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MiddleMan

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Everything posted by MiddleMan

  1. On Betfair Australia, they are offering $1.70 on NZ to score more sixes than India. They currently have two sixes after three overs. Is this good value?
  2. Re: Australian Open 2015 Djokovic looks primed to win it. I know that seems boring, but he was in beast mode to finish 2014. My two dark horses last year did extremely well. I had Stan and Berdych. In 2015, I will go Dimitrov and Berdych.
  3. Re: All Star Game 2013 Three bet for me. 0.75 units on Lebron/Durant MVP @ $2.23 w Sportsbet 2 units on Kobe to score more three pointers than Lebron @ $2.80 w Luxbet 2 units on Anthony to score more points than Griffin @ $2.05 w Luxbet I couldn't believe the odds on the Kobe v Lebron market. It's like Luxbet just looked at the box scores from last year's All Star contest to frame their markets. Lebron won't hit 6/8 from down town again. In the three years prior, Lebron hit 0, 1 and 2 threes in this contest. Kobe 1.7 3PTM this year, to Lebron's 1.6. The other thing I like is that Kobe will be looking forward to becoming a scorer again, as he has changed his game style in the past three weeks to suit his team (he hasn't hit one trey since). I know it's an All Star game, but I just think it's amazing value for something that should be $1.90. Even if they both score the same amount, I make a profit of 0.8 units. Similarly, I reckon Anthony is very good value @ $2.05 to outscore Griffin. I realise Griffin will get plenty of dunks, but Anthony is the East's number two scoring option and should murder them on offense.
  4. Re: December 27 - January 6 Interesting that Gasquet has withdrawn from the Sydney International. Anyway, I've gone Davydenko -1.5 sets @ $2.52 with Pinnacle.
  5. Re: December 27 - January 6 ATP Doha David Ferrer v Nikolay Davydenko Pick: Nikolay Davydenko to win & Davydenko +3.5 games Odds: $3.79 & $2.26 Agency: Pinnacle Stake: 2 units and 2 units Analysis: While I can understand plenty of punters either being frustrated or untrusting of Davydenko, need you to worry about his motivation for this event. The total prize pool for the event is over 1.5 million EURO, so there is no doubt he will be keen to do as well as he can. There's no doubt Davydenko thrives on playing in Doha. At the same tournament in 2010, he smashed Federer 6-4, 6-4 in the Semi Final, then proceeded to defeat Nadal 0-6, 7-6, 6-4 in the Final. While Ferrer is a very good player, he is a level below those two Tennis Geniuses. A year later, Dvaydenko faced Nadal in the Semi Final, but then lost to Federer 3-6, 4-6 in the Final. Last year, Davydenko didn't play at this tournament. In head to head matches, the series is tied at 3-3. Ferrer won their last meeting 6-4, 6-3, which is the only time in their six meetings where Davydenko has failed to cover the +3.5 games handicap. Despite Ferrer being ranked fifth in the world, compared to the Russian's ranking of 44th, when Dvaydenko is on (as he clearly is in this tournament), there is absolutely no doubt he is a top ten player in the world. Davydenko has won all three of his previous matches in this tournament in straight sets, winning a total of 37 games and conceding only fifteen. He has defeated Bollelii, Youzhny and Hanescu, ranked 84th, 25th and 62nd respectively. Ferrer has dropped one set in his three previous victories here, winning 41 games and conceding twenty (an inferior winning games percentage to Davydenko). He has defeated Lorenzi (64th), Kamke (98th) and Brown (167th) in his previous three matches. Not only has Davydenko beaten much higher quality players, he has beaten them more convincingly than Ferrer. Summary: I certainly know who is in better form, and I see no reason for the Donkey to show up on this occasion. Davydenko should at least cover the games line against Ferrer.
  6. Re: December 27 - January 6 Anyone liking Davydenko to beat Ferrer? The Russian has been in some great form in this past week. I certainly think there is plenty of value @ $3.80. At least back him with some insurance and take him @ $2.20 +3.5 games. Another option could be over 21 games.
  7. Re: December 27 - January 6 I'm leaving that Dolgopolov/Nishikori match. I can't separate them at their respective odds. To me it's a no bet match.
  8. Re: December 27 - January 6 Interesting. I've gone the other way.
  9. Re: December 27 - January 6 WTA Auckland Jamie Hampton v Kiki Bertens Pick: over 21.0 games @ $2.07 (pinnacle) Pick: under 21.5 games @ $2 (paddy power) Guaranteed money to be made. If exactly 21 games are played, you will be cashed up.
  10. Re: December 27 - January 6 WTA Auckland Kirsten Flipkens v Yanina Wickmayer Pick: Over 20.0 games played Odds: $1.95 Stake: 4 units Agency: Sportingbet Analysis: The reason why this is good value is simple. Pinnacle's line of 20.0 games has the over @ $1.78. Their line for over 20.5 games is $1.93. Sportsbet has the line at 21.5 games and they are offering $1.83 for the overs. Paddy Power has the line at 21.5 games and they are offering $1.73 for the overs. Wickmayer is ranked 23rd in the world, compared to Flipkens' ranking of 54th. In the only two games between the two, Wickmayer won 7-6, 6-4 (23 games total), and 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 (30 games total). In Flipken's last ten games, six have gone over the 20.0 line. Wickmayer's last ten games have all been decided in straight sets, but three of them still managed to cover the 20 games, and one of them was a push (exactly 20 games). 20.0 games is quite a low line for two fairly even ranked players, so jump on the value while it's there.
  11. Re: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January I am hoping for early goals in this one. I've gone three units over 1.5 goals in the first half @ +120 and over 2.5 first half goals @ +380. Chelsea's last home game produced three first half goals. QPR's last game produced three first half goals. Added to that the fact Cech is missing, and you never know, QPR could get on the score sheet early.
  12. Re: December 27 - January 6 Hi guys, I'm new to this forum and I am looking forward to contributing. I have been reading the forum for a couple of weeks, and I enjoy what many of you have to offer. I have three Tennis plays for you tonight. I am coming off a solid 2012, with a return on investment turnover of 118%, and an $11,000 overall profit. ATP Brisbane Jarkko Nieminen v Aleksandr Dolgopolov Pick: Nieminen +3.0 games handicap Odds: $1.93 Agency: Betstar Stake: 3 units Analysis: Dolgopolov is ranked 18th in the world, compared to Nieminen's ranking of 41st. This is represented in the odds, with bookmakers making Dolgopolov a three game favourite. Nieminen has won the only two previous encounters, in 2011 (6-3, 1-6, 6-4) and in 2010 (6-3, 6-2). While both of those were on clay, Nieminen has shown he can play well on hard court, with a 132-115 career record (Dolgopolov went 21-14 last year). Nieminen comes into this match having won seven of his past eight matches, and he has covered the +3.0 line in eight of his past ten matches. Dolgopolov on the other hand has lost four of his past eight matches, including his previous two matches, two of those four losses to players who were ranked outside the world's top sixty. Nieminen looked in good form yesterday, dispatching of world number 35 Julien Benneteau in three sets. Summary: These players appear fairly evenly matched, so we believe a +3.0 games handicap for Nieminen is good value. He has every chance to win, and is especially a good chance to take the match to at least three sets. Even a scoreline loss of 7-6, 7-6 will be good enough for a winner here, while a loss 7-6, 6-4 will result in money back. ATP Doha Nikolay Davydenko v Mikhail Youzhny Pick: Nikolay Davydenko to win Odds: $1.90 Agency: Sportingbet & Centrebet Stake: 3 units Analysis: We will forgive you if you don't trust our selection here and cannot trust betting on a player who has been involved in match fixing, but that was six years ago and Davydenko looks motivated based on his impressive 6-2, 6-3 victory over world #62 Victor Hanescu in the opening round. Davydenko is ranked 44th in the world, compared to Youzhny's ranking of 25th. Don't forget Davydenko reached a world ranking of #3 back in 2006. The Russian usually does well at the Australian Open (having made four QFs previously), so given this is his lead up tournament, we expect Davydenko to have the best possible lead up to the first Grand Slam event of the year, which begins at this tournament. While Youzhny has won the previous two encounters, Davydenko holds the career head-to-head record three games to two. In Youzhny's first round match, he came from behind to defeat world #65 Ben Becker, losing the first set 4-6 and having to stay in the match by winning the second set in a tiebreak, before going on to easily win the final set 6-1. Davydenko's career record on hard court is 169-107 (61.23% winning record), compared to Youzhny's record of 138-106 (56.56%). Summary: These odds are very generous, considering you can only get odds everywhere else between $1.75 and $1.86 on Davydenko. He is clearly the more classier player, and based on his first round match, he looks eager for a crack at the top twenty this year, so he wants a big start to the season. ATP Qatar Gael Monfils v Philipp Kohlschreiber Pick: Monfils +2.0 Odds: $1.90 Agency: Pinnacle Stake: 3 units Analysis: Monfils is ranked world number #77, compared to Kojlschreiber's ranking of #20. Kohlschreiber is coming off a brilliant 2012, his best year to date, reaching the quarters of Wimbledon (where he beat Rosol, who has previously defeated Nadal), and fourth round appearances at the Aus Open and US Open. Even more impressive was a victory he managed over Nadal in the Gary Webber Open. Gael Monfils on the other had an injury interrupted 2012, which saw his career ranking take a massive dive. He has not played on the tour since May last year, but don't forget that Monfils has a career high ranking of #7 in the world. Monfils reached the final of the same tournament this time last year (also defeating Nadal in the Semi Final), before losing to Tsonga in the final. Now seemingly over his knee and back problems, Monfils easily dispatched of his first round (relatively unknown) opponent 6-0, 6-3. Kohlschreiber beat world number 72 Ivan Dodig (7-6, 6-1) in the opening round. Perhaps the most important stat here is the head to head record between both players, with Monfils holding an advantage 7-2 (he has beaten Kohlschreiber seven of the last eight times they have played). Summary: This game appears quite even. The two players met four months ago in an unofficial tournament when Monfils was making his comeback (indoor court tournament), with Monfils winning a three set marathon (6-7, 7-6, 6-4). Given that Monfils was recovering from injury then, and should be closer to 100% now, we believe there is every chance Monfils will at least cover the games handicap advantage of +2.0 games.
  13. Two Australian books are offering odds of $2.55 on Gary Stone to defeat Steve Douglas on Saturday. Ladbrokes is offering $2.10 on Douglas defeating Stone, which identifies that one of the books has made an error. Upon further investigation, I believe Stone should be favourite, so the odds offered by Centrebet and Sportingbet (they work together, so their odds are identical 99% of the time) appear to be a mistake. I'll be honest, I don't know a heap about darts (I have only recently started to follow it), so I have taken the time to do some research. Stone is ranked 39th in the darts database rankings, compared to Douglas' ranking of 60th. The Red Dragon rankings have Stone ranked 49th and Douglas ranked 61st. Douglas is ranked 16th in the official BDO rankings, compared to Stone being ranked 20th. Douglas is ranked 14th in the PDF official rankings, compared to Stone's ranking of 21st. This is perhaps the reason why Sportingbet and Centrebet Australia have Stone as the favourite to win the match. The other thing I researched were the odds on both players winning the tournament. There's not a whole lot between them, but the shortest odds for Douglas are $51, compared to Stone $41. You can't find anything greater than odds of $67 on Stone winning the tournament, but there are three agencies offering $101 that Douglas wins the tournament. Is anyone willing to offer their two cents and confirm that the odds offered by Sportingbet and Centrebet are more than generous?
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