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Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

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I'm being a bit ambitious embarking on a second system but, as the other one only involves one bet a week, I'll risk it!

Been thinking about this for a while, going to give it a go with a 100 point bank staking 1 point per bet. I'll be backing all selections to at least a tenner.

This is a purely objective system with very simple criteria and involves bets that I can spot without doing anything different to my normal approach. I just want to see how they fare.

Will look to run for at least 100 bets. Selections will be posted as early as possible but as late as 5 minutes before kick off (being dependent on confirmed line ups before bets can be identified).

Bets 1 and 2 are in the Super Rugby final, Lions v Crusaders.

Smith to score a try at 5/2 (VC or PP) Indicative price is 2.92 and should be no more than 3.22

Kriel to score a try at 3/1 (Hills or PP) 3.22 to 3.4

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2 selections in the 12:30 kick offs, Celtic v Hearts and Sutton U v Leyton O.

Sinclair to score at 6/5 with Hills or PP (2.16)

Cadogan to score at 8 on BF (13/2 with Fred is acceptable) (6.07)

Will post in the format from now on, figure on the end is the maximum I could make the selections based on the inputs I use, hence the thread title being "outside chance", i,e, I'm backing any selection priced outside the range.

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Cheers. 100 bets was more a minimum intention of how long to run it. That said, as this falls out of what I do all the time anyway I think 100 bets will give me a reasonable idea of its value. Essentially, these are bets where the indication of possible value is toward the maximum end of the scale. 

There have been no qualifying selections since Saturday which suggests it may take a while to reach 100 bets. There have been plenty of actual bets that looked decent and where the player stats have persuaded me to pull the trigger but none that have met the criteria for this thread.

Hopefully we'll see some action now the weekend's approaching.

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You wait a few days for a bet then 3 come along at once, all in the same game and for the same team! For Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights in tomorrow morning's NRL game:

Radrada to score a try at 1/2 with 365 (1.47)

Auva'a to score a try at 9/10 with 365 (1.83)

Jennings to score a try at 5/4 with PP (2.09)

Short for my taste but I'm going along for the ride with the system picks. To put this into context, these are the 3 main players in the hotshots named by the spread firms and they're priced as if they should weigh in with at least 3 tries between them. 

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A chance to edge into profit should this one oblige.

Barcelona v Real Madrid: Bale to score at 12/5 with Lads (3.03)

I took advantage of my daily price boost to enhance this from the standard 23/10 which is acceptable and also available elsewhere. You might also get that much or more on BF. The spread firms prefer Bale's prospects to Benzema's and he looks a fair bet at bigger than 2/1.

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