Midweek > Feb 7th & 8th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The last weekend of Ligue 1 action saw the most replies in a single thread in this section since 10th March, 2014 showing how strong Ligue 1 is now becoming with you guys. The action is thick and fast with a full selection of midweek games coming up.

@FCNA and @Pep004, it is a shame that Nantes lost to Nancy. I was hoping they could put a string of results together. Is there hope for a win against Bastia on Wednesday night?

@sajtion, you made some great points last week currently foreseeing that Monaco win and the tightness of the Bordeaux game. Unfortunately, Lille let you down.

@betcatalog, a rare missed bet with the Marseille game only having one goal but you did claw some back on the Monaco game. @Icongene, you were also a victim of that Marseille result having back them to win. Do you guys reckon they can rectify things at home to Guingamp on Wednesday evening?

@andrewcalo, you also got involved on the weekend with some wise betting. Fancy anything here?

@DrBetter, great to have you involved mate. Looking at any bets in this midweek action?

@mrclubbie, you also backed Toulouse to win. Easy money in the end. How will they follow it up with a tough trip to Lorient this Wednesday?

[vasilli07]

Marseille looks good to me. Rubbish away but very good at home.

Anyone watched Nice loss to Monaco? Were they really that bad?

[Pep004]

As I said on last time, Monaco is still one of the craziest teams when it comes to finishing. They're conversion rate was above 20% again. I have feeling that Belhanda will be back in first eleven, and regardless if he will be or not, I will take those odds for sure.

[Pep004]

Nice - St. Etienne

PICK: Nice AH -0,5 @2,07 SBO 6/10

Match between 3rd and 5th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Allianz Riviera in Nice and it will start on Wednesday at 19:00.

Nice lost derby de la cote d'Azur with 3-0, but they didn't play that bad. Specially not in first half. In second guys from Monaco have shown how accurate they are with conversion rate above 20% again. President of Nice said that they won't give up, and that they will response in shortest possible time. Belhanda came in in 64th minute and I think that this time he will be prepared for whole match. He is crucial player in Nice's final third, scoring, assisting and creating chances. 

St. Etienne is coming with boosted morale, but I see few chances for them in this match. They have still some problems with injuries, and for me they are far from dangerous team in attack. It's big focus on defence in this team and even though they won the derby with Lyon, I think that they will have tough 90 minutes. That goalkeeper Ruffier is one of they're best players tells a lot about this team. Well, he is still injured.

So we have two teams coming into match from derby, one losing it and one winning it, and I am going with first one. Crazy? Maybe for someone, but not for me. Nice have too much of quality. I am never talking about Balotelli, because in my opinion he is not much better than Plea, but both of team are more than solid attackers and St. Etienne don't have player like that. If I would compare all the positions, I think that Nice would be at least equal or better. Ball possession will be hugely on side of Nice which means more possibility to create chances and on the other hand also less possibilities for chances of St. Etienne. Maybe we'll see Favre going back to system with 4 defenders, but for me those odds are simply too high. It's true that teams are close on league table, but take a good look. There is same difference between Nice (3.) and St.Etienne (5.) than St. Etienne (5.) and Angers (18.)! So there is no reason to put those two teams in same class. St. Etienne will need a lots of luck to take something from this match and in my opinion they won't get anything here. Straight on Nice!

Edited February 6, 2017 by Pep004

[DrBetter]

Besides PSG, I don't have any good feelings for those games... Montpellier with Gasset the new coach could do something at home against monaco, they've just won, Ikoné seems on fire as Mounie, i don't believe in it really, but tough one... Could be an easy victory for monaco too... But with the champions league coming soon, i wonder if some players couldn't have their mind and focus somewhere else...

I have a good feeling about Marseille, Metz and Nice but not sure i'll take any risks on these ones... St Etienne is perfectly able to catch a draw at Nice, no doubt for me.. tricky match..

Guimgamp is also not a bad team, coached by an ex-coach of PSG who is a real fighter, and insist on a real game identity, Guimgamp did a few good games, and sometimes deserved the victory in a few games... they're in a bad row, but can have a reaction at Marseille... I will wait until tomorrow to make a decision, but in the middle of a week, i'm not a big fan of these games which often produce some surprises.. 

[Pep004]

Lorient - Toulouse

PICK: Lorient AH -0,25 @2,01 PINNACLE 4/10

Match between 20th and 10th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Le Moustoir in Lorient and it will start on Wednesday at 19:00.

Lorient exactly knows what are they doing wrong, and I believe that they will be careful this time. I am talking about they're defensive part of the match. They are all in attacking and sometimes not thinking about defence at all. They did it well against Lille, and it looks that they are becoming more serious when it comes to defensive actions. Moukandjo is coming back after winning ACN, probably he won't be in the team but that's another reason for Aliadiere who is finally 100% fit after injury to prove that he should stay in first lineup. He hasn't scored in Ligue 1 for 994 days! Well.. now he has scored decisive goal against Lille and I believe that morale is boosted. Waris could extend the lead, but match finished with 0-1.

Toulouse won against Angers with 4-0. I need to admit that after all the problems in the club, many questions about abilities of Dupraz, I didn't expect this result against Angers and they surprised me. On the other hand, Angers missed a lot of players, but anyway. They are on 10th place, but just 8 points above last placed Lorient.

Marveux added another assist with great performance against Lille, and also on La Moustoir he will be one of key players of Lorient. Toulouse won against Angers, now they are traveling to Lorient, while on week-end they will host Bastia, and I believe that they will be satisfied with 6 points in those 3 matches. As they're squad is not really wide, and as home match against Bastia will be more important for them, maybe we'll see some rotations of Dupraz. On the other side, bad result against Dijon vanished with win in Lille, honestly - they should win even against Dijon and they know that. I believe that they won't repeat the mistake and take all of important 3 points this time. Next match will be away at St. Etienne and then they will host Nice. So two tougher matches, and importance of this match against Toulouse is even bigger because of that. Anyway I am taking -0,25, which means that we'll receive half stake back in case of draw. 

[Icongene]

What about Bastia at home to Nantes? Any team that just lost 0-2 at home to Nancy is vulnerable surely?

[Pep004]

If they will play as good as they did till receiving first goal, I wouldn't touch this game.  Iloki will probably be back, instead of red Harit and for my point of view Iloki is really important part of this team. His direct approach was missing against Nancy that they would create even more chances. But anyway, they had enough of them, they should just score.

 

[Pep004]

Marseille - Guingamp

PICK: Marseille AH -0,75 @1,92 PINNACLE 6/10

Match between 6th and 8th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Velodrome in Marseille and it will start on Wednesday at 21:00. 

Marseille is coming to match after unexpected lost in Metz. They played fine in first half, but in second they were getting worse and worse from minute to minute and Metz took advantage in last 10 minutes. In my opinion they missed duo Gomis-Thauvin together on the pitch. Garcia decided to give a chance to Sertic and Sarr few days ago, but now I expect the strongest lineup as they are playing at home, where atmosphere is getting more and more electric - even more after signing Payet. Maybe he will start this time, but in my opinion he still needs to work and develop to this team.

Guingamp is another team who suffer unexpected lost against the opponent from last places - Caen. They had some decent chances, but Vercoutre (goalkeeper of Caen) was in good day form. They have two big (names) clubs in front of they're schedule - first OM, than OL, but against Lyon they will play at home and from this point of view it should be easier. 

It is always hard to play against rising team, when they lose and exactly that happened to Marseille. I believe that in front of home supporters they will try to offer amazing match again (last home match was 5-1 win against Montpellier). Gomis who said that he was not ready to play two 90 minutes matches in row, will probably be in first lineup now and with captain on the pitch, I believe that things will be different. I also hope that we'll see Vinequer in role of defensive midfield this time and with wingers about who I am writing all the time, I think that OM will be simply too tough for Guingamp here, for who I said on start of second half of season, that in my opinion they will start falling shortly. They had great start in the season, but in my opinion they won't be in top8. I think that possession is not a question here neither. Marseille has much stronger players in midfield, and I believe that in collaboration with attackers they will create a lot of chances, without doubt at least 3-4 really good ones which gives me confidence to back home team here.

[betcatalog]

Montpellier has the worst defensive line with 40 goals in 23 games. Overall league has 19 to 23 over 2,5 and 7 to 11 over 2,5 home. The Monaco has by far the best offensive line with 68 goals in 23 games, which scored three goals per game average. Monaco has to prove that worthy tops the standings, needed to get from Montpellier to be able to claim to the end the title, best attack against the best attack will trust Monaco
HSC MONTPELLIER vs AS MONACO @@ WIN AS MONACO, odds 1.75

[malabgd]

Montpellier HSC v AS Monaco

Montpellier HSC: Ninga (9/5 f), Congré (14/1 d), Marveaux (7/0 m), Sessegnon (13/1 m, suspended), Deplagne (15/0 d, doubtful), N’Diaye (2/0 d), Poaty (3/0 d)

AS Monaco: Carrillo (16/7 f), Raggi (8/0 d), Dirar (8/0 m), Silva (22/5 m, doubtful)

 

SM Caen v Girondins Bordeaux

SM Caen: Voisin (0/0 m), Sané (12/1 f), Dabo (2/0 d), Guilbert (12/0 d, loaned from Bordeaux)

Girondins Bordeaux: Touré (6/0 f), Maurice-Belay (0/0 m), Traoré (6/0 m), Contento (13/0 d), Lewczuk (16/1 d), Ounas (15/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Pep004]

I decided to skip Monaco in this week as well, as Montpellier has Boudebouz back in team, and specially because Jardim could rest Bernardo Silva as he is slightly injured and CL is coming soon... He is by far the most creative player in this league and even if Monaco has lot of good players, he is the one who can break any kinds of defences.

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Ligue 1 games:

Monaco have won 55% of their away matches this season.
PSG have won 64% of their home matches this season, scoring 25 goals and conceding 4 goals.
Nice have won 75% of their home matches this season.
Dijon have won 9% of their away matches this season.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-07-02-2017

[stanleybright]

Montpellier vs AS Monaco

 

Montpellier truly needed the win over Bastia this weekend and they got it with a struggled 2-1 win in the wake of losing 3 games from their last 4.
It's really interesting to note that those defeats happened in their away games. The reason is that Montpellier are plainly a different team when they play on home ground at Stade de la Mosson.

Here Montpellier has the sixth best record in Ligue 1 and has lost only 1 fixture all season at home.

This is a squad who venture up when they confront a major test. So for each time they could just get a draw over any semblance of Nancy and Dijon, they beat Bordeaux and PSG. There is a real feeling inside the camp that they can perform well against Monaco when they touch base here for Tuesday night's game.

On the other side, Monaco are finally serious title contenders, this was affirmed with their overwhelming 3-0 win over Nice.

They are 3 points clear at the top from PSG and Nice and will realize that they need to proceed on the correct way as teams are breathing down their neck.

Monaco are in incredible form with only one defeat in their last 10 fixtures and in their away games they have 21 points from a conceivable 33 and are undefeated in their last five games.

My prediction is: Over 2,5 goals in game  @1.65

[StevieDay1983]

On 06/02/2017, 15:41:21, Icongene said:

What about Bastia at home to Nantes? Any team that just lost 0-2 at home to Nancy is vulnerable surely?

Yes, that is one where I am a bit tempted by. I am reluctant to bet against Nantes but a loss like last weekend can often be hard to get over. A draw might be a safer option.

[Icongene]

15 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Yes, that is one where I am a bit tempted by. I am reluctant to bet against Nantes but a loss like last weekend can often be hard to get over. A draw might be a safer option.

I've left it alone as I think the value is probably on Nantes although im not confident to back them after Nancy.

[Pep004]

I agree @Icongene. Especially with odds dropping on Bastia, value on Nantes is rising in my eyes. They will be hard to beat for sure. But pitch condition in Corsica is always disastrous. Under is an option, but odds are set perfectly. No more than 1,50 on under 2,5, which is totally correct in my opinion.

Honestly, even though I would like Monaco to raise the trophy this season, I would really like to see them dropping points tonight.  

[Pep004]

1-Subasic; 5-Jemerson 25-Glik 19-Sidibé 23-Mendy; 27-Lemar 14-Bakayoko 8-Moutinho 10-Silva; 29-Mbappé 18-Germain

Fabinho and Falcao on the bench and odds are jumpy.. 

 

edit: but sh**.. they are sooo god damn good!

Edited February 7, 2017 by Pep004

[Icongene]

I hope no poor bastard was on a Caen win tonight? Their 'performance' v Bordeaux was horrible.

[StevieDay1983]

13 hours ago, Icongene said:

I hope no poor bastard was on a Caen win tonight? Their 'performance' v Bordeaux was horrible.

Yeah, 4-0 at home is atrocious. Monaco and PSG both scraping through their games as well with performances that could have been better. Well, they do say winning when you're playing off your best is the key to winning titles.

[sajtion]

16 hours ago, Icongene said:

I hope no poor bastard was on a Caen win tonight? Their 'performance' v Bordeaux was horrible.

unfortunately i was on both teams to score. i watched the match and it was unbelievable how bad caen were. it was gutless performance. 

 

does anyone actually believe lyon can win tonight? they had two men sent off on sunday. when they went 2 goals down in first twenty minutes they paid the price for slow start. st etienne then shut the shop and it was too late to claw their way back. i am expecting them to bounce back here though

Edited February 8, 2017 by sajtion

[Pep004]

I think that they will, but odds are far from valuable. Any news about Nice? Odds are raising crazily.

[Magic0024]

Saint-Etienne have won their last 3 matches in Ligue 1.
There have been under 3 goals scored in Nantes's last 8 games in Ligue 1.
There have been under 3 goals scored in Nancy's last 6 games in Ligue 1.
Toulouse have failed to win their last 7 away matches in Ligue 1.

You can find more interesting streaks for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-08-02-2017

[hairline]

Well well... we have to be very careful with underdogs in this period of time.... Did anyone noticed Lyon no draw strike ? 17 :O I am impressed actually, and thinking it's about time to hunt the draw quite seriously. Nancy drew against Toulouse and St.Etienne... can they hold Lyon ? Why not, and the [email protected] is the juice If you lose this time, double your stake next time, and you will get your profit eventually, I am very confident about that.

 

[Icongene]

Tempted to back Nice at those odds but I just have a lingering feeling that wheels are coming off right as the title push approaches. Think this will be low scoring.

[hairline]

Also placed medium stake on Bastia - Nantes [email protected] which is catching. Bastia is always a force at home and they can always score, and Nantes are no mugs either AND they played under2.5 goals game 8 times in a row, and this is telling something.

[hairline]

FCNA

Metz are doing well at home, and Dijon have big balls, what do you think about that ? Over2.5 maybe ? Or maybe the homewin is a bit more sensible ?

Edited February 8, 2017 by hairline
update

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, sajtion said:

unfortunately i was on both teams to score. i watched the match and it was unbelievable how bad caen were. it was gutless performance. 

 

does anyone actually believe lyon can win tonight? they had two men sent off on sunday. when they went 2 goals down in first twenty minutes they paid the price for slow start. st etienne then shut the shop and it was too late to claw their way back. i am expecting them to bounce back here though

The odds for Lyon are putting me off. Anybody under 1.50 when they have not been dominating games is a turn-off for me. I'm tempted to back under 2.5 goals being scored after @Magic0024's post about Nancy's last six matches though.

[Pep004]

I am more and more curious about Metz... Those odds are way too high.