Monthly Naps Competition, Saturday 9th January 2016

[bluemal]

Chepstow 1:45 Fourovakind @ 25/1 William Hill e/w thanks

Fourovakind......from Harry Whittington yard another pick which has blue the silks are red white and blue that will do , the 11yo is a winner here back in January last year on heavy going over 3m since that run he finished last season off with two more runs where he managed two 3rd place finishes before going away for summer break , He reappeared in November last year at Lingfield 3m heavy where he finished 3rd again but only 7 runners in race but at least he blew the cob webs off and hopefull yard has sorted his jumping out as he tended to jump right several times The yard bring in Nico de Boinville to ride horse for first time but hopefully he's down some schooling work with him

[Trotter]

Kemp 12.50 - Comeonginger - win at 3/1 bog boyles

Handicap chase around 18F on soft

My selection has won on his last 2 visits here, in both cases making all and jumping boldly. Both those wins were over 20F but the slightly shorter trip is no problem in soft ground

There are a couple of other front runners in the field but they don't appear to be in good form and I think they'll struggle if they take my fellow on..........these fences are stiff and I can see fallers if they go faster than they're comfortable with to keep up with my choice.

The main danger is probably Balgarry who looks OK handicapped.......my worry about him is the jumping - one fall and one Unseat in his last 5 runs and these fences might catch him out

 

[corky]

1345 chepstow

 

1pt win emperors choice 10/1 willyhill

[Woodysway]

Chepstow  1.45  Bertie Boru  0.5 pts  e/w 

[Jimmy2shoes]

1:45 Chepstow - Allez Vic.  1pt Win Bet @ 40/1 Bet365  

[BillyHills]

235 Kempton: Bivouac 4/1 bet365

Put this one up earlier in the week when he was 10/1 so have to follow him here as i'm not sure about anything at Chepstow on that ground and the other races at Kempton are either very tricky or poor value (Ptit Zig, Tapaculo)

Will be suited by this trip on this track and should handle the ground according to connections. Noel Fehily rides as its the same owners as Silviniaco Conti and i like him around here.

[Striker]

1.10 Chepstow-Hansupfordetroit

Each Way @ 15-2 [Boylesports] BOG

[gbettle]

2016-01-09 13:45 Chep 3m5f Grd3 Hcap Chs Mountainous

[btugero]

3.10 Kempton - Shangani - 6/1 Bet365

[sirspread]

Threebagsue 120 ling 6/1 willy hills

[Xtc12]

14.05 Punchestown - Attribution - 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365

[Wtrylika]

2:20 Chepstow, Forgiving Glance, 12.00 at Bet365

 

[Tipsterix]

12:45 Lingfield: SMIRNOVA @ 25/1 SkyBET

[Cairnhill Diamond]

Countdown Oscar in the 2-55 Chepstow 1/2 pt e/w 6/1 with Betway please.

[Sugardaddyken]

Tapaculo      1:25       Kempton Park     5/6 @ Coral 

[Boulder5111]

C1.45 Woodford County 16/1 Bet365

This is going to be a real slog with few finishers strung out so an out and out stayer is required and this one fits the bill. All 5 of the horses career wins have been on soft or heavy over 3 miles and beyond. The light weight and booking of a top 5lb claimer also helps and this one could be plugging on when many of the others have had enough.

 

[robertob]

2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)

Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes. 

He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.

The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip. 

Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.

This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.

Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.

Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.

Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.

The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish. 

If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago. 

So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa. 

De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me. 

Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill

[Rainbow]

1.45 Chepstow  CHASE THE SPUD  needs to find a bit more on all known form, but capable of better and the applications go on today.  Should have no problem with the trip and ground, so although a very hard race to win, this one looks a massive price on all we know.

0.5pts EW 33/1 Bet365 BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

27 minutes ago, robertob said:

2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)

Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes. 

He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.

The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip. 

Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.

This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.

Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.

Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.

Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.

The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish. 

If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago. 

So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa. 

De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me. 

Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill

Some write up, best of luck 

[arsenalfh]

1.45 Chepstow - Red Devil Lads e/w @ 16/1 Bet365

Won 3 on the bounce before bumping into the promising Katkeau on his reappearance who is rated 148 after just two starts over fences. Only 7 and sure to improve his rating after being raised just 2lbs for that and his front running style will suit in this ground where it will be hard to make up ground from the rear. Loves the mud and although he's yet to run beyond 3m he stays that trip well in testing ground.

[bymatrix]

Chase the Spud ( each way ) 1.45 Chepstow , 33/1 Ladbrokes

[thebestthere]

1.45 Chepstow Benvolio 22/1 Bet365

[Jediknight]

Chepstow 3.25 Quincy Des Pictons (14/1 bet365 bog)