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Monthly Naps Comp, Monday, 23rd November 2015


robertob

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2.35 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Seven year old Dynamo Walt is probably high enough in the mark here but ran with plenty of credit the last two starts, following on from his half a lengths success over course and distance. 

The draw hasn't been kind those last two times, it is much more in his favour here. It was eye-catching how he overcame the widest draw at Kempton lto, burning allot of energy in the first two furlongs to get across and take the lead. 

He tired eventually in the final furlong, but the merit of this performance is better than the bare result. The form starts to work out well too in the meantime. 

Dynamo Walt @ 18/1 Bet365

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2.45 Kemp - Sew On Target - win at 13/2 bog wm hill

Class 3 handicap chase over around 20F

My selection is the oldest horse in the race and as such might have needed his two runs at Cheltenham to bring him on. He did win on his 3rd start last season

Back on his last winning mark and drops to class 3

Appears to act on any kind of track and going and might need this extra half mile these days as he's a bit too slow for the minimum trip

What swings it for me though is that he is a good jumper and looking through the field all of the others have been making jumping errors and most of them are relatively inexperienced. Kempton's fences are stiff and generally find out sloppy jumpers particularly at pace which should be the case here with lots of front runners. I expect quite a few of these might not get round or might be compromised by poor jumps

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3.05 Chelmsford - Grey Mirage win @ 8/1 SkyBet

He has been running in similar class 2 AW handicaps for the past few years and won the AW mile championship at Lingfield on Good Friday two runs ago. He had today's favourite, Mindurownbusiness, comfortably behind him. He's re-opposing him again and is 2lbs better off this time so should be confirming the form. He was disappointing lto but was entitled to need the run after a break of 222 days so should be fitter for this. It's a bit of a concern that Grey Mirage looks the second string on jockey bookings with Luke Morris favouring Lacan but today's jockey is taking 3lbs off and has a 27% strike rate around here so the jockey bookings aren't that big of a problem.

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245 Kempton: Saffron Wells EW 10/1 bet365/SJ

Really nice handicap for a Monday and plenty in with a chance. On for two of the market leaders are a bit tight on price so i'm taking a chance on Saffron Wells at on a track that suits him well. The trip and the going are ideal too and comes here a few pounds lower over fences than when last seen in a handicap over hurdles.

Had just the one run over bigger obstacles and i thought it was quite promising behind the very useful Semategal and the well regarded Three Musketeers. He was 5th in the end and is sure be fitter and wiser today and is a fair price.

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2.45 Kempton - The Clock Leary @ 3/1 PaddyPower

Had this one backed the last time when he was quite well fancied. He over jumped the first landing quite heavily and was never travelling after that. He's been dropped 2lbs by the handicapper and off 128 he looks very well handicapped after giving now 153 rated Cocktails at Dawn a 11L battering this time last year in a handicap on his chasing debut. With just 3 starts over fences under his belt he's unexposed and a promising sort for Venetia Williams.

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4.35 Chelmsford

Despite the small field theres no lack of pace in this race, the smal field could along with the pace could leave this open to a finisher.

Cotton Clubs last win was over CD, respectable effort last time out at Wolves off revised mark having got hampered slightly. A further 1lb rise makes tougher again but not out of this.

Treasure The Ridge was a bit keen in the first time cheekpieces last time out over 2f shorter around here latest, needs to step up on that with cheekpieces retained and step up in trip.

Duchess Of Marmite hails from the red hot in form Richard Hughes yard, she has improved for the switch to this yard with the blinkers fitted. Won over this trip at Kempton on penultimate start. Left with far too much to do over a trip probably too short now at Wolves latest and will appreciate this return to 2 mile running off the same mark.

 

1pt win Duchess of Marmite 5/2 bet365

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3.55 Ludlow  RADUIS BLEU  has fitness that has to be taken on trust, but going on bare form and weights alone, this one does have a great chance.  Jockey takes off another 7lb, so with no trip and ground concerns he can go very close, if of course fit enough.

1pt win 33/1 Totesport bog

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