BBOTD 1st Feb 2013

[Blazing Bailey]

2.45 Catterick - Romany Ryme 9/1 Bet365 BOG Romany Ryme run a decent race LTO finishing roughly 10L behind a decent 130 rated rival (also receiving 10lb). The 2^nd has won since earning an RPR of 110 giving this one a decent chance off this mark of 103. With improvement expected and conditions to suit (sire was a stayer, previous run on heavy) then I think he is the type of unexposed horse to pop up in a race like this.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 15.55 Catterick - Ros Castle - Win @ 11\4 Bet365 BOG Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 3f 3 chase runs to date, winning on debut then 2 seconds in handicap chases since. Soft ground will be no issue having won on heavy. Hopefully will stay having only run over 17f over fences but has run over further when hurdling with limited success. Clearly not a stayer (PU at 3m 1f over hurdles but should be ok with this distance. Wilson Renwick is the jockey and regular rider for the horse and has a good record at this track with a decent level stakes profit over the last 5 years.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 17.25 - Wolverhampton - Breakheart @ 4/1 BetVictor & Paddypower I had this one down as clear favourite in my book so i think the 4/1 available could offer slight value. Ran really well on Monday in a much better race than this, beaten less than 1L in a bunch finish. In fact he has been very consistent since making his winter re-appearance last November, winning twice under this jockey and rarely finishing well beat. Only 3lb higher than latest win, although he has won off much higher marks in the past few years. Just feel the drop in grade will do him good and providing this doesnt come too soon he will go close once more.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 C2.45 Carmela Maria e/w 18/1 Bet365 It's interesting that 18/1 is available on a horse that has won 3 from 3 on soft ground over c&d on its completed starts. It's 1 from 46 on races at other courses so to say is has a strong course bias would be something of an understatement. Perhaps the most interesting race however to indicate whether it can win off a mark of 93 is it's 3rd when beaten just a length over c&d on ground that would have been too fast for it off a mark of 102. That run was just a year ago so off 9lb less and with the softer ground in its favour, I think it can make a bold show at a decent price.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 *Maypole Joe > Wolverhampton 8:00 > WIN @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG* Derwentwater looks worth taking on, it looks a bit like a mule, and bottles out of races, and consequently has been 2nd four times on the trot. Maypols has course and distance form to it's name, which was a win here last month, and that has to be taken seriously. It is up 6 pounds since that win, but tomorrow has a 7 pound claimer on board, so is effectively 1 pound lower than that success. It won in stylish fashion that day. Last time out it never figured, but the change from Gibbons to McLaughlin was a tale in itself, it clearly was not trying. 9/1 looks massive to me, because apart from the favourite who should be there or thereabouts, it's a weak affair.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 1520 catterick 1pt win get back in line 6/4 pp 2nd on debut last time out,and that winner has won again,mccoys mount gets 10lb from the top two who are both going for 3 timers, this weight might just swing it, if the horse can improve on 1st run

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 3.45 LING BLUE WAVE @ 10/1 Betfred BOG The Johnston stable were in much better form towards the end of Jan and statistically have a goo record in Feb. Last time out this horse lost his chance at the start, was very awkward and never got in the race. Blue wave won his maiden at the track and with Fanning on board could look to dominate. Money around for this horse already which is encouraging.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 5 runs no wins but has run some promising efforts, trained by Sue Smith & owned by Sue Smith and the 7yr old was a bit unlucky on Dec 8th at Wetherby coming home 2nd at 50/1 He was then sent back out of boxing day once again to Wetherby but could only finish 4th, however today's step up in trip might just bring out the best in him, he's well thought of back at base camp and after his break of 37 days if he can just improve a little he will not be far away. He has a good heart ''a will for racing'' and his price looks fair, worth a go. 2:45 Catterick - Green Wizard. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 11/1 Lads - Hills - Corals ''BOG'' Straight out the N/B

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 1:40 Catterick - Hidden Justice - Back Looked a really decent type when winning on hurdles debut lto and looks in a great position to follow up and take this one too. His jumping was sound and he travelled strongly and if he reproduces those again today he'll be very tough to turn over 1pt win @ 8/13 VC BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 355 Catterick: Alpha One (11/2 Hills/Bet365) Competitive little handicap here and the fav Ros Castle is worth taking on as i dont think the track will suit him as much as Carlisle and Kelso where his best form is. Alpha One is interesting and does like it here and was going ok last time in a better race when falling 4 out, it was heavy that day and he will prefer this better ground. The trip is fine and should go well. I see Categorical has come in for some money and he would be dangerous off this mark if returning to his best but has been running poorly of late and the McCoy horse at the top is poor value for what he has achieved. On the whole the selection is much more likely to reproduce his form and is fair value at 11/2.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 Catterick 2.45 - Carmella Maria (0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Betfred) Has a liking for Catterick with three course and distance wins to her name including the latest here in December when re fitted with blinkers. Was running ok when coming down here on latest visit but then bombed out last time at Sedgefield so needs to bounce back from that run and is racing out the weights today so won't be easy but as I said likes it here and could go well at a big price.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 7.30 Wolverhampton Cardinal seemed to win with plenty in hand last time out infront of Desert Strike and Shawkantango. That was a rapid improvement of form off a lenient mark a 6lb penalty puts him on a career high mark and never gone close off this sort of mark and that is the worry. Lucky Dan has been running to a similar level recently and has now dropped to his last winning mark but most recent form has come over further and looked in need of further last time out over this CD. Shawkantango often ruins his chances at the start but he did atleast he showed himself to be in good heart last time out when staying on from a long way back. I am not convinced he is an apprentice ride and this mark probably still just about holds him on polytrack and would make more interest back at Southwell next week. MJ Woodward won off a career high mark last time out and has clearly found his feet again recently. He narrowly beat Hab Reeh who has since won twice, this is a step up in class in a much stronger race a 4lb rise may just be enough to hold him this time round. Sole Danser ran a solid race after a break last time out going down a neck. He looked a useful sort for an AW campaign last year but became hard to win with after winning a handicap off a 7lb lower mark than today he has gone up 3lb for last run too and now must back that effort up. Desert Strike finally ended a long losing run at Lingfield at beginning of January, didnt get the easiest passage last time out but showed himself still in good form to stay on when the opening appeared alongside Cardinal and a repeat of that effort would see him go very close off the same mark 6lb turnaround with Cardinal. He is still on a workable mark on his very best form and useful apprentice takes the ride again taking off a handy 5lb. 1pt win Desert Strike 13/2 vc

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 1PM Lingfield. On The Feather 10/1 BOG hills 1 point win. Down to 64, plus 5lb off with WTD, surely has a shout now up to 2 mile on the flat. Handicapped to win, but you know this AW, its like finding a needle in a haystack.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013

1PM Lingfield. On The Feather 10/1 BOG hills 1 point win. Down to 64, plus 5lb off with WTD, surely has a shout now up to 2 mile on the flat. Handicapped to win, but you know this AW, its like finding a needle in a haystack.

That should read down from 64 to 60..off 55 with the claim.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 2.35 ling - marys pet - sp i know i have totally missed the price on this one but after looking at the market move and the circs i really fancy it. running off its lowest ever mark, kirby on board who has only ever been on board once... and won!!! CD winner who needs t make the running which i think he can here... taken sp hoping the satchells are full and it drifts before the off....

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 Email from Cpo

4.20 Lingfield Foxhaven 1pt win @ 6/1 Bet365 I'll take a chance on the old boy here who is without doubt well handicapped on old form. He is an 11 year old now though, but he did show much more last time out where he finished a good 3rd behind a progressive horse in English Summer who has since won another two times. Foxhaven has yet to win on the all weather from 7 starts but his run last time out was probably his best. His trainer has a good record at the track, operating at a 23% strike rate and showing a level stakes profit of +£14.23. He has the aid of having the most experienced jockey on his back and he should go well with this more than likely being run to suit. He would prefer a better end to end gallop than he got last time as he appeared to be outpaced turning for home before staying on well near the finish. There are plenty of inexperienced riders in this race so its more than likely a decent pace will be set, which will suit Foxhaven.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 7.30 Wolves Sir Geoffrey - form figures are not the most appealing but he has dropped to a good mark as a consequence. Yard's runners have been in much better form in the last few weeks, often running above their odds in defeat. 15/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 marys pet.......... well, i got the drift right..... touched odds on in running but was always gonna get caught. They definately wanted it today, tought kirby was gonna shake the horses head off..... maybe try 5f???????????????? i know i have totally missed the price on this one but after looking at the market move and the circs i really fancy it. running off its lowest ever mark, kirby on board who has only ever been on board once... and won!!! CD winner who needs t make the running which i think he can here... taken sp hoping the satchells are full and it drifts before the off....

[NeilM]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 15:55 Catterick Bridge Alpha One 13/2 (VC, BOG) 0.5 EW Reasoning in a mo as I'm still typing it out.

[NeilM]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 Off to Yorkshire for an enjoyable looking Class 3 handicap chase for five year olds with a rating under 125. It’s over 2m3f and, as usual, is on Racing UK. First prize is £7,798. There are eight runners so three places on the exchanges if we end up with a non-runner. First of three top weights, KANDARI is ridden by A P McCoy for Jonjo O’Neill today (so has the familiar green and gold hoops on). I’d query the official chase rating of 120- despite placing twice from two since moving on from hurdles this seems like the handicapper anticipating improvement. Perhaps a lower rating would be more appropriate at this stage. Showed workmanlike qualities when placing on last two starts as a novice chaser and was a creditable hurdler for Noel Meade. Acts on the ground and with McCoy doing the driving should be thereabouts. One to put in the notebook. QUITE THE MAN was quite the man when grabbing victory at Perth back in May but hasn’t set the world alight since- blinkers last time out at Haydock may have helped a third place. They’re retried today which is an interesting sign. Harry Haynes rides again today but probably needs the run before making a stronger attempt next time. ROS CASTLE is the last of our three top weights, with Wilson Renwick riding today. Looked a progressive sort over hurdles last season with one win and two places from three over fences this season. Up 3lbs for that win but quite possibly open to improvement even with this step up in class. Obviously likes left handed sharp tracks but may not be the answer to our puzzle. One to take for a place though. DIAMOND FRONTIER is another who seems to like sharp left handed courses but hasn’t been of interest since winning at Wetherby in November 2011. Got a 7lb claimer on today and has something to prove for consideration next time despite being 8 below last winning mark. Short of a big surprise this is one we can disregard. SAVEIRO, trained by Alan Swinbank, seems to handle most ground but all wins have been at the minimum trip. Clearly goes well this time of year but has looked a bit dull this season and appears to be at the mercy of the handicapper still. Will need a big run to get close today. ALPHA ONE, on the other hand has been running well this season- was unlucky when falling over this C&D on New Years Day. Won over two miles here and at Wetherby over 2m6f so no doubts about trip- no headgear which suggests no concerns over confidence so one I think we put in the frame unlike PAPA CARUSO who has made a series of jumping errors. Won at Newcastle in 2011 but pulled up over that C&D last time and last of four on seasonal return in November when going off fav. Overall performances suggest this step up in class isn’t for him and even with the market not wholly against I’d have concerns about suggesting. CATEGORICAL, ridden by James Reveley and trained by Keith Reveley, is not one so easily dismissed. On a mark of 114 today, he twice found one too good this time last year and was a tasty winner on the flat back in November. Last three starts have been over fences again with the last one- over 3m- hinting at a possible return to form when weakening towards the end. Drops in class today and another one to consider. Suggestion: 1. Alpha One 2. Kandari 3. Categorical 4. Ros Castle Betting Verdict: Ros Castle has been in good form this season and recent performances suggest can be in the mix, with Kandari one to watch. The jockey booking isn’t as significant as most punters will believe given the owner although he is certainly a horse likely to improve and this is a first handicap over fences. Categorical has a decent jockey on and is likely to make the frame but ALPHA ONE is represents not only the best value but the one with the best chance of a win if the recent fall hasn’t dented confidence. 1pt win ALPHA ONE 13/2 (Victor Chandler BOG) 1pt ALPHA ONE place @ 2.52, 1pt place KANDARI place @ 2.08 both Betfair Total investment 3pts.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 6.00 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Thereabouts @ 9/1 (VC) Fairly unexposed and pedigree suggests that this step up in trip will suit. His runs have also been an indication of him crying out for an increase in distance so this c&d should suit. Wasn't disgraced last time out on what was his first run since August so should strip fitter and is capable of taking this race with conditions to suit and fitness now on side.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 8:00 Wolverhampton - Schottische - 0.5 pts EW (11/1, BetVictor) Sometimes it's not good to take handicap marks literally but this horse can keep up it's good recent form tonight I think despite going up 7 pound for it's last win. Started it's career poorly, running in turf maidens and no immediate promise for switching to AW handicaps either but since it's 100/1 3rd in a 7 runner claimer at Lingfield over 6 furlongs it's shown a lot more, and was in front of horses rated 61 and 74 that day despite being rated 40. 9 furlongs seemed to find this horse out in the race after at Wolves where it finished 5th of 9 but back to 7 furlongs last time out in a seller showed this horse could compete, again beating higher rated horses and did it well enough, beating a horse rated 66 and kept on gamely when getting pressed back and despite making it's move early just from around the bend. May have been overlooked tonight because that was a seller and on literal marks could still be well treated off of 60 in this race where only 1 other horse has won a race.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 19.30 Wolverhampton: Desert Strike, 10/1 Stan James, win Desert Strike was beaten by a length and a half lto by the re-opposing Cardinal over c&d. He gets a six pound swing in the weights and I think it could be enough to reverse that form as he didn't have the clearest run. He has won over c&d four times and he is in decent form this year. Five pound claimer William Twiston-Davies keeps the ride having been on board lto.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 7.30 Wolv - Shawkantango - win at 14/1 bet365 Dual CD winner, has been dropping down the weights and and is now just a pound higher than a mark he's won off twice Been getting closer in his last few runs and might ready to strike now Likes to come from behind and there's a front runner in Crimson Queen drawn low who might well make a decent pace I like Crimson Queen for a big price EW shot

[Karijini]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 Well done Wizzkid & Corky Winners: Wizzkid Walter 8/13 Corky 6/4 E/W Placings: 2nd: none 3rd: none Placings 2nds: Lodge 4/1 3rds: Bartrum 9/2, Blazing Bailey 9/1