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Monthly Naps Comp, Wednesday 21st Oct - 2015


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2pm HQ - Whitecliff Park.  1pt Win Bet @ 20/1 Bet365

A sire of Canford Cliffs from the Hannon Yard, Tom Marquand gets the leg up, 5 runs with zero wins, ran well last time out be that on the Polytrack, should run well at a cracking price IF he's not just out for a piece of work with Tom being instructed to keep the handbrake on.

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Font 3.35 - Promanco - win at 11/4 bog betvictor

Handicap hurdle over around 21F

My selection won 2 novice races back in May. She had the summer off and returned in a class 2 here 3 weeks ago with a nice run into 4th staying on as though today's extra couple of furlongs will suit. Has been dropped a pound by the assesor and with the drop in grade, extra trip and hopefully coming on a bit for the run she should have a god chance

Market rival is Taradrewe who has won her last 2.......they were Mares races and this tougher, a higher grade and she's up 9lbs for her last win. I'm happy to take her on despite her evident good current form

Drum Valley looks OK but comes back from 10 months off and is likely to need the run. Handicapper might have him anyway as he hasn't won over hurdles for two and a half years and is still 7lbs higher than that win

Mercers Court could be a big danger......won a novice here last time and looks reasonably handicapped on his form from earlier this year. Although he's won here he's also chucked a couple of races away by hanging or jinking on the run in, unseated rider on the flat once. He's probably the main danger but is he trustworthy ?

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2.40 Navan - Three Bells 10/1 hill/lads

 

Three Bells has the best win rate from the field 15%, won only on good going, 6 wins from 21 runs on good, 40 for the whole career. Won 3 just in the last 10 and placed in 2 more of these. In Salutem (currently at 15/8) has won only one from 24 on good going. Oneoveryou (@3/1) has won only once in June over 5 furlongs at 20/1 SP, has had modest finishes since, 3 times 4th from 5 starts. I like 10/1 for Three Bells and won't mind if they (odds) drift.

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445 Footwell: Shalianzi 100/30 bet365/Skybet

Gary Moore has his team in fine form at the moment and this looks the best of his three runners at Footwell today. Quite moderate until winning here in August after dropping to a mark of 88. Followed up a week later at Stratford with a penalty and then came back after a break to run 3rd at Exeter when trying a longer trip.

Back down two furlongs here and on a much more suitable track i reckon he can pick up the winning thread. Its a poor old race, he's only rated 100 and like i say the yard are flying.

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2.15 Worcester  RELENTLESS DREAMER  goes chasing and is expected to do well in this sphere.  Did well over hurdles and so looks sure to go well today.  Apparently schooled well at home and no trip and ground worries, so off a decent looking mark of 121 should take all the beating in my eyes.

1pt win 9/2 Totesport BOG

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2pm HQ - Whitecliff Park.  1pt Win Bet @ 20/1 Bet365

A sire of Canford Cliffs from the Hannon Yard, Tom Marquand gets the leg up, 5 runs with zero wins, ran well last time out be that on the Polytrack, should run well at a cracking price IF he's not just out for a piece of work with Tom being instructed to keep the handbrake on.

I ran better when i was a smoker, another piss take from camp Hannon

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Newmarket 5.25 : Alexandrakollontai @ 25/1 888sport e/w thanks

Alexandrakollontai.....from Alistair Whillans yard I pick this one because one of my grandchildren names is Alexandra , The 5yo has won nine races from 6f to 7f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy and on the all-weather ,

The yard this year have been trying the 1m and in the three runs its had so far she's only found a 3rd place and the horse usually runs up north but for some reason they seem to travel all the way from the Borders in Scotland all the way down to Newmarket as in the last two years she's been down three times with only a 2nd place once,

Jockey James Sullivan has been in saddle last two runs and is back in saddle today although she's got a 5lb penalty for winning two races back with James in saddle

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8.55 Kempton

Typically weak classified event lacking much depth, slight concern there might not be much in pace in this race is a concern for my selection hiowever this sort of race tends to get a few go off at a fast pace even if they havnt previously given the makeup of the race.

Pickle Lilly Pearl is largely consistent and ran better than position suggests last time out particularly on penultimate start finsihing well, a repeat of that would see her go close in this field. She appears atleast in same sort of form last time out when not ideally placed throughout race having fluffed the start. A better start and perhaps a more prominent role in this race could see some improvement and get her head in front in a poor race.

 

1pt win Pickle Lilly Pearl 13/2 bet635

 

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