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Richard, I do not like the York feature race today for the VDW approach, so in comparison to your assessment  I employed my modified Clive Holt Master Formula.

York (going forecast GF with some G watering) RP Spotlight selects Yafta (7 pundits agree 12 oppose)
3.00 Market expected 10.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these. Rated by modified Fineform from RP data online.

1*. 72 = 15/2 fair odds.
2*. 85 = 11/2 Brando 3 tips (5/1 mkt)
3. 30 = 40/1
4. 59 = 10/1
5. 59 = 10/1
6*. 84 = 11/2 Invincible Army 7 tips (11/4). J Tate 21 (my rating)/PJ Macdonald.
7. 60 = 10/1
8. 20 = 400/1
9*. 80 = 6/1 Projection (8/1)
10*. 79 = 13/2 Yafta 8 tips (4/1). R Hannon 17/J Crowley

Comment: 2, 6, 10 for dutching? Does not look a strong renewal on paper with the yards taking part IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
INVINCIBLE ARMY kept good company last year, finishing second in the Sandy Lane Stakes after landing Group 3 honours at Ascot, and although he ran below his best in the Commonwealth Cup, he looked better than ever when winning the Cammidge from Major Jumbo on his return recently and could kick on again this term. Last year's second, Brando, has strong place prospects, while the classy Limato cannot be discounted despite his penalty.

 

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Tomorrow's Dante 

Almania      25

Japan     13

Line of duty     9

Nayef road     20

Surfman    23

Telecaster   20

Too darn hot     5

Turgenev   19

Landslide either too darn hot   or line of duty ....Line of duty no mug either so dutch i think 

7.91 at 5/4  Too darn 

2.09 at 15/2 line of 

7.80 profit either 

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Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05.

As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot.

As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.

Edited by Jackform
typo

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York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Escobar (2 pundits agree 19 oppose)
3.35 Market Expected 09.40* nos 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

Cloth no/fcast*/class*/consistency*/RPR*/D.Mail Formcast* (column headings)

2*. 0X0XX = 3* Escobar 3 tips (12/1 mkt) D O'Meara 9 (my rating)/D Nolan
5*. XX0X0 = 38 What's The Story (7/1) 
8. XX0XX = 4* Love Dreams 3 tips (17/2) M Johnston 26/PJ Macdonald
10*.0X0XX = 3* Firmament (14/1) D O'Meara 9/S Gray
11. X0X0X = 3* Hayadh 1 tip (18/1)

Comment: These are the best starred* which makes it look difficult for punters on paper as only Hayadh rates a star for consistency. D O'Meara has four runners. Love Dreams 4* each-way at current odds possibly?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
BERINGER (2* 3 tips 5/1 mkt(went up 3lb for a head success at Newmarket last month and the Lincoln third looks capable of further progression off a career-high mark. Hortzadar (1* 3 tips 15/2 mkt) has won both his starts for David O'Meara and is respected despite a hefty rise in the ratings along with stable companion Waarif (1 tips 2* 18/1 mkt), who wasn't disgraced at Thirsk latest and was second over track and trip last October. The unexposed hat-trick seeker Mutafani (1 tip 2* = best consistency, 338 days off track? 4/1 mkt)is another to note.

 

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On 5/15/2019 at 11:51 AM, richard-westwood said:

Tomorrow's Dante 

Almania      25

Japan     13

Line of duty     9

Nayef road     20

Surfman    23

Telecaster   20

Too darn hot     5

Turgenev   19

Landslide either too darn hot   or line of duty ....Line of duty no mug either so dutch i think 

7.91 at 5/4  Too darn 

2.09 at 15/2 line of 

7.80 profit either 

Disappointing to say  least....anyway you get the jist ....ill stick to my own ratings though lol ....barely enough time to do them let alone these too  

Edited by richard-westwood

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VDW 'key' races today at York are the 2.25, 3.00 & 5.05. As the first two are stakes and VDW preferred hcaps I considered the 5.05, although it's dropping down to class 4. Not only that with just 12lb to allot weight for the hcap and RPR rating the field within 3lb it looks tight on paper IMO. I compiled a chart (just a pen-and-paper man still :() with stars for nos 1 - 5 = 4*, 4*, 4*, 5*, 4* and at that stage abandoned the assessment.
Loath to give up I compiled a modified Fineform instead :) although off topic on this thread.

York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP spotlight Richard Austen selects Summer Moon (3 pundits agree 10 oppose)
5.05 Market expected 09.15* nos 1, 2, 3, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.

1*. 92 = 5/1 fair odds (4/1 mkt) Skymax 3 tips. Off track 205 days?
2*. 86 = 11/2 (9/4) Laafy 2 tips
3*. 71 = 8/1 (13/2) Fraser Island 2 tips. M Johnston 26 (my rating)/S de Sousa)
4. 75 = 15/2 (12/1) (M Stoute/RL Moore)
5*. 90 = 5/1 (7/2) Summer Moon 4 tips D Winner. M Johnston 29/PJ Macdonald
6. 44 = 33/1 (12/1)
7. 80 = 13/2 (16/1) (Rochester House D winner, M Johnston 25/F Norton)
8. 34 = 400/1 (40/1)
9. 51 = 18/1 (12/1)
10. 54 = 16/1 (16/1)

Comment: Laafy is forecast as a strong fav early but has not registered a good SF yet . I prefer Summer Moon before Fraser Island or dutching.
ATR form verdict in comparison. Only two have won at the D.
Mark Johnston has taken this handicap twice in the last four years and his trio of runners, headed by Summer Moon, who scored on handicap debut at Windsor 11 days ago, all warrant a fair amount of respect. Skymax has to enter calculations on his Newmarket success last October, but LAAFY might just have the most potential in the field. He built on his two juvenile outings to win at Leicester last month and the extra two furlongs appear in his favour.

 

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Post by voodoow on a few seconds ago

There are several VDW 'key' races around the cards to day IMO, but I have opted for the race that stands out.

Newbury (going forecast G with some GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Sinjaari (6 pundits agree 16 oppose).
3.00 Market expected 09.35* nos 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16 indicating an open contest.

Cloth no/fcast/class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast (column headings)

1*. XOXOO = 2*
2*. XXXXX = 5* Forest Of Dean 4 tips (11/2 mkt). J Gosden 30 (my rating)/F Dettori
3. OOOOO = 0*
5*. OOOOO = 0*
6. XOXOO = 2*
7*. XOXXO = 3* Solid Stone 6 tips (7/2). (M Stoute/RL Moore)
8. OOOOX = 1*
9*. XOXOO = 2*
10. OOOOO = 0*
11*. XXX00 = 3* Sinjaari 7 tips (7/2). W Haggas 27/O Murphy
12 OOOOO = 0*
13*. OOOXX = 2*
14 OOOXO = 1*
15. OOOXX = 2*
16*. OOOOX = 1*

Comment: Forest Of Dean is the selection, although dutching the three makes sense.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
SOLID STONE seems a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver, having looked much better in victory in a Newmarket handicap 32 days ago than when narrowly seeing off the reopposing Forest Of Dean in novice stakes company at the back end of last season. A 6lb rise is fair and he looks sure to be thereabouts at the finish. The aforementioned Forest Of Dean impressed at Doncaster latest and he warrants plenty of respect off 8lb higher, while Headman (2* 9/1)could leave his conditions stakes effort over C&D well behind now switched to handicap company and faced with faster ground conditions. Sinjaari and Good Birthday (2 *2 tips 7/1) add further spice to the race.



 

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