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Midweek > Feb 28th - Mar 2nd


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Just the single Ligue 1 match this week but a packed Coupe de France schedule for the last 16 phase. Marseille versus Monaco the stand out tie. Nice already eliminated from the competition. It will take some doing for PSG to be stopped given their current form.

@FCNA and @Pep004, you hinted that Nantes are decent bets this week? Stand by that opinion?

@DrBetter, @Tanktop, @Icongene, @sajtion, @KikoCy, and @hairline, will you guys be betting on the action during the week?

 

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Monaco in a Draw no bet @ 1.8 is tempting, or monaco win Over2.5 @3.4..

I'd back also Angers and Guigamp both in a draw no bet... But we'll have to wait to see who will play to make a definitive choice... i honestly think both Guigamp and Angers are aiming to perform in this cup, both side are on the rise, so not much turnover i hope.. we'll see

I don't trust Lille, Bordeaux or Auxerre... in regular time at least... don't ask me why.. it's the cup, just a feeling..

Lille are in a bad position in the league table, i don't think they'll invest a lot of motivation in this cup, knowing there is PSG and Monaco in the cup, don't forget that many teams will just skip/toss it out... It's a bit different than in the past when small team used to believe anything was possible... Now, they're resigned, they know PSG or Monaco are unbeatable and will win anyway. 

Smaller/semi-amateur team can try to reach a quarter or semi for the glory and do a huge game, we can see that in any cup in europe, that's why a normal ligue 1 side will put the B team... That's the case for Lille, trying to save themselves, to climb in the league, and IMO it's the case for Bordeaux which absolutely needs to fight for the 5th place in ligue 1, with Marseille and St Etienne, (first 4 rows already taken), i know Lorient is in distress right know, but still, i don't trust Bordeaux enough, and there's no value backing them in a draw no bet. Of course both Bordeaux and Lille can also crush 3-0 the opposition... they've what's needed.

On the other hand, Guigamp and Angers will try to do something, or at least IMO will play with more conviction and motivation... Guigamp is always fairly good in cup, angers rising again, they had lot of players in the African cup, they needed a time after their return, Petric is no longer the keeper, even though he was quite good, but it improved Angers obviously...imo both teams are going to do well until the end of the season. Both CA Bastia and Quevilly are no match for a decent ligue 1 team in a decent form...

Edited by DrBetter
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EFC Fréjus-St-Raphaël v AJ Auxerre
EFC Fréjus-St-Raphaël: Dumas (15/1 d), Diaw (12/1 m), Tibéri (14/1 m), Reynaud (19/1 m), Adhadhi (14/0 f)
AJ Auxerre: Boto (15/0 d), Montiel (6/0 m), Mathis (17/1 m, captain), Kilic (10/1 m), Vincent (10/1 f)

CA Bastia v Angers SCO
CA Bastia: Grimaldi (10/1 m, suspended)
Angers SCO: Traoré (22/1 d), Ketkeophomphone (4/0 f), Letellier (0/0 g), Andreu (16/0 d), Saihi (5/0 m), Capelle (25/2 m), Manceau (24/0 d), Cissokho (5/0 d, rest), Dickson (6/0 f), Pépé (24/3 f, doubtful)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Eheh Well Done Angers..! And as i said, Bordeaux Lorient was tricky.. short win for Bordeaux... 

Now i'm tempted to back a win for monaco, as for Guigamp.. And i have no idea what to back in PSG's game... clean sheet and over2.5? no idea yet... let's wait tomorrow..

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Nantes is going there with good atmosphere in the club, surely thinking about the win, but again.. On this pitch, you need to add factor of luck for 20% more than on other matches. Anyone who have seen any match on this pitch knows what I'm talking about. Monaco had big big problems to handle the ball, as they are used to play with lot of passes. I would take DNB on Nantes but somewhere above 1,80, so for now I am not taking it. I know that our team is much better, also much better prepared and of course with better atmosphere inside the locker room, but against "mortal-combat club" on the worst pitch in the league. Besides it's not raining right now, but wind is approx 30km/h and on open stadium as it is in Furiani it might cause some problems... 

Anyway... allez Nantes!

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16 minutes ago, rangers234 said:

 

 

27 minutes ago, rangers234 said:

Any idea if Monaco are playing their youngsters? No way should their price be as high as 2.70... 

http://www.asmonaco.com/en/article/dirar-raggi-and-mendy-included-9241.html

Looks like a strong squad has been announced. Appears Falcao not in the squad.

I've decided to leave Nantes and pick up Villareal tonight instead.

Edited by Icongene
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For Marseille it will be a really important match, as it looks that fight for Europe places will be tough for them in league... Both cup winners are going to Europe cups, which means that this window is still somehow open for them. I believe that Monaco is somehow focused on league this season, but Jardim can still put strong eleven even including young players Mbappe, N'Doram, Toure,...

p.s. I would love to see N'Doram in Nantes. His father Japhet, scored 87 goals for Nantes. :) But with great potential he has (defensive midfielder, not attacker/att. mf as father) I believe that Monaco is counting on him as replacement for Fabinho/Bakayoko.

Defensive line will be strong anyway.. regarding the list it can not be bad. Midfield could be with Dirar, N'Doram, Moutinho and Lemar/Silva, while in attack Irvin Cardona might get the chance. Another youngster, played some matches for youth national selections and scored 14 goals in 20 matches for B team. 

Edited by Pep004
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Yeah I'm just very untrustworthy with Nantes away form. At home would definitely back them.. I reckon a little surprise is in order for guingamp.. backed quevilly(not sure if spelt right!) at 4 to one. Guingamp are in terrible form while the home side is pretty good... plus interestingly enough last time they played each other quevilly won one nil. Worth a little punt 

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PSG to win by more than a goal @1.45  

Guigamp: Too tricky here as Quevilly is used to perform well in this cup.. I still think Guigamp is above, had a bad calendar these past weeks, but is anyway it's a decent good team who can play football... I like their coach, and i'm pretty sure it's not the kind of team to send the B team or to underplay... I'm not sure enough though to back them on a win..Angers which is in better form, also struggled yesterday against CA Bastia (2 leagues under), a short 1-0... Possibly same scenario here...

Nantes: As you guys, I don't trust Nantes, or let's say i trust Nantes, but not at Bastia.. It's not about the new coach or the level, just this shitty terrain... Tricky... Anything can happen there... It's not a "football friendly" stadium...

OM-Monaco: I see monaco scoring of course, Marseille too, but less sure of that one.. Without Gomis it's difficult for their attack to find space... They need individual perforance to score but don't have the players except Payet, and sometimes Thauvin.. (not the case for monaco overflowed with talents). 

Their goal against PSG was lucky as hell, they didn't had any chance otherwise, not a single one actually... So it's a possibility that Monaco won't concede much chances, use counter attack, and even with a youngster team, they'll be deadly.. Tough one, but I'd back either Monaco in a Draw no Bet @1.8, or a BTTS @ 1.5, even if i think Monaco will have no difficulties to win this match, i don't believe that Marseille will wake up after the 5-1 against Paris, you can wake up against decent team, bad ones, but not teams like Monaco...

Of course, with all those odds, i will place an acca with a win of Monacao, Roma, Villareal and Ath Madrid... Too tempting, too high.. 

Good luck guys!

Edited by DrBetter
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@andrewcalo I have one big mistake.. I am skipping cup matches like nothing. Not even taking a look of odds, nothing and if I am honest, I am skipping some values in this way, but on the other hand also skipping some big surprises... I was used to this "tactics" in Spanish league in last several seasons, and I keep it for French league this season as well. But I will try to keep my eye on matches... Hm.. If I'm not wrong, few seasons ago final of French cup was PSG - Evian.. I believe that people were betting against Evian from 1/16 to semifinals and of course loosing all the time. 

I didn't check any news about todays PSG, but well.. there are players who will miss the match: Absents :
BEN ARFA Hatem (soins), CALLEGARI Lorenzo (réserve), DESCAMPS Rémy (réserve), DI MARIA Angel (soins), GEORGEN Alec (réserve), RABIOT Adrien (soins), THIAGO MOTTA (soins), VERRATTI Marco (soins)...

19 players included in the squad are: Areola, Augustin, Aurier, Cavani, Draxler, Kimpembe, Krychowiak, Kurzawa, Lo Celso, Lucas, Marquinhos, Matuidi, Maxwell, Meunier, Nkunku, Pastore, Thiago Silva and Trapp. So even considering that Emery will let Thiago Silva, Cavani, Draxler, Kurzawa, Lucas and Matuidi on the bench, lineup should still be pretty strong. 

Let's say that totally "reserve lineup" regarding all the players would be something like that: Areola; Aurier/Meunier, Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Maxwell; Nkunku, Krychowiak, Guedes, Pastore, Lo Celso; Augustin. This is still pretty strong lineup and they could trash Niort with 5 goals difference if needed. Besides.. Niort is far from decent second league team, only 8 points above relegation Q position, so.. I think that this match is great opportunity for players like Guedes and Lo Celso, to show some potential.

p.s. It's not even needed, that Emery will rotate for 100%. It might happen, that some regulars will stay on the pitch as well.

 

edit: Emery said that cup is important for them. It's 100th anniversary of it and they want their signature on it. If some of players, who didn't participate that much this season will play today, it won't be because they need minutes, but because they will help the team to win the game. Now I'm pretty sure that we'll see mixed squad. They are playing against Nancy at home on Saturday, so I think that he will make a mix for both matches as they are going to Spain in midweek.

Edited by Pep004
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WTF Nantes.. conceding 2 goals by 10 men, 10min before the end of the game.. had a little draw no bet here on them... frustrating...

edit: ahah 2-2 at the mast minutes.. well done Canaries! Mighty ducks? ;)

ps: had it right for PSG and Guigamp..! ;)

Edited by DrBetter
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Interesting fact is also that they started with 5 defenders. :) And I think that your PSG will have big problems this season to beat Monaco. :) 

e: Watching Monaco.. I am just amazed, how full backs are arriving in the box to finish attack. One of basic rules of formation with 4 defenders is that if one full back is going higher, other one is not attacking, and he stays in defence. Many teams changed that with defensive midfielder holding back, and letting both wingbacks to go higher, but Monaco is not doing it in this way. Both central midfielders are going high, both fullbacks totally high, whole team is there to finish attack. Really amazing! 

Edited by Pep004
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2 hours ago, Pep004 said:

Even missed the penalty.. We should win that! Bastia scored impossible goals again.. They don't even know how, but they scored.. :( 

This is why I don't trust Nantes away from home.. at home they're a different story! Atleast you got the draw in the end! 

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Yes.. but problem here for me was with Bastia and their pitch and luck. Take a look of their goals today. It's amazing how lucky they are. I seriously hope that they will say goodbye to Ligue 1 this season. :)  Besides, their most prolific player is St. Maximine, who is loaned from Monaco, while no one will miss players like Cahuzac...

Edited by Pep004
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Lille anyone? Now that quarters have been drawn, they know that if they win, they'll go against Monaco... So ont even a perspective for a finale... I wonder if they'll be really 100% motivated... But the thing is with recent change in Lille anything is possible, and even Lille at 75% is enough to win... but 1.55... not that interesting unless combined with today liga's games...

By the way, i seriously think that something quite amazing will happen this year in Ligue 1, as Monaco and PSG are fighting for the title, it will be close and deadly till the end, they meet also in the League Cup finale, and they'll probably meet again in the finale of the french cup, and so they'll meet also in the french supercup this summer. But it's not over, if Moncao pass against City, I won't be surprised if they end up against PSG in quarter of the champions league... Would be horrible for french football, even if of course PSG would win this quarter no doubt! ;-)

One club could lose absolutely everything at the end of the season, could be difficult to handle afterwards, and it could be Monaco ;-) or maybe they'll share trophies together, one or 2 for each! Pretty intense fight to watch between these two french giants!

 

Edited by DrBetter
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