Monthly Naps Comp, Tuesday 6th Oct - 2015

[Jimmy2shoes]

19 runs with only the one success but looks worth taking a small chance on what with bottom weight, this race is only the 4yr old filly's ''forth start'' of 2015 and if in the racing mood she could easily figure in a race of this nature.

She comes out unlucky for some Gate 13 but that is of no concern as last years winner came out the same gate, her pilot gets the leg up for the first time and will be hungry for winners as he's not been in the best of form, Mmmmmm know the feeling.

16:10 Leicester - Mendacious Harpy.  1pt Win Bet @ 16/1 Betfred, Corals, Hills & the Magic Sign.

[infinity]

Kempton 19.40 Dakota City 20/1 Coral

One win and a second place in 9 runs for Dakota City. Besides the positive return on level stakes and high average winnings per race due to the 16/1 priced win at Lingfield in July, nothing really stands out for this horse, but I am still not convinced the win was a lucky random thing. This might be the type of horse that only shows what it can when the odds are "conveniant" and nobody is expecting it... if you know what I mean...

[Lodge]

5.40 - Kempton - Secret Emotion 1pt @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Lightly raced filly that should be able to progress from a handicap mark of 54. Her maiden form looks nothing special but she stepped up on that when 5th of 9 at Windsor over 1m in a nursery last time. She was only beaten 5L by the very well handicapped Cartago (won only start since), and finished in and amongst horses which have run well since such as Breslin, suggesting she should have a little race in her.

She travelled well that day and I see the step back in trip to 7f as a big plus. The handicapper looks to have been quite kind in dropping her 4lbs and this is certainly a weaker race than last time. Harry Bentley rides for the first time, he is 7 from 32 for this yard showing a big level stakes profit and Ralph Beckett generally has a good record at this course. 9/1 could be a little generous.

[Woodysway]

Catterick  4.30  Morocco  e/w  .50p  8/1  BET365

Edited October 5, 2015 by Woodysway

[DanV89]

4.10 - Leicester - Potternello - 10/1 - Coral BOG

[Striker]

6.10 Kempton-Emirates Comfort @ 3-1 [Bet 365] BOG

[Steve75]

6.40 Kempton Percy's Romance please.

Thanks.

[btugero]

4.10 Leicester - Potternello @ 10/1 Skybet

[Soi Bongkot]

Magical Spring 14.30 Catterick  each way 10/1 bet 365

The trainer has a 30% strike rate with his 2 year olds over the last 5 years,Was staying on well over 5f and the step up in trip to 6f may suit 

Solid each way chances 

[Trotter]

Leic 3.10 - Royal Blessing - win at 2/1 bog bet365

Seller over 10f

This looks like a 2 horse race on paper with my selection currently the second favourite

The favourite, Zubaidah, looks better in at the weights on OR figures but he's still a maiden and the rain softened ground might not suit him as his best recent performances have come on firmer ground. He looks a bit of a one-paced plodder and has finished 2nd or 3rd 6 times from his 15 runs without being able to put a little burst in at the finish to win a race. He often runs to around his OR in the early 60s and that might be enough to win a race like this

My selection has won a seller here at Leicester and showed a good turn of foot relative to this grade. I'm hoping that the little bit of acceleration he appears to be capable of will see him go past his one paced rival. Spencer takes the ride for the first time since guiding the horse to that win in a similar race.

 

[Tipsterix]

14:10 Leicester: PEPPARD @  9/1 BetVictor

[BillyHills]

3.40 Leicester: Starboard 4/1 Skybet/PP

Been raining here in Leicester most of the night and the ground will suit Starboard more than most, i see we have 3 NR's already.

Spencer rides him for the first time and on paper it looks a good combination, should just sit in behind the pace and finish off up the stiff finish.

Been a Group horse in his time and came back to form at Chepstow in the soft 2 runs ago, a decent 5th last time at Donny and should still be able to make his presence felt off a mark of 95.

 

 

[chris34]

7.40 Kempton

Really interesting handicap with a couple of interesting runners who are potentially better than this grade if they can get there act together.

Muhtaris previously comes from top connections, having won on the flat for Godolphin when last seen on the flat off a mark of 77 at Wolves , then made the switch to Ferguson for a career over hurdles winning on debut before running 2 very below par efforts when last seen in Feb 2014, not seen since then but switches back to flat after such alengthy absence running offlast winning mark. Yard not exactly renowned for turning fortunes around and havnt had a runner for 14 days so yard form very much an unknown, very risky.

Geordie Man is similar in that he won his maiden on debut in Oct 2012 and not seen since until 2 weeks ago when running down the field, left with something to prove now despite being completly unexposed.

Lisamour ran well latest start perhaps flattened by that result and a further 2lb rise wont make life easier.

Mikandy comes from a yard in hot form at present and he has been largely consistent all summer, handicapper being rather kind leavng his mark unchanged. Wide draw wont help today and skinny price considering he has become a regular bridesmaid.

There doesnt appear a huge amount of pace in this race and that may not suit the current favourite Magical Thomas who probably ran his best race to date when held up off the pace finishing well over CD a repeat of that would see him go close but a 3lb rise in handicap again makes things tougher.

Dakota City looks massively overpriced in my opinion. He can be his own worst enemy starting slowly which is never going to help on courses like bath and epsom where the emphasis is on speed, so his last 2 runs can be excused and prior to that he ran 2 brilliant races on the AW at Lingfield, winning impressively off 62 before running a good 2^nd off 69, a return to the AW could be the key to him and only 3lb higher from that 2^nd when last seen on the surface.

 

0.5pt e/w Dakota City 25/1 bet365

 

[Boulder5111]

L5.40 Rosie Crowe 28/1 Skybet

This trainer has the best strike rate at this course (5 from 22 = 23%) and there's some interesting angles which suggest the horse may be overpriced. Most of these are based on the horses sire (Approve) and the characteristics of his progeny. Firstly their record at the course is another positive, 4 from 19 = 21%, then there's the record with headgear which is a major positive so todays first time visor is certainly interesting. There are also positives for distance and soft ground, which combined with the horse winning and placed form off higher marks than todays suggest the 28/1 looks far too big.

 

[sirspread]

Rosie Crowe 540 leic 20/1 bet365

[Trotter]

Leic 3.10 - Royal Blessing - win at 2/1 bog bet365

Non Runner

Leic 3.40 - Starboard - win at 4/1 bog stan james

Decent handicap, class 2, over a mile

My horse has been in good form since having a summer break  - winning a class 2 at Chepstow then finishing 5th in one of the big handicaps at the Leger meeting.

The ground has come right for him today with the rain and it might inconvenience his main rivals. The current favourite, Melvin The Grate, appears to act on soft but his last couple of wins have come on the all weather and he's 16lbs higher than his last turf win which was just by a neck

 

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

4.00 Catterick

KIRKMAN @‌ 6/1 Paddy Power

Has gone well twice for Fanning and his third at Thirsk off 3lb higher, a repeat of that would see him go really close especially now down in grade to a class 6.

[geeuppy]

5.30 catterick - mitchum ( 1 point win @‌ sp )

[Sugardaddyken]

 Caltra Colleen     4:10     Leicester   12/1 @ Hills

[Rainbow]

2.25 Tipperary  ELUSIVE IVY  looks to have a better chance today with the headgear applied.  No trip and ground concerns and the markets suggests there isn't anything special lurking in the unexposed others, so should be able to go close today if the headgear works, `as I think it will.

1pt win 6/1 Totesport BOG

[Cairnhill Diamond]

Vodka Time 5.00 Catterick e/w please...

[bluemal]

Leicester 4:10 : Caltra Colleen @ 12/1 - 888sport e/w thanks

Caltra Colleen.....from Mick Channon yard the 3yo only had 10 runs to date and has only managed the winners circle once as a 2yo in only her 2nd run on a racetrack over 7f good.

Since then she's had two 3rd places and a 2nd here 15tn days ago over 7f good to soft where she tried to make all but was headed at furlong pole and was unable quicken inside final furlong but held on for 2nd place by 1.75 lengths and was beaten by 0.75 lengths,

Jockey William Buick comes in for ride for only the 2nd time as he rode it to a 3rd place in May this year

[Tipsterix]

14:10 Leicester: PEPPARD @  9/1 BetVictor

Non-runner replaced with:

 

18:10 Kempton: PERCHE @ 9/1 BetVictor

[robertob]

6.10 Kempton: Maiden Stakes, 12f

Godolphin's Perche cost a lot of money as a yearling and actually looked a promising sort on his two starts last year, albeit he showed some problems at the start in his final run back then. Back off a break in July, he reared at the gate and lost his race there. Gelded in the meantime, which usually works exceptionally well for sons of New Approach as well as trainer Charlie Appleby, he might be a bit more calm now. 

Still lightly raced, he remains with loads of potential, and the 3lb claim of talented apprentice Kevin Scott as well as a good draw are a big bonus today. The step up to 12f is a slight question mark, albeit far from impossible. 

Perche @ 9/1 VC

[Jediknight]

Leicester 4.40 More Mischief (9/2 bet365 bog)

[Xtc12]

Swordbearer 19.10 Kempton  5\2 Boyles (bog)

Finished in the first three in 4 of its last 6 races. Last time out was 3rd of 10 but was left with too much to do, but must be a threat for the in form Fanshawe team.

[Wtrylika]

6:10 Kempton, Rebel Collins, 26.00 at Bet365

 

[thebestthere]

7.40 Kempton Lisamour 14/1

[BillyHills]

Later runners;

 

Kempton 19.40 Dakota City 20/1 Coral

 

6.40 Kempton Percy's Romance please.

Thanks.

7.40 Kempton

 

0.5pt e/w Dakota City 25/1 bet365

 

Swordbearer 19.10 Kempton  5\2 Boyles (bog)

 

7.40 Kempton Lisamour 14/1

[cpo]

9.10 Kempton - Regal Miss EW @ 25/1 hills

Has to get over a poor performance but previous to that she was just touched off by Outrage pulling 9 lengths clear of the 3rd.  That run would suggest this horse could be reasonably handicapped off 65 with Outrage going close off 71 in a handicap since.  Patrick Chalmings is a trainer that has done me a few favours with Scottish Glen so I will take my chances with this horse tonight.