The Saint Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I've lost myself in a pool of knowledge, I feel like I am trapped in a matrix, I have no dimensional aspect, lost in a warp without values. Need help getting back on the right track. Seriously, this isn't good with a big season up and coming. It's like, I can no go through a card & give every horse a chance I'm swayed by prices, lost all confidence in my ability and have turned into a wreck. Any help guys? Sorry to hear mate - and this from possibly the most fragile punter here! Just bumped the thread that was a massive help to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread If you backed place only' date=' you would be a millionaire Rupert. Something to look at? You would clean up on betfair backing place only.[/quote'] Agree that Rupert's selections should definatly be showing a better profit. As long as one doesn't end up with a staking plan that would suit previous results and then mentality/selections change!! As much as it pains me - also agree with you on Burton Point yesterday - defiantly could have won but BG did not want to find out. Slowed the horse just as everything else was trying to speed up and lost momentum that he didn't regain until it was too late. If the odds were the other way rounf and he was riding the 4/6 shot everyone would be up in arms imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread If you backed place only' date=' you would be a millionaire Rupert. Something to look at? You would clean up on betfair backing place only.[/quote'] :rollin Not far wrong at the moment that's for sure! I guess it's always good when you're getting a run for your money. Whichever way I play it, it always seems like I should do the opposite! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread What was James Reveley's thinking there, I know I'll sit 20 lengths off the leader in a 7 runner race? Maybe the horse just never went on the ground but we'll never know I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Agree that Rupert's selections should definatly be showing a better profit. As long as one doesn't end up with a staking plan that would suit previous results and then mentality/selections change!! As much as it pains me - also agree with you on Burton Point yesterday - defiantly could have won but BG did not want to find out. Slowed the horse just as everything else was trying to speed up and lost momentum that he didn't regain until it was too late. If the odds were the other way rounf and he was riding the 4/6 shot everyone would be up in arms imho. Finally. A man that saw what really went on :-) Burton was hacking all over Long Run. As i said already, Henderson didn't want his Gold Cup superstar getting beat on its run just before the festival. Geraghty held back on Burton in my opinion, and it is easy use the excuse that he was off the track for ages, but in my opinion he didn't need to be hard on the horse to win it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Finally. A man that saw what really went on :-) Burton was hacking all over Long Run. As i said already, Henderson didn't want his Gold Cup superstar getting beat on its run just before the festival. Geraghty held back on Burton in my opinion, and it is easy use the excuse that he was off the track for ages, but in my opinion he didn't need to be hard on the horse to win it. over reaction aidy, he never headed the horse and jumped right at the final fence. BG wasnt hard on him but that doesnt mean he could have won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Well if you'd have told me Always Right was going to be pulled-up when they turned in, I'd have thought you were crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread over reaction aidy' date=' he never headed the horse and jumped right at the final fence. BG wasnt hard on him but that doesnt mean he could have won[/quote'] He never headed the horse because he did not want to head him. Even Geraghty was interviewed today and he said he felt the horse had a bit more to give but he did not want to be too hard on it, and said he fancies his chances on Burton in the Gold Cup. So that backs up what i said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLL Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Well if you'd have told me Always Right was going to be pulled-up when they turned in' date=' I'd have thought you were crazy![/quote'] Another quality ride from James Reveley. :p Pulled up without ever coming off the bridle. Very Confusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I'm such an idiot. Saw 54 there (for the national) for Giles Cross after his win, didn't take it because I thought surely it'd be gone by now, must be something wrong. Now into 24. Took a tiny bit of 36. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread He never headed the horse because he did not want to head him. Even Geraghty was interviewed today and he said he felt the horse had a bit more to give but he did not want to be too hard on it' date=' and said he fancies his chances on Burton in the Gold Cup. So that backs up what i said.[/quote'] Thats not what you said though aidy, you said it was hacking all over the winner which it wasnt. It never headed it and the jump at the last possibly cost him the race. If you think Barry threw it cos he was told to then fair enough but i think you are wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Nicholls said he had a bad day, make it 2 days Paul!!! 1-30 in 2 days is very poor by his standards. Only Zarkandar won at meetings he normally has many winners at Ascot, wincanton and newbury perhaps zarkandar form can be taken as more to come based on the running of others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I swear this always happens to Nicholls before the festival. Probably because his best horses aren't out and his best handicapped horses are being saved! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Nicholls said he had a bad day, make it 2 days Paul!!! 1-30 in 2 days is very poor by his standards. Only Zarkandar won at meetings he normally has many winners at Ascot, wincanton and newbury perhaps zarkandar form can be taken as more to come based on the running of others. Don't worry too much, he'll leave them with a bit to do and get them spot on for Cheltenham. Al Ferof, Big Bucks and Zarkandar were his only winners in 2011 so maybe he's changed tactics this year in terms of preparation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Don't worry too much' date=' he'll leave them with a bit to do and get them spot on for Cheltenham. Al Ferof, Big Bucks and Zarkandar were his only winners in 2011 so maybe he's changed tactics this year in terms of preparation.[/quote'] most would be happy with 3 though Phil wont they!!! Great days today for Tizzard and King though!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread most would be happy with 3 though Phil wont they!!! Great days today for Tizzard and King though!!! Yes I suppose so but he has such a stable of stars you'd expect him to be top trainer at the festival and winning more than 3. Saying that, I believe Mullins only had 4 winners last year but I guess that isn't bad over 4 days. Alan King seems to do ok at the festival over the years, had good days backing Voy Por Ustedes, My Way De Solzen and Katchit. He seems to be coming back to form too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread With Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls and a lesser extent Pipe I always feel King's horses sometimes don't get the attention at the Festival that they should do, and pop in at a price. Similar with Hobbs. I'll be too busy trying to work out what is the Ferdy Murphy handicap plot horse never mind David Pipe's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread With Mullins' date=' Henderson, Nicholls and a lesser extent Pipe I always feel King's horses sometimes don't get the attention at the Festival that they should do, and pop in at a price. Similar with Hobbs. I'll be too busy trying to work out what is the Ferdy Murphy handicap plot horse never mind David Pipe's.[/quote'] i had last years with Pipes Buena vista i have 2 from hobbs stable that i have watched with interest for the handicaps this year. Murphy i am not sure what he will have, he doesnt seem to have any that i can recall to be honest. The other northern trainers may as well not turn up they rarely take home a winner other than Murphy and possibly mcCain. Fingal bay is the novice i keep looking at as a decent chance to get Hobbs on the board and i think he has some h'cappers off low marks that can be considered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Nothing wrong with Nicholls. Lots ran well. I backed Flaming George at Wincanton and he should've won. Daryl hit the front way too soon on him and couldn't straighten him. Wandered all over the place in the final furlongs. Aldertune, Celestial, Neptune all 2nd. They all ran to form, some better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Nothing wrong with Nicholls. Lots ran well. I backed Flaming George at Wincanton and he should've won. Daryl hit the front way too soon on him and couldn't straighten him. Wandered all over the place in the final furlongs. Aldertune, Celestial, Neptune all 2nd. They all ran to form, some better. tend to disagree, Tidal bay didnt jump and was never going well, siviniaco conti went out like a light, The minack was jumping well but was a few lengths off the winner when crumpling on landing, saint roque was well beaten when falling, Zarkandar struggled to get the better of its field to win, many others inlcuding those who were 2nd were expected to come in 1 from 30 at those courses will be a big disappointment for nicholls, loads of prizemoney on offer and he only won the betfair hurdle strangely a race he had never won! WAF, Neptune and Celestial all ran ok, only WAF surprised me as CH has had a good season and Neptune was certainly capable of that run today. He will come back with a bang but those figures are concerning, perhaps trying to run 20 in 2 days was too much for hos team, must have been a nightmare !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Tidal Bay is unreliable. Silviniaco Conty was found out in a proper 3m chase at a stiff track and is average anyway. The Minack was going ok, had top weight and isn't well handicapped off 160 when the front 2,3 were really well in and put them to the sword long way from home. Zarkandar struggled, but Triumph winners aren't always true 2 milers and clearly the slow pace was against him. He needs every yard of a 2 miles and he still won off 151, which wasn't bad at all. What a Friend ran quite well. Saint Roque was 3rd beaten by 2 very good horses. Don't really see your point. Why should Nicholls automatically have more winners? He didn't really run anything that was that well handicapped or that much classier than his rivals. Neptune ran an absolute stormer today, just couldn't give so much weight to a very good rival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread i just feel they ran below par Mileni, they seemed to blow up quicker than a number of others. Neptune didnt surprise me apart from the fact it hasnt won on ground that heavy before and ran a great trial. I am sure Nicholls wont take long to get back on song but 1-30 isnt Nicholls form and i just feel that the enforced break didnt do his horses any good. 6 or 7 ran ok, the others didn't in my opinion. Ruby himself must have been disappointed. CRack away jack was obviously just running for the sake of it, i never felt he could win but 8/1 it went off 4th in the betting and was never put in the race. although i think his mark was far too high today and is still based on his Champion hurdle 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread It's all fine though. Henderson had similar period before the snow, then he comes out few weeks later and wins left right and center. Mullins is sometimes like that too. Lots of 2nds and 3rd just not winning. Doesn't mean they aren't in form or below par. It's just a cold period. Most of the time down to luck. PN, NH and WM, those 3 would never worry me that they won't have fit horses. Can rarely happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Wilson Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Just been marking up some odds for today's racing to see if there is a change in fortunes, this is what they tell you to do in order to get back on track! From first to last (300 Ffos Las, 210 Market Rasen, 220 Navan, 300 Market Rasen) [TABLE=width: 209] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4/1[/TD] [TD]Genlte Bob[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9/2[/TD] [TD]Douryna[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9/2[/TD] [TD]Carragnahmore[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Milo Milan[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Rimini[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Plunkett[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Randjo[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20/1[/TD] [TD]Ferderstar[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25/1[/TD] [TD]Stolen Thunder[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25/1[/TD] [TD]Wynchester[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]13/2[/TD] [TD]Pampelonne 37 p[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8/1[/TD] [TD]Bocamix 9F t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Bin End 25F t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Monarch´s Way 36 v1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]King Mak 28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Cool Baranca 68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Patavium 38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14/1[/TD] [TD]Future Profit 20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/1[/TD] [TD]Manshoor 25F[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/1[/TD] [TD]Ginger Grey 53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20/1[/TD] [TD]Bring Sweets 55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33/1[/TD] [TD]Touch Of Irish 22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33/1[/TD] [TD]Speed Steed 28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33/1[/TD] [TD]Galley Slave 4 t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]50/1[/TD] [TD]Silicium 55 t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]66/1[/TD] [TD]Worth A King´S 38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]100/1[/TD] [TD]Tayarat 9F tb[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]100/1[/TD] [TD]Flora´s Pride 37 b[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7/4[/TD] [TD]Mikael D´Haguenet 29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9/4[/TD] [TD]Mourad 22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Fully Funded 36 b1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Whatuthink 24 t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14/1[/TD] [TD]Rick 29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/1[/TD] [TD]Stonemaster 22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25/1[/TD] [TD]Benash 24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]66/1[/TD] [TD]Forty Foot Tom 8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4/1[/TD] [TD]Elsafeer 113[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6/1[/TD] [TD]Attaglance 43 t[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]15/2[/TD] [TD]El Dancer 24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8/1[/TD] [TD]Conquisto 316[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10/1[/TD] [TD]Dorabelle 22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Not Til Monday 8F v[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]Fridaythorpe 27[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/1[/TD] [TD]River Dragon 7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/1[/TD] [TD]Sir Tantallus Hawk 7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20/1[/TD] [TD]Kandari 651[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Think I may have got that Navan race all wrong! so I am going to write that off. takes time to get back into shape after years of not working like this. Anyhow these are what I've got at bigger prices; Crannaghmore Boy @ 16-1 Plunkett @ 25-1 Bocamix @ 16-1 King Mak @ 16-1 Future Profit @ 20-1 Mourad @ 3-1 Conquisto @ 20-1 El Dancer @ 10-1 Just finding a way of incorporating them into a bet....any ideas guys? EDIT Having looked at how close the bookies odds are in comparison to that on Betfair I've opted for a £0.50p EW Lucky 15 on 1. Boccamix @ 16-1 2. Mourad @ 3-1 3. El Dancer @ 10-1 4. Crannagmore Boy @ 16-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Something for the "Sprinters Sacre won't get up the hill" camp. He's had a wind op after the Supreme apparently. Mould also revealed Sprinter Sacre had a wind operation after fading into third place behind Al Ferof in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at last year's Festival. "The horse had a wind problem at Cheltenham last year, that's why he didn't get up the hill, and he's much bigger and stronger now. He had a bit of a wind problem which has been rectified," he added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Something for the "Sprinters Sacre won't get up the hill" camp. He's had a wind op after the Supreme apparently. And he won't have McCoy on him this year either! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I tend to agree with Bowles that Nicholls horses are not firing at the moment. Neptune Collonges was the only horse that ran very well for him of late, and Flaming Gorge. Celestial Halo got destroyed by Binocular, and finishing ahead of Starluck is not great form with the way that horse has gone. Celestial was off the bridle half a mile out too. Frankie Figg unseated, Crack Away Jack was very disappointing, 13th. Kauto Stone dropped away like a big stone. The Minack fell, hard to know how that would have fared. Flaming Gorge ran well. Silviniano Conti dropped away very tamely. Saint Roque fell. Grandioso went off favourite, got beat 21 lengths in 4th. Sin Bin was 7th. The Pretender went off 3/1, was beat 24 lengths into 4th. Rolling Aces was fancied and finished 12th.. This was all on the same day.. Don't know how you can say all his horses are running to form. He is out of form at the moment. But he will have them right for Cheltenham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread i think Mileni was saying he just had an off day as nicholls doesnt go out of form in the way others do. I think we expect too much, i certainly expected him to have 5 or 6 winners from that list of 30 that ran. And we all know he will be back on form shortly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Ya, i see what Mileni was saying. But for Nicholls standards, yesterday was a shocker. The most eye-catching horse for me yesterday was Giles Cross... He could have ran another few miles the way he travelled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Ya' date=' i see what Mileni was saying. But for Nicholls standards, yesterday was a shocker. The most eye-catching horse for me yesterday was Giles Cross... He could have ran another few miles the way he travelled[/quote'] yeah i love that horse and i only wish it had held on in the welsh national, you coulod see this time the jockey slowed the pace down a bit 3 out and this helped the horse massively. Apparently there was an ante on this race and it was 14's in the week !!!wish i had seen that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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