Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

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Those 3 scored 0, 1 and 2 tries respectively so a decent start to the day. About to embark on a look at the later action.

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Agen v Racing 92: Imhoff to score a try at 15/8 (2.5) and Chavancy to score a try at 4/1 (4.82), both with BF Sports

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Dragons/Leinster: Amos to score a try at 5/2 with Boyles (2.92), Byrne to score a try at 6/4 with PP (2.4) and O'Loughlin to score a try at 7/2 with PP (3.4)

The great outdoors is calling, might just look at one more game. (There have been 2 or 3 that yielded no bets.)

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Last one for now.

Stade Francais v La Rochelle: Nayacalevu to score a try at 16/5 with PP (3.06)

[twinny]

going along very nicely harry,great work 

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Cheers, though my best work today was completed before I got up! 

6 straight losers since then but still in front for the day. Will see if there's any late action to be had.

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Connacht v Glasgow: Healy to score a try at 3/1 (3.83) and Kelleher to score a try at 7/2 (4.11) both with PP

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Spain v Italy: Asensio to score at 3/1 with Betfred (3.03) and Silva to score at 16/5 with PP (3.47)

I'm guessing that Spain are lining up with an unexpected formation, up front at least!

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A late flurry on the 8:00 SL game.

London v Warrington: Dixon to score a try at 2/1 with Hills (2.8), Sammut to score a try at 5/2 (2.92), Lineham to score a try at 4/5 (1.47) and 2 or more at 3/1 (3.16), Atkins to score a try at 10/11 (1.76) and 2 or more at 5/1 (4.89) all with Betfred unless stated.

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Tries for Dixon, Sammut and Lineham yesterday (unfortunately it was the first 2 who score more than a single try) make yesterday very much a loser sandwich of a day, with all the wins coming in the first and last games of the day.

32 winners from 82 bets (39.02%), +15.43 points with an ROI of 18.82%

Let's see if today has anything to offer.

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Portsmouth v Rotherham: Moore to score at 7/2 with Betfed (3.86)

Has four goals already this season including a hat trick. Looks a great price system or otherwise.

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No joy with today's selection.

32 winners from 83 bets (38.55%), +14.43 points with an ROI of 17.39%

Perhaps too early to be drawing conclusions about which sports are viable and which aren't but, for what it's worth, the breakdown looks like this. The 83 bets are as evenly split as could be (28 each for Union and League and 27 football) but the P&L certainly isn't. Union is +16.57 points, League +4.56 and football -5.72

The idea has also crossed my mind that this approach could be readily applied to NFL, though the thread title is a little limiting in that respect! 

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Scotland v Malta: Armstrong to score at 15/8 with PP (2.81) and Griffiths to score 2 or more at 13/4 with 888 (3.88)

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One more.

England/Slovakia: Kane to score 2 or more at 11/2 with 888 (6.14)

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Done most of tomorrow's oval ball action which has yielded the following selections.

Edinburgh v Dragons: Fruean to score a try at 7/2 with PP or BF Sports (3.83)

Leinster v Cardiff: Conan to score a try at 2/1* with Hills (2.92) and R Kearney to score a try at 4/1 with Skybet (4.82)

Sale v Newcastle: Solomona to score a try at 6/5 with Hills (1.99) and McGuigan to score a try at 2/1 with PP/BF (2.92)

* I had to use my price boost to get the 2/1 with Hills. At the 15/8 otherwise available it would just fall short so up to you whether to take it if you haven't got a boost to use.(That or try your luck on the exchange.)

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No joy with the footy but a Fruean try means tonight's bets almost broke even. One in each of tomorrow's Rugby Championship games.

New Zealand v Argentina: Williams to score a try at 5/2 with Lads (3.4)

Australia v South Africa: Folau to score a try at 17/10 with PP (2.69)

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Bath v Saracens: Rokoduguni to score a try at 10/3 with BF Sports (3.6) and Earle to score a try at 3/1 with 365 (3.83)

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Glasgow v Ospreys: Giles to score a try at 15/8 (2.8), Allen to score a try at 6/1 (5.89), Fonotia to score a try at 13/2 (6.66) and Evans to score a try at 15/2 (6.66) all with Skybet

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Finally, for now;

Northampton/Leicester: North to score a try at 15/8 (2.8) and May to score a try at 6/4 (2.4) both with PP

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The last game is still in play; tries for Rokoduguni and Evans in the earlier games.

Connacht v Kings: Healy to score a try at 8/11 (1.67) and Leader to score a try at 1.18/1* (2.15) both with Hills

*With priceboost from 11/10, which falls just short of qualifying. He is, however, odds on everywhere else so doesn't look bad even without the boost.

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May scored for Leicester. Still persevering with the round ball game!

Barcelona/Espanyol: Messi to score 2 or more at 2/1 with 888 (2.58), Suarez to score at 3/5* with Lads (1.55) and to score 2 or more at 3/1 with 888 (3.58)

*Using price boost. 4/7 still ok.

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New York City v Portland: Harrison to score at 47/20 with 888 (316)

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Wins on May, Leader, Messi (brace) and Suarez (anytime) to go with Rokoduguni and Evans since the last update.

39 winners from 107 bets (36.45%), +17.04 points with an ROI of 15.93%

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Worcester v Wasps: Robson to score a try at 2.47/1* with Hills (2.4)

* Used priceboost. Available at 11/8 which fall just short of minimum odds but might still appeal as he's the sole tip in the RP preview of this game. If you can't apply the same boost you could see what you can get on the exchanges or settle for the 11/8 which is by no means a bad bet.

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3 bets on a player who the spread firms continue to rate far more highly than their fixed odds counterparts. 

Toulon v Toulouse: Ashton to score a try at evens (1.7), 2 or more at 11/2 (4.51) and a hat trick at 25/1 (17) all with 365

I wouldn't expect to put up many selections at double figure prices but then I wouldn't expect to find many offering such a big perceived edge. It's a 1 point selection for the purpose of the thread but, in "real life", I wouldn't be backing those 3 selections to the same stakes.

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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Worcester v Wasps: Robson to score a try at 2.47/1* with Hills (2.4)

* Used priceboost. Available at 11/8 which fall just short of minimum odds but might still appeal as he's the sole tip in the RP preview of this game.

I do hope Robson scores now, especially if anyone backed him (in which case, I apologise). I actually backed Watson but, for some reason, typed Robson,who would have been a much bigger price. I've double checked I didn't back the wrong player as well and, to my relief, the bet was on Watson and is already settled. 

[harry_rag]

I'd have been better not bothering today! No joy this time with Ashton but no complaints as I know that clear value won't always translate into a profit. Having a day off would have at least spared me the Robson/Watson cock-up!

So, to be clear, I backed Watson but typed Robson by mistake. Watson scored but Robson didn't. I also messed up with the price which should either have been shown as just 2.47 or as 1.47/1 (which is how Hills offered the priceboost to the original 11/8). Here's the link to the RP preview which I referred to, tipping Watson at 7/5 with PP (no longer available when I placed my bet). I will happily furnish a screenshot of the settled winning bet should anyone wish to see it.

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/watson-s-pace-set-to-show-for-wasps-at-worcester/299765

So. two updates, one based on a losing bet on Robson and one based on the actual winning bet on Watson.

39 winners from 111 bets (35.14%), +13.04 points with an ROI of 11.75%

40 winners from 111 bets (36.04%), +15.51 points with an ROI of 13.98%

Going forward I will be updating the latter total as what I'm keeping a record of is the bets I've placed. Obviously, the posted bets total would continue to lag behind by 2.47. I'll try and avoid any further such transgressions. 

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Malaga v Las Palmas: Borja Baston to score at 8/5 (2.58) and Viera to score at 19/5 (4.11), both with 888

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Barcelona v Juventus: Suarez to score at 2.32 on BF (2.15)

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Same game, Messi to score at 5/6* with Lads (1.76) and to score 2 or more at 5.5 on BF (4.89)

*Boosted but ok at the standard 4/5