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13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I find anything like this fascinating and im sure a few others do too ......

 

Dont go to the dark side , stick with reality

Next thing you'll be rating races that ran 5 years ago and telling us you backed them and why they won and  how you've found his missing link to untold riches

VDW is like an Aliester Crowley version of the racing post :loon

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8 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Dont go to the dark side , stick with reality

Next thing you'll be rating races that ran 5 years ago and telling us you backed them and why they won and  how you've found his missing link to untold riches

VDW is like an Aliester Crowley version of the racing post :loon

Haha my mate just asked what vdw was 

...and i said its considered the holy grail of racing .....i kinda like being a knight though ...giddy up .....

Besides ...never hurts to have another angle ......when i get time i might rate the odd big race for fun .....i definately think theres something in there  

Edited by richard-westwood

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3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Haha my mate just asked what vdw was 

...and i said its considered the holy grail of racing .....i kinda like being a knight though ...giddy up .....

Look on any VDW thread on the net (ive read a lot) they're all the same ,past races they've won,missing pages,secret ratings.etc etc ,sounds like a script from the Area 51 / Ancient Aliens series

They sussed out the hieroglyphics from ancient Egypt easier than VDWs books.

Ask any so called expert VDW user to put up his selections pre race, you'll get 3 or 4 in one race that cant be dutched as the price is that low, but if one wins they'll crow from the mountain top it provided a winner (conveniently forgetting the losers) or they'll say they cant put it up as it will effect the market (yeh right).

Its total ******* with a capital B

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I have found my example of the Windicator system of rating VDW, alas I am down for gardening this morning and not able to type it up, but I will do it when I get time.

(a note of caution tho': my mate was something of a sharp character and served in the same regiment for sixteen years. He 'fiddled' his way to the top and was promoted captain, whilst I only managed sergeant-major through soldiering. I always called him Bilko and in return I was always Doberman :) ).

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21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

215 leop Sunday 

Hazapour      307    13     117     109     y

Psychedelic    174     19    118   80   y

Verbal     898     18    116     82   y

Zihba      313      16     109     83     y

Dunkirk   83     6     93    58     

Zuenoon    109  12      100      76   y 

Difficult race .....overall hazapour edges the ratings but verbal dexterity has a high class rating so no mug and zihba has beat verbal this season but former may have needed run .....prediction 

Hazapour 

Verbal dex

Zihba 

Straight forecast......lol....and zihba 3rd :loon

Edited by richard-westwood

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Richard for some reason VDW attracts criticism for 'back-fitting', which is understandable although could be excused as he was writing snail mail to be published in the press before personal computers were available. The example races I have posted here are all timed before the event.

Here are further extracts from the 'VDW Update' booklet issued by Raceform Handicap Book (not Update that came later), which may be of interest:

"It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify to new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture, they were:-

1.Narrowing the field.

2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their form figures.

3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps.

4. Using two rating methods (meaning race evaluation not rating figures).

5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points ...'subject to other considerations'.

In March 1981 I suggested 'to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stage of each race.' "

Here is an example of the Windicator VDW rating system that I mentioned:

Mitsubishi Shogun Ascot Chase 29th February 1999

Abt-—Con—-SF---Rat---ACSR---Tot (column headings)

102(4)-15(5)-70(4)-159(5)-4545 = 18 Challenger Du Luc

91(5)-15(5)-79(3)-142(6)-5536 = 19 Chief’s Song

128(3)-5(2)-48(7)-177(2)-3272 = 14 Direct Route

65(7) -10(4)-56(5)-149(6)-7456 = 22 Lake Kariba

134 (2)-19(6)-55(6)-160(4)-2664 = 18 Senor El Betrutti

82 (6)-9(3)-104(2)-170(3)-6323 = 14 Super Coin

153 (1)-3(1)-108(1)-189(1)-1111 = 4 Teeton Mill

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59 minutes ago, aid said:

Did you put anything on it 🤞🏽

I had a 2 quid double with hazapour and broome ....i think i won 7 quid lol but i could retire from my vdw career now while im on top haha ....actually it was almost 9!!....whoppee

Edited by richard-westwood

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3 hours ago, Jackform said:

Richard for some reason VDW attracts criticism for 'back-fitting', which is understandable although could be excused as he was writing snail mail to be published in the press before personal computers were available. The example races I have posted here are all timed before the event.

Here are further extracts from the 'VDW Update' booklet issued by Raceform Handicap Book (not Update that came later), which may be of interest:

"It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify to new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture, they were:-

1.Narrowing the field.

2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their form figures.

3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps.

4. Using two rating methods (meaning race evaluation not rating figures).

5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points ...'subject to other considerations'.

In March 1981 I suggested 'to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stage of each race.' "

Here is an example of the Windicator VDW rating system that I mentioned:

Mitsubishi Shogun Ascot Chase 29th February 1999

Abt-—Con—-SF---Rat---ACSR---Tot (column headings)

102(4)-15(5)-70(4)-159(5)-4545 = 18 Challenger Du Luc

91(5)-15(5)-79(3)-142(6)-5536 = 19 Chief’s Song

128(3)-5(2)-48(7)-177(2)-3272 = 14 Direct Route

65(7) -10(4)-56(5)-149(6)-7456 = 22 Lake Kariba

134 (2)-19(6)-55(6)-160(4)-2664 = 18 Senor El Betrutti

82 (6)-9(3)-104(2)-170(3)-6323 = 14 Super Coin

153 (1)-3(1)-108(1)-189(1)-1111 = 4 Teeton Mill

Yeah thats very similar except they've gone to 4 places in formline .....looks walkover for teeton mill lol 

One thing i have noticed its better to eother put the ranking in each column in brackets or even use stars on top 4 or 5 ...mskes it so much easier when totting up later 

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I had a 2 quid double with hazapour and broome ....i think i won 7 quid lol but i could retire from my vdw career now while im on top haha ....actually it was almost 9!!....whoppee

Haha nice work mate I had the same but then Hatcher let me down.  Have you done a Vdw for any race tomorrow?

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305 muss 

Right   60 (2)   7 (1)   100 (3)    81 (2)   

Liuliwa   107 (1)    28 (5)    102  (1)   46  (6) 

Kupa    53 (4)     11 (2)      95 (7)      82 (1)  

Sure you    37 (8)    7 (1)    96 (6)     72 (3)  

Logi       50 (5)     19 (4)       101 (2)     59 (6) 

How      55 (3)   14 (3)    98 (4)     82 (1)

Jacob     46 (7)    14 (3)    97 (5)     56 (6) 

Gabriel    47 (6)     19 (4)    100 (3)    81 (2)     

Not so straightforward ......on balance 2,4,5 ,7,8 have it all to do leaving 1 3 and 6 

Close between these 3 ....Right action just takes it on balance .....closely followed by how bizarre and kupa river 3rd ...........

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

305 muss 

Right   60 (2)   7 (1)   100 (3)    81 (2)   

Liuliwa   107 (1)    28 (5)    102  (1)   46  (6) 

Kupa    53 (4)     11 (2)      95 (7)      82 (1)  

Sure you    37 (8)    7 (1)    96 (6)     72 (3)  

Logi       50 (5)     19 (4)       101 (2)     59 (6) 

How      55 (3)   14 (3)    98 (4)     82 (1)

Jacob     46 (7)    14 (3)    97 (5)     56 (6) 

Gabriel    47 (6)     19 (4)    100 (3)    81 (2)     

Not so straightforward ......on balance 2,4,5 ,7,8 have it all to do leaving 1 3 and 6 

Close between these 3 ....Right action just takes it on balance .....closely followed by how bizarre and kupa river 3rd ...........

I got 45/1 on the straight tricast good luck Rich 🤞🏽

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The Musselburgh 3.05 is not a VDW 'key' race IMO so I have used the original Fineform system for comparison, where the rating figures are converted to fair odds.

Musselburgh (going forecast GF with some G) RP Spotlight selects Right Action (7 pundits agree 6 oppose)
3.05 Market expected 09.20* nos 1, 3, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. Just a Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating assessment.

1*. 19 = 85/40 fair odds (2/1 mkt) Right Action 8 tips. R Fahey 18 (my rating)/P Hanagan
3*. 13 = 4/1 (11/4 market 09.20) Kupa River 3 tips
4. 13 = 4/1 (8/1) Sureyoutoldme 3 tips
5. 8 = 9/1 (9/1) Logi
6. 5 = 25/1 (10/1) How Bizarre
7. 9 = 15/2 (10/1) Jacob Black 1 tip
8*. 4 = 50/1 (5/1) Gabrial The Tiger 2 tips. R Fahey 8, second string?

Comment: Right Action is the fairly strong favourite early supported by the majority of pundits. Kupa River is forecast the possible contender.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Kupa River had How Bizarre and Jacob Black trailing in his wake when running out a clear-cut winner over track and trip, but he may be forced to settle for a supporting role this time behind RIGHT ACTION. The Richard Fahey-trained five-year-old landed a competitive handicap at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting for the second year in succession, and a 3lb rise may underestimate that performance. Sureyoutoldme has been in fine fettle on the all-weather and isn't out of it either.

 

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1 hour ago, Jackform said:

The Musselburgh 3.05 is not a VDW 'key' race IMO so I have used the original Fineform system for comparison, where the rating figures are converted to fair odds.

Musselburgh (going forecast GF with some G) RP Spotlight selects Right Action (7 pundits agree 6 oppose)
3.05 Market expected 09.20* nos 1, 3, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. Just a Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating assessment.

1*. 19 = 85/40 fair odds (2/1 mkt) Right Action 8 tips. R Fahey 18 (my rating)/P Hanagan
3*. 13 = 4/1 (11/4 market 09.20) Kupa River 3 tips
4. 13 = 4/1 (8/1) Sureyoutoldme 3 tips
5. 8 = 9/1 (9/1) Logi
6. 5 = 25/1 (10/1) How Bizarre
7. 9 = 15/2 (10/1) Jacob Black 1 tip
8*. 4 = 50/1 (5/1) Gabrial The Tiger 2 tips. R Fahey 8, second string?

Comment: Right Action is the fairly strong favourite early supported by the majority of pundits. Kupa River is forecast the possible contender.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Kupa River had How Bizarre and Jacob Black trailing in his wake when running out a clear-cut winner over track and trip, but he may be forced to settle for a supporting role this time behind RIGHT ACTION. The Richard Fahey-trained five-year-old landed a competitive handicap at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting for the second year in succession, and a 3lb rise may underestimate that performance. Sureyoutoldme has been in fine fettle on the all-weather and isn't out of it either.

 

Yeah i agree ....i think racing is poor today .....was a difficult race to rate so good from that perspective  but probably better to rate races and only back when ratings are well ahead not close like this  ....more like the teeton mill example above and big prizemoney races rather than 8000 on a monday 

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So .....creating some solid rules so anyone can follow or do it ....it can look complicated when reading it but with a few simple rules its quite easy  

Rule 1 ....only rate  2 or 3 highest value prizemoney races each day ....?? That seems pretty straightforward does everyone agree on that ?

Rule 2   now the top 5 betting non hcaps and top 6 handicaps .....does that mean you only rate the top 5 etc which obviuosly cuts down workloads or you rate all then mark off top5 or add bonus points ....anyone had any experience with that one ??

I suppose because of the percentage strike rate it should be restricted to top 5 betting non hcaps and top 6 hcaps ....obviuosly if 3 horses all around same price in 5th 6th then include all ......thats a@strict interpretation of vdw rule and can be adjusted later 

So far 

1   top 2 or 3 race prizemoney races of day

2 only rate top 5 betting non hcaps 

   Top 6 in   handicaps 

Edited by richard-westwood

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Richard, IMO rating first 5 non-hcps and 6 hcaps is correct for form consistency, which is the main VDW filter together with the betting forecast. However, for a VDW 'working platform' it is necessary to rate the field for class/ability and supporting time and /or collateral form ratings.

Whilst checking for the 'Windicator' example in my files I came across this letter to the SCHB sports forum in 1981, just an extract:

Taking a sample of races run on a Saturday throughout the 1980 Flat season I cam up with the following results all races valued £2,500+ to the winner and had 8 or more runners (in the top 4 four each filter).

No. of runners/consistency rating/ability rating (column headings)

8-11 45 wins from 62 races 72.6%. 37 wins from 62 59.7%

12-15 11 wins from 35 races 31.4%. 15 wins from 35 42.9%

16+ 14 wins from 17 races 82.3%. 1 win from 17 5.9%

All 70 wins from 114 races 61.4%. 53 wins from 114 46.5%

From the above we see the consistency rating performed very well whereas the ability rating was somewhat disappointing.

(This is me Jack) He did go on to provide an example of how he had decided to use the info from the sample using consistency collateral form and SF:

Consistency/Spotform D. Mirror/Whitford S. Life/Split Second 

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20 minutes ago, Jackform said:

Richard, IMO rating first 5 non-hcps and 6 hcaps is correct for form consistency, which is the main VDW filter together with the betting forecast. However, for a VDW 'working platform' it is necessary to rate the field for class/ability and supporting time and /or collateral form ratings.

Whilst checking for the 'Windicator' example in my files I came across this letter to the SCHB sports forum in 1981, just an extract:

Taking a sample of races run on a Saturday throughout the 1980 Flat season I cam up with the following results all races valued £2,500+ to the winner and had 8 or more runners (in the top 4 four each filter).

No. of runners/consistency rating/ability rating (column headings)

8-11 45 wins from 62 races 72.6%. 37 wins from 62 59.7%

12-15 11 wins from 35 races 31.4%. 15 wins from 35 42.9%

16+ 14 wins from 17 races 82.3%. 1 win from 17 5.9%

All 70 wins from 114 races 61.4%. 53 wins from 114 46.5%

From the above we see the consistency rating performed very well whereas the ability rating was somewhat disappointing.

(This is me Jack) He did go on to provide an example of how he had decided to use the info from the sample using consistency collateral form and SF:

Consistency/Spotform D. Mirror/Whitford S. Life/Split Second 

Ahhhh.... i see what your saying so yes you need all of them for the consistency rating so got to rate all 

1 only rate top 2 /3 highest prize races 

2 rate all runners 

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3.00 York 

Limato 849  11   121   99       (15 )

Brandi   540  9   125  110    (7)

El astro   168   9   117   95   (22)

George Bowen   220   11   117   103   (19)

Hey Jones     77   7   118   110   (16)

Invincible army    230  19  122   100   ( 16)

Major jumbo  230  6  117  100   (14)

Ornate  90   11   109  96  (26)

Projection  120  9   121  107  (15)

Yafta    225   10   121    105   (14) 

Well.......Pretty cut and dry this one ......brando .....5/1 ......can back ew at that price 

1 Top prizemoney race 

2 Rated all horses 

3 Class rating ..total win prizemoney / number of wins then divided by100

Ive also done a recent class rating myself (last 24 monthes )...brando comes out top on that too

4 Recent form ...add up last 3 runs form figures so 213 =6 ......0=10 

5 Rate 1 i used rpr racing post 

6 Rating2  i used topspeed 

7 Then score each section the highest class gets 1 point .....next 2 pts etc 

Recent form ...lowest score gets 1 pt ...2nd lowest 2pts etc 

Rpr ....highest gets 1pt ....2nd highest 2pts etc 

Speed ...highest gets 1pt ...2nd highest 2pts etc 

8 total up scores .....lowest is best 

And thats it in a nutshell 

 

 

 

 

Edited by richard-westwood

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Picking the top prizemoney race of the day is a bit of a random selection protection. Normally the top rated race may be a class 3 or 4 race. Whilst on a quality card at Royal Ascot most of the races would be class 1 or 2. I can understand the logic of concentrating on class 1 races but not the best race on a particular day.

 

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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Picking the top prizemoney race of the day is a bit of a random selection protection. Normally the top rated race may be a class 3 or 4 race. Whilst on a quality card at Royal Ascot most of the races would be class 1 or 2. I can understand the logic of concentrating on class 1 races but not the best race on a particular day.

 

Thats worked quite well over the years with diff systems ....its just seems a quick and easy way to narrow down the racing ....I think once you get over 10000 everyone is there to win and that's mainly what your looking for .......personally I'd rate all races atvthe big meets and choose the best rated ones but if your short on time or patience the highest prize money quickly makes the choice for you so i suppose it takes away any ambiguity or doubt

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I support the opinions in both the previous two posts :) that all the races at festivals or top class cards can be considered. However, I would reduce the number of races concerned by opting for VDW 'key' races. Checking York the only race I found was the 4.05, and even that is not particularly strong, but I will rate it and post shortly.

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3 minutes ago, Jackform said:

I support the opinions in both the previous two posts :) that all the races at festivals or top class cards can be considered. However, I would reduce the number of races concerned by opting for VDW 'key' races. Checking York the only race I found was the 4.05, and even that is not particularly strong, but I will rate it and post shortly.

See i was always taught that you use the highest prizemoney races but this is where vdw gets complicated as there are so many so called variations .....in the basic theory he only considers the top 5 non hcaps yet the die hards say he only ever backed when the top rated horse was in the top 2 in betting ...uurgh ...lol  

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York a top class meeting but the only VDW 'key' race I could identify today was the 4.05.

York (going forecast GF with some G watering)RP Spotlight Steve Boow selects Karnavaal (3 pundits agree 12 oppose)
4.05 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. XXX0X = 4* Space Blues 2 tips (10/3 mkt). C Appleby 22 (my rating)/J Doyle
3. X0XXX = 4* 
5. XX00X = 3*
6. X00XX = 3*
10*. XOXOX = 3* The Night Watch 3 tips (6/1). W Haggas 24/C Fallon (7) riding well.
13*. XX0XO = 3* Karnavaal 4 tips (7/2). (Stoute/Crowley)
15. 0X0XX = 3*

Comment: Just the three and four star* rating and selected the three from the early market expected.

ATR form verdict in comparison (I have not carried out the most important 'subject to other considerations')
Breath Of Air (1*, 8/1 mkt) made a satisfactory return at Newmarket and that performance suggested the son of Bated Breath would take a step forward for going up in distance. Karnavaal will benefit from the drop to 7f after a promising comeback on the Rowley Mile, but William Haggas runners always warrant a second look on the Knavesmire and THE NIGHT WATCH gets the vote. He ran well under a penalty at Salisbury last month and Cieren Fallon's 7lb claim will aid his cause.

 

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