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Escaping Captivity

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Everything posted by Escaping Captivity

  1. I don't get it. If you had confidence in your system why didn't you begin with the extra £2k and not introduce it when you're going through an indifferent patch? Sounds like impatience and indiscipline to me. I take it you've thoroughly researched the results of past trixies?. If you haven't, I wouldn't "inject" anything more into it if I was you.
  2. There's quite a few games available to download to your phone at the moment. My current favourite is Photo Finish where you primarily play the role as jockey. It's similar to another game called Rival Stars which is named Phar Lap or something on the PS4. There's a more in-depth model called iHorse Racing which I haven't go into yet due to the fiddly interface. Virtual Horse Racing 3D is a game where you just place bets but I uninstalled mine due to it crashing regularly. If you fancy a flutter on the muts though there's one called Virtual 3D Dogs but I haven't played it yet so I can't comment. Video of Photo Finish On a nostalgic note, does anyone remember a game called Racing Manager which was released on the ZX Spectrum back in 1983? My mate and I spent the whole school holidays playing this. Looks crap by todays standards but back then nobody knew any different.
  3. One thing I forgot to mention earlier, Viaticus, is that have you made any projections? By that I mean, how much are you expecting to make each week from your bets? Once you have that figure, you'll have a better idea of how much you need to "invest" to achieve this. This can turn out to be a bit of an eye-opener but it's really important to know what to expect otherwise frustration/indiscipline can set in.
  4. You need to gauge/paper trade your system before betting with it for real. A system with five bets per week will take around two years to gauge to give it a far more accurate assessment. Without assessing properly, you may as well eradicate the "donkeys" from a race then pick a name out of a hat. Of course you can broaden the criteria to create around five bets per DAY which would take about four months. The runner criteria 5-10 is OK. Just don't exceed 14 if you do decide to up the field at some point. As for the other's, I'd expand to create more betting opportunities.
  5. Got to agree with Sir P. In my opinion the most important factor overall is the horse's recent form. Jockeys don't make a regular habit of "polishing turds" that are out of form.
  6. One of these might do the job you specifically want..... https://apps.betfair.com/
  7. Ever come across this fraud before? Lied to everyone including his missus about winning the lottery - so attention seekers like him do exist! Laying may look an easier way of doing things but like backing you still need to find value. Unfortunately it has a smaller window to find worthwhile bets, similar to the odds range stated in the thread title. With backing you can pretty much use the whole spectrum. To look at it another way especially when it comes to outsiders, convert the laying odds to the backing odds. Laying at 2.25 = 1.8 2.50 = 1.67 3.00 = 1.50 4.00 = 1.33 7.00 = 1.17 10.00 = 1.11 15.00 = 1.07 25.00 = 1.04 50.00 = 1.02 100.00 = 1.01
  8. Although I do firmly believe a stream of money can be made from gambling, I'm still sceptical of people's claims. The most famous being the bird from Latvia who has a staking plan named after her. Reckoned she won £97,000 over a period of 10 months by laying horses. First bet was £30. Average laying odds 6.00 approx. Apparently! Hmmmm.
  9. Short-term patterns like that can put us in a false sense of security that's why it's very important to gauge the criteria over a lengthy period such as 500 instances. You also need to take into consideration the regularity of the bets. For example, if you were to punt at those odds on horses only running at Fakenham, how many betting opportunities would you have over a year?
  10. That 'problem' is a punters window of opportunity. Nobody can define the true odds of a horse. All we can do is make an estimation. If the market at the time says 2/1 which equates to a probability of 33.33% and you estimate it at say a 50% chance of winning then you've projected a value bet. Easier said than done though. In contrast, columns in roulette offer the odds of 2/1 and the probability of winning is not even 33.33% because of the house edge. On a European wheel with a single zero the probability is 32.40% - and these are true odds.
  11. Another downside. The odds aren't always available several hours before the race begins. Some races produced them minutes before the off and that sucks. Too much faffing about. Not worth the hassle in my opinion especially with the scrawny odds on offer
  12. I took a butch at this market last week and paper traded a bunch or races over four days. First three went very well but the fourth was a disaster. I liked the idea of it being a two horse race but playing catch-up with skinny odds is no laughing matter so I'm out. There's bigger fish to fry. Good luck anyway GG. Maybe you'll have more patience with this market than I did.
  13. Your odds range is good and I believe a profit can be made from laying but does it surmount as the best way to bet on horses? Not for me because there's too much emphasis on strike rate rather than value. There needs to be more of a balance as laying above 2.00 equates to backing at odds-on. I think BACKING two horses (not dutching) where at least one of the selections predominantly has some "meat on the bone" is a better strategy. The size of the field in each race is vital though. You also need to take into account how long it takes to find your selections for each race. Is it worth the effort for the ROI? As they say "time is money!". Perhaps lighten your workload by concentrating solely on handicaps for laying. Novice and maiden races for example are easier to predict for the backer especially if they have ran well in their previous race.
  14. The best bot is subjective. Use the free trials to see if they suit your needs at a price you're comfortable with. I use Betsender because it does what I want but most importantly I don't have to pay recurring fees. Just a one off payment which was approx. £80 at the time.
  15. I've never really looked into this market. I suppose it's the racing version of under/over 2.5 in football. Are the odds always around the EVENS mark? By the way, what kind of return did you get over those 5 weeks and what staking plan did you use?
  16. Have you bet or paper traded with this market before GG, or is this a spontaneous thing? Good luck anyway!
  17. Yep, I was referring to your last point - but 20% ROI at a strike rate of around 70%....um...that may not be the best system in the world but at those prices it has to be one of the best odds-on systems most definitely. The balance of ROI and S/R is superb. A 20% system with that consistency is like a finely tuned engine. Nice one, Fazman.
  18. If I was into laying, I wouldn't even contemplate horses priced in the region of 16.00. It's far better to back at these odds because they regularly win on a daily basis. If you do decide to lay them, expect a few nasty visits from the devil at some point. By that I mean, randomization - and randomization regularly upsets the formbook. Actually, I wouldn't lay over 4.00 on horses. That's because the corridor between.4.00 and 16.00 (approx.), in my opinion, favours the backer.
  19. Thanks but you're not going to get over 100% ROI when your average winning bets are 1.62. You've miscalculated. In comparison that 100%+ system of mine I mentioned, my average winning bet was over 5.00.
  20. Out of interest Jackform what kind of ROI% are you getting and how many bets on average do you make a day/week?
  21. The system builder on there will generate systems for you based on historic data. There's also an option called Stat Attack Extra Archive where you can download or read info off the screen for every race in the past few months. The info available in this particular section is centred around the win and place percentage for going, distance, course etc. Like I stated previously, you should have a 3 day free trial with no obligation to sign up.
  22. Yeah, once a system gets plastered across the internet, it devaluates. The best strategy is to create your own unique system/s and to keep it to yourself.
  23. Horse Race Base. I pay the old rate of £10 p/m due to being a member for a number of years. I think for new members its £15 p/m now. The free trial of three days should still be available though. There are several downloadable spreadsheets and the best one in my opinion is under the heading "My Report". This is where you can choose over 100 different pieces of info to add to the spreadsheet including the basic stuff associated with a standard racecard like days since run, official rating, headgear etc. Plus..... Win & place % - over a horse's career, distance, course, class, going, direction, surface, month, CD etc. Jockey & trainer stats over different increments, various info about the horse's last three races, miles travelled, lengths beaten in last race, a number of different ratings etc.
  24. Totting up the prize money makes logical sense you would think. Similar to a horse that's racing down in class. Not that simple as it's not uncommon for logic to make no sense whatsoever when it comes to betting on these creatures lol.