Cycling 2012

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Haven't had much time for any bets/write ups the past few days, but I'll have a go at tomorrow's stage which looks like a perfect one for a breakaway to succeed. Since Menchov blew up today and is now well down the GC, there's a fair chance that Katusha will just switch to chasing stage wins and Vorganov (251 ew with Bet365) might have the requisite skill set to succeed. Decent on the steeper stuff and a strong aggressive rider as shown by his recent Russian National RR win, I reckon they're not bad odds for an each way shout. Fingers crossed that he's let off the leash.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Haven't had much time for any bets/write ups the past few days' date=' but I'll have a go at tomorrow's stage which looks like a perfect one for a breakaway to succeed. Since Menchov blew up today and is now well down the GC, there's a fair chance that Katusha will just switch to chasing stage wins and [b']Vorganov (251 ew with Bet365) might have the requisite skill set to succeed. Decent on the steeper stuff and a strong aggressive rider as shown by his recent Russian National RR win, I reckon they're not bad odds for an each way shout. Fingers crossed that he's let off the leash.

I agree I do think it is set for a breakaway to succed tomorrow as I cant see why anyone would chase it. Not a stage for me given thats the case but good luck with your tip.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

Well done everyone who was on Rolland today. A deserved win after a super tough stage. BTW please please please can we have less drugs chat - there's more than enough of that on a certain other forum without it intruding here.

Agree myself, this is a betting site and that should come first. It's winners we should be picking. I think a breakaway will stay away myself. I got Moncoutie at 100/1 with PP earlier. I think he has a good chance. He took it easy today and should be in the break tomorrow. He will have no problems getting over the climbs and can be aggresive if he wants to. Someone from AG2R has to do something tomorrow, i think Kadri 100/1 was one of the few AG2R men that did nothing today, so maybe he is eyeing tomorrow's stage. Again he can climb likes being in breaks and the 100/1 with bet 365 looks generous. Going to take a chance on Kroon 200/1 with bet 365. Again it's just a hunch took it easy today, and Saxo will have someone in the break. If he can get in the break and can get over the climbs, he is an aggresive rider and could go very well.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Going to agree with Antogz here, I think Kroon is very attractive E/W. I believe the profile of the stage, with no decisive climbs at the end, but a cat 3 hard enough to put doubts in the minds of the sprinters, will see the break having an excellent chance of winning today. Those who will try for the break I expect to be very large, but based on the finish I think there's a few long shots who have nice winning qualities and a bigger name who I think is very overpriced. Karsten Kroon E/W 1/4 1-2-3 @ 201 Bet365 He's a good one day rider with strong results in races like Amstel Gold. I think he is very big odds when you consider he's a former stage winner and is often very strong in the final parts of a tough day's racing. Nick Nuyens E/W 1/4 1-2-3 @ 151 Bet365 Won impressively last year in a fairly big event beating the likes of Chavanel and Cancellara. He's a very strong rider in the finish of a classics style race and I just think he is really too long given his qualities and the stage profile. Phillipe Gilbert @ 24 Betfair I think this is an outstanding bet. He's not in the best of form, but tonight he shouldn't have to beat the likes of Sagan and Boasson Hagen. His failure to win an early puncheur stage I think will have him motivated to try and win from a break and I think tonight's profile suits him well. There's a cat 3 mountain he can attack from and any break that he is successful in making, chances are he'll be among the best sprinters in it anyway. For me this is another great value bet.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Just seen the Stage has already started!! Looks like a lottery. I'll wait and see how the breakaway works out and who's there after the early 2 climbs, might then have a couple of fun selections after that and see what I can get on Betfair.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 The market is very Peter Sagan friendly and with 140km to go, he's now sub 3.00 for the win. Yes, the peleton looks like catching this breakaway with Sky keen to dominate but with so far to go, even if it is caught, it's quite likely another breakaway could form. Could be Sagan making himself really sure for intermediate points although the sprint is a long way off. I think at those prices and so far out, he's worth a 1point lay.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Sagan has been taken back - now 18s and rising. I'm trading out a bit of my bet shortly for a free bet. We don't normally get this good liquidity on Betfair for cycling, long may it last. Peleton seemed to have slowed it up, looks like this stage is over and there's still 100km to go.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 I know we agreed no more drugs chat, but I felt it right to share the piece that Wiggins has written in today's Guardian which is a cracking read. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/jul/13/bradley-wiggins-dope-drugs?CMP=twt_gu

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Uphill finish not going to help Millar who's been trading as favourite for sometime now. Trading at sub 3.00, I'm going for another 1pt lay.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Superb from Millar. Surprised you laid him BM as he was the only one who really had the experiance and the know how on how to win a stage. That one the day for him I think as he knew exactly what he was doing.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 What do I know, got that completely wrong, only a single point loss in the end. Really thought Millar would be dropped, thought the finish would be a bit steeper than it actually was, bet the other 3 feel really foolish though, comfortably left the two leaders get a run on them. Yes, experience did for them.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Just said in the interview that he knew he was going to win today and I bet he was loving the fact he had those 4 with him. Rode really well earlier on in the stage as well to make sure Sagan didnt make it across.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Interest stage today and surprised to see Cavendish so long given how likely a sprint finish is. The other big factor today though is that crosswinds could come into play. If they do I imagine Cavendish is the one sprinter who wont miss out due to being part of the Sky team, who will be super attentive to them. I do think Goss might finally win a stage this week though so not sure which I'll take yet. I have taken a couple of small outsiders though. Sylvain Chavanel 51 Boylesports It's Bastille Day so he is sure to try something. There's a cat 3 climb towards the end he can try off and if the peloton is decimated by winds I'm sure he'd attack at the end. Not too likely but just think he's going to try something today and want a little bit on him. Gregory Henderson 401 E/W 1-2-3 1/4 Bet 365 Mostly going for the place value here. Greipel hurt his shoulder last week and I'm not sure too sure how he's feeling. Probably okay given he's continued on but I don't think it's unthinkable that he's not feeling great and gives the Kiwi the nod to go for it himself. The other main factor is that strong crosswinds are predicted today and when this happens you'll often see some main sprinters miss out and a rag tag collection of opportunists, big sprinters and lead out men contest the stage. Again, another small bet, but 100-1 for Henderson to place appeals to me given today's permutations.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I put a price request in last night for Cavendish, 2pts win at 7/2, 4.50, on Betfair, more in hope than anything. Got taken up as well. Most bookies have him either side of the 2/1 mark. He's now back down to 3.75, roughly 11/4, on Betfair. I'm happy with that. After today, there are 3 more flat stages. Cavendish wins today, that'll be the last we see of any 2/1. He loses, then I think for the next flat stage I'll be able to better the 4.50. I was deliberating between him and Greipel who I can't see out of the top 3, but my money management head is telling me that's no value to be backing him each way as well if I'm so keen on Cavendish. I'll be surprised now if Cav can't pick up two more stages between here and Paris. Greipel now trading just shy of evens on Betfair for the top3 place, overnight some lucky punter nabbed 3.30, that's in excess of 9/4, for the place, now that is value considering he is a best priced 5/1 this morning, generally 7/2, 4s. Cav has shown time and time again he has the edge over Goss and Greipel. The only small doubt is how well has Sagan improved, on a straight one on one sprint with Cavendish. If we don't get to see today, then we surely must before the Tour is out. I still think Sagan is at least a couple of wheel lengths behind. At least throwing the new wonder kid into the mix has given us some value on Cavendish. The Tour is the only time I see any decent liquidity on Betfair for cycling, only to be expected I suppose.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 That 3.30 on Betfair for Greipel to place will rank with me anyway as one of the all time best value bets I've seen, second only to Peter Sagan's 8/1 on the first week. I wouldn't be at all surprised now if Cavendish hits 4/1 for the next stage, on Betfair - can't see the traditional bookies being so generous. Perhaps it might not all be just set up for Cav on the final circuit of the Paris stage being led in by the Sky train. Probably so, but I'm still going to put my money where my mouth is and follow him throughout now, for the remaining 3 flat stages. Love to see him get another one, on his own as he did on stage 2, without a team.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Vorganov (251 ew with Bet365)

Well that was very frustrating when he just couldn't quite hold on to the group of five at the top of the second climb who went onto contest the win. Dull stage though from all accounts so maybe I dodged a bullet in not having to watch the rest of the stage after that. Into the mountains again tomorrow and the ~15km of flat after the final descent might deter too much GC action, so a couple of picks for the break. Caruso (251 ew with Bet365), similar to two days ago Katusha will try and get people in the break since Menchov is out of the GC and Caruso can climb a bit and, if I'm not getting him mixed up with his namesake at Liqugas, has a decent kick on him. Also Kashechkin (201 ew with Bet365) impressed me in the Dauphine with his descending, but a lot will depend on how Kessiakoff goes tomorrow as I'm sure he'll be after KotM points. However I dont see why they wouldn't try to put two people in the break and if Kess doesn't have the legs maybe Kash could try and stop others scoring points. I'll also be keeping an eye out for the price on Kern (no price up yet for him).

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 I see the Kern price is now up, but unfortunately he's at 26 - so no bet there.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Im not sure it was a great value bet and I suspect you would have got a bigger price in running as his price to win certainly drifted out. The last climb was really tough and I had my doubts about Cav getting over it and thus had doubts about Greipel getting over it. What is surprising was that he did get over it and once you knew that he was a bet especially as he only had Sagan to beat. Sagan went pretty short in running as it looked like he was the only one of the sprinters who had got over the climb. Luckily by the time I went to actually have my bet Greipel appeared and so backed him instead. If people do lay Cav at 4/1 then they are plain stupid. He has only been involved in one sprint so far and he won that. I dont see how him not winning today should make any difference to his price.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Betfred are going four places again and are also 12/1 the field. Its another lottery day for me though so no bet.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Very interesting market. The break stages are the ones I enjoy most for the fun of picking out riders in the break at value odds and there does actually appear to be a bit of value on offer tonight, perhaps in part due to Luis Leon Sanchez being so unexplainably short. If there weren't any flat portion and it was an all downhill finish I could easily back LLS, but with 20km of flat or so after the descent finishes E/W Johnny Hoogerland @ 101 1/4 1-2-3 Paddy Hoogerland is a very aggressive rider who has been unusually quite so far. From all reports though, he has marked this stage as one to target for the win and the odds available I think are just outstanding. When you consider Luis Leon is 15s, Voeckler 19s, Casar 26s, then I don't understand how Hoogerland can be this much longer. Obviously he's not a previous stage winner so I can justify him being longer, but no more than 34-41s. Best stage betting value I've seen all tour. Will probably take a couple more as I see a few nice odds about but the Hoogerland bet really does stand out for me.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 It's a good example as to how it is difficult to price up stages such as this. I think firms have over reacted to Luis Leon Sanchez little attempt towards the end yesterday and his post race comments that he felt good in the legs. They're assuming he is going to be in a break. If he is then this price is value, if he isn't he'll be double those odds. I'd rather wait and see first. Hoogerland still at 100s with Both Powers and Betfred and if they're 4 places that's a great each way bet. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rein Taaramae is given room to stay clear now he's so far back, as he won't be a threat. Rui Costa and Fedrigo perhaps but I could name four others and still not get it right. Looks too difficult. Nibali will probably try something and Sky will have to neutralise that. If a break goes off with a Liquigas rider in it, then we can expect that. Slight chance of the Sky train beginning to run out of puff as they've been going at it now for days. I can see them perhaps losing seconds but not minutes. The long run in gives them ample chance to chase back. All I ask is to be entertained.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 I have Stage 16 marked as a Nibali stage and in a big way. That is made for a descender to win, but the 20km of flat at the end of toward's stage tends to take it away from a pure climber to one who needs to either be adept at sprinting or strong enough to make a move in the closing kilometers. Adding another decent bet and a handful of minimum stakes selections. Sylvain Chavanel 42 Betfair - Simply overpriced. No way should he be any longer than Casar, Voeckler or Luis Leon. He's got good form as evidenced by his time trial results and it's super unusual for him not to feature in a break in a tour. I'm sure he'll rectify that this week and tonight looks a great chance to do that. Minimum Stakes on: Peter Velits (80), Rein Taaramae (67), Simon Gerrans 60 and Pierrick Fedrigo (50) and also Top 3 (18). All with Betfair except for Rein who is with Betvictor. Definitely Hoogerland as my main bet tonight though. I agree that it's hard to have a big favourite in a stage like this as it's by no means a certainty to make the break, but I just think the odds on Hoogerland and Chavanel are wrong. Luis Leon Sanchez is just way too short compared to riders who are equally well known for looking for and winning from breaks: Chavanel, Voeckler, Casar, Fedrigo.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Lol, looks like after all my comments about it Sanchez is going to make the break anyway.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 They have just said that Chavanel has been antibiotics the last few days and hasnt been well.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 That explains his quietness these last few days then. Thanks for the update. Crazy scenes on today's stage too. Not sure what is going on with all these flats but credit to Wiggins and Sky for not pushing on.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Being reported that someone threw tacs onto the road at the top of the final climb, disgraceful!

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 After timing I know but when I saw he had got into the breakaway, I went in 1pt each way Luis Leon at 8s. Then I felt Sagan wouldn't survive with them on the ascent, so laid him for 1 point at 4.50. Disaster then as he did so, and went as low as 1.4 when he was part of the two man lead. The man surely is devastating, and only 23, but my pocket is glad today he couldn't finish it off. Just seen this on Cycling News 'Funny how lead group didn't puncture. Sagan eats nails, and dropped a few?' It does look like some bystanders put something on the road after the leading group went through. All in all another stage ticked off for Sky. Even before tackgate nothing was happening on the final climb, Sky had it well and truly covered. Some sight as well seeing Cavendish leading them onto the mountain.

[Darran]

Amazing how cav got over a big climb like that today and not yesterdays. Just shows the pace they go is crucial. I nearly backed sagan after it was clear he was going to get back in touch, but had a feeling someone would attack him as they all knew he would win if they didn't. Some great trading opportunities for anyone that way inclined. It's a shame someone felt the need to try and sabotage the race but these things are obviously hard to police as the boat race also showed this year. Can't help think the Olympics won't go by without something like this happening. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I'm staying on the Cav Express although Bet 365 went an initial 9/1 last night, but only for a very short time. 3s best now and that's with Paddy Power. That 9/1 looks like being the second major rick of this Tour. I put an offer up at 5s overnight on Betfair but that wasn't taken and he's stuck around the 11/4 mark only with them. Greipel must be the only alternative but he's taken over the Cavendish mantle of being the mostly sub 2/1 favourite for stages such as these. Surely Sagan can't go in again and after yesterday's superlative attempts must now be beginning to flatten, he admitted to as much post race yesterday. Goss has been a perennial disappointment all Tour and can't be approached with any confidence. Again, all we need Cav to do is exactly as he did 2 weeks back now on stage 2, get a lead in from behind Greipel's team. 3pts win Mark Cavendish Paddy Power @ 3/1 As I've been really impressed with the in running liquidity on Betfair I'm going to have a dabble now on Sagan, 10.50, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, 60.00. I don't think either will win but I'm banking on both trading at a lot less than those prices and I'll trade out if I can do so. My reasoning is I think that both could play a part in proceedings today at some point. If they do, then the market will react.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 I am also on Cav at 3s. Surely that 9/1 was a mistake? I find it hard to see Bet 365 who are good at pricing up cycling made a rick like that. As I said before Cav has only been involved in one sprint so far which he won and will be desperate to be involved in a sprint today and beat Griepel and Sagan. Its Griepel's birthday I believe so he will be keen to win but given he only just beat Sagan the other day I wonder if he is still feeling the effects of his injuries and isnt at his best. Sagan has yet to beat either in a flat sprint bar when Griepel was injured so no reason why he or Goss for that matter should do that today.