fintron Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I was on Rupert today and covered him in three ante-post bets for the Gold Cup in various ones. The reason being (stated in the Chelto section) that if he'd won the Argento today, 20/1 for the GC would have probably been 12/1 - with the front two not going to shorten much between now and March and doubts over whether Grands Crus goes for the race. I think he will go for it myself. The stats boys will be against him given his lack of chase experience but this looks a poor Gold Cup and Kauto, who has been trained to peak early in the season, and dodgy jumper/dentist-ridden (yet to ride a winner since winning last years winner) Long Run need taking on with something. Midnight Chase in from 66/1 for the GC to around 20/1. Was contemplating backing Wierd Al if Rupert had run well today, based on the Charlie Hall form, but left thinking the novice form (as has been said plenty already this year) is terrible. Just don't think Time For Rupert is good enough. He has badly outpaced, and I know O'Regan said he felt he could be National Contender before the Argento, given how well he'd been jumping at home, but he's not for me. Against Ballabriggs his jumping is unlikely to hold up. Think Quicuyo deserves a mention for winning another handicap at Doncaster. It might be three he's won there now. I wasn't on, and made Wayward Prince my only bet on the card. Was all over him at 12/1 antepost when got a word that Ian Williams (whose yard have been flying) were bullish and had placed big EW bets on him at 16/1. He ran an absolute stinker despite being backed into 11/2. Another example of the novice form being sheeeeite. Pick sick of jumping and pig sick of racing at the minute to be honest. Money arrived for Waabel again and went astray. Wish he was still with Jim Best and not guesser Richard Guest. Credit must go to Emerald Wilderness who is thriving at present and won another CD handicap for Robert Cowell. Wonder if they'll get it over to Meydan or if its too late with quarantine or whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I personally think last years Novice Chasers are proving to be a very poor bunch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I personally think last years Novice Chasers are proving to be a very poor bunch The RSA must be the worst Grade 1 ever run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread He's best at Cheltenham so no idea why they'd go to a flatter track. Just not quite good enough at the top level and perhaps just lacks that immediate turn of foot which is required. still think he could go aintree route, 1/1 at the track and perhaps its time to change priorities for the horse, that midnight chase is a serious horse though round here, always a decet price also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread The RSA must be the worst Grade 1 ever run. Yup that's what I was thinking. Nothing that finished the race has come out this year and shown anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread This years Hennessey is beginning to look a bit dicky as well.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Have being going through the 2.55 Ffos las tomorrow came up with two favoured Tarateeno as its dropped to mark of 90 and all wins have came on soft or worse looked at betting its into 5/1 from 12's already so that put me off the other on i like is 20/1 shot pension Plan who is lightly raced ground should be ok mark of 95 ok not 100% sure about the distance is a maiden but likely improver. I think the Pipe favourite is opposable too much weight to carry in this ground. Please add your thoughts on the race above if you have any. Thanks Ted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I backed Tarateeno Teddy, it wont get a better handicap mark than this. Going to Time For Rupert, i think if Nicholls trained it, it would be a better horse, its a fact that some trainers are better than others, even saw Tidal Bay's old spark come back today and it will win races for Nicholls... I also feel if Somersby was trained by Nicholls, it would win more Grade 1's than it has done... The top trainers know how to get the best out of a horse, i dont think TFR is good enough for the top level currently... Also think Captain Chris is over-rated and has not a hope of winning the Gold Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I backed Tarateeno Teddy' date=' it wont get a better handicap mark than this.[/quote'] What price you get Aidy and did you back it e/w? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I really don't like Ffos Las from a punting perspective but in this race you have mentioned I would probably be with Al Shababiya. Won over CD last time out on his first attempt at the trip and on his handicap debut. Unexposed over 3miles and will probably be suited by a slog in the mud tomorrow. Good jockey on board and think he will go close to following up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I don't agree about Hinterland, he just wasn't good enough. A mark of 141 was always going to be tough to defy. He was given a good ride imo, Ruby had him perfectly positioned. He hasn't really found a lot off the bridle in any start, I think his UK debut made him look better than he is, I'd fancy Hollow Tree to reverse form if they meet again soon. I know it's aftertiming but can't believe TFR went off so short. Argento was a horrible betting race to be fair. They all had something to prove and nothing came out the pack. The winner would struggle to place in a GC let alone win one. TFR is a handicapper though, I can see him winning a three mile + handicap carrying big weight, just isn't good enough at the top. Annoyed about TGB finally showing the potential I thought he had. Backed him constantly since his chase debut (put it up on here that day) and have been endlessly frustrated in the RSA and handicaps since. Leave him out today and the change of tactics works wonders. Not sure what to make of him now, he'll be raised to 155 or thereabouts so where next? I know owner said last year he backed him for this year's GC. Big Buck's immense again. He always looks full of running when he takes it up, no idea why he always comes off bridle for a bit. People on Twitter saying Oscar Whisky will do him for speed, it's hilarious. Nothing beats him for speed or stamina, he's got it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread What price you get Aidy and did you back it e/w? I only managed to get 6/1 Ted, win bet. Now into 4/1 FAV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread This years Hennessey is beginning to look a bit dicky as well.......... I said it at the time and I think it's showing now. Fair Along took it up, then dropped out, then finished 3rd lol. This never happens in top class handicap chases. Caruthers love him or hate him was just a bad winner, but the race was so weak and the 2nd season novices so bad. In hindsight it's just a normal result. There was just nothing progressive in there. Probably just Great Endeavour and he didn't stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread watched the big Trotting race on RUK.........blimey, it's so weird ! huge crowd there though............they really get into it with flags and banners etc Imagine Jamie spencer riding in that and holding his horse up at the back and trying to weave through 20 chariots on the home turn.........:loon It's got to be all about positioning on the track rather than speed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Have being going through the 2.55 Ffos las tomorrow came up with two favoured Tarateeno as its dropped to mark of 90 and all wins have came on soft or worse looked at betting its into 5/1 from 12's already so that put me off the other on i like is 20/1 shot pension Plan who is lightly raced ground should be ok mark of 95 ok not 100% sure about the distance is a maiden but likely improver. I think the Pipe favourite is opposable too much weight to carry in this ground. Please add your thoughts on the race above if you have any. Thanks Ted I hope you didnt change your mind with pension plan... Great shout!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Wondering what people think of Philip Hobbs. For me his top horses aren't performing this year other than Fingal Bay. I don't think I would back anything trained by him at the festival. I can't remember any big races he has taken this year? Feel free to correct me but I think he is having a poor year by his standards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Wondering what people think of Philip Hobbs. For me his top horses aren't performing this year other than Fingal Bay. I don't think I would back anything trained by him at the festival. I can't remember any big races he has taken this year? Feel free to correct me but I think he is having a poor year by his standards I agree, look at Menorah and Captain Chris, two of the big hitters from last year. Here are his top ten performing horses this season (stats copied from RP) [TABLE=class: grid right] [TR] [TH=class: first left]HORSE[/TH] [TH=class: left]OWNER[/TH] [TH]RPR[/TH] [TH]WINS[/TH] [TH]RUNS[/TH] [TH]WINNINGS[/TH] [TH]EARNINGS[/TH] £1 STAKE [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Fingal Bay [/TD] [TD=class: left]Mrs R J Skan [/TD] [TD]156[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]£55,640[/TD] [TD]£55,640[/TD] [TD=class: last]+4.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Featherbed Lane [/TD] [TD=class: left]Terry Warner [/TD] [TD]154[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]£21,735[/TD] [TD]£29,127[/TD] [TD=class: last]+7.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Templer [/TD] [TD=class: left]Tony Staple & N Sutton [/TD] [TD]139[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]£18,611[/TD] [TD]£24,558[/TD] [TD=class: last]+0.91[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Arthurian Legend [/TD] [TD=class: left]R T Kanter & A J Scrimgeour [/TD] [TD]135[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]£18,509[/TD] [TD]£20,178[/TD] [TD=class: last]+5.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Menorah [/TD] [TD=class: left]Mrs Diana L Whateley [/TD] [TD]157[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]£17,200[/TD] [TD]£24,129[/TD] [TD=class: last]-2.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Estates Recovery [/TD] [TD=class: left]James Drummond [/TD] [TD]140[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]£15,971[/TD] [TD]£15,971[/TD] [TD=class: last]+24.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Balthazar King [/TD] [TD=class: left]The Brushmakers [/TD] [TD]145[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]£15,698[/TD] [TD]£18,358[/TD] [TD=class: last]-1.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Chance Du Roy [/TD] [TD=class: left]Miss I D Du Pre [/TD] [TD]147[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]£15,640[/TD] [TD]£20,185[/TD] [TD=class: last]+10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Liberate [/TD] [TD=class: left]Mrs Diana L Whateley [/TD] [TD]141[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]£13,235[/TD] [TD]£15,310[/TD] [TD=class: last]+10.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first left]Mostly Bob [/TD] [TD=class: left]Favourites Racing XXVI [/TD] [TD]140[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]£12,512[/TD] [TD]£14,183[/TD] [TD=class: last]+2.50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread As for today's racing, Blackstairmountain confirmed he didn't like the ground. He was given a terrible ride by Ruby in the Irish Arkle and never put in the race, but on that testing ground, he'd have never beaten Flemenstar anyway. I expect him to improve on better ground if he still goes to Cheltenham but starting to become even more attracted to Peddlers Cross for the Arkle now. The magic sign have priced the latter 7/2 for the Arkle and seem to have bought into the recent talk by Donald that he'll have him spot on for the day. Should be a cracker against Al Ferof back in novice company and Sprinter Sacre - the race of the festival for me as the World Hurdle and Champion Hurdle prizes should be handed out now and the Gold Cup is never actually that great a race in terms of depth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Completely agree with you about the Gold Cup. Take out the top 2 and anything could finish 3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Hobbs isn't really one for the Grade 1s. He's your handicap trainer. His horses improve with runs and when there is something progressive you can always count on him. Prime examples are Nearby from last year and Featherbed Lane from this season. You can always rely on Hobbs in these scenarios. When it comes to Grade 1s however, things are hard to asses. First of all, every time a good hurdler goes chasing, Dickie Johnson is on and the horses has no chance. Any confidence he could get is close to 0% only because Dickie is on board. When you have Barry or Ruby on, your novice will get a really good schooling and education and you can be sure of it. When you have Dickie, your horse will hit fence after fence and will falter. There are so many examples. So I'll start judging Hobbs once Dickie has retired and someone like Tom O'Brien has taken over as a stable jockey. Still not sure if Dickie is the reason or Hobbs can't train a proper Grade 1. Could be a bit of both. I definitely need another jockey to make my mind up though. Howver I don't care much anyway. His handicappers do a nice job as it is, so I'm fine regardless. Doesn't matter what he does with his Grade 1s :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Sounds like I'm a Ruby fanboy but terrible ride on Blackstair? Horse is a hold-up horse who was 2/2 ridden like that, not sure what he could've done differently, especially when the horse didn't jump well either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Sounds like I'm a Ruby fanboy but terrible ride on Blackstair? Horse is a hold-up horse who was 2/2 ridden like that' date=' not sure what he could've done differently, especially when the horse didn't jump well either.[/quote'] It was obvious he hated jumping on that ground. Plus the winner went so hard in front, nothing could get near him. Reminded me of Rubi Light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
switzerland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Sounds like I'm a Ruby fanboy but terrible ride on Blackstair? Horse is a hold-up horse who was 2/2 ridden like that' date=' not sure what he could've done differently, especially when the horse didn't jump well either.[/quote'] BKI, when Mullins was interviewed he specifically mentioned that both Blackstairsmountain and Terminal didn't go a yard on the ground. So I think you can draw a line through both their runs. Regarding the winner - he's a smashin horse and a serious galloper. He obviously likes it soft but even on better ground I would be surprised if any of yesterdays rivals got near him. He just seems to keep finding and jumping for fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I am toying with the idea of having a bet on Midnight Chase for the Gold Cup. The bigger prices have gone now but he is still 20/1. If he gets an uncontested lead in the race, I think he can run a massive race and improve on his 5th place in the race last year. Long Run is not going to produce what he did last year and he makes far too many errors for me. Kauto obviously has to be respected but I don't see anything else in the race looking like a better bet than Midnight Chase. He loves the track, and has improved from last year IMO. You have the likes of Jessies Dream who is as short as 20/1 and Quito who I don't fancy at all. If Midnight Chase can get out in front and slowly wind up, then I can see him putting the pressure on Long Run's jumping. It is all if's and but's but I think Midnight Chase has as good a chance as any of finishing 3rd and then who knows on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I backed him ante post last year - I think he definately has a chance of a place. To be honest though now I can't see past Long Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edberg Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I agree, I like him a lot as it's not a super field behind the big two (Grand Crus who would be the third won't be there imho) and he looks in super shape and loves it there at Cheltenham. I had a shot at 10/1 without the big two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Jim Crowley the top course jockey at Kempton? Terrible ride on King Of Windsor, never put in the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Agreed... never give the horse a chance. Think Lisahane Bog could be winning soon. Ran well to get 4th considering how much ground he lost at the start. Handicapper might drop him a lb or 2 which makes him pretty interesting next time up in a similar contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Extra AW meetings scheduled for the weekend at Wolves and kempton in the expectation of there being no jumps racing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Bloody nightmare for form study isn't it? You spend hours going through the racing and then it gets abandoned. I can see Wetherby getting called off, it's bloody freezing in Yorkshire and expected to drop to -11 at the weekend apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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