VAN DER WHIEL

[richard-westwood]

No I was just playing with it lol.....cant even remember what I was doing your probably right maybe I'd got it back to front lol?

[Jackform]

I am still struggling to come to terms with the time off track but it's where we are. Anyway the old VDW basic provided the good s yesterday so just more of the same   .

 

Newmarket (going forecast GF rain) RP Spotlight selects El Chef (1 pundit agrees 12 oppose)

4.10 Market expected 10.00* no's 3 5, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.Theoretical strong fav 11/4, possible contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1. 

 

1. 1 = 33/1 VDW fair odds (18/1 mkt)

2. 3 = 10/1 (18/1)

3*. 6 = 9/2 (9/4) Montatham 6 tips LTO 200? (BF) W Haggas/J Crowley

4. 3 = 10/1 (22/1)

5*. 5 = 6/1 (11/2) El Chef 2 tips LTO234? (D2)

6. 0 = ? (14/1)

7. 2 = 16/1 (18/1)

8. 0 = ? (22/1)

9*. 4 = 15/2 (9/1) Black Lotus LTO 227?

10*. 5 = 6/1 (9/2) Jalaad 2 tips LTO216? (D)

11. 0 = ? (18/1)

12*. 5 = 6/1 (11/1) Pinnata LTO 91? (D6)

 

Comment: Montatham is currently the strong favourite with Jalaad look the two to dutch - don't they? 

 

ATR form verdict in comparison.

MONTATHAM, who made a winning seasonal debut in 2019, remains unexposed and his performances at the back end of last year suggest that he should be capable of winning off his current mark. Jalaad has a similar profile to the selection and the son of Kodiac should not be underestimated this afternoon. Ambassadorial was in good form on the dirt at Meydan earlier in the year but he is yet to show his best form on the turf. Others to note are Alfred Boucher, Loch Ness Monster and Nonios.

Top Tip: MONTATHAM (3)
Watch out for: JALAAD (10)

[Jackform]

Getting on for 43 years since Gordon Hill (VDW), the old fantasist,  first wrote in the Sporting Chron Handicap Book and yet still gets interest, so there has to be something in it - doesn't  there? He is no longer with us to answer for himself and I'm no spring chicken as I was in my 40's when he first came on the scene ?.

On other matters, after some time he introduced rating figures into the mix and that caused some confusion between rating as measurement and ratings as figures, which was never quite resolved. He did emphasize that rating figures were best just considered as a guide. However, he did introduce two sets of rating figures into his 'working platform' to confirm the second 'elementary mechanical procedure' - one set was the private handicap of Nigel Day as the Daily Mail Formcast and the other set was his own, which he never disclosed.

Where are we going with this? I am just going to use 2 sets of figures to assess a race.

Wolverhampton (going forecast standard) RP Spotlight selects Roman Mist (5 pundits agree 8 oppose)

5.15 Market expected 10.20* no's 2, 5, 6 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 1/1, possible contender2/1, not expected longer than 4/1.

Rating figures are My own/Daily mail Formcast and runners considered are those where the top three in each coincide.

1. 9/2 (mkt 10.20) 23/71

2*. 11/4 34*/77* Host 4 tips (10/3 My fair odds)

3, 6/1 19/76*

5*, 4/1 35*/76* Woke Media 2 tips (10/3)

6*. 7/4 34*/78* Roman Mist 6 tips (7/4)

Comment:  I prefer Woke Media as the DM Simcock yard has been going reasonably well.

ATR vedict in comparison. 

Woke Media built on her 7f victory at Southwell with a 1m second at Newcastle last time. However, she had no extra to offer in the closing stages last time and may be vulnerable over this slightly longer trip, so preference is instead for HOST, who bids to gain compensation for his near miss in a 1m Lingfield maiden two weeks ago. Mercurius Power is a potential improver on his handicap bow and is another to consider.

Top Tip: HOST (2)
Watch out for: WOKE MEDIA (5)

[MCLARKE]

I vaguely remember this, was it not supposed to be of use in higher class races ?

[Hendredenny]

As the ability aspect was based on dividing prize money won by the total no of races won then I would have thought the logic would be to stick to quality races. The form aspect was related to the last 3 races. Mix the two up and you have the winner, easy, but then it always seemed to be too complicated for me

[richard-westwood]

Was always touted as the holy grail ....interesting to use but never met anyone who's made good money from it ........somebody always knows someone who got rich but I've never met one lol ??

[Villa Chris]

A few months back I was picking my horses based on prize money won divided by races ran. It started off well but then had a bad run . There’s logic to prize money won if used right, I reckon. I preferred using it in handicap races and not grade 1&2s . 

[Jackform]

After all this time many overlook the time-line factor with the VDW approach due to the fact that it was all by letter week after week, no computers about then. If you just read the Tony Peach booklets then it is all condensed. As there has been some interest I will put together a timeline of the significant correspondence from the Sporting Chron as I still have a file off cuttings from the time, although they are getting rather dog-eared now.

It won't include the Roushayd approach for following trainers taken up by VDW followers, but just the basic 'elementary mechanical procedures' as he called them. In my opinion he evolved the total approach over over time. Some of the correspondence were articles paid for by the Chron for £50 a time, although this was never disclosed (Tony Peach who was editor of Sports Forum at the time volunteered this information when I had a night out with him).

[Jackform]

As I don't wish to be flogging a dead horse and boring members to death I have written up the first year of the VDW correspondence to illustrate the point I made about the time-line. If there is interest I will continue with my one finger typing chore ?:

VDW time-line notes from Sports Forum SCHB cuttingsof the time

2 Feb 78. First letter ‘How about a swop shop?

23 Mar 78. ‘Odd man out hands in staking plan.’

6 Apr 78. ‘Narrow the field to gain winning strip’. (a letter in reponse to G Hall from C Van der Wheil – a deception as this was a letter to himself?)

Suggests two factors can be couple together to leave three horses for consideration...consistent horses...the first 5 in the betting forecast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps..if weadd the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast together we have a numerical picture...a high percentage of winners come from the three least figures...leaving out sellers and novice handicaps it often traps the winner in all the races on the card...(giving an example race)...using two methods of rating (evaluation not rating figures) I found that the three strred horses came out best.

1 Jun 78. ‘Numbers game to form a picture’. (this letter is extremely significant as it greatly increased readers interest).

(answering criticism from SCHB Methodmaker)...he omitted to mention that I stated with regard to the numerical picture...this can be very illuminating and show SUBJECT TO OTHER CONSIDERATIONS, the good betting propositions...(gives examples of consistency)... from my own extensive surveys...(examples of consistency percentages and Sandown)...since the opening of the flat I have placed 32 bets (IMO coupled odds of three) of which 29 won.

(This is me. I will break of there as the next letter is from the 3 Mar 79 over a year since we started. You may like to note no mention of class by prize money or form rating figures yet, except for form placings of course).

[Jackform]

Everybody has disappeared, never mind! These are the consistent selections as per the 6 Apr 78 method with no 'subject to further consideration'. Could be interesting as the VDW approach has never done well at the AW tracks in my experience.

Kempton (going forecast standard to slow)

2.05 Dorking Lad 7, Torn And Frayed 8, Leylak 9

2.40 Roque It 6, Royal Pretender 10 (won 11/2), Iron Heart 11 (3rd 9/2)

3.10 Elusive Belle 9, Tomorrow Mystery 9 (won 4/1), To Fly Free 14

3.40 Son Of Camas 7, Flying Sofa 8, Topofthecotswolds 9

4.15 Lust For Glory 8, Majaam 8, Beyond The Clouds 8

4.45 Before Midnight 7 (7/2), Calva D'Auge 8, Flashing Glance 8

Edited February 12, 2021 by Jackform
added info

[Navillus]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but AW racing was not about when VDW first wrote to the forum. I was astonished to learn that G.Hall and VDW were the same which calls into question was it all a giant con to keep selling the paper? I have all the booklets, but cannot answer the question why in an earlier example Sunset Christo stood out. The more I look at the other examples i.e. The Old Fella 12/1 a"scrubbers race " it seems to me that the examples given fit the method, I am sure that any method can pick winners if tweaked.

 

 

[MCLARKE]

It might be worth looking at this for the graded races at the festival to test it.

I was never convinced many years ago but perhaps a few winners at Cheltenham might persuade the doubters.

 

[Jackform]

@navillus, you are correct as AW racing began at Lingfield, 30 Oct 1989. G. Hall as Van der Wheil also used another alias in sports forum GR Lincolnshire, and we will come to that if I continue the notes from the cuttings I have. I knew Tony Peach well and he was not aware of the deception and he was an honest man in his dealing with me. At the time he was also the sleeping partner in Browzers books run by a chap named Seddon.

[Jackform]

As there is interest, anyone wishing to get ahead of the pack could look in this forum where they have lifted actual  scans of my cuttings from elsewhere, although they do acknowledge my Jackform nickname.

kimmypopsracing.proboards. com   Classified Racing & Sports Forum

Van der Wheil & Oldtimers Review

VDW reference library - other items of interest - Jackforms archive.

(P.S. I still believe the timeline when all this happened is important to the overall understanding of the approach).

 

[Jackform]

I have never been completely enthusiastic about the VDW approach as I disagree with some of his ideas e.g., calculating consistency from the past three races where the horse finished rather than the last three races whatever the result. So, a horse with form 111PFP would rate 3 - no way for me. Also where a horse has only 2 outings say 43 and the last place result again to make three rating 10. Time moves on and I have tried updating with something I feel more comfortable with. Today just the past three races rated  my way.

Southwell (going forecast standard to slow) market odds shown from around 10.45.

12.45 Comeatchoo 29 (9/4), San Juan 14 (8/11) (won 4/6)

1.15 Abrag 23 (10/3)(won 7/2), Jack Of Trades 22 (2/1), Cheeky Az 15 (13/8) (2nd 6/5)

1.45 Black Box 24 7/2, Dr Jekyll 20 (7/2)(2nd 10/3), Moralaix 20 (2/1) (won 11/8)

2.15 Eccessable 26 (2/1), Vape 25 (4/1), Too Shy Shy 20 (5/2)

2.45 Bill Cody 24 (5/4) (won 5/6), Be My Sea 21 (4/1), Atomic Jack 13 (9/4) (2nd 7/2)

3.15 Blackcurrent 23 (5/2), True hero 15 (13/8) (won 5/2), Navajo Dawn 10 (13/2)

3.45 Palazzo 27 (5/2), Iva Reflection 23 (7/2), Deb's Delight 19 (5/1),Equidae 16 (7/2) (won 11/2)

Edited February 12, 2021 by Jackform
added info