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Jackform

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About Jackform

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  • Birthday 02/27/1936

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  1. Early market possibles to consider: Brighton (going forecast GS showers) Market odds shown from around 09.40.2.00 Kyllwind 13/22.30 Overwrite 5/63.05 Kyllachys 5/13.35 Oleksander 2/14.10 Hammy End 4/15.15 Firenze Rosa 4/1
  2. Reading an old 1982 copy of the Sporting Chron Hcap Book I found a handicap book code for selections next week in their daily, so I was just trying that out. The selections were Ferrobin, Onboard, Leroy Brown - all lost.
  3. 24/03/19/25/27/31/36/26/28/37 27/26/37/27/20/19/11/34/23/16 10/03/25/27/18/31/19/27/06/26
  4. Today's short shots at the principal meeting. Yarmouth (going forecast G watered light rain) 2.10 Foad, Luna Wish 2.40 Nil 3.10 El Misk, Three Comets 3.40 Sea Of Mystery, Kirtling 4.10 Imhotep 4.40 Invincible Larne, Global Hope 5.10 Merry Banter, Excellent George
  5. Short shots for anyone considering multiples. Brighton (going forecast GF with some G watering) 1.40 Pour La Victoire, Harrogate 2.20 Never In Red, Annie Quickstep 2.40 Ramatuelle, Barnsbrook 3.10 It's How We Roll, Brother in Arms 3.40 Juanito Chico (nap) 4.10 Joyful Dream, De Little Engine 4.40 Big Time Maybe, Threefeetfromgold
  6. First post for some time as there doesn't always seem to be much interaction, which is what I enjoy. However, I will try one today evaluated by my own form ratings converted to odds. Pontefract (going forecast G with some GS) 4.20 Market expected 08.15* nos 2, 3, 4 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1. 1. 34 = 15/2 fair (12/1 mkt) 2*. 70 = 9/2 (3/1) Speed Company 3 tips (DBF) 3*. 87 = 3/1 (7/2) My Reward 3 tips (C&D) T Easterby rates 16/D Allen 4*. 99 = 95/40 (2/1) Volcanic Sky 5 tips (D) 5. 36 = 25/1 (10/1) 6. 47 = 11/1 (11/1) 7. 27 = 250/1 (9/1) Comment: Volcanic Sky for me. ATR form verdict in comparison. VOLCANIC SKY built on two solid efforts at Kempton and Carlisle when gaining his first success of 2019 at Leicester a fortnight ago. Saeed bin Suroor's string are in fine form at present and a 4lb rise might not be enough to stop his progression. Speed Company has been running to a solid level over the past couple of months and is respected, along with Archi's Affaire, who may have needed his first run of the year at York.
  7. Mondays are seldom the high point of the racing week and today is no different. My preference is to look for successful yards sending out runners with some recent form - any rated 20+ are usually OK. Chepstow 2.30 Dilmun Destiny 23 (M Stoute) 3.00 Soft Cover 22 (W Haggas) Windsor 6.40 Revolutionise 22 (R Varian) 7.40 Asian Angel 28 (M Johnston) 8.15 Albert Finney 25 (J Gosden)
  8. Quote Edit Post by voodoow on a few seconds ago There are several VDW 'key' races around the cards to day IMO, but I have opted for the race that stands out. Newbury (going forecast G with some GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Sinjaari (6 pundits agree 16 oppose). 3.00 Market expected 09.35* nos 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16 indicating an open contest. Cloth no/fcast/class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast (column headings) 1*. XOXOO = 2* 2*. XXXXX = 5* Forest Of Dean 4 tips (11/2 mkt). J Gosden 30 (my rating)/F Dettori 3. OOOOO = 0* 5*. OOOOO = 0* 6. XOXOO = 2* 7*. XOXXO = 3* Solid Stone 6 tips (7/2). (M Stoute/RL Moore) 8. OOOOX = 1* 9*. XOXOO = 2* 10. OOOOO = 0* 11*. XXX00 = 3* Sinjaari 7 tips (7/2). W Haggas 27/O Murphy 12 OOOOO = 0* 13*. OOOXX = 2* 14 OOOXO = 1* 15. OOOXX = 2* 16*. OOOOX = 1* Comment: Forest Of Dean is the selection, although dutching the three makes sense. ATR form verdict in comparison. SOLID STONE seems a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver, having looked much better in victory in a Newmarket handicap 32 days ago than when narrowly seeing off the reopposing Forest Of Dean in novice stakes company at the back end of last season. A 6lb rise is fair and he looks sure to be thereabouts at the finish. The aforementioned Forest Of Dean impressed at Doncaster latest and he warrants plenty of respect off 8lb higher, while Headman (2* 9/1)could leave his conditions stakes effort over C&D well behind now switched to handicap company and faced with faster ground conditions. Sinjaari and Good Birthday (2 *2 tips 7/1) add further spice to the race.
  9. VDW 'key' races today at York are the 2.25, 3.00 & 5.05. As the first two are stakes and VDW preferred hcaps I considered the 5.05, although it's dropping down to class 4. Not only that with just 12lb to allot weight for the hcap and RPR rating the field within 3lb it looks tight on paper IMO. I compiled a chart (just a pen-and-paper man still ) with stars for nos 1 - 5 = 4*, 4*, 4*, 5*, 4* and at that stage abandoned the assessment.Loath to give up I compiled a modified Fineform instead although off topic on this thread.York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP spotlight Richard Austen selects Summer Moon (3 pundits agree 10 oppose)5.05 Market expected 09.15* nos 1, 2, 3, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.1*. 92 = 5/1 fair odds (4/1 mkt) Skymax 3 tips. Off track 205 days?2*. 86 = 11/2 (9/4) Laafy 2 tips3*. 71 = 8/1 (13/2) Fraser Island 2 tips. M Johnston 26 (my rating)/S de Sousa)4. 75 = 15/2 (12/1) (M Stoute/RL Moore)5*. 90 = 5/1 (7/2) Summer Moon 4 tips D Winner. M Johnston 29/PJ Macdonald6. 44 = 33/1 (12/1)7. 80 = 13/2 (16/1) (Rochester House D winner, M Johnston 25/F Norton)8. 34 = 400/1 (40/1)9. 51 = 18/1 (12/1)10. 54 = 16/1 (16/1)Comment: Laafy is forecast as a strong fav early but has not registered a good SF yet . I prefer Summer Moon before Fraser Island or dutching.ATR form verdict in comparison. Only two have won at the D.Mark Johnston has taken this handicap twice in the last four years and his trio of runners, headed by Summer Moon, who scored on handicap debut at Windsor 11 days ago, all warrant a fair amount of respect. Skymax has to enter calculations on his Newmarket success last October, but LAAFY might just have the most potential in the field. He built on his two juvenile outings to win at Leicester last month and the extra two furlongs appear in his favour.
  10. York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Escobar (2 pundits agree 19 oppose)3.35 Market Expected 09.40* nos 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.Cloth no/fcast*/class*/consistency*/RPR*/D.Mail Formcast* (column headings)2*. 0X0XX = 3* Escobar 3 tips (12/1 mkt) D O'Meara 9 (my rating)/D Nolan5*. XX0X0 = 38 What's The Story (7/1) 8. XX0XX = 4* Love Dreams 3 tips (17/2) M Johnston 26/PJ Macdonald10*.0X0XX = 3* Firmament (14/1) D O'Meara 9/S Gray11. X0X0X = 3* Hayadh 1 tip (18/1)Comment: These are the best starred* which makes it look difficult for punters on paper as only Hayadh rates a star for consistency. D O'Meara has four runners. Love Dreams 4* each-way at current odds possibly?ATR form verdict in comparison.BERINGER (2* 3 tips 5/1 mkt(went up 3lb for a head success at Newmarket last month and the Lincoln third looks capable of further progression off a career-high mark. Hortzadar (1* 3 tips 15/2 mkt) has won both his starts for David O'Meara and is respected despite a hefty rise in the ratings along with stable companion Waarif (1 tips 2* 18/1 mkt), who wasn't disgraced at Thirsk latest and was second over track and trip last October. The unexposed hat-trick seeker Mutafani (1 tip 2* = best consistency, 338 days off track? 4/1 mkt)is another to note.
  11. Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05. As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot. As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.
  12. Richard, I do not like the York feature race today for the VDW approach, so in comparison to your assessment I employed my modified Clive Holt Master Formula.York (going forecast GF with some G watering) RP Spotlight selects Yafta (7 pundits agree 12 oppose)3.00 Market expected 10.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these. Rated by modified Fineform from RP data online.1*. 72 = 15/2 fair odds.2*. 85 = 11/2 Brando 3 tips (5/1 mkt)3. 30 = 40/14. 59 = 10/15. 59 = 10/16*. 84 = 11/2 Invincible Army 7 tips (11/4). J Tate 21 (my rating)/PJ Macdonald.7. 60 = 10/18. 20 = 400/19*. 80 = 6/1 Projection (8/1)10*. 79 = 13/2 Yafta 8 tips (4/1). R Hannon 17/J CrowleyComment: 2, 6, 10 for dutching? Does not look a strong renewal on paper with the yards taking part IMO.ATR form verdict in comparison.INVINCIBLE ARMY kept good company last year, finishing second in the Sandy Lane Stakes after landing Group 3 honours at Ascot, and although he ran below his best in the Commonwealth Cup, he looked better than ever when winning the Cammidge from Major Jumbo on his return recently and could kick on again this term. Last year's second, Brando, has strong place prospects, while the classy Limato cannot be discounted despite his penalty.
  13. York a top class meeting but the only VDW 'key' race I could identify today was the 4.05.York (going forecast GF with some G watering)RP Spotlight Steve Boow selects Karnavaal (3 pundits agree 12 oppose)4.05 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16 indicating a win restricted to these.1*. XXX0X = 4* Space Blues 2 tips (10/3 mkt). C Appleby 22 (my rating)/J Doyle3. X0XXX = 4* 5. XX00X = 3*6. X00XX = 3*10*. XOXOX = 3* The Night Watch 3 tips (6/1). W Haggas 24/C Fallon (7) riding well.13*. XX0XO = 3* Karnavaal 4 tips (7/2). (Stoute/Crowley)15. 0X0XX = 3*Comment: Just the three and four star* rating and selected the three from the early market expected.ATR form verdict in comparison (I have not carried out the most important 'subject to other considerations')Breath Of Air (1*, 8/1 mkt) made a satisfactory return at Newmarket and that performance suggested the son of Bated Breath would take a step forward for going up in distance. Karnavaal will benefit from the drop to 7f after a promising comeback on the Rowley Mile, but William Haggas runners always warrant a second look on the Knavesmire and THE NIGHT WATCH gets the vote. He ran well under a penalty at Salisbury last month and Cieren Fallon's 7lb claim will aid his cause.
  14. I support the opinions in both the previous two posts that all the races at festivals or top class cards can be considered. However, I would reduce the number of races concerned by opting for VDW 'key' races. Checking York the only race I found was the 4.05, and even that is not particularly strong, but I will rate it and post shortly.
  15. Richard, IMO rating first 5 non-hcps and 6 hcaps is correct for form consistency, which is the main VDW filter together with the betting forecast. However, for a VDW 'working platform' it is necessary to rate the field for class/ability and supporting time and /or collateral form ratings. Whilst checking for the 'Windicator' example in my files I came across this letter to the SCHB sports forum in 1981, just an extract: Taking a sample of races run on a Saturday throughout the 1980 Flat season I cam up with the following results all races valued £2,500+ to the winner and had 8 or more runners (in the top 4 four each filter). No. of runners/consistency rating/ability rating (column headings) 8-11 45 wins from 62 races 72.6%. 37 wins from 62 59.7% 12-15 11 wins from 35 races 31.4%. 15 wins from 35 42.9% 16+ 14 wins from 17 races 82.3%. 1 win from 17 5.9% All 70 wins from 114 races 61.4%. 53 wins from 114 46.5% From the above we see the consistency rating performed very well whereas the ability rating was somewhat disappointing. (This is me Jack) He did go on to provide an example of how he had decided to use the info from the sample using consistency collateral form and SF: Consistency/Spotform D. Mirror/Whitford S. Life/Split Second