Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

[harry_rag]

I'm being a bit ambitious embarking on a second system but, as the other one only involves one bet a week, I'll risk it!

Been thinking about this for a while, going to give it a go with a 100 point bank staking 1 point per bet. I'll be backing all selections to at least a tenner.

This is a purely objective system with very simple criteria and involves bets that I can spot without doing anything different to my normal approach. I just want to see how they fare.

Will look to run for at least 100 bets. Selections will be posted as early as possible but as late as 5 minutes before kick off (being dependent on confirmed line ups before bets can be identified).

Bets 1 and 2 are in the Super Rugby final, Lions v Crusaders.

Smith to score a try at 5/2 (VC or PP) Indicative price is 2.92 and should be no more than 3.22

Kriel to score a try at 3/1 (Hills or PP) 3.22 to 3.4

[harry_rag]

Bet 3 is in the Titans v Broncos NRL game.

Elgey to score a try at 3/1 (888) 3.4 to 3.6

 

[harry_rag]

2 selections in the 12:30 kick offs, Celtic v Hearts and Sutton U v Leyton O.

Sinclair to score at 6/5 with Hills or PP (2.16)

Cadogan to score at 8 on BF (13/2 with Fred is acceptable) (6.07)

Will post in the format from now on, figure on the end is the maximum I could make the selections based on the inputs I use, hence the thread title being "outside chance", i,e, I'm backing any selection priced outside the range.

[harry_rag]

Not exactly off to a flyer with just a Sinclair goal from the 5 bets, so 2.8 points down so far.

One less winner would have made it a wipeout, one more winner a small profit. Let's take a glass half full view and hope things improve over time.

[Torque]

Probably need more than a hundred bets to see if this is working given the prices. As always best of luck.

[harry_rag]

Cheers. 100 bets was more a minimum intention of how long to run it. That said, as this falls out of what I do all the time anyway I think 100 bets will give me a reasonable idea of its value. Essentially, these are bets where the indication of possible value is toward the maximum end of the scale. 

There have been no qualifying selections since Saturday which suggests it may take a while to reach 100 bets. There have been plenty of actual bets that looked decent and where the player stats have persuaded me to pull the trigger but none that have met the criteria for this thread.

Hopefully we'll see some action now the weekend's approaching.

[harry_rag]

You wait a few days for a bet then 3 come along at once, all in the same game and for the same team! For Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights in tomorrow morning's NRL game:

Radrada to score a try at 1/2 with 365 (1.47)

Auva'a to score a try at 9/10 with 365 (1.83)

Jennings to score a try at 5/4 with PP (2.09)

Short for my taste but I'm going along for the ride with the system picks. To put this into context, these are the 3 main players in the hotshots named by the spread firms and they're priced as if they should weigh in with at least 3 tries between them. 

[twinny]

just seen this,good luck harry

[harry_rag]

Cheers, update to follow but I believe it was just 1 out of 3 this morning. Close to the 5 minute deadline for this selection in Salford v Castleford:

Evalds to score a try at 13/8 with Skybet (2.4)

[harry_rag]

Getting tomorrow's early action sorted. Two in the NRL game between Dragons and Titans.

Nightingale at 10/11 to score with Skybet (1.87)

Elgey to score a try at 3/1 with 888 (3.6)

[harry_rag]

2 tries for Nightingale so another short priced winner. Not sure if these occasional winners should be taken as encouraging or seen as giving false hope but we persevere till at least 100 selections!

Next bet is Liverpool v Watford: Firminho to score at 9/5 with PP (2.7)

[harry_rag]

Maidenhead v Hartlepool: Tarpey to score at 2/1 with 365 (2.9)

[harry_rag]

Warrington v Catalans: Lineham to score a try at 8/11 with Skybet (1.65)

[harry_rag]

Leigh v Hull: Heffernan to score a try at 9/4 with Lads or Coral

[harry_rag]

Southampton v Swansea: Gabbiadini to score at 2.78 on BF (2.55)

8/5 available and acceptable.

[harry_rag]

5 winners from 11 bets since the last update but still slightly down.

6 winners from 16 bets (37.5%), -2.11 points with an ROI of -13.21%

[harry_rag]

A chance to edge into profit should this one oblige.

Barcelona v Real Madrid: Bale to score at 12/5 with Lads (3.03)

I took advantage of my daily price boost to enhance this from the standard 23/10 which is acceptable and also available elsewhere. You might also get that much or more on BF. The spread firms prefer Bale's prospects to Benzema's and he looks a fair bet at bigger than 2/1.

[harry_rag]

One in tomorrow's early NRL game. Short odds and and only just qualifies but it does tick the required boxes so it's in.

Eels v Titans: Radrada to score a try at 4/7 with Skybet (1.56)

[harry_rag]

I got a bit ahead of myself. A couple in tonight's Spanish Super Cup 2nd Leg

Real Madrid v Barcelona: Messi to score at 11/10 with Lads (1.95) and to score 2 or more at 6/1 with 888 (6.14)

Rare to see a suggestion of value in the 2 or more market but I always keep an eye out.

[harry_rag]

4 selections in the about to start Superleague encounter between Castleford and Wakefield.

Eden to score a try at 4/9 with Lads (1.4)

Gale to score a try at 13/8 with Fred (2.6)

Caton-Brown to score a try at 13/8 with Fred (2.34)

Jones-Bishop to score a try at 17/10 with PP (2.34)

[harry_rag]

4 winners from 5 bets today makes for a less unpleasant update. Shame Gale didn't manage to make it a full house.

10 winners from 24 bets (41.67%), -1.85 points with an ROI of -7.73%

[harry_rag]

Bayern Munich v Leverkusen: Volland to score at 19/4 with Sportingbet (4.69)

[harry_rag]

2 in the lunchtime games, taken a chance that both players start.

Lukaku to score for Man U at 10/11 with Hills (1.83)

Sinclair to score for Celtic at 5/4 with BF Sports (1.99)

[harry_rag]

A Bilbao v Getafe: Williams to score at 3.7, 12/5 PP acceptable (3.16)

[harry_rag]

Just beating the 5 minute deadline with this one!

Levante v Villareal: Bardhi to score at 6/1 with Sportingbet (6.76)

[harry_rag]

Malaga v Eibar: Baston to score at 11/5 with Sportingbet (3.16)

9/4 with Bwin if you have an account.

[harry_rag]

Not much joy since the last update, Lukaku the only winner and Sinclair void as he didn't feature.

11 winners from 29 bets (37.93%), -4.95 points with an ROI of -17.05%

[harry_rag]

Sevilla v Istanbul Basaksehir: Ben Yedder to score at evens with 888 (1.98)

[harry_rag]

Cheltenham v West Ham: Sakho to score at 13/10 with Lads and Ayew to score at 15/8 with Betfred

[harry_rag]

Apologies for being absolutely last minute there. Had done all the Champions League games with no joy then found those two right on the cusp. Sakho is ok at 5/4 if that's all you can get. Minimum odds are 2.07 and 2.4 respectively.