harry_rag Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Time for an update ahead of a bit of a break. 165 winners from 544 bets (30.33%), +70.57% points with an ROI of 12.97% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Slight correction to the above post, there were actually 164 winners so the strike rate was 30.15%. I can confirm this thread is closed but there'll be a brief "end of term" report to follow shortly in terms of which sports scored A+ and which earned a "must try harder". I'm still debating if/when/how to go again with this but, if I do, it will be in a new thread for this year's bets. The new Superleague season starting on 1st of February is certainly an interesting opportunity. I'm considering a slightly different approach to how I assess the minimum acceptable odds and also reviewing my approach to recording the bets, In the meantime I'd welcome any feedback from anyone who followed the thread at all, e.g. what worked, what could have been better, which sports were of most interest and what sort of deadline I should set for posting (was 5 minutes too close to kick of to be of any use or interest?). vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I've been looking in from time to time - haven't been following though. If I had been then posting 5 minutes before a football match starts would make it harder to get on, but I appreciate that it's difficult to put up picks for lots of matches if you aren't doing it until very close to kick-off given that you're waiting on team news. As far as advice on how to take this forward goes, if you aren't already then I'd suggest focusing on hotshot players only. Not only would doing this drastically reduce the amount of time spent researching matches, it should also help to smooth out the variance that inevitably comes with higher prices as the hotshot players should be more regular scorers. I'd also consider dropping two and three goal bets - you get the occasional win obviously but in the long run is it worth it. I'm not sure. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 All that said though, it's not as though you've been doing too badly as it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 Thanks for that, some food for thought re criteria, e.g. just the hotshots, minimum price criteria, top 4 players based on price (which isn't always the hotshots). I'll also have a look at how the 2 or more etc. bets performed compared to the straight anytime bets. The bottom line is it became too much like hard work to try and post every bet I was placing. For that reason, if I do post, I'm inclined just to post those bets which meet some predetermined criteria. I'll do a bit more analysis and make my mind up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I can't help in anything but this was a great thread and sadly closing. It was doing pretty well. Actually, did the thread seem to go better before you changed how you decided to choose which player to bet on? Sorry, I can't seem to find that post. Good luck with your other threads. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 The plan is to go again with a new thread starting 1st Feb, criteria to be confirmed when I've resolved the last few details. I won't go into chapter and verse but, based on strike rate and ROI, rugby league was the most profitable sport, albeit based on a smaller sample than football and Union. The latter 2 had very similar figures for all metrics. American Football results were very poor but based on a very small sample, as the season's all but over I can forget about that sport for the time being. "2 or more" bets were profitable on both codes of rugby but not on football. I'll be taking that at face value and continuing with them for the oval ball sports but not the spherical one! Makes sense as the anytime price is likely to be prohibitively short more often in RU and RL than it is in football. Will aim to record 500 bets with at least 100 from each of the 3 sports and see what the results look like. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 hours ago, harry_rag said: The plan is to go again with a new thread starting 1st Feb, criteria to be confirmed when I've resolved the last few details. I won't go into chapter and verse but, based on strike rate and ROI, rugby league was the most profitable sport, albeit based on a smaller sample than football and Union. The latter 2 had very similar figures for all metrics. American Football results were very poor but based on a very small sample, as the season's all but over I can forget about that sport for the time being. "2 or more" bets were profitable on both codes of rugby but not on football. I'll be taking that at face value and continuing with them for the oval ball sports but not the spherical one! Makes sense as the anytime price is likely to be prohibitively short more often in RU and RL than it is in football. Will aim to record 500 bets with at least 100 from each of the 3 sports and see what the results look like. Great to hear. Good luck. It will go well. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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