up with a few solid rules ......

Definately the highest value races means everyone is trying for starters so its a good starting point 

Edited by richard-westwood

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