Cycling 2012

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Interesting that Sky were up there working, but they ended up with EBH leading and Cav 2nd with other a km to go. Cav was never going to win from there. Think Griepel not going for the intermediate sprints is looking a silly tatic now as he could be a lot closer to Sagan if he had of done.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 I have one question - any thoughts about the white jersey ? My favourite is Taaramae for his climbing technique , but i don't know his condition and how well he will ride in the mountains.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I think we saw a bit of panic setting in when the peleton began to realise the breakaway were close to staying away. Sky seemed to be marshaling it for a Cav lead in then suddenly it was just EBH leading him and as Addpea said, Cav ain't going to win from there. Wiggins had done his work and that was that. Signs that Sky are beginning to look like a team with 2 men down never mind one or is it just that Cav winning stages is second to shepherding Wiggins. When the cameras went back to the break away Greipel's team took it up but Cav obviously couldn't stay with them. He did really well to get back up to where he finished. Could be down to the sprained wrist from yesterday's crash and he may have needed another 24 hours for it to heal. I think it's also a toss up for which sprinter can get a place as well. I was lucky again today with Haedo after yesterday's Petacchi. Might do the same tomorrow if we can earth similar value. Greipel's two wins may also give us a marginally better price for Cav. Greipel's got to contest the intermediates now. Green Jersey getting very interesting.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Sagan is going to win the green jersey handy, he will clean up in the intermediate sprints next week. He is always going to finish from 4th to 7th in the real sprints, so where are the others going to get points back on him. Sagan would have been close for the win today, as that finish would have suited him perfect. Cavendish ****** up again, he didn't look to have that power that he normally has, losing those few kilo's haven't helped. Goss was poor again, he really should have won that, he ran out of steam.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

I have one question - any thoughts about the white jersey ? My favourite is Taaramae for his climbing technique ' date=' but i don't know his condition and how well he will ride in the mountains.[/quote'] If Taaramae is fit he has a great chance. The last week might catch him though. I'd rather take a chance on Kruijswijk @ 5/2, can climb with the best very good TT and has finished well up in a Grand Tour. Of the others Poels TT will let him down, Van Garderen will have to bury himself for Evans a few times so will lose times himself. Pinot e/w mightn't be a bad bet, he is a bit of an unknown, but was climbing brilliantly in the Tour De Swisse and his TT isn't bad either. You can forget the rest.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Cav tweeted this - S**t, tried to drop back a bit with 1km to go to get a run-up. Didn't work, as I left myself too much ground to gain Not sure Sagan will clean up next week in the intermediate sprints as we will get breaks and also most seem to be in a position where the sprinters should still be around. Think the last two days shows anything can happen as anyone can go down in crash. He is still favourite but I still have my doubts about him and dont think its going to be as easy for him as antogz thinks it is. Griepel has to go for the intermediate sprints now and I think he could be left to regreat not having gone for them the last few days. Every chance Sagan could be overtaken tomorrow in the points standings. If Cav gets the rub of the green I think he wins tomorrow. Only one head to head sprint so far and Cav won it so if they both get there tomorrow he will win it.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Stage 6 I'm going to sensibly give up on Tyler Farrar. Surprised that another of my each way steals, Mark Renshaw, hasn't appeared at the business end of any sprint as yet, not sure if he's been caught up in either of the crashes. Looking back at all the intermediate sprints so far he's challenged at all of them. 40s available with Bet 365 as 50s are with my new best mate, JJ Haedo, Hills & BetVic. I'll take 0.25 each way with both. My main bet however tomorrow, is to lay Greipel for the stage. Betfair haven't opened for business yet despite a number of the other firms doing so. He's almost vying for favouritism with Cavendish at around about 6/4. Never thought I'd see that this week. We'll give Cav his extra day to bounce back, this is the last opportunity for awhile for the sprinters and it's just too competitive for one sprinter whose name isn't Mark Cavendish to dominate 3 days in a row. Yes, I know, not sound reasoning but at that price laying has to come into it. Sagan. I think he'll have to win another stage from here to secure the jersey. Will have the opportunity I think on at least two to come but he won't have it easy. He'll also need though Cav, Goss & Greipel and others to keep sharing the sprinter spoils between them, rather than one or two of those dominating. Yes, anything can happen as we've seen and not necessarily in the last 3km either. Agree with addpea. Actually, this green jersey could be the making of the Tour, if we get a bit of a non event and Wiggins takes it, just by staying up reasonably close (I can't see him making any Contador style attacks) and edging out advantages on the TTs. Hope that's not the case and we see some fireworks at the weekend.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 @antogz tnx for your thoughts. I will search Taaramae for the white hope he will contribute. As for tomorrow im looking the graph for the stage right now and i see this suits perfectlly for Cavendish. It has little downhill at the end which is exactly what he needs. For me personally Greipel , won't make 3 in a row and the battle will be between Cav and Sagan in my opinion. Also one bet i like is Goss vs Sagan. 3.00 for Sagan @ bet365. I will try that too. Goss disapoint me at this year tour. Expect much more from him.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Id love to know how Goss has been disappointing. The only way he has for me was he was nowhere to be seen on the two stages Sagan won. He has won intermediate sprints and has had two top 3 finishes now. Thats pretty much what I expected from him ie he wont win a stage but will be up there everyday. Sagan has yet to beat him in a flat finish. Having seen the climb to the finish today I actually think Sagan might have got 2nd after all as you couldnt call it flat, not sure he would have beaten the winner though. All things being equal it will be between Cav and Griepel with I beleive Cav winning. I am thinking of backing Griepel for green though at 4/1 e/w the first 2.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 The finish suited Goss perfectly today and with Cav and Sagan not there he really should be winning it. He went for it today and found nothing. He was disappointing in yesterdays stage as well, with Cav gone again he really should be beating Petacchi and Veelers. If Cav doesn't win tomorrow he should call it a day. The finish is perfect for him. I like the 6/4 on him actually. I fancy Haedo myself at 50/1 with VC. He looked good today in a finish that wouldn't be his strongest. Tomorrow should suit perfectly. Veelers will be up there as well and 40/1 with bet 365 is big. 5pts Cav win 6/4 Hills 1.5 pts e/w Haedo 50/1 VC 1pt e/w Veelers 40/1 bet 365

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 I think its the simple case of Griepel being too strong for Goss. I guess its up to you if you call that disappointing or not, I dont. I was a tad disappointed he didnt do better yesterday but he seems to be getting himself in the wrong positions.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Betfred have got a good offer tomorrow. If your rider comes 2nd you get your money back up to £250.

[BillyHills]

Re: Cycling 2012 Well done Best Mate, another big priced place:clap One question guys as you seem to know your stuff, why has no one really mentioned Evans yet? I backed him outright at the start just because i thought the price on Wiggins was poor value and didn't think anyone else would contend the GC. When should i expect Evans to make his move or am i over rating his chances? Cheers, keep up the good work chaps!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Billy, the first week has been essentially all sprint stages. A couple of stages were too hard for the sprinters, but nowhere near hard enough to separate the guys who will be challenging overall. Tomorrow is the first big mountain stage, with a number of category 2 climbs and a category 1 Mountain Top Finish. This will be the first test for the big guys, but Wiggins in particular. As for tonight's stage, apparently there are 3 90 degree corners in the last 3km. As such I think there might be a few more crashes and lots of jockeying for position.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Thanks BillyHills That's because we've been concentrating on things this week stage by stage and they've been mostly flat with one other rolling stage that suited a classics specialist. Peter Sagan won that. A lot of people don't like these stages with the exception of the ends which do tend to be explosive, as not a lot happens on the 200km or so to the finish, give or take the odd crash or puncture. That's when the helicopter and the panoramic views of the French countryside come in really handy and I do find the commentary interesting enough not to dose off. Another flat stage today, then we go into the mountains for the first time on Saturday and it's mostly mountains of varying severity over the next week. We should then see how things begin to pan out for the GC. On the positive side for Evans, his team have played impressively this week keeping him out of trouble, the first week of the Tour always is very nervy and accidents are the norm causing some high profile abandonments, Wiggins last year on stage 7 a notable example. The general consensus is that all Evans and Wiggins need to do is to remain consistent and stay close to the action on the lumpy stages, perhaps not even having the need to actually win a stage. Both are also very good time trialists and that sets them apart in the odds from the rest of the field as we have unusually over 100km of time trialing on this Tour. One or two of the other climbers are going to need to try and blow the race open on the mountains. They might be able to do that once but I doubt they can get away with it more than that. We should have a clearer picture over the next 3/4 days of where this Tour is going. I'm holding back on my GC bets until I see what happens over the weekend.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 For me Evans has to gain time on Wiggins at some point because he will lose more time to him in the two time trials. I have to say I dont think Evans can drop him in the mountains, but we shall see.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Evans needs to take time from Wiggins in the mountains, starting tomorrow. I certainly think Evans will drop him and it could be as early as tomorrow. The climb doesn't suit Wiggins at all and it is definitely a place Wiggins can lose time. The first TT is going to be very important for Wiggins, he needs to get close to 2 min over everyone else. I don't think he will gain much in the last TT, as Evans will be getting stronger as the Tour goes on, and Wiggins is well known to be not so good in week 3. Nibali, Sanchez and Co need to attack him on the descents and they have every chance to do so. Wiggins descending is no where near as good as Nibali or Sanchez and it should be exploited. Wiggins is prone to an off day in the mountains as well, Anglira in the Veulta last year and Morzine in 2010 Tour come to mind. I couldn't back him at the price he is to be honest.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 I'm a little surprised that people think Wiggins is going to be so strong in the mountains. He's never really starred in them and even when he was fourth he was still dropped on one of the multi mountain stages. Even the second stage that Sagan won, Wiggins was still a fair bit off the others. I know he was involved in the crash, but where he was the time it happened was still further behind Evans than he should have been.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Im a little surprised people think Wiggins isnt going to be so strong in the montains. Hes in the best shape he has ever been and that 3rd in Spain came after he had been injured in the Tour so it was a pretty good performance in my view. He might lose a little time to Evans in the mountains but in my view it wont be enough. None of the three who finished above him when he was 4th are here, he is in better shape and the route suits him even better. I dont expect him to win a stage in the mountains but he wont need to all he will have to do is follow Evans and Evans isnt exactly known for attacking. I think that the tatics of Sky and Wiggins were to stay off the front to save energy but they rightly changed that yesterday.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 In today's stage its been reported that Griepel has hurt his finger in a crash before we got live pictures.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012

Also one bet i like is Goss vs Sagan. 3.00 for Sagan @ bet365. I will try that too. Goss disapoint me at this year tour. Expect much more from him.

Outstanding perfomence from Sagan at the end and he earn me good money. He is the next Cavendish for sure , maybe even better. Next year we will see.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 What a strange day. Greipel clearly not at his best after the 2 crashes as Sagan would not have beaten him otherwise. Sagan has won green now as long as he gets to Paris. Cav is having some rotten luck this Tour. No surprise to see Gesink in a crash again as he seems to do his best to find them. Some big names losing big time today.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 Yeah , Frank lost like 2 minutes and he is the big loss for me today in this year tour. Someone see what makes the crash cuz they didn't show any replay ?

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 The pictures were elsewhere so dont know what caused it. Must have happened near the front though as Sky were near the front and 3 of their riders were caught up in it. Silly crash given it was a flat road just should not have happened.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Yeah, absolutely crazy stage today, with Valverde, Schleck, Gesink, Hesjedal, Brajkovic all losing time. Gesink was injured too so you can put a line through him to do anything on a stage as well. Sagan looks to have green pretty secure as long as he can keep avoiding crashes. Will be interesting to see what happens from here on in. Wiggins and Evans didn't need any invitations to be attacked and with so many climbers losing time today I anticipate some much more daring attacks this year. Interesting for the stages that has some of the earlier mountains too. Will wait for injury news as some riders lost inordinate amounts of time (Hesjedal down 13mins) but will hopefully be some betting opportunities tomorrow.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 The thing is Wiggins and Evans can let those who lost time attack now as they arent threats anymore. They just have to keep them under control so they dont gain a stupid amount of time. Cav has tweeted he punctured in the crash so he missed it but then got really unlucky in getting a flat tyre.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Yeah, it definitely helps Wiggins and Evans that they don't have to chase some of these riders, but it can definitely change the dynamics of stage betting and KOTM betting. I'm sure there's a few opportunities to be had as a result. Waiting on injury news still but am pretty sure Hesjedal was ripped to shreds. I've put a line through him and Gesink for stage stuff and have a keen eye on Kruiswijk injury news as he shapes the White Jersey market. Also patiently waiting for stage odds tomorrow -- I'm guessing they might be delayed somewhat until the wash up of today's crash is better understood.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Apparently at least three of the riders who finished are on their way to hospital but not sure who yet.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Fair play to Sagan, certainly takes his chances although a fully fit or even a willing Greipel may have had the edge on him. We'll only find that out when both have no other excuses. The ease by which Sagan went around Van Hummel when the latter's chain snapped was sheer artistry. No excuses for Goss though, today was his best chance and its looking places at best as on a blemish free day he'll have Cavendish and the other two to get by. I hope they do all continue the intermediates though and it remains competitive. Should be some nice prices around for tomorrow's stage. If they're unscathed after today there's going to be some who are no longer realistic GC contenders going for glory. Attack merchants such as Hoogerland and Rui Costa spring out, very impressed with Costa this season. No prices up yet. GC. I've taken a point win on Nibali with Betfair, 15s today and hope I can trade out of that over the course of the next week plus I've laid Wiggins for a 1pt as well. Glad I didn't touch the GC until this week of sprinting was over, as I'd have lost on Gesink. I want to keep Evans on my side as I think he can benefit from Wiggins on the climbs.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Goss should probably have won today, but at least he is pretty much certain of a top 3 in the green now as long as he gets to Paris.