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thespecial1

Australian Open 2015

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Starting to do some form analysis for Aussie Open 2015. Given last year's upset don't want to take anything for granted. BUT, I must admit, given Nadal's time out this year and his determination 2014 outcome, I do like him currently at 6.00. Anyone got any views on Wawrinka's expected efforts this time round? I can't see it being that easy..

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Re: Australian Open 2015 It's been a long season for Wawrinka, he's only just finished up after a sterling performance in London and helping Switzerland to the Davis cup, so even with the couple of months break they get, he might not be firing on all cylinders straight away. But that said, the man is playing supremely well. If he can keep that form going into the start of '15, he has a really solid chance. The thing with Stan though, is he sometimes presses the self destruct button. He really should have beaten Nishikiori in New York, he wouldn't have feared Djokovic and even an inspired Cilic(who Simon should have beaten long before the final). A small speculative e/w on Stan might be worth a shout, but I'd hold off on anything bigger til we get into January or until we get to see the draw.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Djokovic looks primed to win it. I know that seems boring, but he was in beast mode to finish 2014. My two dark horses last year did extremely well. I had Stan and Berdych. In 2015, I will go Dimitrov and Berdych.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 So far Sharapova looks like biggest contender for the title. Depth and power in her shot were pure joy to watch in Brisbane. Serena was very poor for her standards in Perth. DFs, outs by a meter, miss-hits, movement not great - looked to me that she needs more preparation. Ana is playing very well but always same story. Never know what to expect from her on grand slams. Will put few euros on her as local bookie priced her to win as high as 40!

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Re: Australian Open 2015 How come Venus is like 100-1? I know she's past her prime but she won in Auckland just the other day,right!? Very nice to see this thread get going again with very high standard of inputs,thanks everybody who have some knowledge and share! :cheers

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Re: Australian Open 2015 I think teh Djoker will be the Djoker. I am a fan of Nadal, but mainly a fan of tennis. Djoker is certainly the man to win this trophy. As for the women I expect to see Sharapova and Halep performing well enough here.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 So, gents, thoughts on the main draw? A tough starter for Federer, if Lu is up for it, he could cause the Swiss some problems. Home hope Kyrgios is chronically short of match practice, so I can't see him going far. Murray has Dmitrov waiting for him down the line, and then Fed, Nadal/Berdych and Novak/Stan/Kei, so I think we can rule him out. Is Nadal gonna be ready for this? I'm not convinced. The one light on the horizon was his performance in the Doubles recently where him and Monaco won recently. Stan and Kei should both make their projected quarter final, could be looking at another five setter there. Djoker has all the weapons to win back his title, as we all know, and it will take a monumental performance from any of the other contenders to topple him. Roll on Sunday night/Monday morning!

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Andrey Kuznetsov to beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas at EVENS with Stan James. This is the first bet that stands out to me. Kuznetsov has really established himself as a steady grand slam performer over the last 12 months. His last two grand slam outings have resulted in third round outings and what is most impressive about that is that he had to beat some good players to do so. He knocked David Ferrer out of the second round of Wimbledon and he beat Verdasco in the second round of the USopen. He beat them both in 5 sets which shows that he has a good temperament forthe fight. He also took a set off Andy Murray in the third round of the US openbefore losing in 4 tight sets. So this gives you a good idea of the level he iscapable of playing. He already has a few matches under his belt this year in theHappy Valleyy challenger with two good straight sets wins over Thompson andOdesnik before losing in 3 against the promising Andrew Harris. His opponentRamos Vinolas has been around a few years now without ever really ever makingany impact at the grand slams. He had a strong finish to 2014 with a fewchallenger wins but most of his good results have been on clay. Kuznetsov’sweakness is probably his defensive skills (and concentration at times) but Idon’t think Ramos- Vinolas has the weight of shot to trouble him too much here.In fact, I am so surprised that Stan James consider Kuznetsov to be an underdoghere that I am suspicious that he may have picked up an injury that I don’tknow about yet so if anybody has any information on that I would be grateful toreceive it. Presuming he is fit, I think he has far more game thanRamos-Vinolas and I expect him to rise to the occasion for the third grand slamin a row to bag a first round win here. I consider him to be a warm favourite.Good luck folks.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Womens Outright Picks : 2pts P.Kvitova 9/1 Bet365 2pts A.Ivanovic 21/1 Boylesports These are the two I like the look of in the Womens. Kvitova has a nice draw in which she would have to beat the likes of Barthel, Keys & Kanepi. Ivanovic would face the likes of Hercoq, Koukalova & Makarova. Both like the surface and are big players. Kvitova would probably have Radwanska in the Semi-finals. Ana would probably have Halep. Haleps price is far too short.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Anyone else think that the draw looks pretty sweet for Nishikori? Raonic can beat Djoker on his day and should Nishikori get past Stan (which I think he should be favourite to do should that match eventuate) then I would certainly back Nishikori over Raonic. Bottom half looks tough to get through for anyone. Home based, non-seeded players Millman, Tomic, Groth, Kokkinakis, Duckworth have all shown good recent form (Millman pushing Fed in Brisbane) and add to those Kyrgios, Matosevic, Saville, Thompson (1 to watch IMO). At $17.50 @ Betfair I have to have something on Nishikori.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Mens Outright Picks : 3pts K.Nishikori 16/1 Sportinglife 1pt T.Berdych 33/1 Bet365 Andy Murray also appeals but JUST not enough for value for me (11/1) Nishikori has a real nice draw and I think his price will drop over the next few days once we get started. I think Murray will take out Federer so Berdych would have to beat Murray as he has in the past but both of these looks good value for me

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Milos Raonic to win the 1st quarter for a 3/10 stake at 9.00 with Pinnacle Looking at the first quarter, it really should come down to a match between Djokovic and Raonic, in which case these odds just look too high. Considering that the Serb lost against Karlovic in Doha and that Raonic seems to have improved during the off-season, the Canadian does look worth a punt to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/australian-open-2015-betting-milos-raonic-looks-like-the-right-pick-in-the-first-quarter-of-the-draw

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Back David Ferrer to win the 2nd quarter for a 5/10 stake at 6.00 with Ladbrokes Everyone seems to be focused on Nishikori and Wawrinka, which is something that I can fully understand, but what about David Ferrer? The Spaniard looked really good in Doha and has enough to beat both should the need to do so arise, so he looks value to me at 6.00. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/australian-open-2015-betting-david-ferrer-looks-value-to-prevail-in-his-quarter-of-the-draw

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Tomas Berdych to win the 2015 Australian Open for a 1/10 stake at 41.20 with Pinnacle Berdych tends to play well in Melbourne and Nadal, the only big name in his quarter of the draw, seems to be out-of-form right now, so chances are that the Czech could do some serious damage this time around. The fact that he'd avoid Djokovic in the semis should help as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/australian-open-2015-betting-tomas-berdych-to-build-on-his-decent-melbourne-record-in-2015

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Angelique Kerber to win the 2015 Australian Open for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betway Back Venus Williams to win the 2015 Australian Open for a 1/10 stake at 58.50 with Pinnacle Back Garbine Muguruza Blanco to win the 2015 Australian Open for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Skybet Interest punts really, but I just can't bring myself to trust the Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova/Halep quartet for some reason. All three have given a good account of themselves in recent weeks, so they all might have a shot, although a lot of luck will obviously be required. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/australian-open-2015-betting-someone-new-could-take-the-women-s-title-this-time-around

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Re: Australian Open 2015 2pts B.Coric to beat J.Chardy 11/5 Boylesports Coric was really poor against Busta and made alot of unforced errors but I feel he can definitely test Chardy here. Chardy will obviously have all the experience of the big slams but hasn't done well over the years at this event. He went out in R1 in 2010, 2011 and 2012. He did well in 2013 getting to the Quarter-finals but only due to playing weaker opponents. Only Del Potro was a real player in that journey. Last year he got to the third round going out to Ferrer. The big occasion will either push Coric or hamper him. Value in the price. 2pts J.Thompson to beat J.Sousa 13/8 Boylesports Sousa back for his third Aus slam. Went out R1 last year going out to Thiem. Only match he has won was the previous year in R1 where he beat an Aussie Qualifier. Thompson does have some quality though pushing Nishikori to a tie breaker in the third where he lost it 7-4. If he brings that kind of quality he can take this

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Re: Australian Open 2015 2pts M.Youzhny to beat R.Nadal 7/1 Boylesports Just alot of value in this pick. We don't know how fit Nadal is with him losing his last couple against youngster Coric indoor and then outdoor to Berrer, ranked >100th. Nadal will either tear Youzhny a new one or struggle in this match and for 7/1 it's worth going on the latter. 2.5pts J.Vesely to beat V.Troicki 21/20 Boylesports Both of these had a brilliant last tournament. Vesely winning the Auckland tournament and Troicki winning the Sydney tournament but it was Vesely who impressed me more beating the likes of Kevin Anderson, Gulbis and Mannarino so easily when he himself was hitting some good form. Bookies say it's a coin toss but Id favour Vesely at the moment.

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Re: Australian Open 2015 2pts M.Klizan to beat T.Ito 3-0 13/8 Boylesports I suppose it's abit of a risky one with three sets but I just think Klizan has too much quality. He has beaten the likes of Nadal in straight sets recently and although Ito has beaten Wawrinka I just think Klizan will have that upper edge whenever he needs it. Klizan for me in straight sets

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Re: Australian Open 2015

2pts M.Klizan to beat T.Ito 3-0 13/8 Boylesports I suppose it's abit of a risky one with three sets but I just think Klizan has too much quality. He has beaten the likes of Nadal in straight sets recently and although Ito has beaten Wawrinka I just think Klizan will have that upper edge whenever he needs it. Klizan for me in straight sets
Nothing against the pick, but the win against Nadal wasn't in straight sets and it was largely due to Nadal being limited by health problems. That said, Ito has done next to nothing recently, so chances are that he's indeed going to go down in flames. The odds for Youzhny look big as well, might have a punt myself.

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Re: Australian Open 2015

Nothing against the pick' date=' but the win against Nadal wasn't in straight sets and it was largely due to Nadal being limited by health problems. That said, Ito has done next to nothing recently, so chances are that he's indeed going to go down in flames. The odds for Youzhny look big as well, might have a punt myself.[/quote'] even more impressive after going a set down to win. I'll still go with this bet against an uninspiring Ito

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Dustin Brown vs Grigor Dimitrov over 31.5 games 4/5 paddy power Usually the first round of a grand slam can be tricky so Dimitrov wont have it his own in this I think a few sets will be close just to cover the bet So expect three or four sets or three close sets

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Re: Australian Open 2015 Andy Murray (-10 games) to beat Yuki Bhambri @ 1.990 Pinnacle A big handicap, as you would expect given Murray's match price, but I think he can cover it. He should want to make a fast start as there are some potentially tough matches for him later in the tournament, and he played well enough in Abu Dhabi and at the Hopman Cup. Bhambri is a talented young player and is better than his ranking suggests in my opinion, but even so Murray is a significant step up from anyone the Indian has faced in the last year or so. I think Murray will create plenty of chances to break as he has mentioned ahead of this tournament that he is moving well, and if he can win in straight sets and get a couple of breaks in one set then that should give this game line a chance. Mikhail Youzhny (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal @ 2.000 Pinnacle Mikhail Youzhny (+7.5 games) to beat Rafael Nadal @ 1.900 Pinnacle Based on how Nadal finished last season and has started this one, I have to go against the Spaniard here. He has said that he is lacking confidence at the moment due to concerns about his back, and so it's likely he would have preferred an easier first round match than this. Despite also starting this season poorly, Youzhny remains inside the top 50 in the world and was a top 20 player this time last year. Historically the Russian has had his best results against Nadal on hard, and providing he brings his best tennis to the court I think he can cover one of the set or game lines, if not both. Tomas Berdych (-9.5 games) to beat Alejandro Falla @ 1.961 Pinnacle This should be a comfortable win for Berdych. Falla regressed during last season and his start to this season hasn't been all that great either, which doesn't bode well for a longer match against a top 10 player. Berdych looks to be in good shape at the moment, he has a new coach and he made the final in Doha recently without dropping a set and he was serving and returning well. If he can take that dominant form into this match then Falla will have it all to do to keep this close. Roger Federer (-8.5 games) to beat Yen-Hsun Lu @ 1.990 Pinnacle Federer made the perfect start to the season by winning the title in Brisbane, beating Dimitrov in impressive fashion in the last four before getting the better of Raonic in the final in what was a close match. He appears very comfortable with his tennis at the moment, no doubt buoyed by the success he had last season. This time last year he had a new coach, was playing with a new racquet and was still having problems with his back, but with those things now behind him he will fancy his chances in this tournament. He could have been handed an easier opening match than this, but I still think he will come through quite easily in the end. Lu is a competent player and is also quite consistent, and whilst that's enough to get the job done against lesser players it won't cut it against a player like Federer who is strong both on serve and return.

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