Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

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Juventus v Olympiakos: Emenike to score at 9/1 with 888 (8.84)

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A Madrid v Chelsea: Griezmann to score at 3 on BF (2.81)

Just matched before the deadline, may be one last one to follow!

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For Juventus, Dybala at 1.69 on BF (1.6)

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3 hours ago, clarky101 said:

Harry,,,,,just spotted this thread, have you thought of goal scorer minutes on spin ?

I think of very little else mate, in my sleeping and waking hours! 

The spread prices are the inputs for this system, that I use to derive the minimum required price for a fixed odds bet. I do sometimes spot a decent looking spread bet but this system is focused on supposedly value fixed odds bets based on fairly strict criteria. I have ideas for different ways of applying this (identifying lays or spread bets in the scorer markets or value bets in other markets) but, for now, this pretty much takes up what time I have to spare for devoting to punting.

[harry_rag]

Goals for Martial and Griezmann enough for a modest profit on the night.

84 winners from 211 bets (39.81%), +69.35 points with an ROI of 32.87%

[vikki37]

Do you think that Lukaku in Manchester United is one scorer to take note of as he has scored in nearly every match? 

[harry_rag]

Wow, just had a look on Soccerbase and he's scored in 13 of his 14 appearances this season for club & country!

There are definitely those "obvious" goal scorers who, at first glance, appear to be "too short" but who bang in the goals so frequently that they are still profitable to follow. Ronaldo, Messi, Kane and Lukaku are probably in that group currently. If the anytime price is too short for your taste they can still be worth backing for brace, hat trick or both halves.

He may be worth blindly following for a while yet. Hopefully, when he does score it will have qualified as a bet for this thread!

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Sale v Gloucester: Solomona to score a try at 11/10 (1.83), to score 2 or more at 13/2 (5.32) and a hat trick at 28/1 (22.69) all with 365

Glasgow v Treviso: Grigg to score a try at 9/4 (2.69) and to score 2 or more at 12/1 (12.53) both with PP

Leinster v Edinburgh: O'Loughlin to score a try at 8/5 with PP (2.27)

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Newcastle v London Irish: Van der Merwe to score a try at 1.07/1* with Hills (1.76) and to score 2 or more at 5/1 (4.89) and a hat trick at 22/1 (18.9) both with 365

Goneva to score a try at 11/10 (1.99), to score 2 or more at 13/2 (6.45) and a hat trick at 28/1 (27.1) all with 365.

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Missed off *priceboost from evens which is acceptable.

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Hamilton v Rangers: Dorrans to score at 11/4 with PP )3.31)

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A goal for Dorrans and a brace for both Solomona and Goneva.

89 winners from 224 bets (39.73%), +79.3 points with an ROI of 35.4%

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Munster v Cardiff: Wooton to score a try at 0.97/1* with Hills (1.73), Sweetnam to score a try at 11/8 with Coral (2.2), Taute to score a try at 11/4 with PP (3.06), James to score a try at 7/2 with Coral (4.43) and Halahola to score a try at 13/2 with Coral (5.89)

*Price boost from 10/11 which is still acceptable.

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Leicester v Exeter: Woodburn to score a try at 15/8 with Hills (2.5) and Armand to score a try at 9/2 with PP (3.4) and to score 2 or more at 30/1 with the same firm (20.7)

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Zebre v Ulster: Bellini to score a try at 3/1 (3.4) and Minozzi to score a try at 9/2 (5.3) both with Coral

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South Africa v Australia: Hodge to score a try at 2.42/1* with Hills (3.22)

*Used today's price boost but still ok at the standard 9/4.

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Dragons v Kings: Amos to score a try at 5/6 with 365 (1.79), Meyer to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet (3.22), Pretorious to score a try at 12/5 with PP (3.22) and Benjamin to score a try at 5/2 with 365 (2.92)

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An early Top 14 game before I update yesterday's results.

Monpellier v Brive: Nadolo to score 2 or more tries at 7/4 (2.07) and to score a hat trick at 6/1 (4.47) both with 365

Shorter but still backable at PP prices (13/8 and 11/2). Anytime price is value too but I'm not backing at less than 1/2.

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Tries for Bellini and Amos were the only successes yesterday.

91 winners from 241 bets (37.76%), +70.14 points with an ROI of 29.35%

September ends on a losing note, let's see how October starts.

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Wasps v Bath: Joseph to score a try at 5/1 (5.89) and Clark to score a try at 11/2 (4.43) both with PP

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Benevento v Inter: Icardi to score a hat trick at 35/1 with 888 (21)

Unusual for the hat trick price to be apparent value when the anytime and brace aren't but that's the case here so in for a penny (or a point, to be precise)!

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Everton v Burnley: Calvert-Lewin to score at 4 on BF (3.65)

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Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich: Kalou to score at 5/1 with 365 (5.52)

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Villarreal v Eibar: Bakambu to score at 13/8 with PP (2.47)

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Here we go, dawn of a new era and all that, with the inaugural "official" NFL selection! 

Oakland/Denver: Roberts to score a TD at 3.77/1* with Hills (4.55)

*I've had to use my daily boost to get this over the line as a qualifying bet but there's reason to think it's not a bad bet at the standard 7/2. It's sub 2/1 in most places and while SX are only 8-11 about his TD minutes, SPIN go 13-16.

Mashing those two prices together would imply he's around a 9/4 shot. Hopefully it's SPIN who've assessed his chances correctly, making this a decent bet at the odds.

[harry_rag]

Nadolo landed both brace and hat trick and Kalou and Bakambu both scored.

95 winners from 248 bets (38.31%), +79.51 points with an ROI of 32.06%

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Washington/Kansas City: Hunt to score a TD at 0.78/1 with Hills (1.69)

Using price boost but ok at the standard 8/11 which is a bit of a standout price.

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Atlanta v Minnesota: Jones to score at 13/10 with Lads (1.98) and to score 2 or more at 7/1 with PP (6.4)

[vikki37]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Atlanta v Minnesota: Jones to score at 13/10 with Lads (1.98) and to score 2 or more at 7/1 with PP (6.4)

Your other 3 scorers that you posted on the MLS came in. I hope that you betted on them too. Thank you as well.

[harry_rag]

Cheers, a shame that the only losing bet was the one that qualified for this thread. Ramirez void unfortunately as he didn't start but still profitable overall.

Selections in this thread are "automatic" and don't involve any study of form etc. Sometimes I'll spot other bets that don't qualify but still look decent and take a closer look at them, especially spread bets.

With the International break I had more time to study form, stats and previews last night and thought I might as well post my bets in the relevant thread.