BBOTD Friday 24th August

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Seen as I had a decent winner today, I'll put up my biggest-price fancy tomorrow in an attempt to peg back Boulder! :lol 2.00 York - 1pt win Tepmokea @ 25/1 (Hills) Elaine Burke's runner is not one of the flashy types in here or an unexposed 3yo but has plenty of ability and conditions should be spot on for him here. His last two wins came over today's c&d and the latter of those (May 2011) came off today's mark of 90. He gets 3lbs taken off his back by Michael Metcalfe so he's definitely weighted to have a chance and he hasn't run badly this season apart from when stone last in the Silver Cup here last time out. I backed him on his seasonal return here on his first run for this yard but realised afterwards that Karl Burke had stated that he would need the run and his prime target was the Ebor. However, he still ran a highly encouraging race to go down by 2 1/2l having travelled nicely and only fading at the death. That was off a mark of 93 and given he wasn't fully tuned up, he was a big eyecatcher for me. He was sent off favourite over 1m5f at Ayr in an attempt to get his mark up for the Ebor and to prove he stayed the trip. The described good ground in the formbook isn't accurate as it was softer than that and his stamina just didn't last out the extra furlong on soft ground. He is a horse who handles soft and stays 1m4f but stamina wouldn't be his strong suit in my opinion so it wasn't a huge surprise that he couldn't finish his race off as well as connections would have liked. He went for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock over a furlong shorter on soft next time and bounced back to run another great race, just run down inside the final furlong having led for the vast majority of the contest. His subsequent run here over 1m6f last time was a disaster as he just ran really flat but it's no great surprise given it came just a week after that tough race at Haydock and was probably just a desperate attempt to get his rating up sufficiently to make the Ebor field. Connections presumably realised it wasn't going to happen and reassessed for this race which I believe he's been laid out for. Any rain that comes is of no inconvenience, although I wouldn't like it to be totally bottomless, and he goes particularly well here as mentioned. The break should have freshened him up as he's had about 5 weeks off and is capable of running well fresh too. I like horses who are up with the pace at York which this one should be and stall 7 isn't a bad draw. Should put in a good stint from near the front and for that reason I think he'll be bang there with a furlong or two to race and I just hope he can keep it up late on.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August *Nocturnal Affair - York 3:40* I wrote this on my antepost thread for this horse a couple of weeks ago. I think it is important when antepost betting to try and get the horses that you know are being targeted for the specific race. I do know that all 3 of my selections here are being targeted at the race, so that is half the battle for me. Nocturnal Affair is my main bet as i feel he is way overpriced at 25/1. The David Marnane trained 6 year old had some great runs over in Meydan at the Dubai Carnival during the winter where he won a valuable handicap and in the Al Quoz sprint on the final night, he was 6th behind Ortensia, but was only 2 lengths behind that horse on the night, and was only about half a length behind Sole Power who was 2nd that night, so there is not much between them at all on the form line, and Ortensia and Sole Power are two of the market leaders for this race. He then had a 5 month break and Marnane ran him in a Listed event at Tipperary where it was a very nice 2nd to Inxile, and was not given an awfully hard time as it was a prep run, and that was highly encouraging. The trainer is quietly confident that he can snatch the Nunthorpe and i feel 25/1 will look a big price come the day. *0.5 Points e/w @ 25/1 VC BOG*

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August York 340 - Bated Breath 9/2 William Hill BOG For me this horse is the best sprinter in this hemisphere and as long as the ground stays good or firmer (which it should!) then he must surely open his Group 1 account tomorrow provided he gets a clean passage. There are a lot of good contenders but I think this one is simply a cut above the rest and with a top young jockey on board he should be right up there at the finish.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August

York 340 - Bated Breath 9/2 William Hill BOG For me this horse is the best sprinter in this hemisphere and as long as the ground stays good or firmer (which it should!) then he must surely open his Group 1 account tomorrow provided he gets a clean passage. There are a lot of good contenders but I think this one is simply a cut above the rest and with a top young jockey on board he should be right up there at the finish.

Can I scratch this one please BH... I need to find a more reliable weather forecast! York 200 - Rios Rosanna 20/1 EW Bet365 BOG This horse has ran very solidly so far this year and is one of only a few of these to have competed over the trip, at the track and in this class. The form of her most recent 3rd has worked out ok and while I wouldnt disagree with those that would say this horse is looking held by the handicapper, I think she has a decent shout of at least placing. The horses at the top of my list all have stamina doubts, and the unexposed horses that I like the look of are drawn out wide(apart from Willie Wag Tail but not for me at that price in a race like this) so I dont think she will have to necessarily out run her mark by much to make the frame.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 3:40 York: Nocturnal Affair 1pt win 25/1 Bet Victor There is not a great deal between some of the top handicappers and the Group sprinters, often it can be down to how the race unfolds and the sort of run you get. Nocturnal Affair is rated only a couple of pounds below Sole Power and Ortensia on official figures and the booking of Richard Hughes catches the eye. Nocturnal Affair ran pretty well in Meydan and after a nice break was freshened up a couple of weeks ago and lines up here ready to go. David Marnane does well with his raids and Nocturnal Affair looks overpriced.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August York 3.40 - Bated Breath 1pts win 9/2 PaddyPower This looks a really strong renewal but Im sticking by a horse I've followed for most of the season in Bated Breath. Now Im hoping the ground won't be too soft but if it remains on the good side has to have a big chance. I really liked the win in the Temple two runs back tanked through that race before finshing a narrow 2nd to Little Bridge in the King's Stand. It's a tough race to call but got to be involved for me.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 14:00 York Tepmokea - Has one over CD twice. Once in a class 4 on soft going off a mark of 85 and its last win. Which was CD on GF on a mark of 90 in a class 2. Seemed to be to high up in the weights after that and didn't show much until 3rd in Old Newton cup at Haydock. Ran over 14F LTO in a listed race where made all until being headed just over 2F out and then fizzled away. Back to last winning mark and 12F with trainer and claimer combination 2/4 in past fortnight. Maybe worth a EW punt 25/1 William Hill

[dannn17]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August York 3.40, Pearl Secret at 9/2 (William Hill) Needs to improve from its win in listed company lto but I think it will just do that and I'm expecting a big race here from Pearl Secret. Takes weight from Bated Breath and Sole Power and I'm not sure Bated Breath is at his best over 5f and Sole Power imo needs faster ground to win here on the evidence of his season so far. Ortensia is a danger but struggled in the two previous G1s so I'm willing to take it on. Pearl Secret possesses lots of speed and I just think over 5f which looks like its ideal trip it will be simply too fast for the rest of the field.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 2.00 York WILLIE WAG TAIL win @ 7/1 bog (William Hill) I really like the chances of this big 3yo colt by Theatrical trained by Ed Walker. Willie Wag Tail won his maiden at the second time of asking (5th of 12 on his debut at Kempton 4 weeks earlier) last October at Redcar (1m, good to soft) and did it in very good style staying on very strongly and beating a bunch of decent 2yos very easily, for example the second finished 3.25L behind him that day (was the favourite of that race) and has won twice since. Back on track at the end of May made his handicap debut at Sandown (1m2f, good to firm) off 79 and finished 2nd of 9, staying on after a slow start and coming just a bit short (3/4L behind the winner). This American bred colt is related to a US Grade 1 winner over hurdles and a Listed placed horse in France over 1m2f so he has stamina in his pedigree and showed that he would have improved once upped in distance in every of his first three outings. So it happened when he made his debut over 1m4f at Kempton in June (handicap off 82) and won in impressive style (smooth progress and staying on strongly in the final furlong). He beat (very easily) a number of good 3yos who have franked that form since: the second won last time out off a 1lb lower mark, the third bolted up last time out off the same mark, the fourth was beaten just a neck last time out, the fifth collected two seconds on his last two starts, the sixth won next time out, and the other 6 had won at least once on their previous starts. Upped 6lb for that nice success Willie Wag Tail raced off 88 23 days ago at Goodwood upped to a class 2 handicap again over 1m4f. He was extremely unlucky as he was badly hampered by Last Shadow who fell on the first bend and had a wall of 14 horses (was last of all) afterwards and was still last inside the final furlong with Buick struggling to find a gap. Stayed on well in the end even if wasn't asked any big questions and finished 8th of 16. That was a strong race with the winner able to win again under a penalty few days later, the sixth that has gone really close last time out and is a strong favourite in his race today (3.30 Newmarket) and plenty of good 3yos who had previously won more than one race. Good draw, good jockey in Jamie Spencer, stable in very good form, good weight allowance being a 3yo and hopefully a bit of luck in running should guarantee a big chance for my selection in what is a good quality handicap but few horses stand out.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August

2.00 York WILLIE WAG TAIL win @ 7/1 bog (William Hill) I really like the chances of this big 3yo colt by Theatrical trained by Ed Walker. Willie Wag Tail won his maiden at the second time of asking (5th of 12 on his debut at Kempton 4 weeks earlier) last October at Redcar (1m, good to soft) and did it in very good style staying on very strongly and beating a bunch of decent 2yos very easily, for example the second finished 3.25L behind him that day (was the favourite of that race) and has won twice since. Back on track at the end of May made his handicap debut at Sandown (1m2f, good to firm) off 79 and finished 2nd of 9, staying on after a slow start and coming just a bit short (3/4L behind the winner). This American bred colt is related to a US Grade 1 winner over hurdles and a Listed placed horse in France over 1m2f so he has stamina in his pedigree and showed that he would have improved once upped in distance in every of his first three outings. So it happened when he made his debut over 1m4f at Kempton in June (handicap off 82) and won in impressive style (smooth progress and staying on strongly in the final furlong). He beat (very easily) a number of good 3yos who have franked that form since: the second won last time out off a 1lb lower mark, the third bolted up last time out off the same mark, the fourth was beaten just a neck last time out, the fifth collected two seconds on his last two starts, the sixth won next time out, and the other 6 had won at least once on their previous starts. Upped 6lb for that nice success Willie Wag Tail raced off 88 23 days ago at Goodwood upped to a class 2 handicap again over 1m4f. He was extremely unlucky as he was badly hampered by Last Shadow who fell on the first bend and had a wall of 14 horses (was last of all) afterwards and was still last inside the final furlong with Buick struggling to find a gap. Stayed on well in the end even if wasn't asked any big questions and finished 8th of 16. That was a strong race with the winner able to win again under a penalty few days later, the sixth that has gone really close last time out and is a strong favourite in his race today (3.30 Newmarket) and plenty of good 3yos who had previously won more than one race. Good draw, good jockey in Jamie Spencer, stable in very good form, good weight allowance being a 3yo and hopefully a bit of luck in running should guarantee a big chance for my selection in what is a good quality handicap but few horses stand out.

There's not a chance Hills were 7/1 at gone 900!! They normally reset their prices at 830 and hold them for 5 minutes or so. Pricewise agrees with you!! Good News - Bet Fred open at 900 @ the moment and (in theory!) you could have got on @ 8/1 with them at the time of your post!! :lol Good Luck with it :ok

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 3.20 Ffos Las Prodigality - unfortunate loser in St Wilfrid consolation Ripon last weekend. Mastered all on his side of field but Fahey runner did him over on other side of field. 4lb well in and given by Pivotal, could handle slow ground today. Evs Bet 365 1 pt win

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 16.40 Wexford: Rigoletta @ 3/1 Bet365 Waited more than a year for this, Rigoletta finally stepping up in trip. She is a 10x maiden but barely runs a bad race, finishing almost always in the money. Most of these forms working out very well but it emerged that she has not enough speed to win over trips ranging from 6f to 1m. She's by Teofilo who sired plenty of good middle distance horses so far and even though her dam only won over 1m (Listed race though) the dam's sire won the Epsom Derby. So there is plenty to believe that Rigoletta has the ability to stay much further than one mile in addition to the way she raced and performed in all her outings. She steps now up to 12f for the first time and I think that will see her improving allot. She showed some good form recently when finishing 4th in a 6f Leopardsown maiden just 3/4 of a lengths beaten after break and a 2nd place at Dundalk where was just beaten by a neck. It's not a strong maiden I feel so I hope Rigoletta can finally get off the mark here today.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 555 kilbeggan khan tengri 4/1 bet365 wasnt stopping when he won at roscommon on monday and despite being hit with a penalty for that success will surely be hard to beat if in same mood. the step up in trip from 16 to 19 furlongs should also help, and when this yard have a winner they usually make hay with it pretty quickly...

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 2.00 York: Sky Bet Mobile Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (1m4f) The 3yo’s seem to be the ones to look at here in this competitive opener, I’m not sure the draw will help Silver Lime so will go with Willie Wag Tail who has a good position on the inside and hope that Spencer can do something similar as he did with Trade Storm for us on Thursday. Of the older horses I’ll give one last chance to Tropical Beat, he so often is the unlucky horse of the race and hopefully William Buick can find a clear path today and he can improve over this 12f trip. Selections: EW Tropical Beat 25/1 betvictor

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 3:20 Ffos Las - Prodigality - Back Many of these are inconsistent types but that can't be said of Prodigality who has been in the first 2 in each of his last 4 runs. Slightly unfortunate lto and he runs off the same mark again here today. There looks to be no obvious danger lurking so a reproduction of that run should see him win here 1pt win @ Evens Bet365 BOG

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 5.0 Ffos Las DANCING DUDE @sp Not posted for a while but couldnt let this one go.............. Dancing Dude is crying out for this longer trip and there are excuses for previous poor run. gone down a further 3lbs for that and the ground will be fine. Trainer/jockey combo has a great record at the track and i think the fav is on a high enough mark on its h'cap debut and trainer is only 1/20 with hcap debutants in last 12 months. simarian has a squeak 1st time after a break but there doesnt seam to be any money for it. Gonna stick to SP as i think DD may drift a little due to cash for the fav and may go off bigger than its current price of 7/2.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 1530 york 1 pt win ortensia 11/2 betvic should be a good race to watch with plenty in with chances,but the selection won well last time giving weight all around, if buick can keep the horse calm in the preliminary and goes into stall without any hassle then the race can get set up for her,plenty of early pace in the race,and good ground i would expect ortensia to take it up in the final furlong

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 3:40 York - Masamah - 0.5pts EW 25/1 Hills. Perhaps a bit silly taking on the class horses that are near the top of the betting but with the ground maybe not to their liking today it could pay to risk at small stakes the chances of this horse who finished 8th in this race last year but only 3 and a half lengths off the winner. Graham Lee on board today and Kevin Ryan has had a few winners this week including one at the meeting yesterday so worth taking a small chance on this horse who has a very good course record and the ground shouldn't inconvience too much whatever it's confirmed as at the time of the race having won in the past on good to soft and good/good to firm.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 3:30 Newmarket - Knightly Escapade Last run was here where he finished less than a length behind first place with Frankie and Ian Mongan has the ride this time. I see that as a positive as he has the best one year stats at both the track and with the trainer, whose sending a sole runner to the track. A distance winner, the Sakhee 4yo has previously won under Mongan and I'm expecting a solid run as suggested by his stallion stats. 10/1 betvictor - win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August York 3.05 - Dubai Prince - win at 5/1 bog bet365 This horse was a Derby favourite after an impressive 2yo campaign but had a set back and missed most of his 3yo season He's been a bit in and out ever since, obviously not lived up to expectations Got pretty much his ideal conditions today - 2/2 over todays trip, the overnight rain has taken any firm out of the ground which he doesn't handle, he's a CD winner and Godolphin usually send one to this race with a good chance

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August BATED BREATH 3.40 York. 1 point win. Classy and should be able to run his race. The trip and ground's fine and deserves to win another race of this nature. Big chance today. 9/2 Bet365 BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August

1530 york 1 pt win ortensia 11/2 betvic should be a good race to watch with plenty in with chances,but the selection won well last time giving weight all around, if buick can keep the horse calm in the preliminary and goes into stall without any hassle then the race can get set up for her,plenty of early pace in the race,and good ground i would expect ortensia to take it up in the final furlong

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, get in !

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August 16.15York: Bright Strike, 9/2 Betfred, 1pt win Bright Strike finished a close third on debut in a decent maiden over today's distance at Newmarket. There has been a number of nto winners from that race. John Gosden has a decent record at York and he has a great partnership with William Buick, who is having a good season.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August

5.0 Ffos Las DANCING DUDE @sp Not posted for a while but couldnt let this one go.............. Dancing Dude is crying out for this longer trip and there are excuses for previous poor run. gone down a further 3lbs for that and the ground will be fine. Trainer/jockey combo has a great record at the track and i think the fav is on a high enough mark on its h'cap debut and trainer is only 1/20 with hcap debutants in last 12 months. simarian has a squeak 1st time after a break but there doesnt seam to be any money for it. Gonna stick to SP as i think DD may drift a little due to cash for the fav and may go off bigger than its current price of 7/2.

The danger simarian wins easily even though it drifted to 12s..... :wall