Cycling 2012

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Happy with that getting 2nd and 3rd behind Sagan.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 I have some questions - what do you think about Samuel Sanchez to be the top climber ? With the absence of Andy and Contador and from i've watched last year it seems that he have what it takes do accomplish that. And my second question - do you think Cavendish can wear the green jersey at the end like last year ?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012

Happy with that getting 2nd and 3rd behind Sagan.

Nice work, particularly on Cancellara. A bit unlucky that he couldn't go on to win it -- wonder how many stages Sagan will be able to go on and take now, as that was a much harder finish than I was expecting to see. Interesting to note Froome lost 1"25 today. Wonder if he got caught up in something or just didn't have the legs.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Nice work, particularly on Cancellara. A bit unlucky that he couldn't go on to win it -- wonder how many stages Sagan will be able to go on and take now, as that was a much harder finish than I was expecting to see. Interesting to note Froome lost 1"25 today. Wonder if he got caught up in something or just didn't have the legs.

Once Sagan was on his wheel though there was only going to be one outcome and EBH used up to much energy trying to get across so he wasnt going to beat them. As much as he did well to spot the move he didnt exactly have to work that hard to win in the end. I think he will find things a lot tougher tomorrow in a big sprint. Surprising about Froome he must have the legs as he did well yesterday so you can only think he got caught up in something. Not good for anyone who backed him to finish top 10 or higher though. Interesting to see Gesink and Ryder finish so high up as well.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012

I have some questions - what do you think about Samuel Sanchez to be the top climber ? With the absence of Andy and Contador and from i've watched last year it seems that he have what it takes do accomplish that. And my second question - do you think Cavendish can wear the green jersey at the end like last year ?

King of the Mountains always seems just to hard to pick. Sanchez and Hoogerland if I was pushed but I'd rather back against Cavendish for the Green Jersey. He's focussed on the Olympics and picking up a handful of stages at best here. Sagan does look the real deal but this is a 3 week tour and Goss isn't out of it, looks like he'll be after nicking intermediate sprint points as well.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Froome punctured 5km out.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

King of the Mountains always seems just to hard to pick. Sanchez and Hoogerland if I was pushed but I'd rather back against Cavendish for the Green Jersey. He's focussed on the Olympics and picking up a handful of stages at best here. Sagan does look the real deal but this is a 3 week tour and Goss isn't out of it' date=' looks like he'll be after nicking intermediate sprint points as well.[/quote'] Cav clearly looks interested in green after contesting the intermediate sprint and he didnt look best pleased Goss beat him either. I must admit even I was a little surprised to see him contest it as strongly as he did. I reckon he will give it a good go this first week and see where he is after that as regards the green jersey.

[Crouch Potato]

Froome punctured 5km out.

Thanks for the update. On Cav for green, I'm not too sure how it will go. Was definitely surprised he contested the intermediates though. As for Sanchez KOTM, I'm not sure how well Sanchez is. He hurt his ribs a couple of weeks ago in a crash and he lost more time in the Prologue than I thought he should.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Stage 2, Tyler Farrar 33/1 1pt e/w 1/4 odds, 1,2,3 This price is reflective of Farrar's inability this season so far to win a sprint although he was a photo second in April to Kittel in the Scheldeprijs, amongst other top 3 finishes. He can beat Cavendish, notably on the 4th July stage of last year's Tour and if Cavendish as I suspect still needs a race or two to get into this race, this sprint is any ones. On their day they can and do beat each other, Cavendish is just that more consistent. I also think Garmin will want to win a sprint before the race starts proper and they turn to concentrating on their GC contenders which is their declared priority. Farrar has too much class to be let go on a price such as this. Matt Goss at 12s at best is also some value but I can't be having two bets. I think he's going to be using up energy going for the intermediates as well whereas Farrar won't be as he's not a serious Green Jersey contender.

[Darran]

I'm confused as to why you can't have two bets? I can see where your coming from but I'd be a little surprised if at least 3 sprinters didn't beat him as he has been in shocking form this year. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Still think Sagan will take the green. Cav will pull out after the 2nd week. The way the HC mountains are placed in the Tour this year means Sanchez won't win it. Martin or Taaramae for me. Today is laid out for the pure fast sprinters. I don't think Goss or Sagan can win this. One of Cavendish Kittel or Griepel for me. I think Cavendish price is too short and especially with no real leadout train. Greipel and Kittel will have full teams behind them. I'm going to go with Greipel 6/1 Corals. Has been in great form this year, should have a leadout train at the finish and has the raw speed to beat Cav. He just needs to be in the right position, which has been a failure of his in the past. 3pts e/w Greipel 6/1 Corals

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Money management really. I'd only have two bets if I was going for 2 small win bets or perhaps half a point each way on two of them. I could be tempted if I could secure 4/5 places rather than just 3. Hoping to see that at some point with cycling betting.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Well done those who got winners yesterday. Bit of a chaotic last 10km. Nothing really of interest today. I was looking at Goss last night but he's since come in from 12 to 10 so no bet there. Will have a double H2H to make the finish a bit more exciting though. Kittel v Cavendish (2.6 with Bet365) Petacchi v Farrar (2.3 with Bet365) Overall odds of 5.97 Cav's weight loss is well documented and it does seem to have drawn his sting a bit. Consistency but no wins in ZLM and we did see him get beaten by Guardini in the Giro by pure speed. I still wouldn't have Kittel as favourite, but his performances in ZLM might suggest the odds should be closer to 50/50. Both guys in the second pick have had poor seasons by their standards, but at least Petacchi (in his last year I believe) has shown some form by picking up 3 wins in the Bayern-Rundfahrt, whereas Farrar just seems to have totally lost his top end speed. There was talk over the winter about how he was gonna try and change so he could challenge in some of the classics, but we haven't seen any evidence of that either. Back to the drawing board I think.

[Darran]

By the way anyone who thinks cav will pull out should watch an interview with him on the itv website. He is pretty determined to get to Paris and wants to make it 4 wins in the final stage. He also wants to be there if Wiggins wins yellow. Everyone around him thinks he can ride the tour and then do the Olympics and plenty of other riders will be doing both. Only illness or injury will see him quit in my opinion. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Superb from Cav and I reckon that was one of if not his best stage win yet. Kittel had a stomach bug so that was why he was out the back, would be a shame if he cant continue. Proof for me Sagan is going to struggle on the flat sprints. Only 6th today and he was pretty easily beaten there. He will need to do much better to win green in my view.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 From what we've seen so far and this season, tomorrow's stage, stage 3, looks like Sagan's for the taking as well. Looks like a Classics course. As I type only PP have prices up. 7/2 Gilbert, 4/1 Evans, 15/2 Valverde and Sagan at 8s. That looks like an each way steal at 1/4 odds so I'm taking that. Can't imagine the other bookmakers will better that although I'll look silly if they do. No prices on Betfair as yet either. You'd have thought with as high profile as the Tour is, the various firms would have taken notice. Don't think compilers have the knowledge with cycling. Peter Sagan, 8/1, Paddy Power 2pt e/w, 1/4 odds, 1,2,3.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012

From what we've seen so far and this season, tomorrow's stage, stage 3, looks like Sagan's for the taking as well. Looks like a Classics course. As I type only PP have prices up. 7/2 Gilbert, 4/1 Evans, 15/2 Valverde and Sagan at 8s. That looks like an each way steel at 1/4 odds so I'm taking that. Can't imagine the other bookmakers will better that although I'll look silly if they do. No prices on Betfair as yet either. You'd have thought with as high profile as the Tour is, the various firms would have taken notice. Don't think compilers have the knowledge with cycling. Peter Sagan, 8/1, Paddy Power 2pt e/w, 1/4 odds, 1,2,3.

8s gone!!! Now 6. Can't believe it was little old me moving mountains although I did go 2pts each way rather than my usual single. If he wins, maybe I'll have my account restricted.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Illness strikes again, but I don't mind losing bets to Cav. Very impressive - though there's still a lot of hope there for the Gorilla and Goss over the next sprint stages. Eventually the lack of lead out/help will tell - probably on a more technical finish. 8 is a very good price for Sagan for tomorrow's stage - he's at 3 on Bet365. Gonna be another crazy finish tomorrow. It's difficult to tell the scale looking at the map of the finish, but it looks like there's a 60 degree left immediately followed by a 90 degree right just towards the bottom of the final climb. Going with Kiserlovski (301 ew with Bet365). As you say best mate, certainly the second half of the stage looks very classic-ish (Fleche Wallonne maybe where K was 5th) and it also reminds me a bit of some of the stages in Pais Vasco this year where Kiserlovski had some good placings behind the likes of J-Rod and Sammy Sanchez. Positioning will be vital on the finish km so that just might open the door to a big outsider.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

8s gone!!! Now 6. Can't believe it was little old me moving mountains although I did go 2pts each way rather than my usual single. If he wins' date=' maybe I'll have my account restricted.[/quote'] I saw this myself, he was 9/1 with Corals, i couldn't get on quick enough. It has been rectified now, best price 5/2.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 I probably would have got on at 8s if I had of seen it, but I have a feeling tomorrow's stage will be a lot less predictable than Sunday's stage. They certainly wont be getting to the last climb in a big group thats for sure and I reckon there will be more attacks.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Peter Velits @ 170 Betfair I rate Velits' ability on this kind of finish. He was 13th in the sprint yesterday on a flat stage yesterday which I think was him testing his legs a bit after a bad showing the day before. If his legs are good today I think he has the abilities to potentially surprise here. Will also look to get something on Bauke Mollema, was impressed with him on Stage 1 and think he might go on the attack today.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 I have gone for Mollema 50/1 with bet 365. I think he is overpriced, he looked strong on Sunday and competed for the sprint where Gilbert was the only one to beat him. Gerrans is my other bet 33/1 with PP. The last 20 k will suit his riding, he also finished in well on Sunday and can sprint as well. I think Gree Edge will be on the front going into the last climb and Gerrans could attack. 2pt se/w Mollema 50/1 bet 365 2pts e/w Gerrans 33/1 PP

[SteveO]

From what we've seen so far and this season, tomorrow's stage, stage 3, looks like Sagan's for the taking as well. Looks like a Classics course. As I type only PP have prices up. 7/2 Gilbert, 4/1 Evans, 15/2 Valverde and Sagan at 8s. That looks like an each way steal at 1/4 odds so I'm taking that. Can't imagine the other bookmakers will better that although I'll look silly if they do. No prices on Betfair as yet either. You'd have thought with as high profile as the Tour is, the various firms would have taken notice. Don't think compilers have the knowledge with cycling. Peter Sagan, 8/1, Paddy Power 2pt e/w, 1/4 odds, 1,2,3.

Wow what a tip that was. When I looked yesterday he was 15/8 fav with most firms. How easy did he make that look. Sent from my HTC Wildfire using PL Forum

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Not sure if there are adjustments to come but looks like Menchov lost 1'18 today and Froome a little over 2 minutes. Would think that they probably got caught up in the crash as that's a lot of time to lose otherwise?

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Sagan wasnt 8/1 for very long at all and Coral even went 9/1 but again not surprisingly it lasted even shorter. It was just a case of a bookmaker making a right cock up. Well done to those who got on. Looks like Menchov has lost a lot of time today.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Froome was involved in the crash, he apparently nearly eneded up going over the railings in the finish.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I thought I'd got it wrong first of all when I saw today's route yesterday and then saw the 8/1. This has to go down as one of the all time compiling ricks. Cycling and betting are still in their infancy compared to other sports and they're going to be situations such as this. We were lucky yesterday as it's difficult to gauge when firms put their prices up for the next day's stage. Let's see if they're going to be anymore steals as the days progress.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Is that all favourites have now come in, from the Prologue onwards? Cancellara/Saga/Cavendish/Sagan.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Yep 4/4 winning stage favs so far. Cycling betting isnt really in its infancy, its been around for a few years now especially on the Tour. Hard to see where they went wrong and you can be sure they wont make the same mistake twice. Cav should be fav tomorrow I would imagine.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Maybe infancy was the wrong word to use. It certainly not as sophisticated bookwise as other sports where compilers have a lot more information to go on and a lot more time to price up. In stage races, decisions have to be made quickly at about this time so firms can get prices out there as punters want to bet once they're home from work. I've got to go against Cavendish again tomorrow, suspect he'lll be close to Evens, probably Greipel if I can get a price. They don't come much flatter than tomorrow. Maybe some firms will cut Sagan believing he could still be a threat here, I don't think he will, which give us some value on the others. Now Rojas is out, we have few sprinters realistically left. JJ Haedo/Mark Renshaw/Matt Goss. I've never forgotten that comment Mark Cavendish made I think a year ago now, that Matt Goss was the only other sprinter he feared.