harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 A Madrid v Sevilla: Griezmann to score at 13/10 with 888 (2.26) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Bath v Newcastle: Van der Merwe to score a try at 5/2 (3.4) and Harris to score a try at 15/2 (7.68) Harlequins v Leicester: Marchant to score a try at 4/1 (4.43) All with PP/BF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Clermont v Racing 92: Raka to score a try at 8/11 with PP (1.65) Missed 10/11 and 7/2 for the brace. Anytime still backable but 2 or more a swerve now at 11/4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Scarlets v Edinburgh: McNicholl to score a try at 21/20 with 365 (2.04) Only just makes the cut in terms of price but is odds on across the board elsewhere. A couple of potential picks in the game at Connacht, pending full prices to go at. Other than that, I'm probably done for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Last action of the day for me. Girona v Barcelona: Stuani to score at 6/1 with Marathonbet (5.06) and Messi to score 2 or more at 23/10 with PP (3.1) Bit of a gamble on team news as I'm busy later but both should start. I'm also on Messi hat trick at 15/2 and score both halves at 9/2 but they aren't official selections. I can't check at the moment but suspect they'll just fall outside the criteria for this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 A profitable day yesterday if I'm not mistaken, confirmation to follow. A bit of early action in France to get today underway. Lyon v Castres: Palisson to score at 9/5 (2.69) and Regard to score at 16/5 (4.11) both with PP/BF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 4 winners (Griezmann, Van der Merwe, Harris and Raka) and a non-runner (Stuani) yesterday. Total prior to today's selections, 74 winners from 189 bets (39.15%), +60.03 points with an ROI of 32.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Sheffield W v Sheffield U: Clarke to score at 7/2 with PP (4.37) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Hannover v Koln: Cordoba to score at 16/5 with 888 (3.86) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 London Irish v Northampton: Horne to score a try at 13/5 with PP (3.22) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Exeter v Wasps: Slade to score a try at 17/4* with Lads (4.82), Daly to score a try at 9/2 with Skybet (5.3), Simmonds to score a try at 9/4 (2.5), 2 or more at 18/1 (10.67) and a hat trick at 125/1 (65.43) *Slade fine at the "unboosted" 4/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Getafe v Villareal: Molina to score at 13/5 with Sportingbet (3.31) That may well be it for the afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 4 winners today, Palisson, Clarke, Horne and Molina. 78 winners from 198 bets (39.39%), +63.53 points with an ROI of 32.09% vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 On a nice roll Harry ..keep it going . harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Cheers. Been doing this long enough to be healthily sceptical about whether a 30% ROI is sustainable over the long term but nice to be in this position in the first place. Been doing a bit of analysis ahead of potentially making a few tweaks for the start of a new month. By sport, Rugby Union has accounted for 96 of the 198 bets (48.48%) and has contributed 70.51% of the profit (44.8 points) with an ROI of 46.67%. Next up is soccer with 69 bets (34.85%) and 26.86% of the profit (17.06 points) with an ROI of 24.73%. That leaves Rugby League with 33 bets (16.67%) and 2.64% of the profit (1.68 points) with an ROI of 5.08%. There were 55 bets in August and the first month finished with a profit of 5.08 points and an ROI of 9.24% That means there have been 143 bets in September so far, showing a profit of 58.45 points and an ROI of 40.87%. It's fair to say I'm slightly surprised at how much the volume has ramped up this month but I guess this has gradually become the main focus of my betting time with less time devoted to other markets. I've got 3 tweaks in mind for October, which I'll probably end up going with 2 of. Details to follow. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 The first change from next month onwards is that the selections will include NFL Touchdown scorers. It had struck me that there was no reason why the approach wouldn't work for that sport, I've given it a brief trial run and it's gone ok. I might as well include the selections in here and see how it develops. The games tend to fall when there's no footy or rugby to be looking at and it will probably only be possible to do the live TV games so I'll probably just be looking at 4 or 5 games per week. SPIN only seem to price up 4 players per team (SX a few more) so there will only be 8 players per game to consider. All in all, it's not too much extra time or effort so it's been a fairly easy decision to make. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Great results as usual. Hope your new tweaks go well too. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 The second change relates to the criteria for which players I consider in the first place. Currently, the strict rule is that I only look at players who have been named as "hotshots" by the spread firms. The advantage of this is that it cuts the field down to a manageable size and should be focused on the most likely goalscorers. The disadvantage is that I sometime have to overlook players with a decent chance of scoring who may be available at an attractive price. The obvious answer is to consider players named as hotshots and any with a goal/try minutes quote of "x" or more. "X" being a value that strikes a balance between not looking at too many additional players but not ignoring those with decent prospects of scoring. I've got a number in mind but will review it as the remainder of September unfolds and make a decision in time for the start of October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 A couple of bets (still "unofficial" for now) posted in the NFL thread, if of interest to anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Union Berlin v Kaiserslautern: Polter to score at 15/8 (2.62) and Hedlund to score at 11/4 (3.65), both with 365 A little surprised to be putting bets up on this game with only one firm (if you discount "Sun bets") offering prices but, with a bit of help from late drifts from 7/4 and 5/2, these 2 tick all the boxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Goal for Polter (a hat trick in fact) so 1 out of 2 for a small profit. 79 winners from 200 bets (39.5%), +64.41 points with an ROI of 32.2% 8 Champions League games tomorrow so it could be a busy hour in the run up to kick off! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Besiktas v RB Leipzig: Talisca to score at 4/1 with 888 (4.69) vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Napoli v Feyenoord: Mertens to score at 4/7 (1.43) and to score 2 or more at 11/4 (2.96) both with Fred, Boetius to score at 8/1 with 888 (7.65) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Cardiff v Leeds: Zohore to score at 15/8 with PP (2.7) Spartak Moscow v Liverpool: Samedov to score at 7.6 (6.76), 6/1 with 888 ok. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 At half time, 2 out of 4 and in profit already! Congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Not my tipple but perhaps fitting that one of the players has a name that sounds like a brand of whiskey! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Goals for Talisca, Mertens and Zohore (unfortunately the latter managed a brace rather than Mertens). 82 winners from 205 bets (40%), +68.85 points with an ROI of 33.59% vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Harry,,,,,just spotted this thread, have you thought of goal scorer minutes on spin ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2017 Author Share Posted September 27, 2017 Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona: Doumbia to score at 4/1 with Fred (4.69) and Messi to score at 16/25 with 888 (1.62) No value on the "multi goal" prices for Messi tonight but the anytime, short as it is, just makes it over the line. Honourable mention for the same firms 11/2 scores both halves which is the closest to a qualifying bet and is ok for an interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2017 Author Share Posted September 27, 2017 CSKA Moscow v Man U: Martial to score at 13/5 with PP (3.47) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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