Announcements
** July Nap's Competition Result : 1st Rainbow, 2nd Trainmad091, 3rd Zidane123, KO Cup Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners Alastair, Goodwood Comp: Glavintoby**
**July Poker League Result : 1st Craggwood £75, 2nd Like2Fish £45, 3rd Rivrd £30**

Jackform

Regular Members
  • Content Count

    93
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Jackform

  • Rank
    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 02/27/1936

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. I am still struggling to come to terms with the time off track but it's where we are. Anyway the old VDW basic provided the good s yesterday so just more of the same . Newmarket (going forecast GF rain) RP Spotlight selects El Chef (1 pundit agrees 12 oppose) 4.10 Market expected 10.00* no's 3 5, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.Theoretical strong fav 11/4, possible contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1. 1. 1 = 33/1 VDW fair odds (18/1 mkt) 2. 3 = 10/1 (18/1) 3*. 6 = 9/2 (9/4) Montatham 6 tips LTO 200? (BF) W Haggas/J Crowley 4. 3 = 10/1 (22/1) 5*. 5 = 6/1 (11/2) El Chef 2 tips LTO234? (D2) 6. 0 = ? (14/1) 7. 2 = 16/1 (18/1) 8. 0 = ? (22/1) 9*. 4 = 15/2 (9/1) Black Lotus LTO 227? 10*. 5 = 6/1 (9/2) Jalaad 2 tips LTO216? (D) 11. 0 = ? (18/1) 12*. 5 = 6/1 (11/1) Pinnata LTO 91? (D6) Comment: Montatham is currently the strong favourite with Jalaad look the two to dutch - don't they? ATR form verdict in comparison. MONTATHAM, who made a winning seasonal debut in 2019, remains unexposed and his performances at the back end of last year suggest that he should be capable of winning off his current mark. Jalaad has a similar profile to the selection and the son of Kodiac should not be underestimated this afternoon. Ambassadorial was in good form on the dirt at Meydan earlier in the year but he is yet to show his best form on the turf. Others to note are Alfred Boucher, Loch Ness Monster and Nonios. Top Tip: MONTATHAM (3) Watch out for: JALAAD (10)
  2. Struggling -can't claim that went well. VDW G Hall stated he preferred handicap races, didn't touch two-year-olds or meetings at Epsom or Lingfield - so we are with a hcap at HQ today. The Andrew Balding yard with Edinburgh Castle has currently started the 'new' season well. New Pen-and-paper chart with VDW working platform filters rated and converted to odds. Newmarket (going forecast GF) RP Spotlight selects Look Closely (2 pundits agree 5 oppose) 4.10 Market expected 09.10* no's 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 13 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, possible contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1. 1*.3 = 13/1 VDW fair odds (10/1 mkt) 2*. 7 = 5/1 (7/2) Look Closely 3 tips LTO 256? (D) R Varian/A Alzeni 3*. 3 = 13/1 (6/1) 4*. 3 = 13/1 (11/1) (Dubai Instinct) 5. 1 = 40/1 (28/1) 6*. 6 = 6/1 (11/2) Holy Kingdom 2 tips LTO 216? 7. 3 = 13/1 (14/1) 8. 6 = 6/1 (16/1) Grandee 1 tip LTO 247? (DBF) 9. 1 = 40/1 (50/1) 10. 0 = ? (20/1) 11. 3 = 13/1 (20/1) 12*. 7 = 5/1 (5/2) Edinburgh Castle LTO 223 (BF) A Balding/SW de Sousa Comment: Let's dutch 2 and 12 (A Balding trainer in form) just for interest. As always I am surprised how such simple rating is reflected by the actual betting market. ATR form verdict in comparison. LOOK CLOSELY rates the one to beat on his handicap debut. He was ultra impressive when upped to 1m4f for the first time at Leicester in September, slamming an odds-on shot from Charlie Appleby's yard by six lengths, and potentially looks a fair bit better than his current mark of 90. Dubai Instinct certainly wasn't stopping when successful over 1m2f at Sandown in August and he warrants plenty of respect with Ryan Moore booked for his return, while Edinburgh Castle is another interesting player at the foot of the weights. He has been gelded since last sighted and steps up in trip for his handicap bow. Top Tip: LOOK CLOSELY (2) Watch out for: DUBAI INSTINCT (3)
  3. Time passes and what goes around comes around 🙂. The detailed assessments made lately from compiling a pen and-paper chart have not been doing too well since racing has resumed. The reason being lack of track fitness mainly IMO. That being the case I thought why not try a VDW 'elementary mechanical procedure', because that doesn't include a time off track filter. Lo and behold the first attempt gave the winner and second at 5/1 and 6/1. I had compiled a chart earlier for the Newmarket 5.55 and selected Via Serendipity, dangers Bear Force One next Cliffs Of Capri. In comparison I have compiled a basic VDW working platform just for interest - market, £Class, consitency, RPR, D. Mail Formcast rated them and converted to odds: Newmarket 5.55 (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotight selects Arbiter (3 pundits agree 10 oppose) 1. 0 2. 1 3. 5 = 13/2 My fair odds (20/1 mkt) Cliffs Of Capri 4. 5 = 13/2 (10/3) Bear Force One 5. 3 6. 2 7. 2 8. 3 9. 7 = 9/2 (15/2) Via Serendipity 10. 6 = 5/1 (3/1) Arbiter 11. 2 12. 1 Comment: The VDW selection is still Via Serendipity, danger Arbiter (well I thought it would be interesting to see the result)
  4. I have been trying the American racing during lockdown and finding it difficult to obtain the detailed form information I require for my approach at times. I have settled on selectively following the At The Races form verdict opinions where I find I can agree. Not following the selections blindly but rating 6 or 7 filters and converting them to odds to compare with the early betting market. Gulfstream (going forecast Fs) 21.52 ATR form verdict used for comparison. Malibu Max has been running well in better races of late so has to be considered, but FRONT LOADED got within a nose of success here two weeks ago and has every chance if handling the extra furlong. Examiner is another to note. Top Tip: FRONT LOADED (7) Watch out for: MALIBU MAX (1) I found that I support their three named runners in this case. 1. Malibu Max - rates 20 = 3/1 my fair odds (7/4 early mkt) 6. Examiner - rates 11 = 12/1 (13/2) 7. Front Loaded - rates 25 = 7/4 (2/1) Selection is Front Loaded preferred to Malibu Max at the early market prices.
  5. Early market possibles to consider: Brighton (going forecast GS showers) Market odds shown from around 09.40.2.00 Kyllwind 13/22.30 Overwrite 5/63.05 Kyllachys 5/13.35 Oleksander 2/14.10 Hammy End 4/15.15 Firenze Rosa 4/1
  6. Reading an old 1982 copy of the Sporting Chron Hcap Book I found a handicap book code for selections next week in their daily, so I was just trying that out. The selections were Ferrobin, Onboard, Leroy Brown - all lost.
  7. 24/03/19/25/27/31/36/26/28/37 27/26/37/27/20/19/11/34/23/16 10/03/25/27/18/31/19/27/06/26
  8. Today's short shots at the principal meeting. Yarmouth (going forecast G watered light rain) 2.10 Foad, Luna Wish 2.40 Nil 3.10 El Misk, Three Comets 3.40 Sea Of Mystery, Kirtling 4.10 Imhotep 4.40 Invincible Larne, Global Hope 5.10 Merry Banter, Excellent George
  9. Short shots for anyone considering multiples. Brighton (going forecast GF with some G watering) 1.40 Pour La Victoire, Harrogate 2.20 Never In Red, Annie Quickstep 2.40 Ramatuelle, Barnsbrook 3.10 It's How We Roll, Brother in Arms 3.40 Juanito Chico (nap) 4.10 Joyful Dream, De Little Engine 4.40 Big Time Maybe, Threefeetfromgold
  10. First post for some time as there doesn't always seem to be much interaction, which is what I enjoy. However, I will try one today evaluated by my own form ratings converted to odds. Pontefract (going forecast G with some GS) 4.20 Market expected 08.15* nos 2, 3, 4 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1. 1. 34 = 15/2 fair (12/1 mkt) 2*. 70 = 9/2 (3/1) Speed Company 3 tips (DBF) 3*. 87 = 3/1 (7/2) My Reward 3 tips (C&D) T Easterby rates 16/D Allen 4*. 99 = 95/40 (2/1) Volcanic Sky 5 tips (D) 5. 36 = 25/1 (10/1) 6. 47 = 11/1 (11/1) 7. 27 = 250/1 (9/1) Comment: Volcanic Sky for me. ATR form verdict in comparison. VOLCANIC SKY built on two solid efforts at Kempton and Carlisle when gaining his first success of 2019 at Leicester a fortnight ago. Saeed bin Suroor's string are in fine form at present and a 4lb rise might not be enough to stop his progression. Speed Company has been running to a solid level over the past couple of months and is respected, along with Archi's Affaire, who may have needed his first run of the year at York.
  11. Mondays are seldom the high point of the racing week and today is no different. My preference is to look for successful yards sending out runners with some recent form - any rated 20+ are usually OK. Chepstow 2.30 Dilmun Destiny 23 (M Stoute) 3.00 Soft Cover 22 (W Haggas) Windsor 6.40 Revolutionise 22 (R Varian) 7.40 Asian Angel 28 (M Johnston) 8.15 Albert Finney 25 (J Gosden)
  12. Quote Edit Post by voodoow on a few seconds ago There are several VDW 'key' races around the cards to day IMO, but I have opted for the race that stands out. Newbury (going forecast G with some GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Sinjaari (6 pundits agree 16 oppose). 3.00 Market expected 09.35* nos 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16 indicating an open contest. Cloth no/fcast/class/consistency/RPR/D.Mail Formcast (column headings) 1*. XOXOO = 2* 2*. XXXXX = 5* Forest Of Dean 4 tips (11/2 mkt). J Gosden 30 (my rating)/F Dettori 3. OOOOO = 0* 5*. OOOOO = 0* 6. XOXOO = 2* 7*. XOXXO = 3* Solid Stone 6 tips (7/2). (M Stoute/RL Moore) 8. OOOOX = 1* 9*. XOXOO = 2* 10. OOOOO = 0* 11*. XXX00 = 3* Sinjaari 7 tips (7/2). W Haggas 27/O Murphy 12 OOOOO = 0* 13*. OOOXX = 2* 14 OOOXO = 1* 15. OOOXX = 2* 16*. OOOOX = 1* Comment: Forest Of Dean is the selection, although dutching the three makes sense. ATR form verdict in comparison. SOLID STONE seems a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver, having looked much better in victory in a Newmarket handicap 32 days ago than when narrowly seeing off the reopposing Forest Of Dean in novice stakes company at the back end of last season. A 6lb rise is fair and he looks sure to be thereabouts at the finish. The aforementioned Forest Of Dean impressed at Doncaster latest and he warrants plenty of respect off 8lb higher, while Headman (2* 9/1)could leave his conditions stakes effort over C&D well behind now switched to handicap company and faced with faster ground conditions. Sinjaari and Good Birthday (2 *2 tips 7/1) add further spice to the race.
  13. VDW 'key' races today at York are the 2.25, 3.00 & 5.05. As the first two are stakes and VDW preferred hcaps I considered the 5.05, although it's dropping down to class 4. Not only that with just 12lb to allot weight for the hcap and RPR rating the field within 3lb it looks tight on paper IMO. I compiled a chart (just a pen-and-paper man still ) with stars for nos 1 - 5 = 4*, 4*, 4*, 5*, 4* and at that stage abandoned the assessment.Loath to give up I compiled a modified Fineform instead although off topic on this thread.York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP spotlight Richard Austen selects Summer Moon (3 pundits agree 10 oppose)5.05 Market expected 09.15* nos 1, 2, 3, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.1*. 92 = 5/1 fair odds (4/1 mkt) Skymax 3 tips. Off track 205 days?2*. 86 = 11/2 (9/4) Laafy 2 tips3*. 71 = 8/1 (13/2) Fraser Island 2 tips. M Johnston 26 (my rating)/S de Sousa)4. 75 = 15/2 (12/1) (M Stoute/RL Moore)5*. 90 = 5/1 (7/2) Summer Moon 4 tips D Winner. M Johnston 29/PJ Macdonald6. 44 = 33/1 (12/1)7. 80 = 13/2 (16/1) (Rochester House D winner, M Johnston 25/F Norton)8. 34 = 400/1 (40/1)9. 51 = 18/1 (12/1)10. 54 = 16/1 (16/1)Comment: Laafy is forecast as a strong fav early but has not registered a good SF yet . I prefer Summer Moon before Fraser Island or dutching.ATR form verdict in comparison. Only two have won at the D.Mark Johnston has taken this handicap twice in the last four years and his trio of runners, headed by Summer Moon, who scored on handicap debut at Windsor 11 days ago, all warrant a fair amount of respect. Skymax has to enter calculations on his Newmarket success last October, but LAAFY might just have the most potential in the field. He built on his two juvenile outings to win at Leicester last month and the extra two furlongs appear in his favour.
  14. York (going forecast GF with some G watered) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Escobar (2 pundits agree 19 oppose)3.35 Market Expected 09.40* nos 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.Cloth no/fcast*/class*/consistency*/RPR*/D.Mail Formcast* (column headings)2*. 0X0XX = 3* Escobar 3 tips (12/1 mkt) D O'Meara 9 (my rating)/D Nolan5*. XX0X0 = 38 What's The Story (7/1) 8. XX0XX = 4* Love Dreams 3 tips (17/2) M Johnston 26/PJ Macdonald10*.0X0XX = 3* Firmament (14/1) D O'Meara 9/S Gray11. X0X0X = 3* Hayadh 1 tip (18/1)Comment: These are the best starred* which makes it look difficult for punters on paper as only Hayadh rates a star for consistency. D O'Meara has four runners. Love Dreams 4* each-way at current odds possibly?ATR form verdict in comparison.BERINGER (2* 3 tips 5/1 mkt(went up 3lb for a head success at Newmarket last month and the Lincoln third looks capable of further progression off a career-high mark. Hortzadar (1* 3 tips 15/2 mkt) has won both his starts for David O'Meara and is respected despite a hefty rise in the ratings along with stable companion Waarif (1 tips 2* 18/1 mkt), who wasn't disgraced at Thirsk latest and was second over track and trip last October. The unexposed hat-trick seeker Mutafani (1 tip 2* = best consistency, 338 days off track? 4/1 mkt)is another to note.
  15. Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05. As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot. As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.