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** Nap's Competition Result : 1st Barnsley Chop, 2nd Daisychain, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert, 4th Marmalade, KO Cup Tipsterix, Most Winners Calva Decoy**
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Edberg

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About Edberg

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  • Birthday 10/25/1976
  1. Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup 1st Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm Well done BH a big and deserved win for you ;)
  2. Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup 1st Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm 2.15 Haydock - ZERO MONEY win @ 13/2 (Paddy Power) 3.45 Ascot - PRIMAEVAL win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power) 4.00 Haydock - TROPICAL BEAT win @ 11/2 (Victor Chandler) Reserves: 4.50 Ascot - INTRANSIGENT win @ 8/1 (Bet365) 4.10 Leopardstown - BATTLE OF MARENGO win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power) Good Luck BH
  3. Re: BBOTD Friday 31st of August
  4. Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ August 2012 Very well done Boulder ;)
  5. Re: BBOTD Saturday 1st of September 2.30 Chester ROSSLYN CASTLE win @ 8/1 bog (Ladbrokes and William Hill) Maybe it could sound not so wise to have a rare full stake bet in a Listed Handicap at Chester supporting an unexperienced 3yo against 13 tough rivals and drawn in stall nr. 14 (widest of them all) but I do really like this colt and with the expected juice in the ground (at the moment it's officially good to soft and any more rain would help his cause) and the very valuable 10lb allowance per age being a 3yo I would have priced Rosslyn Castle at 4-5/1 so I'll have to go with full stake here. This Selkirk colt is trained by Roger Charlton and changed owners, formerly owned by Lady Rothschild, few weeks ago. Made a pleasing debut last September at Sandown over 1m (good) finishing 4th of 11 at 40/1 just 1.75L behind the winner Open Water (second to Main Sequence on his following start). He ran very green and was always last but started to make good progress in the last 2f and finished by far best of all (would have surely won with 1/2f more). Confirmed those promises with an easy win on his 3yo debut in April at Windsor (1m2f, good) when beating 3.75L the now 87-rated Ace Of Valhalla (trained by Sir Henry Cecil) who has gone on to collect 3 seconds and 1 win on his next/last 4 starts, with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Scottish Vespers, 2nd, 3rd and 1st on his next/last three starts and now rated 82, well beaten in 3rd almost 7L behind Rosslyn Castle and the Roger Charlton-trained colt performed all that drawing clear in very nice style only in the last furlong. On his next start (9th May) Rosslyn Castle was making his handicap debut stepping up in trip (1m4f) here at Chester on soft ground. That was a nice-looking class 3 handicap for 3yo and Rosslyn Castle had the worst possible draw in stall nr. 12 and was therefore a bit overlooked in the market and started just as a 7/1 chance. Never market was more wrong as the Selkirk colt loved the soft ground and the special track of Chester and came from last to first with an impressive progression in the last 2d to win easily. That was a very strong race for the category and Rosslyn Castle won giving 3.25L to Gabrial The Great who has won since and has reached a mark 11lb higher after that success, Martin Chuzzlewit was third beaten 4.25L and the Sir Michael Stoute-trained 3yo has gone very close on his next/last start (with first time visor on) one week ago in a class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting at York racing off the same mark of 88 in a race narrowly won by Kirthill (now among the favourites of the Cambridgeshire), Montaser was 4th 6L behind the winner and Montaser has won his next/last two start (last in impressive style when upped to 2m in a class 2 handicap at Ascot) and is now rated 15lb higher than that day at Chester and is the current co/second favourite of the Cesarewitch, and even the 8th of that race Third Half, beaten 14L by Rosslyn Castle that day, has run well since and has won his second last start. Upped 9lb for that success and gelded Rosslyn Castle made his reappearance 20 days ago stepping up in class to face a bunch of very good 3yos at Haydock (class 2 handicap over 1m4f) but on good to firm ground he couldn't be even close to his best and was left behind in the final furlong finishing 7th and last, tailed off (16L behind Gabrial The Great to underline how much he underperformed on that very sound surface). That was too bad to be true and as Roger Charlton stated after the race the ground was way too fast for his liking. Back on his favourite track and with a softish ground Rosslyn Castle should be able to continue his progress towards better goals (had been entered both in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in June and the Great Voltigeur at the Ebor meeting at York last week). As written above he faces 13 tough and way more experienced opponents here (just Naseem Alyasmeen of his age) but is open to big progress yet, the draw isn't a concern for a hold-up horse like him and the 10lb allowance being a 3yo seems to me a huge advantage at this stage of the year. As said the other bottom weight and 3yo of the race is Naseem Alyasmeen who ran a cracker to finish second in a small field Group 3 at Newmarket and consequently her mark has gone and off 96 she seems too penalised (21lb higher than her last success here at Chester in June). Meganisi has been a revelation (very interesting prospect over hurdles) on flat turf but should find it difficult to defy top weight in this company. Midsummer Sun was highly regarded (half brother to Midday for the same connections) but has been a touch disappointing so far and imho is way overrated off 102 at the moment. Area Fifty One ran very well last time out in the Ebor but that result could flatter him and I'm still not sure this is his best trip (would have backed him back at 1m4f on firmer ground since he is surely in form at still fairly handicapped) and would have surely appreciated a sounder surface (all his three wins came on good to firm). Tominator finished second in this race off a similar mark (1lb higher) one year ago and has been running not so bad of late (8th in the Ebor) but is still way below the level showed one year ago imho (had won the Northumberland Plate before finishing second in this race last year) even if the course and the softish ground could enhance his chances in this race. Quiz Mistress has been in very good form this season with 2 wins and a very close second off a 4lb lower mark in 5 starts. Her last effort has been below her best but in Group 3 company it was a very tough ask. If she would handle the track off stall number 2 and on her favourite softish ground she would still stand a good chance but probably not good enough to win such a competitive Listed handicap. Last but not least the favourite of the race Communicator. The 4yo trained by Andrew Balding suddenly showed all his best last time out over a 1f shorter trip here at Chester (good ground, two weeks ago). The 4yo had previously won only once in 11 starts (1m4f handicap in May 2011 racing off 78) and had been very constant of late for his new trainer Andrew Balding (joined this yard last winter) but that performance was absolutely unexpected. He won very easily coming off a very strong pace to beat the second Local Hero (my selection in that race) by 9L but that very strong pace could have flattered a bit that performance and upped 9lb in a way better race he could find it difficult to reproduce that kind of effort off 93 and at 5/1 he doesn't make a big appeal. So all in all a very strong confidence in Rosslyn Castle's chances in this very nice Listed handicap.
  6. Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Sept 1st 2.30 Chester ROSSLYN CASTLE 5pts win @ 8/1 bog (Ladbrokes and William Hill) Maybe it could sound not so wise to have a rare full stake bet in a Listed Handicap at Chester supporting an unexperienced 3yo against 13 tough rivals and drawn in stall nr. 14 (widest of them all) but I do really like this colt and with the expected juice in the ground (at the moment it's officially good to soft and any more rain would help his cause) and the very valuable 10lb allowance per age being a 3yo I would have priced Rosslyn Castle at 4-5/1 so I'll have to go with full stake here. This Selkirk colt is trained by Roger Charlton and changed owners, formerly owned by Lady Rothschild, few weeks ago. Made a pleasing debut last September at Sandown over 1m (good) finishing 4th of 11 at 40/1 just 1.75L behind the winner Open Water (second to Main Sequence on his following start). He ran very green and was always last but started to make good progress in the last 2f and finished by far best of all (would have surely won with 1/2f more). Confirmed those promises with an easy win on his 3yo debut in April at Windsor (1m2f, good) when beating 3.75L the now 87-rated Ace Of Valhalla (trained by Sir Henry Cecil) who has gone on to collect 3 seconds and 1 win on his next/last 4 starts, with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Scottish Vespers, 2nd, 3rd and 1st on his next/last three starts and now rated 82, well beaten in 3rd almost 7L behind Rosslyn Castle and the Roger Charlton-trained colt performed all that drawing clear in very nice style only in the last furlong. On his next start (9th May) Rosslyn Castle was making his handicap debut stepping up in trip (1m4f) here at Chester on soft ground. That was a nice-looking class 3 handicap for 3yo and Rosslyn Castle had the worst possible draw in stall nr. 12 and was therefore a bit overlooked in the market and started just as a 7/1 chance. Never market was more wrong as the Selkirk colt loved the soft ground and the special track of Chester and came from last to first with an impressive progression in the last 2d to win easily. That was a very strong race for the category and Rosslyn Castle won giving 3.25L to Gabrial The Great who has won since and has reached a mark 11lb higher after that success, Martin Chuzzlewit was third beaten 4.25L and the Sir Michael Stoute-trained 3yo has gone very close on his next/last start (with first time visor on) one week ago in a class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting at York racing off the same mark of 88 in a race narrowly won by Kirthill (now among the favourites of the Cambridgeshire), Montaser was 4th 6L behind the winner and Montaser has won his next/last two start (last in impressive style when upped to 2m in a class 2 handicap at Ascot) and is now rated 15lb higher than that day at Chester and is the current co/second favourite of the Cesarewitch, and even the 8th of that race Third Half, beaten 14L by Rosslyn Castle that day, has run well since and has won his second last start. Upped 9lb for that success and gelded Rosslyn Castle made his reappearance 20 days ago stepping up in class to face a bunch of very good 3yos at Haydock (class 2 handicap over 1m4f) but on good to firm ground he couldn't be even close to his best and was left behind in the final furlong finishing 7th and last, tailed off (16L behind Gabrial The Great to underline how much he underperformed on that very sound surface). That was too bad to be true and as Roger Charlton stated after the race the ground was way too fast for his liking. Back on his favourite track and with a softish ground Rosslyn Castle should be able to continue his progress towards better goals (had been entered both in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in June and the Great Voltigeur at the Ebor meeting at York last week). As written above he faces 13 tough and way more experienced opponents here (just Naseem Alyasmeen of his age) but is open to big progress yet, the draw isn't a concern for a hold-up horse like him and the 10lb allowance being a 3yo seems to me a huge advantage at this stage of the year. As said the other bottom weight and 3yo of the race is Naseem Alyasmeen who ran a cracker to finish second in a small field Group 3 at Newmarket and consequently her mark has gone and off 96 she seems too penalised (21lb higher than her last success here at Chester in June). Meganisi has been a revelation (very interesting prospect over hurdles) on flat turf but should find it difficult to defy top weight in this company. Midsummer Sun was highly regarded (half brother to Midday for the same connections) but has been a touch disappointing so far and imho is way overrated off 102 at the moment. Area Fifty One ran very well last time out in the Ebor but that result could flatter him and I'm still not sure this is his best trip (would have backed him back at 1m4f on firmer ground since he is surely in form at still fairly handicapped) and would have surely appreciated a sounder surface (all his three wins came on good to firm). Tominator finished second in this race off a similar mark (1lb higher) one year ago and has been running not so bad of late (8th in the Ebor) but is still way below the level showed one year ago imho (had won the Northumberland Plate before finishing second in this race last year) even if the course and the softish ground could enhance his chances in this race. Quiz Mistress has been in very good form this season with 2 wins and a very close second off a 4lb lower mark in 5 starts. Her last effort has been below her best but in Group 3 company it was a very tough ask. If she would handle the track off stall number 2 and on her favourite softish ground she would still stand a good chance but probably not good enough to win such a competitive Listed handicap. Last but not least the favourite of the race Communicator. The 4yo trained by Andrew Balding suddenly showed all his best last time out over a 1f shorter trip here at Chester (good ground, two weeks ago). The 4yo had previously won only once in 11 starts (1m4f handicap in May 2011 racing off 78) and had been very constant of late for his new trainer Andrew Balding (joined this yard last winter) but that performance was absolutely unexpected. He won very easily coming off a very strong pace to beat the second Local Hero (my selection in that race) by 9L but that very strong pace could have flattered a bit that performance and upped 9lb in a way better race he could find it difficult to reproduce that kind of effort off 93 and at 5/1 he doesn't make a big appeal. So all in all a very strong confidence in Rosslyn Castle's chances in this very nice Listed handicap.
  7. Re: Flat Racing Friday 31st of August 6.20 Wolverhampton OPUS MAXIMUS 3pts win @ 9/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) 14-time winner 7yo gelding who has last his way of late but that means he's now rated just 57, 4lb lower than last time out and this is his lowest handicap mark ever (rated up to 90 in 2009-10). Opus Maximus loves it here at Wolverhampton and his last win came over 9.4f here at Wolverhampton 8 months ago in a handicap racing off 75 so an 18lb higher mark than today. That was just the last of many good efforts he had at this course last Autumn (2 more wins and 4 seconds) and his last visit here (in March) was when still rated 74 over 7f which is too short a trip for him and his second and third last visits came in February was in class 4 handicaps over 9.4f racing off 77 (3rd of 9) and 76 (6th of 10). 5 months is a lot of time and surely Opus Maximus has lost that form but back to his favourite venue and with a possible good gallop to aim at (hold-up runner) he has got a good chance off this mark with a good and experienced apprentice jockey (Ryan Powell) on board (this is an apprentice handicap). Opus Maximus soundly beat today's favourite Brown Pete over this course racing off 10lb worse terms during the winter and hopefully he can confirm that performance on this favourable terms. Conore Dore's yard didn't enjoy a super period of form this summer but the horses seem back to form now and the Hubbert's Bridge-based trainer saddled 1 winner and 2 close seconds with his last 3 runners in the last fortnight.
  8. Re: BBOTD Friday 31st of August 6.20 Wolverhampton OPUS MAXIMUS 3pts win @ 9/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) 14-time winner 7yo gelding who has last his way of late but that means he's now rated just 57, 4lb lower than last time out and this is his lowest handicap mark ever (rated up to 90 in 2009-10). Opus Maximus loves it here at Wolverhampton and his last win came over 9.4f here at Wolverhampton 8 months ago in a handicap racing off 75 so an 18lb higher mark than today. That was just the last of many good efforts he had at this course last Autumn (2 more wins and 4 seconds) and his last visit here (in March) was when still rated 74 over 7f which is too short a trip for him and his second and third last visits came in February was in class 4 handicaps over 9.4f racing off 77 (3rd of 9) and 76 (6th of 10). 5 months is a lot of time and surely Opus Maximus has lost that form but back to his favourite venue and with a possible good gallop to aim at (hold-up runner) he has got a good chance off this mark with a good and experienced apprentice jockey (Ryan Powell) on board (this is an apprentice handicap). Opus Maximus soundly beat today's favourite Brown Pete over this course racing off 10lb worse terms during the winter and hopefully he can confirm that performance on this favourable terms. Conore Dore's yard didn't enjoy a super period of form this summer but the horses seem back to form now and the Hubbert's Bridge-based trainer saddled 1 winner and 2 close seconds with his last 3 runners in the last fortnight.
  9. Re: bbotd wednesday 30th I'm sorry for that but I had written yesterday that I was experiencing big (and they became huge) problems with my internet connection and you could notice that also because I had tipped Blue Shoes in the daily thread 1h and half earlier but couldn't write it down in this thread (paste and copy operation) soon after. The same goes for Indego Blues of course. I've been here for a while and I'm putting a big effort I guess. I wrote 235 BBOTDs and this has been the third time I wrote odds that had gone (the first two happened when in the first couple of weeks) and the same goes for all my tips, daily recorded here since 154 days. Unfortunately it happens and can happen again but I had written I had problems with the internet and there is no reason to steal 1/2 or even 2 points in a game let alone in what is made just for a personal record (Indego Blues' case). I probably don't get it as it should but it sounds a bit too harsh to read that while I read never a compliment for the good effort I put (30% yield and +400 in 5 months aren't bad figures and I keep doing it with joy and always trying to analyze the race at my best (not just two lines) even with my average English and the very short time at disposal). Anyway I was surely totally wrong with those odds and I do apologize for the mistakes. Will try to pay way more attention in the future. Thanks a lot for your big effort for this nice game and all the horse racing section of PL. Have a nice day, Davide
  10. Re: BBOTD Thurs 30th August 4.35 Lingfield HAADEETH win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365 and William Hill) My best bet of the day. Haadeeth can race here off a mark of 64 and gets Richard Hughes on board. The 5yo gelding trained by David Evans has always been a good sprinter and has been able to collect 4 wins and 4 seconds in 38 starts but he needs either a sound Polytrack surface or the word firm on the ground description to perform at his best and he needs of course his optimum sprinting trips 5 or 6f. His last 4 efforts have been over 7f and 1m and two of them in very difficult class 3 and 4 (today's race is a class 5). His last win came in April over 5f on good to firm ground at Folkestone (class 4 handicap) off a mark of 77 so he's 13lb lower now. The only other handicap sprint he could run after that success on good to firm ground was a class 3 at the end of May at Ayr (5f) where he ran well once again and finished 6th of 13 racing off a mark of 80. That was a particularly strong sprint for that level since the winner Diman Waters has run well since off his 6lb higher mark but especially Bosun Breese improved 20lb since winning three races in a row after that second in that race and most of the other runners, The Nifty Fox, Liberty Island, Le Toreador, Crimson Knot and Medici Time to name a few, ran very well since winning at least once and improved at least a few pounds in the rating. Haadeeth beat a few of them and was very close to the first 5 racing off 80. The 5yo gelding by Oasis Dream could well have lost a bit of his form but also in the past in was always in trouble off this high marks (rated up to 90) and never performed at his best over farther then 6f and on ground without firm on the official description. You can also make a case that his shrewd trainer David Evans knew that since Richard Hughes has been called for the ride now while the booking of Haadeeth's last 4 jockeys (Miss Zoe Lilly, Mr. Windsor Clive, Sean Levey and Stevie Donohoe) wasn't surely eye-catching. Decent draw in stall nr. 6 (can lead or seat just behind the leaders) and his price should be way shorter closer to the start if the rain stays away imho (it was already 8/1 a cople of hours ago) and I can't miss a full stake on a horse so well handicapped who gets finally back his perfect trip and ground with a top jockey on board and with the stable in very good form of late: 2 winners from their last 2 runners, already 10 in August (David Evans' best month since May 2011) and Richard Hughes is 6-35 in the last 5 seasons when riding for David Evans and 1-4 in 2012.
  11. Re: Flat Racing Thursday 30th August 4.35 Lingfield HAADEETH 5pts win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365 and William Hill) My best bet of the day. Haadeeth can race here off a mark of 64 and gets Richard Hughes on board. The 5yo gelding trained by David Evans has always been a good sprinter and has been able to collect 4 wins and 4 seconds in 38 starts but he needs either a sound Polytrack surface or the word firm on the ground description to perform at his best and he needs of course his optimum sprinting trips 5 or 6f. His last 4 efforts have been over 7f and 1m and two of them in very difficult class 3 and 4 (today's race is a class 5). His last win came in April over 5f on good to firm ground at Folkestone (class 4 handicap) off a mark of 77 so he's 13lb lower now. The only other handicap sprint he could run after that success on good to firm ground was a class 3 at the end of May at Ayr (5f) where he ran well once again and finished 6th of 13 racing off a mark of 80. That was a particularly strong sprint for that level since the winner Diman Waters has run well since off his 6lb higher mark but especially Bosun Breese improved 20lb since winning three races in a row after that second in that race and most of the other runners, The Nifty Fox, Liberty Island, Le Toreador, Crimson Knot and Medici Time to name a few, ran very well since winning at least once and improved at least a few pounds in the rating. Haadeeth beat a few of them and was very close to the first 5 racing off 80. The 5yo gelding by Oasis Dream could well have lost a bit of his form but also in the past in was always in trouble off this high marks (rated up to 90) and never performed at his best over farther then 6f and on ground without firm on the official description. You can also make a case that his shrewd trainer David Evans knew that since Richard Hughes has been called for the ride now while the booking of Haadeeth's last 4 jockeys (Miss Zoe Lilly, Mr. Windsor Clive, Sean Levey and Stevie Donohoe) wasn't surely eye-catching. Decent draw in stall nr. 6 (can lead or seat just behind the leaders) and his price should be way shorter closer to the start if the rain stays away imho (it was already 8/1 a cople of hours ago) and I can't miss a full stake on a horse so well handicapped who gets finally back his perfect trip and ground with a top jockey on board and with the stable in very good form of late: 2 winners from their last 2 runners, already 10 in August (David Evans' best month since May 2011) and Richard Hughes is 6-35 in the last 5 seasons when riding for David Evans and 1-4 in 2012.
  12. Re: Flat Racing Thursday 30th August 3.30 Lingfield PAHENTE 4pts win @ 9/2 bog (Bet365) 4yo trained by Tony Carroll that won in impressive style last time out over C&D landing a good gamble in the process. Since he was 1lb out of the handicap that day (7 days ago) the 6lb penalty means he will be just 5lb higher today. Stable in decent form (4 winners this month and 2 last week) with good record here at Lingfield (6-36 17% in the last 5 seasons and 2-7 29% this year on the turf course of Lingfield). Michael O'Connell is retained for the ride and the draw in stall number 3 should help to settle Pahente just behind the pace as last time out. The main dangers should be Celtic Charlie, Blue Zealot and Chasin' Rainbows. Blue Zealot's future will be over hurdles but connections are trying to take advantage of her lowly flat mark. After a long absence (almost 2 years) the 5yo mare now trained by Anthony Honeyball made a pleasing comeback (75 days ago) at Bath over 1m4f on good ground finishing 2nd of 11 off a mark of 46. Off a 1lb higher mark she has surely a good chance in this race but doesn't seem to me particularly gifted and well handicapped and should be again in the money but hopefully won't win this race. Chasin' Rainbows is the favourite of the race but he would need a bit more rain and was pretty disappointing last time out off this mark after a decent success the time before. Richard Hughes has got a very good strike rate when riding for Sylvester Kirk but I believe their chances are way underpriced here. Celtic Charlie is the other feather weight of the race (together with Blue Zealot) since he can now race off 47 on turf and was seen back to a good level of form last time out here at Lingfield on the AW finishing 3rd of 11 off 52 over 1m4f. Both his wins came here at Lingfield on the AW in handicaps off 46 and 49 in January and February (last time out with today's jockey Ian Mongan) but this 7yo gelding has never performed well on turf in 4 starts (maiden also over hurdles) and has been beaten 27, 24, 17 and 19.5L in his 4 efforts on turf, the last two being his second and third last outing in May and June. Off 47 and coming back to form he surely stands a chance in a race like this but doesn't seem a big danger imho. On a line through Rodrigo de Freitas Celtic Charlie would have a way better handicap mark in this race compared to my selection but my selection seems still able to improve (won with a good deal in hand last time out imho) and hopefully can seat just behind Celtic Charlie (who likes to front run) and I'd better be on a horse well proved on this surface and able to finish strong then on a well handicapped horse who has got still plenty to prove on grass and could tamely fade in the last couple of furlongs especially if not free to dominate at his own pace (something possible here). If the forecast rain doesn't change the ground too much (the word soft in the official description would be a big negative for sure) and if O'Connell is able to take a good place behind the leaders after the start I think Pahente will have a big shout in this race.
  13. Re: bbotd wednesday 30th 3.00 Carlisle BLUE SHOES win @ 4/1 bog (Boylesports) Blue Shoes has won only once in her career but finished 8 times second and 4 times third (20 starts so far) which proves how consistent this 3yo filly has been thus far. Finished second in 4 of her last 5 starts and recorded her best ever performance last time out over 6f on soft ground at Hamilton (5 days ago) when 2nd of 9 beaten just 3/4L by Celestial Dawn but she was the only one who had been up with the very strong pace since the start to finish in the top 6 at the finish, the strong favourite Planetex for example who was just ahead of Blue Shoes in the first part of the race badly faded in the last furlong to finish 8th and the same happened for Rock Canyon and Sinai. Celestial Dawn on the other hand had started very slowly and was pushed along to stay in touch at the back of the field but had the race served on a silver plate when they faded in the last furlong and she could produce her late effort easily overtaking tired horses. So that performance reads way better than the official result and the figures underline it since Blue Shoes recorded a TS of 69 and a RPR of 72 (both by far her career best). The handicapper upped her only 1lb but she can still race off 64 here. Perfect trip, perfect ground, top of her form and her main opponents all with some big question marks as Phoenix Clubs should be not at her best over this trip (too far for her) on this ground), Chester Aristocrat needs a new career best after he won by a neck off a 4lb lower mark last time out (form not franked so far and through a line with Ambitious Icarus the Richard Guest-trained should be a bit behind my selection) and has both the trip (a bit too short for his liking) and the ground (badly disappointed on his last two starts on soft) not on his favour, while Commanche performed not so bad the last twice over this trip on soft ground but still finished 4th and was beaten 6.25L and 5.5L and even if dropped 2lb more the 3yo gelding is back after a 51-day break for a stable (Bryan Smart) not really firing of late after a good first part of the month (1 winner in the last 19 days).
  14. Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 29th August 3.00 Carlisle BLUE SHOES 4pts win @ 4/1 bog (Boylesports) Blue Shoes has won only once in her career but finished 8 times second and 4 times third (20 starts so far) which proves how consistent this 3yo filly has been thus far. Finished second in 4 of her last 5 starts and recorded her best ever performance last time out over 6f on soft ground at Hamilton (5 days ago) when 2nd of 9 beaten just 3/4L by Celestial Dawn but she was the only one who had been up with the very strong pace since the start to finish in the top 6 at the finish, the strong favourite Planetex for example who was just ahead of Blue Shoes in the first part of the race badly faded in the last furlong to finish 8th and the same happened for Rock Canyon and Sinai. Celestial Dawn on the other hand had started very slowly and was pushed along to stay in touch at the back of the field but had the race served on a silver plate when they faded in the last furlong and she could produce her late effort easily overtaking tired horses. So that performance reads way better than the official result and the figures underline it since Blue Shoes recorded a TS of 69 and a RPR of 72 (both by far her career best). The handicapper upped her only 1lb but she can still race off 64 here. Perfect trip, perfect ground, top of her form and her main opponents all with some big question marks as Phoenix Clubs should be not at her best over this trip (too far for her) on this ground), Chester Aristocrat needs a new career best after he won by a neck off a 4lb lower mark last time out (form not franked so far and through a line with Ambitious Icarus the Richard Guest-trained should be a bit behind my selection) and has both the trip (a bit too short for his liking) and the ground (badly disappointed on his last two starts on soft) not on his favour, while Commanche performed not so bad the last twice over this trip on soft ground but still finished 4th and was beaten 6.25L and 5.5L and even if dropped 2lb more the 3yo gelding is back after a 51-day break for a stable (Bryan Smart) not really firing of late after a good first part of the month (1 winner in the last 19 days).
  15. Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 29th August 4.10 Catterick INDEGO BLUES 4pts win @ 6/1 bog (Bet365) With a few non-runners and my internet not working fine today I missed to write my reasoning before the price dropped so much but I still see a very good value on it and Indego Blues is gonna be one of my strongest fancies today. The 3yo gelding trained by Dandy Nicholls won twice in his short career (just 8 starts so far) and both times at 6f. His first success came over today's C&D in September and it was a decent maiden for 2yos where he easily beat his 9 opponents and among them there were a couple of good horses like Taffe (now rated 82 and winner 3 times since) who finished 2nd but 2.5L behind Indego Blues that day. His second and so far last success came at Pontefract on his third last start (2nd of July) again over 6f but this time on soft ground. It was a little classified stakes for 3yos with just 4 runners but Indego Blues won it in style (made all) and had the progressive Minalisa well beaten in second (1.75L behind him at the finish). Minalisa has collected 2 wins and 2 seconds in her five career starts so far, ran very well last time out when second behind Idler at Newmarket (Idler is the favourite of another race in today's card at Catterick) and the 3yo filly trained by Rae Guest is now rated 80. Upped to a mark of 78 Indego Blues struggled on his next start in a good quality handicap for 3yos at Haydock when 5th of 6 with Shirley Teasdale who had taken the place of Adrian Nicholls on his saddle that day and the gelding ran no sort of race last time out at Redcard when the trip (7f) and the ground (good to firm) weren't on his favour (raced off 76). Dropped to 74 for today's race Indego Blues seems well handicapped with the 3lb allowance being a 3yo another plus and back over 6f and very well drawn in stall number 2 with Adrian Nicholls in the saddle he should be able to get an easy lead and dictate from wire to wire hopefully. The main danger is his new stable-mate Llewellyn who has a totally different run style and will come strong at the finish but back in handicap off a mark of 72 this is not so easy for the 4yo who ran very well more than once this season but mainly in claiming/selling companies.