Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

[harry_rag]

Another day another mistake! A goal last night for Viera and 2 tonight for Messi would have made for the following update.

43 winners from 116 bets (37.07%), +19.95 points with an ROI of 17.2%

BUT tonight's bets on Messi and Suarez didn't really qualify for the system. The spreadsheet I use opened up at the rugby table rather than the football one so I used the wrong criteria to make the selections. The prices were ok but shouldn't have made it in to here. As I had the good fortune to land the bets on Messi I feel it's right not to include tonight's bets in the results therefore, based on selections that meet the criteria for the thread, the results to date are as follows.

41 winners from 113 bets (36.28%), +15.84 points with an ROI of 14.02%

I can only apologise but trust you'll appreciate it would have been easier to say nothing and post what would have been slightly inflated results. As my main intention is to track how the system picks perform it feels like the right thing to do.

[harry_rag]

Going early (for footy) and slightly off-piste with one of these selections, but value is value (hopefully). 

Real Madrid v APOEL: Ronaldo to score 2 or more at 7/5 (2.33) and to score in both halves at 13/4 (3.78)

Not often I'd back a brace at such a short price and not often I'd look at the score in both halves market but it's not often a player's goal minutes quote is as high as 73 to 78. The latter bet offers the far bigger edge but the first still clearly qualifies for this system (honest, this is a carefully vetted, mistake free post) and a combination of the 2 is a decent proposition.

[harry_rag]

So much for mistake free, forgot to name the bookie! It's with 888 for both bets.

[harry_rag]

RB Leipzig v Monaco: Werner to score at 6/4 with Betfred (2.33)

[harry_rag]

Maribor v Spartak Moscow: Tavares to score at 3/1 with Betfred (3.65)

[harry_rag]

Shakhtar Donetsk v Napoli: Milik to score at 2/1 (2.55) and to score 2 or more at 13/1 (11), both with PP

[harry_rag]

Liverpool v Sevilla: Ben Yedder to score at 3.75 on BF (3.5)

[harry_rag]

That was a busy hour, line-ups and markets coming through for 8 games at once! Let's see how it pans out.

The Ronaldo bets look even better value at the off as his player goal minutes price had soared into the 90s! Very rare that happens.

[harry_rag]

Both bets on Ronnie land and there were goals for Milik and Ben Yedder. Football is tantalisingly close to being in the black now, but is still showing a half point loss.

45 winners from 120 bets (37.5%), +22.11 points with an ROI of 18.42%

[Torque]

It's possible that football would be in the black if you were betting relative to perceived value. With flat stakes I think it takes longer to see if you're getting +EV as not all bets are created equal.

[harry_rag]

True. I've not been tracking that aspect, just posting the minimum suggested odds on here for info. I could see if a different staking approach relative to price would make a difference, e.g. level returns.

[Torque]

I'd say fixed return is a step up from flat stakes, as it should smooth out the variance in results given that price and therefore very generally probability is being taken into account.

[harry_rag]

Last minute!

Hull v Wakefield: Kelly to score a try at 6/5 and Jones-Bishop to score a try at 6/4 (2.42) both with Skybet

[harry_rag]

Kelly minimum odds would be 1.99.

[harry_rag]

In case the game goes ahead!

Arsenal v FC Koln: Giroud to score at evens with PP (1.95) and Cordoba to score at 4/1 with BF Sports (4.69)

[harry_rag]

Tomorrow's early Mitre 10 Cup action.

Southland v Auckland: Moala to score a try at 7/5 with PP (2.14)

Taranaki v Bay of Plenty: Halafihi to score a try at 3/1 with PP (3.06) and Parete to score a try at 9/2 with 365 (5.3)

[the_notorious]

Hi harry,

How do you calculate the percentage of a certain player scoring?

Also is there any relation between the chosen player scoring and the final result-over or under?

Cheers

 

[harry_rag]

Thanks for the interest, will reply when I get chance. Next 48 hours is a bit busy, starting with a frantic hour and a half or so! 

[harry_rag]

Worcester v Exeter: Adams to score a try at 5/1 with PP (4.43) and Simmonds to score a try at 12/5 with 365 (2.5)

[harry_rag]

Sale v London Irish: Solomona to score a try at evens (1.91) and James to score a try at 4/1 (4.11) both with BF Sports

[harry_rag]

Hull KR v Catalans: Moss to score a try at 33/20 (2.42) and Abdull to score a try at 3/1 (3.83), both with Lads

[harry_rag]

Small loss since last update, despite a goal for Cordoba last night and tries for Solomona and Simmonds tonight.

48 winners from 133 bets (36.09%), +19.51 points with an ROI of 14.67%

[harry_rag]

Australia v Argentina: Folau to score a try at 10/11 (1.95) and Boffelli to score a try at 4/1 (4.82), both with Hills

[harry_rag]

On 15/09/2017 at 9:34 AM, the_notorious said:

Hi harry,

How do you calculate the percentage of a certain player scoring?

Also is there any relation between the chosen player scoring and the final result-over or under?

Cheers

 

I'll take the second point first as I haven't got a clue! It's not something I pay any heed to, let alone track. I suppose a team becomes more likely to win if a named player scores but I'm not sure what use that is when I often back players on both teams. I also imagine that, where I back 2 players in the same game overs are likely when they both score! That said, I've seen some high scoring point or goal fests where none of my selections have landed!

As to the first point, as with several markets, you can use the spread prices to derive indicative fixed odds prices, in this case player goal minutes to anytime odds. How I do this is, I suppose, my "secret recipe" but it's fairly rough and ready and not very sophisticated. You could use this to compare the two prices and decide which one offers best value before placing a bet, or use the midpoint of the spreads as a guide to the "true" fixed odds price and look for potential value anytime bets. For this system, I use the lowest sell price quoted by either firm and convert that to odds (those quoted in brackets) that represent the biggest price that player should be. Anything "outside" that, regardless of the margin, qualifies as a bet.

In theory, you could apply the same approach to other markets, e.g. total goals, corners or bookings points but I'm not convinced that would yield enough selections to make it worthwhile and I don't have the time to try, currently at least.

[harry_rag]

Kings v Leinster: Carbery to score a try at 9/4 (3.22), Adam Byrne to score a try at 6/4 (2.34) and Rory O'Loughlin to score a try at 4.31/1* (3.06) all with Hills

*Price boost but 4/1 fine. Sorry about how close to kick off this is, would have been earlier if Oddschecker wasn't all over the place! All 3 supposedly bigger elsewhere but not when you look!

[harry_rag]

Toulouse v Stade Francais: Kolbe to score a try at 8/5 (2.2) and Dupont to score a try at 13/5 (2.69) both with PP

[harry_rag]

Leicester v Gloucester: Woodward to score a try at 6/1 and Scott to score a try at 13/2, both with PP and both (6.66)

That's it for now.

[harry_rag]

Getafe v Barcelona: Messi to score 2 or more at 5/2 with 888 (3.17)

[harry_rag]

5 out of 10 so far today so maybe I should leave it there! Tries for Folau, Carbery, O'Loughlin, Kolbe and Dupont.

There may be some evening action to follow, I'm just going to have a look at what's on offer.

[harry_rag]

Cardiff v Glasgow: Cuthbert to score a try at 7/2 (3.83), James to score a try at 7/2 (3.83), Halaholo to score a try at 11/2 (5.89) and Jackson to score a try at 6/1 (6.66), all with the PP/BFS combo except the last one which is Skybet.