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About NeilM

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/01/1982
  1. There appears to be a lot of movement on Pure Science. I've already backed him (those of you who have me on Facebook may have seen my earlier comment) and I suspect he'll go off far as one bookie is about to cut to 3s when you could have got 7s earlier in some places. I'm tempted by a rare trifecta in this race with the Venetia Williams runner and Phare Isle Sent from my GT-I9505 using PL Forum
  2. Contact the British Bookmakers Association and ask. I keep meaning to because it gets changed from time to time. From memory, the greyhound one has more variables in it.
  3. Tapeta. I equate it more to polytrack than sand. Personal view though. Apparently it gets sticky in the heat.
  4. Fairbot gives a free trial. I found it a bit tricky at first but got the hang. I don't use it or any bot right now though (not because they aren't good, I'm just not using one).
  5. I discussed this today with someone I chatted to as part of my job hunt. She works for a large bookie and has 'mixed feelings' about the BHA. Anyway, it seems that it was the cash wagers that did it rather than anything online or over the phone. Apparently there were so many mid sized bets (£25-100) going on that someone decided to find out what was going on, hence the flapping story emerging. Presumably someone, or a group, decided to spread the money around in the hope of not being spotted.Has the BHA issued a report yet? I can't see it on the website. Although thanks to the website I've had a payout on a race at Newton Abbott last year that I thought had been settled by stewards on the day.
  6. I don't think anybody serious takes enhanced prices on any horse. Madness.
  7. No, funny that. There is a formula with horses which has changed a lot over the years. I asked the GBGB how dogs were worked out and got back a really mealy mouthed answer, having pointed out that I had two that came in the same day with the same prices but paid differently. Now I have some time on my hands I might start pushing them on this actually.
  8. Re: £20 a week challenge This looks interesting. I shall be following the thread.
  9. Re: 18 Winners 2 Losts (Laying horses ) +1 Winning back bet-Need advice/help Exactly how does the system work?
  10. Re: UK & Ireland Racing - Who are we? Hi all Just thought I'd pop up and say that after a few months off with some fairly serious family and health problems, I'm going to start posting again. I now live in Manila where I work for a bookmaker (although I'm actually not in sportsbook) so need to manage the time difference...
  11. Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th 19:00 Kempton Tinshu 0.5pt EW 7/1 Hills BOG A tight looking Class 2 on the polytrack here. Some of these are veryobviously being aimed at turf and with the flat season just aroundthe corner I suspect we'll be seeing the likes of George Guru soonafter the Lincoln Handicap. Greylami is now a non runner, a pity asClive Cox's charge looked lset for a place- this is perhaps his lastseason to grab a win on turf and a run today would have set thegelding up nicely. This is the highlight of another ropey lookingcard- with luck, the quality of all weather racing in the UK willimprove when Great Leighs comes back on stream and some of the decentstuff heads down from Newmarket. With the exception of Kaafel and the Graham Lee ridden Super Say, all ofthese are course winners. This is over 10 furlongs and pays £11,828to the winner. Entrants are all rated between 86 and 100 and highestweight is 9st7lb. RobinHoods Bay is a good runner on the surface. He's looked good thiswinter and with an in form trainer and Luke Morris doing the drivingcan go well again today. He fights a 3lb rise but won well at thisgrade at Lingfield some weeks back adding to the form of hisWolverhampton win back in November. Three starts in between suggesthe's a progressive sort- possibly a Winter Derby entrant next year.George Guru looks like hecan be set up for that race as well. He's getting better with age butdistance here is a doubt- he's never run over more than a mile.However with four wins at that distance and obvious ability to gowell this time of year, he is worth looking at. A downside ispedigree- I'm not sure on his breeding for this step up in trip. Thatsaid, at 2lbs lower than his last winning mark- here in December- andwith some decent runs since he will be popular with punters at home.Tinshu had RobinHoods Bay just behind when last winning in November over thisdistance and is only 1lb higher today. Although sixth behind the samerival back in January, she'd apparently missed a gallop due to snowand a middling performance last time out was in a listed trial forthe Winter Derby. A C&D winner, it would be no surprise to seeher fare well today and she may be the solution to the puzzle ascould Super Say. Theex-Koukash owned horse is ridden by the excellent Graham Lee todayand looks well treated on a mark of 91. Last win was at this tripwhen still with Jamie Osborne back in December. That was a claimerbut he ran well a few weeks later at 1m4f in handicap company. Backfrom a break today and with a tongue fitted- clearly gets the surfaceand also one to consider. Spifer,ridden today by Andrea Atzeni, has been moving the right sort of waysince joining Marco Botti- certainly a trainer to watch when GreatLeighs reopens- and has cheekpieces on again today. Just ahead ofGreylami last time out over 11 furlongs, he's not really had a lot ofracing for his age. However, his three year old campaign gave somehints suggesting he can defy a 1lb rise. My percentage rating goes tohim- he is well suited to the surface and if given a ride hasdefinite place claims at the very least. Shamiris a course winner not seen for almost three months. A little bit ofearlier form suggests he gets the trip but emphasis so far has beenon speed. Although he is a multiple polytrack winner, this issomething of a step up in class and I suspect he won't make the frametoday. This could be the start of a campaign at slightly longerdistances so one to notebook for, say, the next three outings justlike Kaafel. Won adecent handicap on all weather and yard debut over this trip back inDecember but was way behind when last of six the next time out. Thatsaid, he evidently gets the trip on turf and with cheekpieces fittedtoday can not be written off for place claims. Summary The percentage shout goes to Spifer,narrowly ahead of Robin Hoods Bay. Both are very solid but Tinshulooks an interesting runner with excuses on both trips this year.Robin Hoods Bay reversed the form against Tinshu last time and thatlooks the strongest form on offer today. I expect a moderate pace here today and these two look the likeliest to benefit from that.George Guru looks better over a shorter distance and Irish formsuggests Super Say could be in with a shout. Betting Verdict: Spifer Tinshu Robin Hoods Bay Super Say Preference is for Tinshu. Market viewwill be important on Super Say.
  12. Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day Won the Sirenia Stakes at this level last year and seems a far better performer when away from turf. Had no sort of ride in the trial for this against Soft Falling Rain and the erratic Snowboarder. Mother was dual 1m winner and I think the step up in trip should suit given his running style. Only going EW because of the price- I actually expect it to lengthen when punters at home get on Fortify and Soft Falling Rain. Soft Falling Rain is trained by Mike de Kock.
  13. Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 15:55 Meydan (Dubai 2,000 Guineas): Glass Office, 6/1 Bet365 BOG, 0.5 EW Reasoning in a minute as I'm still typing.
  14. Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 12th Feb 2013 15:15 Southwell Thunderball 0.5pt EW 8/1 Stan James BOG Normally I’d be wary of any racing at Southwell- its reputation as a haven for low grade stuff and horses that only run well there is well deserved. To be fair, you get low grade stuff at a lot of the National Hunt courses as well and there are courses that have a number of real specialists. Still, its what punters like and provides plenty of viewing for everyone. This is a competitive looking Class 3 handicap, over 7 furlongs. First prize is a healthy £7,439 and its open to anything with a rating below 95. I’d query the going- allegedly its standard but the course has been relaid after the floods so I suspect it more like standard-to-slow until it gets bedded in again. There are quite a few course winners so that may make a difference, although unless this is flagged up most punters at home won't notice. Top weight Nazreef has an official mark of 94 and looks like vying to be fav. He’s not won since April 2012 but is four from four on the fibresand over a mile so needs some respect. Grabbed a fourth at Lingfield in November which is his only noteworthy effort since- he was second last last time out. Handicap wins have come before with headgear- he’s got a visor and tongue tie today as well- so could be worth considering today especially with whip friendly Robert Winston doing the driving.. We can’t say the same for Red Aggressor who returns from a five month absence today. Freddie Tylicki’s ride has won once from 14 starts- it doesn’t look like the handbrake was on in any of them so this doesn’t look like a gamble. The switch to fibresand could make it an interesting one to watch but probably best avoided. Thunderball was eighth of ten a few days ago at Lingfield but could be the answer to this puzzle. Has never won around here but looked really good when beating Ancient Cross at Doncaster back in October and is most definitely capable of performing in a higher class. Tactics last time out weren’t as aggressive as he seems to need to if he can get his head in front. Just one pound up from his last winning mark and has cheekpieces again today so place claims at the very least. Rae Guest’s charge Kickingthelilly broke her maiden over this C&D just over a year ago and a good run at Lingfield last time out suggests only a bit of tweaking is needed- a move back to the surface could be a good sign. Won second to last time out also at Lingfield following a six month break and could be in perfect condition to grab a place today. Punter friendly Luke Morris rides Docofthebay, who’s had a serious drop in class over the last year. Produced some decent efforts in big handicaps in the first part of 2012 but hasn’t actually won since grabbing the Golden Rose Stakes in November 2011. A second at Lingfield the time before last hinted at a return to form and with a positive jockey booking could be on his way up again given that he seems to be out of the handicappers clutches now but as the oldest in the race you have to wonder if he has that much to give. Shahzan, on the other hand, isn’t very interesting. Really terrible at Lingfield last time out when last of ten and 15 lengths behind Kickingthelilly. A couple of decent-ish runs before that hinted at a bit of fire in the belly but has a lot of prove especially on this surface. Not one likely to enter my assessment unlike Chookie Royale, ridden by Joe Fanning today. Looked really good when a beating Dubawi Island at Wolverhampton last time and a brace of good wins at Doncaster late last year suggest a possible step up in class later this year- he’s up four pounds today but if he gets a good ride that shouldn’t be a problem. Definitely one to watch in the run up to the flat season. Kung Hei Fat Choy didn’t run well at Kempton last time out but that looks like a blip- ran well the time before that and has two wins and a second from four on fibresand and a drop back in distance looks to have suited on recent runs. Hard to discount and although could maybe do with a pound or two less on his back looks favourably treated. Brian Ellisons runs Gouray Girl, with first time hood today. She was a real mixed bag for Henry Candy but this is the third run for a new yard- it is tempting to adopt an American perspective about third runs after a break or trainer change with this one as past performances hint at a return to decent turf stuff later in the year. Both recent starts have been poor but looked like starts of a new campaign and possible preparation for a gamble. Definitely has the ability to win a race off current mark but really needs to get in front. However, one for the notebook on any subsequent starts if placing today. Suggestion of like SP order: 1. Kickingthelilly 2. Nazreef 3. Thunderball/Docofthebay Betting Verdict: Kickingthelilly is obviously at the top of her game and is proven over the surface, always a question at Southwell. Nazreef is also clearly a winner here and will generate plenty of support but recent performance has left a question mark. Chookie Royale is upped in class and for that reason alone is probably worth watching only- the same can be said of Kung Hei Fat Choy who, like the French rugby team, seems to turn up and play when he wants. THUNDERBALL is the best value of all the likely contenders if he can get in front- well treated at the weights as well. Gouray Girl looks a notebook horse and may be worth a place bet if the price is better than 6.0 but otherwise I’d avoid.
  15. Re: Cheltenham Ante Post Competition Part 2 ~ Entries in by Feb 1st 17 days actually ;) Lol. I had some as well but was waiting to look at the stuff released yesterday. Given my recent record they'd probably all have come last!