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Jackform

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Everything posted by Jackform

  1. Early market possibles to consider: Brighton (going forecast GS showers) Market odds shown from around 09.40.2.00 Kyllwind 13/22.30 Overwrite 5/63.05 Kyllachys 5/13.35 Oleksander 2/14.10 Hammy End 4/15.15 Firenze Rosa 4/1
  2. Reading an old 1982 copy of the Sporting Chron Hcap Book I found a handicap book code for selections next week in their daily, so I was just trying that out. The selections were Ferrobin, Onboard, Leroy Brown - all lost.
  3. 24/03/19/25/27/31/36/26/28/37 27/26/37/27/20/19/11/34/23/16 10/03/25/27/18/31/19/27/06/26
  4. Today's short shots at the principal meeting. Yarmouth (going forecast G watered light rain) 2.10 Foad, Luna Wish 2.40 Nil 3.10 El Misk, Three Comets 3.40 Sea Of Mystery, Kirtling 4.10 Imhotep 4.40 Invincible Larne, Global Hope 5.10 Merry Banter, Excellent George
  5. Short shots for anyone considering multiples. Brighton (going forecast GF with some G watering) 1.40 Pour La Victoire, Harrogate 2.20 Never In Red, Annie Quickstep 2.40 Ramatuelle, Barnsbrook 3.10 It's How We Roll, Brother in Arms 3.40 Juanito Chico (nap) 4.10 Joyful Dream, De Little Engine 4.40 Big Time Maybe, Threefeetfromgold
  6. First post for some time as there doesn't always seem to be much interaction, which is what I enjoy. However, I will try one today evaluated by my own form ratings converted to odds. Pontefract (going forecast G with some GS) 4.20 Market expected 08.15* nos 2, 3, 4 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1. 1. 34 = 15/2 fair (12/1 mkt) 2*. 70 = 9/2 (3/1) Speed Company 3 tips (DBF) 3*. 87 = 3/1 (7/2) My Reward 3 tips (C&D) T Easterby rates 16/D Allen 4*. 99 = 95/40 (2/1) Volcanic Sky 5 tips (D) 5. 36 = 25/1 (10/1) 6. 47 = 11/1 (11/1) 7. 27 = 250/1 (9/1) Comment: Volcanic Sky for me. ATR form verdict in comparison. VOLCANIC SKY built on two solid efforts at Kempton and Carlisle when gaining his first success of 2019 at Leicester a fortnight ago. Saeed bin Suroor's string are in fine form at present and a 4lb rise might not be enough to stop his progression. Speed Company has been running to a solid level over the past couple of months and is respected, along with Archi's Affaire, who may have needed his first run of the year at York.
  7. Mondays are seldom the high point of the racing week and today is no different. My preference is to look for successful yards sending out runners with some recent form - any rated 20+ are usually OK. Chepstow 2.30 Dilmun Destiny 23 (M Stoute) 3.00 Soft Cover 22 (W Haggas) Windsor 6.40 Revolutionise 22 (R Varian) 7.40 Asian Angel 28 (M Johnston) 8.15 Albert Finney 25 (J Gosden)
  8. Quote Edit Post by voodoow on a few seconds ago There are several VDW 'key' races around the cards to day IMO, but I have opted for the race that stands out. Newbury (going forecast G with some GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Sinjaari (6 pundits agree 16 oppose). 3.00 Market expected 09.35* nos 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16 indicating an open contest. Cloth no/fcast/class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast (column headings) 1*. XOXOO = 2* 2*. XXXXX = 5* Forest Of Dean 4 tips (11/2 mkt). J Gosden 30 (my rating)/F Dettori 3. OOOOO = 0* 5*. OOOOO = 0* 6. XOXOO = 2* 7*. XOXXO = 3* Solid Stone 6 tips (7/2). (M Stoute/RL Moore) 8. OOOOX = 1* 9*. XOXOO = 2* 10. OOOOO = 0* 11*. XXX00 = 3* Sinjaari 7 tips (7/2). W Haggas 27/O Murphy 12 OOOOO = 0* 13*. OOOXX = 2* 14 OOOXO = 1* 15. OOOXX = 2* 16*. OOOOX = 1* Comment: Forest Of Dean is the selection, although dutching the three makes sense. ATR form verdict in comparison. SOLID STONE seems a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver, having looked much better in victory in a Newmarket handicap 32 days ago than when narrowly seeing off the reopposing Forest Of Dean in novice stakes company at the back end of last season. A 6lb rise is fair and he looks sure to be thereabouts at the finish. The aforementioned Forest Of Dean impressed at Doncaster latest and he warrants plenty of respect off 8lb higher, while Headman (2* 9/1)could leave his conditions stakes effort over C&D well behind now switched to handicap company and faced with faster ground conditions. Sinjaari and Good Birthday (2 *2 tips 7/1) add further spice to the race.
  9. VDW 'key' races today at York are the 2.25, 3.00 & 5.05. As the first two are stakes and VDW preferred hcaps I considered the 5.05, although it's dropping down to class 4. Not only that with just 12lb to allot weight for the hcap and RPR rating the field within 3lb it looks tight on paper IMO. I compiled a chart (just a pen-and-paper man still ) with stars for nos 1 - 5 = 4*, 4*, 4*, 5*, 4* and at that stage abandoned the assessment.Loath to give up I compiled a modified Fineform instead although off topic on this thread.York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP spotlight Richard Austen selects Summer Moon (3 pundits agree 10 oppose)5.05 Market expected 09.15* nos 1, 2, 3, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.1*. 92 = 5/1 fair odds (4/1 mkt) Skymax 3 tips. Off track 205 days?2*. 86 = 11/2 (9/4) Laafy 2 tips3*. 71 = 8/1 (13/2) Fraser Island 2 tips. M Johnston 26 (my rating)/S de Sousa)4. 75 = 15/2 (12/1) (M Stoute/RL Moore)5*. 90 = 5/1 (7/2) Summer Moon 4 tips D Winner. M Johnston 29/PJ Macdonald6. 44 = 33/1 (12/1)7. 80 = 13/2 (16/1) (Rochester House D winner, M Johnston 25/F Norton)8. 34 = 400/1 (40/1)9. 51 = 18/1 (12/1)10. 54 = 16/1 (16/1)Comment: Laafy is forecast as a strong fav early but has not registered a good SF yet . I prefer Summer Moon before Fraser Island or dutching.ATR form verdict in comparison. Only two have won at the D.Mark Johnston has taken this handicap twice in the last four years and his trio of runners, headed by Summer Moon, who scored on handicap debut at Windsor 11 days ago, all warrant a fair amount of respect. Skymax has to enter calculations on his Newmarket success last October, but LAAFY might just have the most potential in the field. He built on his two juvenile outings to win at Leicester last month and the extra two furlongs appear in his favour.
  10. York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Escobar (2 pundits agree 19 oppose)3.35 Market Expected 09.40* nos 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.Cloth no/fcast*/class*/consistency*/RPR*/D.Mail Formcast* (column headings)2*. 0X0XX = 3* Escobar 3 tips (12/1 mkt) D O'Meara 9 (my rating)/D Nolan5*. XX0X0 = 38 What's The Story (7/1) 8. XX0XX = 4* Love Dreams 3 tips (17/2) M Johnston 26/PJ Macdonald10*.0X0XX = 3* Firmament (14/1) D O'Meara 9/S Gray11. X0X0X = 3* Hayadh 1 tip (18/1)Comment: These are the best starred* which makes it look difficult for punters on paper as only Hayadh rates a star for consistency. D O'Meara has four runners. Love Dreams 4* each-way at current odds possibly?ATR form verdict in comparison.BERINGER (2* 3 tips 5/1 mkt(went up 3lb for a head success at Newmarket last month and the Lincoln third looks capable of further progression off a career-high mark. Hortzadar (1* 3 tips 15/2 mkt) has won both his starts for David O'Meara and is respected despite a hefty rise in the ratings along with stable companion Waarif (1 tips 2* 18/1 mkt), who wasn't disgraced at Thirsk latest and was second over track and trip last October. The unexposed hat-trick seeker Mutafani (1 tip 2* = best consistency, 338 days off track? 4/1 mkt)is another to note.
  11. Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05. As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot. As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.
  12. Richard, I do not like the York feature race today for the VDW approach, so in comparison to your assessment I employed my modified Clive Holt Master Formula.York (going forecast GF with some G watering) RP Spotlight selects Yafta (7 pundits agree 12 oppose)3.00 Market expected 10.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these. Rated by modified Fineform from RP data online.1*. 72 = 15/2 fair odds.2*. 85 = 11/2 Brando 3 tips (5/1 mkt)3. 30 = 40/14. 59 = 10/15. 59 = 10/16*. 84 = 11/2 Invincible Army 7 tips (11/4). J Tate 21 (my rating)/PJ Macdonald.7. 60 = 10/18. 20 = 400/19*. 80 = 6/1 Projection (8/1)10*. 79 = 13/2 Yafta 8 tips (4/1). R Hannon 17/J CrowleyComment: 2, 6, 10 for dutching? Does not look a strong renewal on paper with the yards taking part IMO.ATR form verdict in comparison.INVINCIBLE ARMY kept good company last year, finishing second in the Sandy Lane Stakes after landing Group 3 honours at Ascot, and although he ran below his best in the Commonwealth Cup, he looked better than ever when winning the Cammidge from Major Jumbo on his return recently and could kick on again this term. Last year's second, Brando, has strong place prospects, while the classy Limato cannot be discounted despite his penalty.
  13. York a top class meeting but the only VDW 'key' race I could identify today was the 4.05.York (going forecast GF with some G watering)RP Spotlight Steve Boow selects Karnavaal (3 pundits agree 12 oppose)4.05 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16 indicating a win restricted to these.1*. XXX0X = 4* Space Blues 2 tips (10/3 mkt). C Appleby 22 (my rating)/J Doyle3. X0XXX = 4* 5. XX00X = 3*6. X00XX = 3*10*. XOXOX = 3* The Night Watch 3 tips (6/1). W Haggas 24/C Fallon (7) riding well.13*. XX0XO = 3* Karnavaal 4 tips (7/2). (Stoute/Crowley)15. 0X0XX = 3*Comment: Just the three and four star* rating and selected the three from the early market expected.ATR form verdict in comparison (I have not carried out the most important 'subject to other considerations')Breath Of Air (1*, 8/1 mkt) made a satisfactory return at Newmarket and that performance suggested the son of Bated Breath would take a step forward for going up in distance. Karnavaal will benefit from the drop to 7f after a promising comeback on the Rowley Mile, but William Haggas runners always warrant a second look on the Knavesmire and THE NIGHT WATCH gets the vote. He ran well under a penalty at Salisbury last month and Cieren Fallon's 7lb claim will aid his cause.
  14. I support the opinions in both the previous two posts that all the races at festivals or top class cards can be considered. However, I would reduce the number of races concerned by opting for VDW 'key' races. Checking York the only race I found was the 4.05, and even that is not particularly strong, but I will rate it and post shortly.
  15. Richard, IMO rating first 5 non-hcps and 6 hcaps is correct for form consistency, which is the main VDW filter together with the betting forecast. However, for a VDW 'working platform' it is necessary to rate the field for class/ability and supporting time and /or collateral form ratings. Whilst checking for the 'Windicator' example in my files I came across this letter to the SCHB sports forum in 1981, just an extract: Taking a sample of races run on a Saturday throughout the 1980 Flat season I cam up with the following results all races valued £2,500+ to the winner and had 8 or more runners (in the top 4 four each filter). No. of runners/consistency rating/ability rating (column headings) 8-11 45 wins from 62 races 72.6%. 37 wins from 62 59.7% 12-15 11 wins from 35 races 31.4%. 15 wins from 35 42.9% 16+ 14 wins from 17 races 82.3%. 1 win from 17 5.9% All 70 wins from 114 races 61.4%. 53 wins from 114 46.5% From the above we see the consistency rating performed very well whereas the ability rating was somewhat disappointing. (This is me Jack) He did go on to provide an example of how he had decided to use the info from the sample using consistency collateral form and SF: Consistency/Spotform D. Mirror/Whitford S. Life/Split Second
  16. The Musselburgh 3.05 is not a VDW 'key' race IMO so I have used the original Fineform system for comparison, where the rating figures are converted to fair odds. Musselburgh (going forecast GF with some G) RP Spotlight selects Right Action (7 pundits agree 6 oppose)3.05 Market expected 09.20* nos 1, 3, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. Just a Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating assessment.1*. 19 = 85/40 fair odds (2/1 mkt) Right Action 8 tips. R Fahey 18 (my rating)/P Hanagan3*. 13 = 4/1 (11/4 market 09.20) Kupa River 3 tips4. 13 = 4/1 (8/1) Sureyoutoldme 3 tips5. 8 = 9/1 (9/1) Logi6. 5 = 25/1 (10/1) How Bizarre7. 9 = 15/2 (10/1) Jacob Black 1 tip8*. 4 = 50/1 (5/1) Gabrial The Tiger 2 tips. R Fahey 8, second string?Comment: Right Action is the fairly strong favourite early supported by the majority of pundits. Kupa River is forecast the possible contender.ATR form verdict in comparison.Kupa River had How Bizarre and Jacob Black trailing in his wake when running out a clear-cut winner over track and trip, but he may be forced to settle for a supporting role this time behind RIGHT ACTION. The Richard Fahey-trained five-year-old landed a competitive handicap at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting for the second year in succession, and a 3lb rise may underestimate that performance. Sureyoutoldme has been in fine fettle on the all-weather and isn't out of it either.
  17. Richard for some reason VDW attracts criticism for 'back-fitting', which is understandable although could be excused as he was writing snail mail to be published in the press before personal computers were available. The example races I have posted here are all timed before the event. Here are further extracts from the 'VDW Update' booklet issued by Raceform Handicap Book (not Update that came later), which may be of interest: "It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify to new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture, they were:- 1.Narrowing the field. 2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their form figures. 3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps. 4. Using two rating methods (meaning race evaluation not rating figures). 5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points ...'subject to other considerations'. In March 1981 I suggested 'to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stage of each race.' " Here is an example of the Windicator VDW rating system that I mentioned: Mitsubishi Shogun Ascot Chase 29th February 1999 Abt-—Con—-SF---Rat---ACSR---Tot (column headings) 102(4)-15(5)-70(4)-159(5)-4545 = 18 Challenger Du Luc 91(5)-15(5)-79(3)-142(6)-5536 = 19 Chief’s Song 128(3)-5(2)-48(7)-177(2)-3272 = 14 Direct Route 65(7) -10(4)-56(5)-149(6)-7456 = 22 Lake Kariba 134 (2)-19(6)-55(6)-160(4)-2664 = 18 Senor El Betrutti 82 (6)-9(3)-104(2)-170(3)-6323 = 14 Super Coin 153 (1)-3(1)-108(1)-189(1)-1111 = 4 Teeton Mill
  18. I have found my example of the Windicator system of rating VDW, alas I am down for gardening this morning and not able to type it up, but I will do it when I get time. (a note of caution tho': my mate was something of a sharp character and served in the same regiment for sixteen years. He 'fiddled' his way to the top and was promoted captain, whilst I only managed sergeant-major through soldiering. I always called him Bilko and in return I was always Doberman ).
  19. Richard, your reply took me by surprise as I didn't think anyone read the posts . However, with regard to ratings for VDW assessment I don't actually compile ratings but just follow the basic elementary procedure to star * the 'possibles' and narrow the field, following the 'elementary mechanical procedure'. The following is an extract from a free booklet published by Raceform Update in 1985 after it had taken over the Sporting in 1983: VDW Update "This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step-by-step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:- 1. Select the most valuable race on the card. 2. Consider the next most valuable race. 3. Select the most valuable race from other cards. 4. Rate the entire field for ability. 5. Apply selected rating method (meaning assessment) method to entire field." I had a mate (passed away in 2015) used to sell a VDW rating figures system entitled 'Windicator'. I have an old hard copy example I could probably find and post if it is of any interest?
  20. This thread seems to have died the death but as I have some time to spare just a basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' in this just about a 'key' race.Ascot 4.00 (going forecast GS with some S showers) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Presidential (3 pundits agree 22 oppose).7. Cape Byron 5*, 2 tips (8/1 mkt 14.15)11. Kynren 5*, 4 tips (15/2)22. Presidential 5*, 4 tips (8/1)Comment: At the odds 1 point each the three for interest.ATR form verdict in comparison as my three were not 'subject to further consideration'Ripp Orf (2*)landed this race 12 months ago and he went on to win again over C&D off a mark just 2lb lower than this in September. The five-year-old ran well in the Lincoln on his return but failed to fire in the Spring Cup last time out, although it is far too soon to be writing him off. Kynren is a consistent performer who will be hard to keep out of the frame but he may find one or two too good once again. With that in mind, the preference is for CAPE BYRON, who was only just beaten by Ripp Orf over C&D in September and he is 3lb better off with that rival for a half-length defeat today. The son of Shamardal didn't like the soft ground in the Challenge Cup over this track and trip last time out and he merits the utmost respect as long as the rain stays away. Others to consider are Blue Mist (3*), Glorious Journey (2*) and Presidential.
  21. This may be of interest to some. The VDW 'elementary mechanical procedure' for non-hcap flat races employs different filters from that of the jumps. The info is from a VDW 'article' (Tony Peach told me he was paid £50 a time) from the Raceform Update 10 Oct 81 - 'A Word About Evaluating Form' . There are six filters but as far as I can see only the first four matter and hew was using the Ken Hussey SF whereas I have to use Topspeed. Newmarket (going forecast GF showers) RP Spotlight selects Madhmoon (7 pundits agree 21 oppose) 3.35 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 16, 18 indicating a win restricted to these. Column headings: cloth no/consistency/£ class/Topspeed best SF/SF weight adjusted/SF (last 2 filters not x*) 1. XX0X= 3* Advertise 3 tips, 203 days off track? M Meade/L Dettori (7/1 mkt 09.50) 2. 0XOO= 1* 6. OXOO= 1* 7. OXOO= 1* 9. XXOO= 2* Madhmoon 8 tips, 28 off track, D2. K Prendergast/C Hayes (13/2) 10. XXXX= 4* Magna Grecia 4 tips, off track 189?, D. AP O'Brien/D O'Brien (9/2) 13. OOXO= 1* 16. XXOO= 2* Skardu 2 tips, 17 days off track, C&DC. W Haggas/P Cosgrove (15/2) 18. XXXX= 4* Ten Sovereigns, 217 off track? C. AP O'Brien/R Moore (10/3) Comment: On paper it looks like an Irish benefit race . A point on 1, 10 & 18 for interest could see us home. ATR form verdict in comparison. This is one of the most open 2000 Guineas in a long time but the marginal preference is for TEN SOVEREIGNS, who completed his unbeaten juvenile season with a victory in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f here in late September. He certainly has the class to win a race of this nature but the step up in trip has to be a slight concern. If the son of No Nay Never were to fail to see out the extra couple of furlongs then his stablemate Magna Grecia could be the main beneficiary. The Vertem Futurity Trophy winner is a certain stayer and his only defeat came when a neck second to Persian King in the Autumn Stakes over C&D in October. Skardu narrowly defeated Momkin in the Craven here last month but both will have to step up to take this stronger event. Madhmoon was a beaten favourite on his return but it is too soon to be writing him off, while Great Scot and Urban Icon could go best of those at bigger odds. This is my modified Fineform rating as a further comparison. Just the top four ratings, Skardu next on 92. 1. Advertise 93 9. Madhmoon 105 10. Magna Grecia 108 18. Ten Sovereigns 108.5
  22. This is an example of a 'key'race IMO. Punchestown 6.05 (going forecast yielding, light rain) Column headings: cloth no/forecast/£ class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast 1. xxxxx = 5* Al Boum Photo (13/8 mkt 09.30) 2. xxxxx = 5* Bellshill (11/2) 4. xxxxx = 5* Kemboy (6/4) Comment: As I have not put them through the 'subject to further consideration' this is the ATR form verdict for the race: Ruby Walsh hasn't had much luck in some of the big Grade 1 staying chases this season having selected Bellshill in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (pulled up) and Savills Chase at Leopardstown (fourth), with both contests won by the other Willie Mullins inmates in here, but he looks to have got it right with impressive Betway Bowl winner KEMBOY. The seven-year-old's supporters will have wondered what might have been but for a first-fence blunder at Cheltenham given the authority of that Aintree performance, and he can make it six wins from his last seven. Gold Cup hero Al Boum Photo is a big danger but needs some give in the ground to be seen at his best, while Monalee will find this trip testing his stamina once more.
  23. I seldom follow VDW as the filter for the main criterion is a high percentage of good, meaning winning form, in the past three races where a runner finished the course. On top of that it needs to be a good class race and the two requirements don't occur all that often - 'festivals' and sometimes weekends. Punchestown 4.20, 5.30, 6.40 look OK today but Irish layers are pretty mean when it comes to odds on fancied runners. Can't be of any more help than that opposite your inquiry.
  24. 'newbie punter' hardly describes me as i have been following UK racing since 1951 . Ignore that, just to show that I am not talking out of the top of my hat here is an extract from a VDW letter to Sports Forum, SCHB from 8 March 1979. It is quite controversial really as it is VDW replying to himself in a prevoius letter from one of his aliases, G Hall. The extract I am providing details the first 'system' he advised rather than a method. It is the last paragraph from the letter: 'Has Spotted he Mthod's Key' 'If our friend insists upon more bets he may care to note the two shortest priced forecast favourites at the two main meetings and check their merit using the same criteria as in the other method. Again he will achieve a high win ratio, but alas, the prices will be short although profitable'. (this is me Jackform. There are two selections today that meet the requirements. Nottingham 2.00 Space Blues Brighton 3.25 Geetanjali).
  25. I have not posted on the forum for some time but noticed this thread in passing .I helped Tony Peach compile his VDW booklets so I might be able to provide some info or insight for anyone interested.