Cycling 2012

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Alexandre Vinokourov to win King of the Mountains @ 51 Bet365 When the Kazak first made his return from a doping suspension he intimated that as he was no longer capable of winning the Tour, that maybe he would go after the KOTM Jersey. Looking at this year's stages and the dynamics of the GC and his team, I can't see why not. Brajkovic will be Astana's GC leader, but he's not good enough to podium, so they wont put all their eggs in the Jani basket. Once more, Vino is the genesis of the Astana team, and he will definitely have free reign to pursue his ambitions, and in general he's a pretty selfish rider IMO. He has already come out this year and stated his goal is to win a stage in the Pyrenees -- if that is the case, and he succeeds, he will likely pick up a number of polka points on the way, and the jersey would then become a possibility, which I think he would then go after. Looking at the favourites, there's a number of riders who have a big KOTM history or have stated the KOTM as their goal this year. Daniel Martin has been tipped by his Sporting Director to go after the prize -- ditto Chris Anker Sorensen. Moncoutie is a perennial in this market also along with a number of the big name favourites. Given the small number of mountain top finishes this year though, I think it's harder to see a big GC name winning the polka prize as there's less scope for them to be able to fall into it. This helps Vino, as well as the fact that he is still quite a powerful rider. He might not be able to compete for the GC anymore, but I think in the context of contesting a few summit sprints each day, his abilities will still serve him well.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 For those wondering, this is the article that quotes Vino prior to his return from doping: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1338/Vinokourov-set-for-comeback.aspx

[Bardach]

Re: Cycling 2012 Hi, what do you think about R. Hesjedal chances for top10. Odds are nice for this - 3.00. Hesjedal will be leader of probably strongest team in TDF 2012. With help from Vande Velde, Danielson and Martin Hesjedal can do a lot this year. He improved time trialling which will be important this year with two long TT and prologue at the beginning. This year only 3 finishes at the mountain tops, so there should be a lot of attacks. IMO it's good for Hesjedal, which will have great help from the team. Important thing is his ability to recover after fighting in another great tour. Cases from history shows that's really hard, Contador last year, Basso few times. With Contador was a bit another story, because he had in mind clenbuterol scandal and WADA verdict so it may affect on his mind also. Another thing is with Taaramae, he'll be a leader of his team, maybe Cofidis isn't as good as Garmin, BMC or so, but Taaramae is one of the best time trialist in tour. He already won championship in Estonia in ITT. Last year he was 11th, so I belive that he improved this year. Other thing is that, route this year will be better for him with two ITT and only 3 finishes on mountain tops. Odds for him in top10 are on 6.50, which represents some value.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Hi' date=' what do you think[/quote'] I dunno really about Hesjedal, as you point out it has been historically difficult to do well in both the Giro and Tour. If I was playing devil's advocate I would point out that he's had ~50 days of racing so far this year (roughly double that of Evans for example) and maybe question whether his TT is that good in comparison to the guys he will face in the Tour (the Giro TT field was very weak). However having said all that it wouldn't surprise me if he and Danielson were somewhere around the top ten, the confidence alone from winning the Giro must be worth a few places. Fingers crossed anyway, I've always got a soft spot for any rider who's made me money in the past. One thing about Taaramae, you probably knew already, is that he had glandular fever diagnosed back in mid-March. Unfortunately he hasn't been updating his blog recently so I'm not sure how he thinks his recovery is going and whether his prep has been affected (or is it effected) much by it. His Estonian TT win might suggest though that he's going to be in decent shape. One more thing. Saturday can't come quick enough. I can't wait.

[Darran]

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Nice write up addpea - some good points in there. My post is going to seem quite inadequate after it though. Prices are up for the prologue on Saturday. Unfortunately with Martin/Spartacus/Wiggins all riding there doesn't seem to be much point putting any bets on the to win or each way market. Will watch the weather forecast though and see if rain might play a part - that'll prolly be the only hope of anyone else getting a top 3 spot. Going to have a H2H double though with two picks which slightly jumped out at me. Kloden v Millar (2.3 with Bet365) Lancaster v Gerrans (2.3 with Bet365) Small stakes at overall odds of 5.28 Normally I would have Millar as favourite for the first match-up but he is a bit under the weather, missed the team presentation today. He will be "ok" for Saturday I'm sure, but it's hardly ideal prep especially after missing so much of the year through injury. As for the second part of the bet, although Gerrans is a great rider, I just don't have him down as a good TTer/prologuer - I think the odds are being affected by his 6th place in the Dauphine prologue where he was lucky to get the best of the early dry conditions. Whereas Lancaster for example had a 7th place in the short initial TT in the Giro. Let's just hope it stays dry.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Cheers Leadbelly. Lets hope its a profitable Tour for us all.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 These are my thoughts on the top. I think these are all over priced. Just looking at the top 10 market, there is some riders that interest me at fancy odds.Lieuwa Westra at 14/1 with bet 365. He is a very good TTist and can climb as well. He finished 2nd in Paris- Nice this year and looks to have good form. He will also be the team leader of his team so won't have anyone to ride for. Juan Jose Cobo is another that could be over priced 14/1 with bet 365 and Ladbrokes. He won the Tour of Spain last year, he is a great climber and useful enough TTist. His form hasn't been great this year, but he is, but we are told he is saving himself for this, so should go close for a top 10. Tony Martin at 8/1 also interests me. He is the best TTist on his day and should get about 4 minutes advantage in the TT over his other rivals for the top 10. He always has a bad day in the mountains where he can lose a lot of time, but his form has been very good this year and the lack of any major climbs at the end of the stages really benefits him. 8/1 could be massive. Tom Danielson at 5/2 is a steal. I'd have him closer to even money. A brilliant TTist, can climb with the best of them . he finished 9th in last years Tour and his form has been excellent finshing 7th in the Tour de Swisse. Chris Froome at 10/11 with Ladbrokes is another steal. Again i'd have this at 1/2 or more. He came 2nd in the Veulta last year, is an excellent TTist. He has shown great form this year with 4th in the Dauphine. He is Wiggins right hand man which is a bonus. He is also a great climber and will be in the top 10. 1pt win Westra top 10 14/1 lad, bet 365 1pt win Cobo 14/1 lad, bet 365 1.5 pts win, Martin top 10 8/1 bet 365 5 pts Danielson top 10, 5/2 888 sport/ blue square 8 pts Froome 10/11 with Lad

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 My question with Martin is surely he is going to want to be in prime shape for the Olympics so how hard is he really going to go during the mountains? Also he hasnt exactly been in the best of form this year.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 There was another short snippet of news about Vinokourov today, intimating that he might try and win the KOTM jersey like Virenque. He's still available at 51s in a few places and I've piled in for some more.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 It's a shame more riders don't try for the KOTM, but I guess you probably get more WT points for finishing 20th in the GC than winning the polka dot jersey. People like Nico Roche (for example) should be going for it I feel, surely he'd get more career satisfaction out of challenging for the KOTM and maybe winning a stage or two than trailing in 15 minutes down and 17th in the final GC. Maybe it's something the UCI should look at.

[Darran]

It's about if they are capable or not though. It used to be if you got in a break but at least last year it went to a proper climber. Vino may well say he is going to try and win it but got to be highly doubtful he has got it in his legs especially as he isn't on drugs anymore. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012

It's about if they are capable or not though. It used to be if you got in a break but at least last year it went to a proper climber. Vino may well say he is going to try and win it but got to be highly doubtful he has got it in his legs especially as he isn't on drugs anymore. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

Last year there were a lot more mountain stages, and more of them were Mountain Top Finishes of HC climbs. This year it's a lot different -- look at Stage 11 - Two HC climbs before a final cat 1 climb. If a big climber wins the stage, they will get double points on that climb - so 20 instead of 10. If a breakaway guy wins the 2 HC climbs beforehand, he gets 40 points. Same deal on Stage 16. The stages aren't set up for a climber to win it the same way they were set up last year. I don't believe there are even any stages with a HC climb as the final climb, so this year it's not even possible for a big climber to score double points on a HC climb -- which is exactly how Sanchez won it last year. Which isn't at all to say that a GC rider can't or wont win it, but if you look at the profiles it's clear that it's not as advantageous to be 1st or 2nd up the final climb of the stage as it was last year.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Pretty confident that one of Martin, Cancellara, Wiggins or Sagan will win tonight. Not too happy to pick who so not going with much, but have found one I think offers a bit of value: Edvald Boasson Hagen to Finish Top 3 @ 17 Betfair It's only a 6.4km prologue so sprinter types who can time trial a bit can often surprise in these type of prologues (Hushovd won a prologue a few years back in the Tour). As I said, I expect one of the big four favs to win, but given the short distance in play here and the fact that the big two (Martin, Cancellara) have had some form and injury concerns this year, I think a Top 3 is a possibility. I'd expected 8-10s for this, so 17 offers a shade of value in my eyes.

[benerop]

Re: Cycling 2012 prologue today prologue today what do you think of this bet guys: winning stage [email protected] bwin:cigar

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 I can't see Sagan reproducing his Swisse win. The course is too short for Wiggins. It is between Martin and Cancellara. I think Cancellara will do it. The course suits him perfectly. 2/1 is not a bad price. Kessiakoff at 100/1 with Hills is way overpriced. He finished 5th in a similar prolugue in the Tour de Swisse and won the final TT. He is in great form and could surprise here. 7pt win Cancellera 2/1 Hills, PP 1PT e/w Kessiakoff 100/1 Hills 1/4 first 3.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Last year there were a lot more mountain stages, and more of them were Mountain Top Finishes of HC climbs. This year it's a lot different -- look at Stage 11 - Two HC climbs before a final cat 1 climb. If a big climber wins the stage, they will get double points on that climb - so 20 instead of 10. If a breakaway guy wins the 2 HC climbs beforehand, he gets 40 points. Same deal on Stage 16. The stages aren't set up for a climber to win it the same way they were set up last year. I don't believe there are even any stages with a HC climb as the final climb, so this year it's not even possible for a big climber to score double points on a HC climb -- which is exactly how Sanchez won it last year. Which isn't at all to say that a GC rider can't or wont win it, but if you look at the profiles it's clear that it's not as advantageous to be 1st or 2nd up the final climb of the stage as it was last year.

You might be right and like I say it used to be something I wouldnt go near for betting purposes as it had become a lottery. Im sure one of the winners recently wasnt even in the betting at the start. Still last year it went back to normal so Im willing to have a small interest. I also think if any of the climbers want to actually win the Tour they are going to have to go on the attack.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 As for today I really cant make up my mind. Fab and Martin havent been in the best of form so you have that question mark over them. Im tempted to back Wiggins each-way as he could easily win and I can see him being in the first three. At the same time though margins will be tight so maybe one to leave alone.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

I can't see Sagan reproducing his Swisse win. The course is too short for Wiggins. It is between Martin and Cancellara. I think Cancellara will do it. The course suits him perfectly. 2/1 is not a bad price. Kessiakoff at 100/1 with Hills is way overpriced. He finished 5th in a similar prolugue in the Tour de Swisse and won the final TT. He is in great form and could surprise here. 7pt win Cancellera 2/1 Hills, PP 1PT e/w Kessiakoff 100/1 Hills 1/4 first 3.

Cancellara does the business with ease. My speculative bet on Kessiakoff was not to be well down the field

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Went with Wiggins e/w in the end and it was a massive ride from him to finish 2nd. I think he was the only rider who gained on time on the 2nd half of the course. Great ride from Fab though and to win by 7 seconds is some effort. Shame we never got to see what Martin would have done and always hard to tell how much time he truely lost. Sagan showed his lack of experience for me as well as he got one of the corners badly wrong which cost him time. Crucially for Wiggins everyone is playing catch up now and some of the climbers lost a fair bit of time to him.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Martin was only 1 second down on Cancellara at the only split. The 2nd half of the course would have suited him as well. He would have got 3rd. A big day for Wiggins tomorrow, he won't like the finish and Evans, JVDB, Nibali should get the time back tomorrow if they put the hammer down.

[Darran]

I think Martin would have been 2nd at worse. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Wiggins Tour to lose now. He's going to use his time trial advantage to keep edging out a gap. Going to need someone of the other favourites to do something special over the climbs. While Wiggins is too short to consider backing, at around the 6/4 mark, I'm struggling to find anyone else who will be able to match not only him but also his very able army of Sky lieutenants. Only if Sky get depleted which is not unusual in Grand Tours. Think the value left lies around stage wins for the likes of Rolland, Dan Martin & perhaps Menchov who impressed today.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Millar beats Kloden by one second to spoil my double. Prices are up for stage one now. Tricky little finish tomorrow. The profile on the official site doesn't really tell the full story I think, it looks like quite a bit of a drag up to the finish. Sagan is the obvious pick, but there are plenty of other fish in the sea - I just have this feeling one of the Greenedge boys might sneak it, but I'm going with Westra (126 ew with Bet365). Had a decent prologue today and has a good kick in an uphill sprint (for a non-sprinter). The finish tomorrow reminds me a bit of a stage in Paris-Nice where he finished 3rd, so if he can be patient and not go too early he might stand a chance.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Stage 1, Edvald Boasson Hagen, 11/1 Boylesports 1pt ew 1/4 odds, 1,2,3 Yes he's got the powerhouse that is Peter Sagan to beat but he's done nothing wrong this year and has been picking up stages when he's not riding for his Sky team mates, including recently at the Dauphine. Sky will want to spread it around amongst the team during the tour and Boasson Hagen has as good as a chance as Gilbert although he's double the price. I think the bookies have overreacted to Sagan's exploits and I think he'll get found out here, in what is a much higher quality field. 11/1 for a rider of Boasson Hagan's talents in a stage that is sure to suit him is good each way value. Gilbert at and around 4/1, a price I think that's contracted because he's on home turf, not for what he's done this year. Sagan has to be taken on at that price. Boyles are a standout at 11s, he's 8/9s generally although Paddy power have now put him at 10s.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Wiggins Tour to lose now. He's going to use his time trial advantage to keep edging out a gap. Going to need someone of the other favourites to do something special over the climbs. While Wiggins is too short to consider backing, at around the 6/4 mark, I'm struggling to find anyone else who will be able to match not only him but also his very able army of Sky lieutenants. Only if Sky get depleted which is not unusual in Grand Tours. Think the value left lies around stage wins for the likes of Rolland, Dan Martin & perhaps Menchov who impressed today.

Menchov wont win sod all as its not his style to do anything apart from ride on the wheels. However like you I was impressed and he might have a better Tour than I thought and suddenly I think he could get a top 5 finish.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Taken small e/w bets on Fab at 33s (he will want to stay in yellow, is clearly in good form at the moment and is capable on a stage like this of hitting the frame), Evans at 40s (watched the DVD highlights of last years Tour the other night and he was very good on this type of stage. He will be looking to gain time on Wiggins after today and could easily be bang up there) and Boasson Hagen at 11s (same reasons as Best Mate above). Tempted to cover my stakes on Gilbert as he impressed me today and looks like his form is coming back and I have Goss covered in my green jersey bet. Sagan was 11/4 to start with and that might have tempted me but at 2/1 in his first ever Tour stage I will take him on. He showed today that his experience could be an issue this Tour. If he wins he wins and hopefully I might have 1 or 2 of my bets in behind him.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Not keen to get that involved tonight. Sagan an obvious favourite but don't particularly want to trust him at those odds. Small dabble on a couple of outsiders: Matthew Goss @ 34 Betfair Think this is a profile that could really suit him. The finish looks like it might be more of a false flat than an uphill sprint, which could swing things towards him and away from a guy like Gilbert. Sagan still favourite I'd think but he isn't experienced in Grand Tours and I think the odds here are acceptable. Michael Albasini @ 51 Bet365 Has been in great form this year and think he's a tad overpriced here. I expect Goss and Gerrans to be the "marked" threats for Orica GreenEdge, so wouldn't surprise me if Albasini were to go on the attack, allowing the other two to mark his counter attacks. Alexander Vinokourov @ 90 Betfair Can definitely see him launching an attack on the uphill part of this finish. Not overly likely to succeed but he's won LBL and think these odds are too long. Marcel Kittel E/W 1/4 1-2-3 @ 251 Bet365 This is probably going to be really stupid at the end of the stage, but for me, I don't quite know enough about Kittel to dismiss his chances of making it up the finish. I do know he's a very fast sprinter though, so will pay to see just because the odds are so big.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Sagan should be winning this but the odds are not great. If there aren't attacks at the foot of the last climb, it looks between Sagan, Goss and EBH, but the prices reflect that. I agree with Crouch potato on Goss and Vino and have them backed as well. I think Chavanel has a great chance today, he is in good form and he will attack to try and get the yellow today, the 40/1 with bet 365 is very tempting. LL Sanchez is my other bet 50/1 with PP. The finish should suit as it is a false flat towards the finish and if he can attack form a bit out, he could go close. Kittel has no chance Crouch, he wouldn't get over a bump in the road. 2251/ probably reflects his chances better. 2 pts e/w Chavanel 40/1 PP 2pts e/w LL Sanchez 50/1 pp 1.5 pts e/w Vino 66/1 SJ 2.5 PTS E/W Goss 28/1 VC.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Seems to be a suggestion that the sprinters might be able to cope as there is a bit of flat on the climb so if they can hang on then they might be in with a chance. Ive covered Cav at 33/1. I reckon he might be able to get up a climb like this and he could spring a bit of a surprise here.