PL tips how do people use these most effectively

[evertorial]

I've had a scout around the forums and it seems as though the tips 4/1+ seem to be the most profitable. However I have read that many followers have had accounts closed and bog removed as bookies very closely monitor those who take early prices. 

 

My key question is, has anyone found a sweetspot with these tips with regards to betting them on the exchanges. A big concern of mine is that BOG makes the majority of the profit for these tips. That would mean that these tips even matched at the prices advised wouldn't be profitable with the exchanges. Can anyone confirm if this is the case.

 

It would also be nice if the admins could release a results page with advised prices only and no bog involved so followers could get a better idea of what they could follow on the exchanges to make profit. 

 

 

[Alastair]

Might be interesting to see what results are like at SP as I have often thought that some of the competitions on here did show somewhat unrealistic levels of profitability - for example in today's £20 a day challenge last night I put up a horse that BEt365 were shown as laying at 5/2 - it is now 7/4 - and in practice I doubt if 5/2 was laid for more than pennies

[Bubbles180]

Hi glad you have joined the best site on the net, Would you be really worried if the prices were not exactly as they are advised here, some days I miss the price and take a slightly lower price, If i bet on Exchanges I usually put the advised price in as the price i want and if I dont get it I will take SP, most times theirs not a huge difference, but what I want to say is would it make a difference on the SP if you are backing winners, yes I can see that your profit would be lower compared to advised prices but thats part of being involved in a great site, have a good look and make your decision but I dont think you will go wrong backing some of these selections, also look at some of the members posts on their systems you may find some little nuggets around.

Good Luck to you and we are all here to help

[evertorial]

23 minutes ago, Bubbles180 said:

Hi glad you have joined the best site on the net, Would you be really worried if the prices were not exactly as they are advised here, some days I miss the price and take a slightly lower price, If i bet on Exchanges I usually put the advised price in as the price i want and if I dont get it I will take SP, most times theirs not a huge difference, but what I want to say is would it make a difference on the SP if you are backing winners, yes I can see that your profit would be lower compared to advised prices but thats part of being involved in a great site, have a good look and make your decision but I dont think you will go wrong backing some of these selections, also look at some of the members posts on their systems you may find some little nuggets around.

Good Luck to you and we are all here to help

The answer is yes. It does matter what price you take. 

For example, if best odds guaranteed makes on average 2 points a day over the course of a year then that would equate to £18000 a year profit from bog alone based on £25 stakes per bet. So if you then lose best odds guaranteed you then have a service that doesn't make a profit. 

So my question would be, how much of an impact does best of guaranteed have on the results of these tips. At a guess I would imagine that without bog it would be significantly less profitable or perhaps not profitable at all. Which is why I'm asking if any results have been looked at which don't include bog. 

This isn't me being criticial, I'm just trying to work out if any profit can be made on these tips without bog and therefore i will crack on using this service with the exchanges. 

[Bubbles180]

will look for you may take a day or 2 are you looking at all selections, Naps Selections or the 4/1+ (which is my system)

[Bubbles180]

@evertorial hi their

Looking at the NAP SELECTIONS put up each day Since 01/08/17 since records have been kept the difference between the advised/BOG odds and Betfair SP have been approx 0.60 pt in favour of Betfair SP so betting on the exchanges is better on the most part by my claculations around 76% of selections are higher on Betfair SP than BOG.

I back the NAPS both on BOG and Betfair and have just done some quick calcs based on my own returns.

Hope this helps, I would assume it would be the same on any selections backed from here.

For example today i backed

12.55    Donc    Slanelough    6.50 BOG

12.55    Donc    Slanelough    6.70 BFSP

 

[Sir Puntalot]

@BillyHills will confirm, but BOG plays a very small part last time we checked. Plenty of winners we have actually drift in the betting. It’s swings and roundabouts  

[Birchy]

1 hour ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Plenty of winners we have actually drift in the betting.

So BOG does come into play quite often?

I back tested all the results upto November the tips showed a loss at BSP and ISP. But that was backing all the tips to win only, including the EWs. My conclusion was that BOG is where the profits come from. Having said that, I'm still plodding on backing the tips on betfair at the published prices + commission despite being some £400 out of pocket to £2 stakes, in the hope that this rough patch will turn good soon.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Birchy

[Saint R]

You also have to factor in that Billy gives a selection for every race,eliminating possible losers is just as important as BOG. You have maiden races,nhf races where a lot of the horses have no form but a selection is given on the remaining horses with very little form to rate on. I always check the draw of all weather runners and also the weather conditions are an important factor at this time of year.Use your own judgment and experience,still look at the race form.

[Alastair]

1 hour ago, Birchy said:

So BOG does come into play quite often?

I back tested all the results upto November the tips showed a loss at BSP and ISP. But that was backing all the tips to win only, including the EWs. My conclusion was that BOG is where the profits come from. Having said that, I'm still plodding on backing the tips on betfair at the published prices + commission despite being some £400 out of pocket to £2 stakes, in the hope that this rough patch will turn good soon.

If you are £400 points down with £2 stakes that is 200 points loss and I think you would be best advised to call it a day on this as a way of betting - watch my tips on the £20 Daily Challenge instead !

[Sir Puntalot]

2 hours ago, Birchy said:

So BOG does come into play quite often?

I back tested all the results upto November the tips showed a loss at BSP and ISP. But that was backing all the tips to win only, including the EWs. My conclusion was that BOG is where the profits come from. Having said that, I'm still plodding on backing the tips on betfair at the published prices + commission despite being some £400 out of pocket to £2 stakes, in the hope that this rough patch will turn good soon.

Tips both drift and get backed in, BOG accounts for a small amount. However, go check the so called big boys and their records at prices that are impossible to achieve. I believe we have the best record out there considering the sample size. 

You also admitted your stats above didn't include NAPS, so you were effectively backing them incorrectly. Anyway, I'm a bit tired of repeating myself here. It doesn't get more transparent than us, and they're free - I'm not sure what else we can do, bar get a Russian stripper to come round to your house to service you, carrying a big crate of beer.  

[BillyHills]

2 hours ago, Birchy said:

So BOG does come into play quite often?

I back tested all the results upto November the tips showed a loss at BSP and ISP. But that was backing all the tips to win only, including the EWs. My conclusion was that BOG is where the profits come from. Having said that, I'm still plodding on backing the tips on betfair at the published prices + commission despite being some £400 out of pocket to £2 stakes, in the hope that this rough patch will turn good soon.

Birchy, why are you even bothering with the Tips??

Try picking your own selections, we had winners today at 20/1,13/2, 6/1, 6/1, 5/1 and plus a couple more at Kempton tonight yet all we here is moaners. We have answered every question and published the tips hours before the off and leave them up hours after they have ran. We also supply a download of the results.

Now guys, tell me who else does all of the above and then tell me the sites that quickly pull their tips off line once they get beat and others that rush to twitter to brag about a 4/6 NAP. Wheres the evidence of these results?

There are loads of threads on here about different ways to back them, some more successful than others. If you are a so called wizard with maths then work it out and stop asking stupid questions.

WE dont compare to SP because we don't recommend backing anything at SP, why would you, who does these days?

Hugh Taylor?? Tom Segal?? anyone else??

Also I cant help it if certain members are restricted withe their accounts in some ways, we can only publish the facts.

My last word on it, good luck

[donal]

yes please puntalot  with a bottle of pomerol

[donal]

thats with the russian stripper  great site great results well done to ye all

[Birchy]

39 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

You also admitted your stats above didn't include NAPS, so you were effectively backing them incorrectly. Anyway, I'm a bit tired of repeating myself here. It doesn't get more transparent than us, and they're free - I'm not sure what else we can do, bar get a Russian stripper to come round to your house to service you, carrying a big crate of beer.  

I back ALL of the tips, including the NAPS and the treble as 3 singles. I haven't tested the NAPS on their own or any other kind of filtering as I thought the tips were collectively profitable based on the results spreadsheet.

At the end of the day, it is our own choice how we use the tips. Win or lose. 

What time is the stripper coming? 

[Sir Puntalot]

6 minutes ago, Birchy said:

I back ALL of the tips, including the NAPS and the treble as 3 singles. I haven't tested the NAPS on their own or any other kind of filtering as I thought the tips were collectively profitable based on the results spreadsheet.

At the end of the day, it is our own choice how we use the tips. Win or lose. 

What time is the stripper coming? 

The tips are collectively profitable - is the spreadsheet in Arabic or something?  

Stripper cancelled until you start talking sense.  

[Birchy]

21 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Birchy, why are you even bothering with the Tips??

Because of the headlines like "December Racing Tips: 5 Accas Landed! 33/1 Winner, 56% NAPS Strike Rate, Total Racing Tips Profits now at £22,865.90!"

Does that not speak for itself? I have no reason to disbelieve it.

[Birchy]

2 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

The tips are collectively profitable - is the spreadsheet in Arabic or something?  

Stripper cancelled until you start talking sense.  

Exactly. What am I doing wrong as I'm not seeing the same profits.

[Sir Puntalot]

1 hour ago, Birchy said:

Exactly. What am I doing wrong as I'm not seeing the same profits.

All jokes aside and we've had this chat already, you came in at the worst moment, simple as that. December and January are statistically awful months to pick winners though, the weather sees to that.

However, it has turned around since mid January with plenty of winners, including a great day today, so hopefully you were on.  Otherwise, I dunno, specsavers? Maybe you're following myracing's tips  

[foxinexile]

1 hour ago, Birchy said:

Exactly. What am I doing wrong as I'm not seeing the same profits.

I've been following the tips for some time now (started off with the Win selections only but now back all selections including E/W) and my only recommendation is to really keep your discipline and don't assume that you're doing anything "wrong". As with all systems/selections/tips etc, there will always be downturns (no system can ever be 100 percent profitable every day!) but if you keep with it, you will see the rewards.

The only input I can give is that I bet 0.5 percent of my bank per selection (0.25 percent for each part of the E/W tips), so this gives me a potential losing run of 200 bets (which has obviously never happened!) and protects my bank, which is the most important aspect of all. I use ratchet staking, so as my bank increases so do my stakes, but they never decrease and this has served me pretty well.

You mention that you use Betfair, have you considered using a BOG bookmakers if you can? I use Coral for all selections and whilst a couple might not match the posted prices, they are all usually pretty close, sometimes actually bigger odds than posted. And on the occasions that BOG does come into play (as seen today with Remiluc in the 16:10 Cheltenham, drifting from 10/1 to 20/1, happy days!) you'll get the benefits of this. As far as I'm aware I don't think Coral close accounts, though more experienced bettors will be able to correct me if I'm wrong? I might just not have got to that level of staking with them yet! But as Sir Puntalot says, BOG doesn't masssively increase profit, and I can vouch for that having followed for the best part of a year!

I genuinely think these are the best tips that are available, especially being that they're free. Keep with them, keep the discipline and I'm sure in a couple of months you'll be in a much better position. Just keep in mind that Rome wasn't built in a day and all that!   

[Pirate53]

My Coral account not closed but the most I can get on is 0.00!

[corky]

as mentioned a good day today, plz take the good, when its here, we will have some bad days, but historically we are ahead, quote it all or not at all. thank you