Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014

corky

By corky
in At The Races - Racing Forum

 Share

Recommended Posts

robertob

robertob

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 14.30 Doncaster: Handicap Chase (Class 3) - Big Water looks an obvious chance given his latest strong win, which looks strong form on paper. He's only five pounds up for it, which looks potentially lenient. He'll have conditions in favour, and the same can be said about Shadrack. The hat-trick denied at Aintree, but softer ground will help tomorrow and the mark looks fair. Those two as well as all the others in the field will have to beat Premier Grand Cru. This lightly raced eight year old was one I've been really interested in before his comeback run at Carlisle, after an absence of more than three years! He went straight into the tracker after finishing fourth that day, as he shaped with loads of promise. He jumped well on his first ever start over fences and travelled really well for quite a long time, in fact he was much longer involved than one would have expected after such a long lay-off. He faded late but that no surprise at all. Now going handicapping, he looks one with much more to come on only his second ever run over the big obstacles, and given that he was 133 rated over hurdles (won off 125) he could be very well handicapped now. Slight concerns are the bounce factor and probably the testing ground. Premier Grand Cru @ 9/4 Coral

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smarty72

Smarty72

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 14.05 Newbury - Grade 2 Novice Chase (Registered as the Berkshire Novice Chase) - 2m 4f Going currently Soft. Last year Wonderful Charm won this for Paul Nicholls and in 2012 David Pipe with Dynaste. Both have runners this year. 5 runners this year with 2 making chase debut and the others having 2nd chase run. Coneygree - 7yo trained by Mark Bradstock making chase debut. Been of the track since January 2013 but was a decent novice hurdler winning 2 grade 2 novice hurdles at Cheltenham at 2m 5f and 3m. Will be suited by ground with wins over hurdles on heavy and soft twice. Has been off the track to long to be considered. Deep Trouble - 7yo trained by Ben Case having 2nd chase run. Was 3rd on chase debut at Leicester over 2m, 6 lengths behind the winner Three Kingdoms and 3 lengths behind a decent yardstick in Thomas Crapper. Should be suited by step up in distance from debut chase. However probably does not look up to Grade 2 class (IMHO). Dell' Arca - 5yo trained by David Pipe having 2nd chase run. Was 4th on chase debut at Cheltenham over 2m 4.5f nearly 16 lengths behind the winner in a race that was more a test of speed than jumping with 6 fences ommitted. Still a valuable chase experience and probably the best chase performance of those that have previously run over fences. Was a good novice hurdler last year at around this distance with a Grade 1 2 length 3rd his best performance. Horatio Hornblower - 6yo trained by Nick Williams having 2nd chase run. Was 3rd on chase debut at Uttoxeter over 2m nearly 13 lengths behind the winner. Should be better for step up in distance from chase debut. Best performance on good ground but has won on heavy. Again does not look like a Grade 2 winner based on chase and hurdles form. Lowest rated hurdler of all these runners. Saphir Du Rheu - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls making chase debut. Highly progressive hurdler last season starting on OR 130 and finishing the year on OR 165 over hurdles. Based on that hurdles form is clearly way ahead of his rivals. However may just need this run after been off the track since February. In the Autumn of 2012 needed 2 runs before registering his 1st ever win and in the Autumn of 2013 also needed 2 runs before registering a win. Verdict Saphir Du Rheu is miles ahead of his rivals based on his progressive hurdles form but could need this run before running to the level of his ability. Worth opposing the favourite this time but likely in time to prove to be the best of these over fences. Coneygree is the other to make chase debut and again after such a long absence from the track needs to prove he has retained his ability. Dell' Arca looks the best of those who have already had a chase run and looks to have the ability to win a grade 2 race. Horatio Hornblower and Deep Trouble both produced reasonable performance's on there debut chase run but do not for me look to have the class to win a Grade 2 race. At the prices Saphir Du Rheu is worth opposing on his debut chase run with the David Pipe trained Dell' Arca who has a race fitness advantage and chase experience. 1pt Win - Dell' Arca @ 7\2 Skybet

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bartrum

bartrum

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 1.30 new bally lengend @33/1 bet 365 back down to a mark he won off last December. Back up in trip and I think the ground will suit. Has a short price McCoy horse to beat but I wouldn't back an odds on shot from the pipe yard with anyone's money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dund0n

Dund0n

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 12.35 Musselbrugh - Tara Mac win @ sp This one has good bumper form, finishing 2nd and 3rd before struggling in a listed event at Aintree. She was probably out of her depth there so a 12 length 11th place finish doesn't look too bad. She was disappointing lto but that was after a break of over 200 days and the trip was probably just too far, especially in soft ground. Therefore the drop in trip looks promising as she has done her best racing at this sort of trip. I don't think that this looks to be a particularly strong race and if she can come on for her run lto she should go close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Boulder5111

Boulder5111

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 N12.55 Walkabout Creek 1pt Win 25/1 William Hill Being by Alderbrook, the ground can't be soft enough for this horse and the going stick is reading 5.4 on the chase course so not many are going to appreciate the ground as much as this horse. The horse was running over too far on its seasonal debut last time out but ran ok until fitness and stamina issues told on its first start for its new trainer

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BillyHills

BillyHills

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 12.45 Doncaster: Relic Rock Evens bet365/PP Very well regarded this 6yo who is making his long awaited debut over hurdles. No better ground around at the moment than at Doncaster for jumping and their novice hurdles are some of the best to follow so this race should be very informative for the future. A short price for a debutant but he beat Fletcher's Flyer who has won a decent hurdle since and then was second to the very useful Ballybolley at Aintree in a Grade 2 race. Nothing from the top yards from down south here so looks a very good opportunity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trotter

Trotter

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 Newb 3.15 - Thomas Brown - win at 2/1 bog wm hill Only 4 runners for the novice hurdle and my selection is currently second favourite There's a lot to like about the favourite, Tea For Two, who has won his last 2 races and with the regular jockey's claim gets 10lbs from my selection My horse has also won his last two and the form of the races he won looks better than those that the favourite won........the beaten horses have gone on to win races, particularly from their respective bumper wins. My horse also has winning form here at Newbury All 3 of the favourite's wins have come on RH tracks, though of course that could just be coincidence Both the front two in the market have race fitness and hurdles experience on their side so the two newcomers to the sticks have a lot to find, given that both of them have worse form in bumpers or points

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rainbow

Rainbow

Posted
Posted

Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 1.10 musselburgh bearly legal looks to have a solid chance, as although only second chase start, improvement can be seen and he did very well last time out over hurdles. no trip and ground worries and the handicapper puts him in off a decent looking mark of 112, so all in all looks to have a big chance. 1pt win 9/1 betvictor bog

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...